Strike Gold With This Top Scorer Bet

| January 21, 2011 | 6 Replies

Top scorer bets are one of my absolute favourites in the world of football betting.

The reason being is that prices are often pushed out as literally any footballer in the relevant division could win the prize.

Obviously there are plenty that have no realistic chance…

Goalkeepers for instance…

Or Emile Heskey.

But there are enough contenders to ensure that there is never a really hot favourite and there are ALWAYS some cracking outsiders.

The Premier League is a case in point…

It may be past the half way stage but there is still some great value to be had.

And that’s exactly why I’m advising two bets.

First, back Carlos Tevez to be the Premier League top scorer at 5/2 with Stan James

And then back Fernando Torres each-way (with twice the Tevez stake) in the same market at 25/1 with , Stan James or William HillWilliam Hill Sports.

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Each-way intricacies

Right, listen up – this is important!

Because they like to be awkward for no good reason, different bookmakers offer very different terms regarding their each- way bets.

In this particular market the terms range from 1/3 the odds for two places to 1/5 the odds for three places.

This is why we need to be specific in our choice of bookmaker for the Torres bet.

, Stan James and William HillWilliam Hill Sports are all currently offering the 25/1 with each-way terms of 1/4 the odds for three places.

I’m going to advise twice your Tevez stake on this bet, so if you back Tevez with £10, back Torres with a total of £20…

This will then be split by the each-way bet, with £10 going on the win part at 25/1 and £10 going on the place part at 1/4 the odds (7.25).

I believe that this price at these terms is the best available.

You can back Torres at 33/1 with Bet Victor but the each-way terms only cover two places and I believe that the Spaniard has a significantly better chance of finishing 3rd than he has of coming 2nd.

By placing the Torres bet in addition to the Tevez one, we are also adding a hedging element to our bet…

Should Tevez win the golden boot and Torres finish outside the top three, we make an overall profit of half a point…

Should Tevez fail and Torres place, we make just over four points profit…

Should Tevez win and Torres place, we make just under eight points profit…

And should Torres win the golden boot we make a huge 30 point profit!

100’s of possibles, just three probables

The Premier League has been nothing if not unpredictable this year, with few of the usual big guns firing.

This applies to the clubs to a certain extent but more so to the strikers.

Drogba has looked old and tired…

Torres looked a ghost of his former self in the first half of the season…

Van Persie has spent large spells on the sidelines through injury (although that’s not a surprise in the slightest)…

And Rooney, well, as far as I can tell, the most likely scenario is that he is currently locked in a cupboard while his evil (and completely useless) twin brother takes to the field for Manchester United.

All of this has left us with two players at the top of the tree when it comes to goals – Dimitar Berbatov and Carlos Tevez, who both have 14.

They’re followed by a host of Golden Boot no hopers like Kevin Nolan and Tim Cahill, with Fernando Torres currently back on seven.

We’ll start with our first selection Carlos Tevez…

Quite simply, when he’s not bitching and moaning Tevez looks unstoppable this season.

The goals are showing no signs of drying up and I can see him comfortably outscoring the hit and miss Dimitar Berbatov between now and May.

The Argentine also has a good fitness record and with that in mind, the top scorer gong looks his to lose.

That is, providing Torres doesn’t start to motor.

The Liverpool number nine has looked a man transformed under Kenny Dalglish and has already scored against Blackpool and caused Everton all sorts of problems.

He is the one man with a strike rate that can catch Tevez and Berbatov, having already hit an incredible 63 goals in 88 starts for his club.

With Liverpool looking a far more attacking outfit under Dalglish and with Ajax hotshot Luis Suarez reportedly on the verge of joining (and adding much needed support up top), Torres could really start to shine.

I believe 25/1 represents decent value for top spot but the real plus is the 7.25 for the place part of our bet.

Torres is currently just four goals off third place Andy Carroll and if he stays fit, I would expect him to bridge the gap in the next few weeks.

So, with all that in mind it’s time to place your bets!

Back Carlos Tevez to top score in the Premier League at 5/2 with Stan James (9/4 elsewhere)…

And back Fernando Torres each-way (with twice your Tevez stake) at 25/1 with , Stan James or William HillWilliam Hill Sports.


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Category: Betting Tips

Comments (6)

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  1. Tim says:

    Nice tip, started strong on weekend when Torres scored two, shame though that Tevez did not score and Berbatov scored three. I still think this is a goodun, as you are right that Berbatov will score too hit and miss, he scores three one week then goes goaless for two months

  2. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Well that was my thinking Tim. Berbatov’s scored 11 of his goals this season in just three matches, whereas Tevez is much more consistent.

    Very good news with Torres as we only need him to finish in the top three to make a profit. He’s now just two goals behind Andy Carroll in third and could get a few more with Liverpool at home to Fulham on Wednesday night.

  3. Wayne says:

    Hi Matt

    I know these bets are the ones the bookies love us to make but I think at this stage of the season its less risky so I put a bet on Man U and Tevez to be Premier winners and top goal scorer and i got 5/1

    Do you think this is good value?



  4. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Wayne,

    I can see where you’re coming from and it’s not a bad idea. Man Utd certainly look good things for the title right now and you can always lay off Utd or Tevez if one is struggling come May.

    I do think there’s a place for multiples providing you don’t go overboard – a double or a treble can turn into a very nice earner but if you start backing 15 team accumulators, you’re going to struggle!

    Did you also back Torres each-way? That could turn into a very good bet as it will give us a good profit even if Tevez fails.


  5. Wayne says:

    Hi Matt

    Yes I got the Torres bet on, did it on the friday and whats even better news is if the rumours are correct is that Carroll will be out for 2 months too.

    The only thing about Torres is his injury record and thats the only thing that will let us down


  6. Henry says:

    Another one going very well Matt, Tevez is now only one behind Berbatov with 18 goals (Berbatov-19) and Torres is only a couple of goals away from Carroll, so it now looks most likely that Tevez will be top goalscorer and Torres should place, with his move to Chelsea.

    Great job! That’s one of the things I like about your blog/email – it’s not just a basic tip on Tevez to be top goalscorer, you provide a further angle with the Torres ‘hedging’ and actually state your reasoning for the bet.

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