Roger Redfearn’s Lay Line Review

| July 20, 2011 | Reply

Product Name: Roger Redfearn’s Lay Line

Company Name & Contact Details:
Surewin Betting Club
PO Box 2,
S71 1BR

Price: £40 per month to join Surewin which will include access to this system. No minimum length commitment

Money Back Guarantee: None

What Do You Get?

–  Membership of Surewin allows access to many systems and tipping lines plus automatic inclusion in a UK Lottery Syndicate. This system was made available to members in December 2010

Where To Buy:

Brief Summary:

Roger Redfearn’s Lay Line is a lay tipping service for UK racing. Tips are available from around 1pm daily and can be accessed by telephone (0844 number) or through the members area of the Surewin website.

How Much Money Do I Need To Get Started? 

A 100 point bank suggested – normal stake is 5 points.

How Much Money Can I Make?  

80% strike rate to date with 123 point profit. 7 points profit in trial period based on 20 point bank.

How Much Time Will I Need To Make This Work?

5 minutes daily.

Will I Need Any Equipment To Do This? 

PC and Internet connection plus betting exchange account.

Value For Money?  

The club subscription offers good value. This system is recommended.

Quality Of Customer Service?  

Surewin generally good on this aspect.

Interim Review 05/08/2011

As a lay service this initially seems to tick most of the boxes – simple to operate, good strike rate and low odds for qualifying selections plus a sensible staking recommendation.

Accessing the selections is easy via phone or internet and the one question I had was answered within 24 hours by Surewin admin.

Subscribers will be able to access the daily selection (should there be any) by 1pm at the latest but in practice they have been available mid morning during the trial period.

Up to 3 selections have been seen on any one day and the maximum lay odds that should be accepted are 6.5.

With a strike rate to date of 93% this has shown a fair return thus far with a 5 point profit in 2 weeks.

The service recommendation is that you should limit your liability to 5% of your bank on any one bet and this has worked well to date. There have been 29 selections of which 27 have lost their race.

I was also impressed that the results disclosed on the Surewin site ignored horses where the BSP is outside the parameters stated (4 to 6.5) even though my enquiry elicited the advice that as long as the lay price was within the parameters when the tip is received it can be placed.

I am recording the BSP for information purposes and there have been 3 instances where the price finished up outside the limits but in each case the lay was still successful.

I would suggest that Lay betting is even more about confidence than backing and should this service continue as has been seen thus far it will be receiving a recommendation and the possibility of putting my money where my mouth is.

Review 18/08/2011

The service has continued to perform during the second half of the trial and the strike rate is 91% for the full month.

With the maximum lay rate of 6.0 in place this is good enough to show a good profit and the maximum liability of 5% of the bank on each selection has worked well – readers will appreciate that the spreadsheet is based on a starting bank of £500 but in practice you would need to assume a larger figure as Betfair will only allow a minimum liability bet of £10 at the time of writing.

Full details are given in the spreadsheet – I have included races where the lay odds were available at the time of placing the bet even though the BSP may have been outside the limit. There has been one occasion where waiting for the BSP would have resulted in a saved losing lay.

Although there is nothing more than the tip advice daily the service has a professional air to it and has operated as advised during the trial. I plan to keep monitoring for at least a further month and will update readers in mid September.

At this time I can recommend the system and when taken alongside the other benefits of membership seems good value if the results continue at the same performance level.

You can see a full breakdown of my results here:

Redfearn Lays Results

Update – 16/9/2011:

There has been a decline in the strike rate to 83% in the month since the full review and this has resulted in a break even situation for the month which is hardly a disaster.

There have been some changes to the laying odds at various points during the month and recently we have bee applying a maximum of 7.5 to selections. The majority have been matched during the month.

It seemed to me as though there was a different person behind the selections for a couple of days early in the second month and we suffered 4 winning horses on 1 day followed by 3 the next but one which is the root cause of the stagnation for the month.

Since then things have seemed more back to normal so perhaps it was an aberration.

The fact that the system could sustain such severe losses without decimating the bank is a testament to its strength and even if you had started on the wrong day your bank would have recovered by now.

I will keep monitoring for another month but signs remain good overall for this service.

Roger Redfearn’s Lay Line Results

Update 24/10/2011:

A further month has seen an improvement in the strike rate to 86.5% and the bank is now double its original level, which has been achieved in 3 months.

Confidence in the selections has been bolstered and the blip last month seems well and truly behind us. Updated spreadsheet details are attached.

The service would be recommended as a stand alone but added to the other potential benefits of Surewin membership this make things even better. I will monitor for a further month and update readers in mid November 2011.

Roger Redfearn’ Lay Line Updated Results

Update 25/11/2011:

A slight loss for the month since the last review but less than 5% of the bank and if you cannot cope with that in a lay system then you are looking at the wrong type of betting. The strike rate is 85.4% for the whole period we have reviewed this service and confidence remains that the service is soundly based.

Recently the tips have changed slightly in that no maximum odds are now suggested, the author saying that followers should place their bet as soon as received. In practice the horses tend to be near the top end of the betting and the largest odds seen to date are 12.50 but that is the only occasion when you would have been in excess of 9. The average odds have been 6.30 over the 310 selections now seen.

Certainly well worth a look as the results in the updated spreadsheet show.

Next update will be in early January 2012.

Full results can be seen here:

Roger Redfearn’ Lay Line Updated Results

Update 12/1/2012:

The service has continued to perform well with a strike rate of over 86% and good profits being seen. I have added a level stakes calculation to the spreadsheet with 1 point staking and a profit of 120 points has been seen since we started testing.

This is significantly better than many lay systems we have seen and I suggest that it should make the Surewin sub worthwhile on its own before considering any more of their services/systems. Up to date spreadsheet attached and we will not be updating further.

Roger Redfearn’s Lay Line Results

Final Update 16/5/2012:

This service has been one of our longest running for monitoring (9 months) and until recently had performed very creditably. The author took a break in early April for health reasons and so we have decided to finalise our review now.

We have seen over 540 runners and the successful lay strike rate is 83.24% which is showing a profit overall at 38% of the starting bank but when you consider the profit had reached 104% in February this year it is clear there has been a downturn recently. As mentioned previously there do seem to be changes in the basis of the tips quite frequently and this does not help confidence on the whole.

In the light of recent performance we would have to downgrade our recommendation to one of watching brief only and hope that the service will recover following the authors return in May.

Roger Redfearn’s Lay Line Results


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Category: Betting, Horse Laying Tips, Horse Racing

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