Six Easy Ways To Become More Profitable

| January 9, 2018 | Reply

Hello all and a belated happy New Year!

Those of you who have read the initial review of The Football Guru might be interested to know that he is currently over nine points up for month two on the back of a four-out-of-five Saturday last weekend. JPW Racing Tipster is also making significant strides to recover the loss from the first month of his trial with 14.75 points profit so far in month two.

Remember to check back regularly for updates on our ongoing trials, and to follow our new ones.

Chris

The psychology of successful betting

Much recent research has focused, understandably, on the reasons behind problem gambling and how to tackle it. However, while this is an issue that I’m sure all of us want to see addressed, it does take the spotlight away somewhat from the psychology of successful gambling. If you are interested in reading some exceptional research in the field of problem gambling, and strategies for its avoidance and minimisation, then I can recommend the work of Dr Sally Gainsbury.

In this article however, I want to focus on the psychology of the successful gambler. To be successful at anything in life requires the right mindset and gambling is no different. Here are my top six behavioural traits you need to succeed as a gambler.

  1. Know Your Market

To be successful you need to understand your niche. That doesn’t just mean horse racing or football, it means English League 1 and 2, or Class 6 and 7 on the all-weather. With the advances in data collection and analysis it is getting harder and harder to find an edge over the bookies. Focussing on a niche area gives you the best chance of long-term success.

If you do want to spread your involvement across multiple markets, then you should seriously think about using reputable tipsters to man your portfolio. If you spend time researching and analysing tipsters to find the best, they will be applying the same amount of effort and focus in their area that you are in yours.

  1. Avoid the “Gambler’s Fallacy”

There is a well-known psychological process whereby a person standing at a roulette table and seeing seven red numbers come up in a row will automatically assume that the chances of a black number coming up next are increased. This is also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy after the iconic event which gave rise to the paradox. In reality the chance of a black number coming up next is unaltered.

The reason the odds remain unaltered is that each spin of the roulette wheel is an independent event and unaffected by what has gone before. This same logic can be applied to your sports betting. Say Liverpool have lost four games in a row, just because the team is on a losing streak doesn’t mean the chances they will win their next game are increased.

Unfortunately, a gambler’s chance of winning their next bet is also approximately what their historical winning percentage is regardless of whether they are on a winning or losing streak. The best way to avoid the Gambler’s Fallacy is to ensure you understand the difference between independent and dependent events.

  1. Be Disciplined

No gambler, no system, can win 100% of the time. What a professional gambler looks for is long-term profitability. So, anybody who wants to win long-term needs to get in the right mindset. This means working hard, being committed and controlling your emotions.

Work hard at understanding and analysing your chosen niche and learn from the best. Read books, articles and blogs by successful gamblers in your chosen sphere and pick out the nuggets of wisdom you can adopt. If you really want to succeed, work hard to understand the mechanics of the betting industry and the use of statistics and statistical tools. This isn’t for everyone but can add an extra edge to your betting.

Always remain committed to your strategy. One of the key tools within a gambler’s strategy is their staking plan. Staking plans can be as mundane as level-stake 1-point bets, or as aggressive as the Labouchere system. But whichever you chose, the key to long-term success is discipline, sticking to your plan. You don’t increase your stakes above the plan when things are going well, and you don’t reduce them when things are going badly…

We will come back to staking plans in a later article as some of the more exuberant plans can deliver huge wins, but at the risk of probable bankruptcy!

Never gamble when tired or drunk, always make rational decisions about your next bet. If you’re not 100% focussed you will make wrong decisions and cost yourself £££’s. However, if you are 100% focussed, have a strategy and are in control of your emotions then winning becomes a much more likely outcome.

Finally, don’t get carried away with success. Enjoy it, learn from it, fine tune your selection process on the back of it… but never let your ego think you’ve made it. We will talk about the losing runs which will inevitably follow below.

  1. Exercise Good Financial Management

To be successful in gambling you need to treat your betting as a small business and one of the keys to a successful business is good financial management.

The first step is to record every bet you make as you should be able to answer the question “How much profit did you make last week/month/year?” at any time. If you operate a portfolio of different services, then record each one separately so you can see which is performing well and which may be in need of an overhaul…

As I believe this is so crucial to good financial management, I would be happy to share my recording spreadsheet with anyone who is interested. Just email bettingrant@agorapub.co.uk. It’s simple to use but gives you all the pertinent data.

All businesses need working capital to survive and in the case of a gambler this is their betting bank. Your initial betting bank should comprise the amount of money you are willing to risk to make profit from your betting. The aim should be to see consistent growth in your bank.

Many of the strategies for managing a betting bank have their roots in the world of finance, and trading in particular. There isn’t space to go into all the various options available here today, but one of the most widely adopted is The Kelly Criterion, or one of the variants thereof – Full Kelly, Fractional Kelly, Constant Kelly…

Suffice to say at this point that, like staking plans, there are a wide range of options and the one you select will be dictated by your long-term strategy, your financial goals and your attitude to risk.

  1. Deal with Losing Runs

All gamblers, from the pros to the weekend recreational bettor, will experience losing runs. The length of those runs will vary, and there is an excellent article by Kieran at makeyourbettingpay.com that calculates the longest expected run per 1,000 bets at any given strike rate. At a fairly healthy strike rate of 60%, you can still expect to hit a losing run of eight, but there will also be multiple losing streaks of five, six or seven as well.

Losing runs will naturally lead to self-doubt and one needs to avoid “recency bias”. That is, overemphasising the impact of recent results in relation to the performance over a longer period. Having good financial records will help you put the losing run into context.

The key to dealing with losing runs is not to chase your losses. Remain consistent with your strategy, especially if historical results are good. If necessary take a break and review your strategy, look at your niche, your selection process, your betting bank, your staking plan, and be honest with yourself. If your current strategy really isn’t working then look to change. Maybe you haven’t devoted as much time to researching your bets as you had planned, if that’s the case consider using a reputable tipster service.

  1. Find and Exploit Value

Realistically, finding and exploiting the value bets is the only way to make long-term profit from betting. Because this is so central to being a successful gambler, I am going to devote the entire next article to this subject.

Look out for the “Finding and Exploiting Value” article coming soon.

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