Turn a Negative Into A Positive With This X Factor Bet

| September 8, 2011 | Reply

The X Factor is back…

Yeah, I know, it upset me too.

Maybe it’s just nostalgia but I’m sure that Saturday night tele used to be quite good…

Now, it’s just an endless shower of sh**e.

Just when Britain’s (Not) Got Talent finishes and you think you’re safe, the X Factor rears its ugly head again…

It’s like a recurring nightmare in which Phil Neville is chasing you down a dark corridor and, just when you think you’ve escaped, out pops Gary with his stupid moustache, wearing an I <3 United t-shirt.


Well, maybe that’s just me but the point is I don’t much like the X Factor…

And the point within the point is that just because you don’t like something, it doesn’t mean that you can’t make money from it.

Thus, back ‘The Keys’ to win the X Factor at 12/1 with Blue Square, Bet Victor or William HillWilliam Hill Sports.

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Thinking outside the box

When looking at trends it can be tempting to ignore the negative ones and concentrate on the positives.

For example, you might look at Andy Carroll failing to score in his first three Premier League games and write him off your list of potential goalscorer bets…

And you might look at Wayne Rooney scoring in all three of his Premier league games and decide to take a punt on him to score in his next match.

Now that’s a reasonable logic but, in betting, logic isn’t enough, in fact, it’s not nearly enough.

After all, the bookies will also have spotted the trends and they will have priced up accordingly…

Indeed for Man United’s next match, Rooney is a best price 21/20 to score anytime, while Andy Carroll (who scored more League goals than Rooney last year) is a best priced 9/4 to score in his next match…

Not so clear cut now is it?

While Rooney may well get more goals than Carroll this year, there is no doubt (injuries permitting) that Carroll will find his name on the score sheet at regular intervals, so in this case, it may be that the best bet is actually Carroll.

All of which highlights the usefulness of a negative trend – something which I’m looking to apply to our X Factor bet.

The reasoning is as so…

The X Factor has never had a ‘group’ winner and there is no logical reason for this, given the continued popularity of mediocre pop groups in the UK…

In fact I would go as far as to say that, due to the producers wanting to keep the show fresh (HA!), they would actually prefer a group to win it this year, thus making the possibility even more likely…

Therefore, the inflated odds on a group winner (brought about due to the negative trend) make for good betting value.

Now, you can just back a group to win the contest at 4/1 (Sky Bet) but for those of us that are forced to sit and watch the god forsaken thing week in, week out I thought I’d cook up something more meaty…

That something are ‘The Keys’ who, based on their audition, are a shoo in for the final 10 (or whatever it is) and are comfortably the best group in the competition.

At 12/1 then, you are essentially getting treble the odds on much the same bet.

The keys knees

Right then, how have I come up with ‘The Keys’ when I don’t even like the show?

Quite simply, I’ve followed my reality winner checklist, which I’ve based on the opinions of a typical X Factor voter…

Attractive (because good looks equal good music)…


Young (old people are boring)…


Mixed ethnic backgrounds (it is the 21st century after all)…


Male (pretty young women in girl bands are obviously slags)…


See, four ticks, they can’t lose.

Finally, it’s worth noting that they actually seem to be mildly talented (relatively speaking) and there’s a bit more going on than the standard Boyzone esque melodic dross (there’s a bit of rap and all sorts!)

With that in mind, the non-typical X Factor voters may also warm to them and, when you add that to the traditional lack of competition in the group category, I’ll be amazed if they fail to make the final four.

I may not be able to save you from your wife, girlfriend or gay housemate’s desire to watch the programme every Saturday night between now and Christmas but I can make it at least a little more entertaining…

Just back ‘The Keys’ to win X Factor at 12/1 with Blue Square, Bet Victor and William HillWilliam Hill Sports.

Oh and if you don’t watch the show (lucky you) and do want to watch their audition (really?!), you can do so here.



Category: Betting Tips

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