The Racing Code

Racing Code 2019: Selections

| January 28, 2019 | 56 Replies

Selections will be posted for the following day at 10pm Sunday to Friday (there are no selections running on Sundays). 

The user guide is here https://www.bettingrant.co.uk/racing-code-2019-user-guide-49876

T = trainer, J = jockey, O = owner, AW = All-Weather, ROI = Return on Investment, * by race = enhanced places available with some bookmakers, ?/? = wins/runs

Results are here

If you have any problems or questions, please leave a comment below or send me an email at milesbets@gmail.com.

Good Luck!

Selections for Monday 17th June

Yolo Again was a non-runner on Saturday.

Bet 1) 3.00 Carlisle. Dream House. 0.75 points win. 6.5 various

Bet 2) 7.40 Windsor. Normandy Barriere. 0.375 points each-way. 21 various

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Dream House is another for Tim Easterby who gave us Poet’s Dream on Saturday and a few other recent winners. Dream House has his fifth run of the season and like many of his stable-mates should continue to improve over the next few runs.

Normandy Barriere is down in class and trainer Nigel Tinker has a very strong record with such horses over the last few years.

 

Saturday 15th June

Island Brave was today’s non-runner and Chepstow was abandoned, so only 3 of the 5 ran, without success despite decent efforts from the first two.

Bet 1) 2.35 Sandown. Pettochside. 0.375 points each-way. 13 various

Bet 2) 3.45 Chester. Yolo Again. 0.375 points each-way. 15 various

Bet 3) 4.20 Chester. Humble Gratitude. 0.75 points win. 4.5 various

Bet 4) 4.40 York. Poet’s Dawn. 0.5 points each-way. 11 various

Bet 5) 5.30 Chester. Al Kout. 0.5 points each-way. 8.5 SkyBet/BetVictor, 8 various

 

Friday 14th June

Bet 1) 1.40 Chepstow. Dashing Poet. 1 point win. 3.75 various

Bet 2) 2.20 York*. Mikmak. 0.5 points each-way. 12 SkyBet/Bet365/BetVictor

Bet 3) 2.55 York. Calippo. 0.75 points win. 7 SkyBet/BetVictor, 6.5 various

Bet 4) 7.10 Goodwood. Island Brave. 0.75 points win (7 runners). 13 various

Bet 5) 8.15 Goodwood. Aegean Mist. 0.375 points each-way. 26 Unibet/SkyBet/Bet365/BetVictor

A bit more detail will follow. In short, tomorrow we have 1) and 4) for Heather Main who is in top form at the moment, 2) for Tim Easterby and David Allan, 3) for Archie Watson in Selling Stakes and 5) is the first one of the year for John Bridger.

5) The key to the John Bridger angle is soft or heavy going and we’re looking for horses in handicaps at Class 3 or lower that have had a recent run. In the last 5 years this has given 38 winners from 141 runs at a strike-rate of 27% and an ROI of 132%. What particularly stands out about this is that with all of Bridger’s other runners in the same time period, he’s only had 59 winners from 1113 runs at a strike-rate of 5.3%. His most productive courses have been Windsor, Brighton and Goodwood where the combined tally reads 24 from 82 at a strike-rate of 29% and an ROI of 179%.

Aegean Mist has lost by 15, 9 and 21 lengths so far this year but this will be the first run of the year on soft ground. Last season she lost by 24 lengths then won on soft ground, then lost by 15 lengths on fast ground but then won again on soft ground the time after.

Thursday 13th June

Finnistown Farm was today’s non-runner. Let’s have a day off with little jumping off the page for tomorrow and with three inspections scheduled for the morning there may not be any or much racing happening anyway and then go again tomorrow night.

Wednesday 12th June

Dr Doro was a non-runner (again).

Bet 1) 3.00 Yarmouth*. Buxlow Belle. 0.375 points each-way. 9 Bet365/BetVictor/SkyBet. (Some stating 4 places may drop to 3 if 15 runners or fewer.)

Bet 2) 3.20 Haydock*. Finnistown Farm. 0.375 points each-way. 9.5 Unibet, 9 various

Bet 3) 3.30 Yarmouth. Swansdown. 1 point win. 2.25 Bet365/BetVictor, 2.1 various

Bet 4) 6.00 Hamilton. Better The Devil. 1 point win. 4.5 Bet365/BetVictor, 4 SkyBet/Unibet

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Tuesday 11th June

A poor day today, although that was more likely than most days with three selections at double-figure prices. Just two for tomorrow…

Bet 1) 6.20 Thirsk*. Kingdom Brunel. 0.375 points each-way. 15 various

Bet 2) 7.20 Thirsk*. Dr Doro. 0.5 points each-way. 21 various. (4 places standard, currently, some offering 5 places.)

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Dr Doro was a non-runner when a selection on Wednesday. Kingdom Brunel is a young middle-distance handicapper for David O’Meara and Danny Tudhope and these have had a consistently strong record over the years. O’Meara has two in this and although we’ve had a couple go to the one Tudhope hasn’t been riding, in the long-term he does ride twice as many winners than O’Meara’s 2nd string.

 

Monday 10th June

Mrs Dukesbury was a late non-runner on Saturday after playing up in the stalls and being withdrawn.

Bet 1) 2.30 Leicester. My Motivate Girl. 0.75 points win. 6 various

Bet 2) 6.05 Pontefract. Calippo. 1 point win. 2.75 SkyBet/BetVictor/Bet365

Bet 3) 6.35 Pontefract. Attention Seeker. 0.5 points each-way. 13 various

Bet 4) 7.35 Pontefract. Isidor Bonheur Yes. 0.375 points each-way. 10 Bet365/BetVictor, 9 various

Bet 5) 9.05 Pontefract. Suitcase N Taxi. 0.5 points each-way. 26 Bet365, 23 various. (Currently 4 places because of 16 runners, some may keep 4 places if a non-runner- worth checking if placing later.)

1) and 2) are more 2 year-old in Novice Stakes or Maidens for Archie Watson.

3) and 5) are potential improvers for Tim Easterby and David Allen. Incidentally, Suitcase had a Racing Post Rating of 26 on his first run last year, then improved to 66 on 2nd run then won under David Allan on 3rd run of year, recording a rating of 81, giving a good example of how Easterby’s runners improve through the early part of the year. This year on first run rating of 28, up to 58 on 2nd run, now has 3rd run of the year, down in class, off a lower mark than that last win and David Allan comes in for the ride.

4) Another having first run for David O’Meara and partnered by Danny Tudhope.

 

Saturday 8th June

Bet 1) 1.55 Chelmsford. Mrs Dukesbury. 1 point win. 3.75 BetVictor/Bet365, 3.5 SkyBet

Bet 2) 3.45 Beverley*. Brother McGonagall. 0.5 points each-way. 11 various

Bet 3) 3.55 Newmarket*. Aces. 0.5 points each-way. 13 various. (4 places @ 1/5 odds almost with everyone so that will be recorded.)

Bet 4) 4.10 Haydock*. Gymkhana. 0.5 points each-way. 12 Coral/Ladbrokes/Unibet

Bet 5) 8.15 Lingfield. Royal Residence. 1 point win. 3 Boyles, 2.875 Bet365/Unibet

1) is another for Archie Watson and Oisin Murphy, who gave us Guildsman today. Many of his newcomers have been barrier racing at Lingfield, giving them an experience edge over others who are experiencing their first time at a racecourse.

2) runs for Tim Easterby and David Allan. Third run of the season and Easterby’s handicappers normally improve with each as described earlier in the week.

3) A jockey upgrade for Ian Williams as described for Dr Doro earlier in the week. This time it’s Ryan Moore coming in and the last tie Aces won was at Newmarket last year… under Moore (who hasn’t ridden his since).

4) Has first run for David O’Meara who does very well with new recruits if they’re on the back of a break and ridden by Danny Tudhope. O’Meara has two in this and it’s always a pointer to see which one Tudhope is on.

5) James Tate, who does extremely well with 3 year-olds, and PJ McDonald team up and this is the jockey’s only ride on the card.

 

Friday 7th June

Bet 1) 6.30 Goodwood. Guildsman. 0.75 points win. 3.75 SkyBet/PaddyPower/Betfair Sportsbook

Bet 2) 8.10 Goodwood. Kirkland Forever. 0.75 points win. 7 various

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

It’s probably best to be cautious today with changing conditions, so will stick with these two- one from Archie Watson who continues to do extremely well in Novice Stakes and this is his one runner at the track, and the other from Eve Johnson Houghton against a number of out of form trainers.

—————-

Selections will be posted at midday on Friday. Very heavy rain is predicted for most parts overnight and during the day tomorrow, making changes to conditions and many non-runners very likely. With Brighton the only flat meeting in the afternoon already having small fields which are only going to get smaller and the three other meetings all in the evening, I think on this occasion it will be better to pause now and see how things are looking and assess who is still set to run in the morning.

 

Thursday 6th June

Dr Doro was a non-runner today.

Bet 1) 2.10 Haydock. Highwaygrey. 1 point win. 4.5 various

Bet 2) 3.10 Haydock. Dubai Station. 1 point win. 2.375 SkyBet/Boyles/BetVictor

Bet 3) 4.30 Hamilton. Avenue of Stars. 0.75 points win. 5.5 various

Bet 4) 5.20 Ripon. Twentysvnthlancers. 0.375 points each-way. 13 various

Bet 5) no more bets

1) If he has a good summer, we should have plenty of selections from Tim Easterby (T), ridden by David Allan or Rachel Richardson. What we’re looking for here are mid to low level handicappers running in the north or Scotland who have had at least one recent run. Easterby’s horses normally hit a peak- he rarely wins with horses returning from a break, then they improve through racing but then tail off again after around 6 runs.

2) Jamie Spencer was riding at Kempton on Wednesday evening, then travels to Haydock for this one ride before making it to Chelmsford for Thursday evening. He was 2nd of Dubai Station last time and to do that much travelling for this ride in a standard Class 4, Novice Stakes can only mean he’s expecting it to be worthwhile.

3) Our third of the season from Karen McLintock and hopefully our third winner. She does very well with her handicappers, especially when they’ve hit some form. She has three here at Hamilton but on jockey bookings this looks her best hope and conveniently is in a race in which many other trainers are out of form.

4) Our first of probably quite a few from Paul Midgley. Like Easterby, we’re looking for handicappers running in the north or in Scotland, but we have to be a bit more patient and wait for his runners, almost always sprinters aged 4 or older, to have had at least 4 runs in the previous 3 months. He starts slowly but now is beginning to pick up form and his charges should now be starting to come to hand after a few runs.

 

Wednesday 5th June

Bet 1) 12.30 Nottingham. Dr Doro. 0.5 points each-way. 13 various

Bet 2) 5.15 Kempton. Silent Agenda. 0.75 points win. 4.33 various

Bet 3) 6.30 Ripon. Precocity. 0.75 points win. 4.33 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

1) Runs for Ian Williams (T). The angle here is a jockey upgrade which often signposts Williams’s increased expectations. Stevie Donohue and George Downing are the jockeys he used most often but their strike-rate is far lower (29/369 since 2015) than when he brings in the likes of Crowley, James Doyle, Adam Kirby, Richard Kingscote or PJ McDonald (59/276). When the any of the later group replaces one of the former after a recent run then the strike-rate is higher still and the horses are often overpriced.

2) and 3) are both debutants running for Archie Watson and Richard Fahey, respectively. They’re up against other debutants from yards who don’t do as well first time out. Watson is in better form than Fahey in this area, but that looks a slightly tougher race.

 

Tuesday 4th June

A results update and updated BOG summary is below.

Bet 1) 5.40 Lingfield. Revolutionise. 1 point win. 3.5 BetVictor, 3.25 various

Bet 2) 7.10 Lingfield. Harry’s Bar. 0.75 point win. 3.5 various

Bet 3) 6.50 Newcastle. Tamreer. 1 point win. 3.25 various

Bet 4) 7.50 Newcastle. Street Life. 0.75 points win. 4.5 SkyBet/BetVictor, 4.33 various

Bet 5) no more bets

Staked Profit/Loss
Feb 44.75 -4.125
March 58 -6.253
April 74.1 30.54
May 82 12.6
Overall 258.85 32.762

 

May was a steady month for the Racing Code without any major peaks or troughs and finished up 12.6 points from 82 points staked, with 22 winners and 4 place returns from 89 selections. This was using the best BOG price at 8am, which was 0.519 points higher than if using if using the best BOG available the night before.

Since recording both sets of prices, the difference has been 0.761 points in favour of the night before, so whether making the bets the night before or at around 8am, when there are more BOG options available, the returns are extremely similar.

As before, the advice is to use a bookie offering BOG, preferably at 8am when there is a wider range available, enabling bets to be spread around, but the night before will provide an alternative on days when this isn’t possible. (Once again, this advice is specific to this service which, due to the nature of the way selections are found, has more drifting winners than is normally the case.)

The tally after four months of 2019 now stands at 32.762 points up from 258.85 points staked, at an ROI of 12.75%. These figures have been heading in the right direction for a while now and, much has been the case for most of the year after the slow start, is just a good couple of days away from being a very pleasing start to the year.

In addition, an extra 8.9 points could have been gained so far this year if using bookmakers offering an extra place. With this becoming increasingly common, it could be a useful bonus to profits, especially when used on selections at bigger prices although I wouldn’t do so if it means sacrificing BOG and/or the best price.

Singles Wins Place Returns Strike-rate % Returns % Ave Odds
Feb 48 8 4 16.67 25.00 6.99
March 60 11 8 18.33 31.67 8.24
April 79 20 5 25.32 31.65 7.86
May 89 22 4 24.72 29.21 8.12
Overall 278 61 21 21.94 29.50 7.82

 

Since sending the email last month listing who offers BOG and when, there have been a few further changes, so the updated list is below with those that have changed in bold. First a couple of other related notes-

Bwin aren’t listed on either oddschecker or the odds page at attheraces, but they use the same odds as Sporting Bet.

On oddschecker, if (you register and) login, by going to your account and then ‘My Bookies’ you can rearrange the order the bookies are listed which is very handy to be able to see which of the available accounts have the best odds. You can also check the odds history by clicking on the name of any horse/team/outcome.

BOG offered the night before:

Bet365, Sky Bet, Bet Victor, Coral, Ladbrokes, Boyle Sports, Racebets, Bet Stars, Toals, Unibet

BOG offered from midnight:

William Hill

BOG offered on day of race

Grosvenor (Not if depositing by Moneybookers or Neteller)

BOG offered from 7 a.m.

BetFred, Totesport

BOG offered from 8 a.m.

SportingBet, Bwin, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

BOG offered from 9 a.m.

MoPlay, Sport Pesa, 10Bet, 21Bet, Sport Nation and Red Zone (both selected races only)

BOG offered from 10 a.m.

Betway, Black Type, 888Sport

BOG offered from 11 a.m.

Quinn Bet, Jennings Bet,

BOG offered from 12 p.m.

138

BOG not offered

Marathon, BetHard, Mansion Bet, Come On, Fans Bet, Spreadex (fixed odds)

 

Monday 3rd June

Tomorrow (Monday) is a dire day of racing, so let’s give it a swerve and go through the rest of the week with selections instead. Monthly recap email will be sent during the day tomorrow.

 

Friday 31st May

Selections for tomorrow are below, but a quick note first…

It’s going to be a busy 4 or 5 months ahead, so from here on I’m going to have a ‘revision’ day a week which I think will be very beneficial. This obvious means I won’t be posting any selections that night but it’ll probably result in more things being spotted and more selections on other days, so will balance itself out. The summer is unrelenting and this will also help to keep the energy levels (and hopefully with it the quality of selections) high at the end of weeks and further into the season. I’ll pick what appears to be the day that offers the least each week and this week it’s Saturday, so there won’t be any selections posted tomorrow night. Meanwhile, let’s try to end the month on a high…

Bet 1) 2.15 Carlisle. Timetodock. 0.75 points win. 4.5 BetVictor/Bet365, 4.33 SkyBet

Bet 2) 4.55 Wolverhampton. Cristal Breeze. 1 point win. 3.25 BetVictor, 3 various

Bet 3) 5.20 Carisle. Muqarred. 0.375 points each-way. 13 BetVictor/Bet365, 12 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Thursday 30th May

Smart Lass was a non-runner today. In addition to tonight’s bets, there were some bets for the cricket World Cup emailed out earlier today and are copied below.

Bet 1) 2.20 Yarmouth. Coastline. 1 point win. 5.5 various

Bet 2) 4.30 Lingfield. Calippo. 1 point win. 3.75 BetVictor/Bet365

Bet 3) 5.55 Sandown. Sneaky. 1 point win. 4 Bet365/BetVictor

Bet 4) 6.45 Carlisle. James Park Woods. 1 point win. 3.5 BetVictor/Bet365

Bet 5) no more bets

1) another 3 year-old from James Tate. In fine form- 7/17 recently. 26/92 with 3 year-olds this year. A number of trainers in opposition are out of form. 2) and 3) are 2 year-olds from Archie Watson. 13/43 this year. Career 20/68 with Hollie Doyle riding and 16/58 with Oisin Murphy. 4) one for Ralph Beckett- back to form with 10 winners this month. 31/104 when sending non-handicappers on a significant journey a recent run. There were a number of others ticking many boxes running tomorrow but against other yards that are in decent form whereas these look able to take advantage of others not in such good shape currently.

The One-Day Cricket Word Cup starts tomorrow and I have a few tips for the tournament for you. I don’t have any track record to support what’s below and of course it’s up to you whether you follow suit or not, but here’s what I’ll be backing and why. (There’s a summary of the recommended bets at the bottom.)

The tournament features ten teams who will all play each other once and then the top four will progress to the semi-finals.

A slight tangent to begin with:

Sports Personality of the Year (SPOTY)

It’s a massive summer for England’s cricket teams with a One-Day World Cup and then The Ashes. They’re currently favourites for both and if victorious in one or the other then the headline maker is going to stand a strong chance of also winning SPOTY.

Only around half of the members of the respective squads are likely to be the same for both formats and that will give those involved in both to have two bites at the cherry.

Jos Buttler is one of the most explosive batsmen in the world, scorer of England’s fastest two centuries and an improving Test player. He comes into the World Cup in top form and if he comes off in the crucial moments of the tournament then he’ll be high in the highlights reel.

Joe Root is less spectacular, but holds a key role at No. 3 in the One-Day side, as the glue that holds an innings together, rotating the strike and allowing the big-hitters to push the tempo along, and as leading batsman and captain of the Test team. If he has a good summer then it’s is also likely that England will too. If he’s an Ashes winning captain having led from the front then he’ll be a strong contender for this award in December.

These two are preferred to other possibles such as Eion Morgan (captain of One-Day side but won’t feature in the Test series), Ben Stokes (consistently plays an important part but recent contributions have tended to be in assistance rather than starring roles), Moeen Ali (similar to Stokes), Adil Rashid (may not play in the Ashes due to only one spinner being the norm at home), James Anderson (headlines could have already have been made by the time he enters the spotlight later in the summer).

Top Tournament Batsman

Because of the ten team, round robin group stage followed by semis and final, six teams will play 9 games, two will play 10 and two will play 11. This narrows the gap in terms of number of games played compared with previous formats and means there’s a chance of the leading scorer coming from any of the ten teams, rather than just those that go deep into the tournament.

The stars of the leading teams head the market, with the likes of Root, Virat Kohli, Steve Smith and Kane Williamson among the nine batsmen at odds of under 20/1. However, none of these open the batting and playing for stronger sides may actually count against them because there may be games when they are chasing small totals or they follow lengthy opening stands which reduces their chances and, with strength beneath them too, there may be times when their own accumulation is sacrificed in pursuit of the highest possible team totals, whereas in weaker sides those two goals become one and the same.

In other words, I’m looking beyond the big names and the favoured teams for some hidden value:

Babar Azam (Pakistan)– A star of the future, Babar has averaged 51 in One-Day Internationals (ODIs) so far, passing 50 in over a third of his innings. In warm-up games he’s scored three centuries and four fifties from 9 innings.

Martin Guptill (New Zealand)- New Zealand’s highest scorer in T20 Internationals, has 3 ODI centuries to his name already this year. Plenty of experience with Derbyshire of playing in England and averages 51 in ODIs in this country. A big-game player – scored 237 not out in the quarter-final of the last World Cup.

Tamin Iqbal (Bangladesh)- Opener who had an excellent Test series in New Zealand earlier this year, scoring at a one-day rate – had made 126 out of Bangladesh’s 180 when he was out in the 1st Test. Has taken to English conditions before – 5 centuries and 5 half-centuries in 25 Test and One-Day International innings.

Shai Hope (West Indies)- comes into this in fine form, recording scores of 170, 109, 30, 87, 74, 21 in the recent tri-series against Bangadesh and Ireland, then added 101 against New Zealand.

Top Bowler

Whereas most sides like to bat first and set a total, England are better chasing and therefore are more likely to bowl first than others. In turn, this means they will either bowl sides out or have them attacking through to the end of their innings. (Whereas a side fielding second may have games when the result is clear before the end. It also means they are more likely to bowl their overs if rain interrupts proceedings.) This could give England’s bowlers a slight advantage in this market (which is based on most wickets taken).

Adil Rashid (England)- is trusted to bowl most of his overs in the second half of an innings when there is most attacking intent and more wickets fall. Opponents will fear England’s batting and not settle for moderate totals, increasing Rashid’s chances of picking up cheap wickets.

Matt Henry (New Zealand)- Henry has lurked under the radar, probably because he hasn’t been able to get into New Zealand’s Test team on a regular basis despite commonly being in the squad, due to the success of the Boult, Southee, Wagner attack. However, he has one of the best ever strike-rates in ODIs and should be used to the conditions after a successful season in county cricket last year. This may make him a spot of value, worthy of a small stake at a big price.

Tournament Winner

It’s hard to argue with the top three in the market being England, India and Australia and, given the format of the competition, their overall strength should see them through to the knock-outs, allowing for one or two off days.
Behind them, South Africa and West Indies may not have enough batting or consistency to make it through.

New Zealand look to be a more backable side at the prices with an experienced upper-order of Williamson, Guptill and Taylor and a threat with the ball from Boult and Southee. They look the most likely to make it through alongside the favoured three and from there could be traded out or reviewed according to the updated circumstances.

England’s Top Batsman

The value call here looks to be Jason Roy.

Fellow opener Jonny Bairstow and No. 3 Joe Root hold similarly strong cases due to their positions high in the order but with Roy back to top form in the build-up to the tournament, there shouldn’t be such a difference in their prices, especially as Roy has warmed up with scores of 87, 76, 114, 32 and 89* in his last five innings. There’s little difference in their prices to be the top batsman, but there’s enough of a gap here for a bet.

To Finish Bottom

Afghanistan are the obvious favourites here, but they did beat Pakistan in a warm-up game and continue to improve at an incredible rate.

Bangladesh have had the better of West Indies in the last few weeks and are capable of picking up a couple of wins. Sri Lanka are also strong contenders here but are priced accordingly.

Meanwhile, Pakistan are on a long losing streak and have a knack of missing out in tight games. They can also struggle with batting depth, leaving them vulnerable if losing early wickets. At the prices, they are worth a small stake in a tournament where the weakest are stronger than normal.

Summary of bets

SPOTY Winner:

Jos Buttler 1 point win. 40/1 various

Joe Root 0.75 points win. 20/1 various

https://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

World Cup Winner

New Zealand 0.75 points win. 12/1 Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook, 10/1 otherwise

Top Batsman (4 places standard, 5 with Fred and Boyles)

Babar Azam 0.25 points each-way (0.5 points total) 25/1 Betfair Sportsbook, 22/1 William Hill, 20/1 various

Tamin Iqbal 0.25 points each-way. 66/1 various

Martin Guptill 0.25 points each-way. 28/1 various

Shai Hope 0.25 points each-way. 33/1 various

https://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/world-cup/world-cup-2019/top-batsman

Top Bowler (4 places standard, 5 with Fred and Boyles)

Adil Rashid 0.5 points each-way. 16/1 various

Matt Henry 0.25 points each-way. 100/1 Sporting Bet, Bwin, Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill

https://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/world-cup/world-cup-2019/top-bowler

Top English Batsman

Jason Roy 1 point win. 5 Betway, SkyBet, BetFred

To Finish Bottom

Pakistan 0.5 points. 20/1 Black Type, 18/1 SkyBet

Good Luck!

Wednesday 29th May

There’s a deduction to be taken off of Archie’s price. Yo Tambien refused to leave the stalls so hopefully some bookies will have refunded bets.

Bet 1) 1.40 Beverley. Frida Kahlo. 1 point win. 4.5 various

Bet 2) 2.20 Hamiton. Global Spirit. 0.75 points win. 5 various

Bet 3) 4.25 Hamilton. Smart Lass. 0.375 points each-way. 21 Bet365/BetVictor (WillHill, BOG after midnight), other that will have BOG in the morning are 19 and 17

Bet 4) 5.25 Hamilton. Everkyllachy. 0.75 points win. 5.5 various

Bet 5) no more bets.

1) runs for Archie Watson who does extremely well in Claiming and Selling Stakes. 2) runs for Roger Fell and Ben Curtis with positives including their record at the track, together, and in sprint handicaps, boosted by a number of trainers at Hamilton tomorrow being badly out of form. 3) is an ‘Irish Raider’ from a trainer with 19 wins from 61 runs in England and Scotland. 4) runs for Karen McLintock who is in good form, has a positive record at the track and a strong and profitable record with handicappers dropping in class.

 

Tuesday 28th May

Bet 1) 3.10 Leicester. Archies Lad. 1 point win (6 runners). 11 various

Bet 2) 4.50 Redcar. Midnight Malibu. 0.5 points each-way. 13 Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower, 12 various

Bet 3) 5.20 Redcar. Arletta Star. 0.5 points each-way. 7.5 various

Bet 4) 6.40 Southwell. Yo Tambien. 0.5 points each-way. 13 WillHill/BetVictor, 12 various

Bet 5) 8.50 Ayr. Home Before Dusk. 1 point win. 3.75 various

One for Richard Fahey in Claiming Stakes, then our first two of the year from Tim Easterby who now looks to be coming into form, an Irish Raider from a trainer with 3 at Southwell tonight who does very well on his occasional trips and then another from Keith Dalgleish.

 

Monday 27th May

Bet 1) 2.20 Leicester. Izvestia. 1 point win. 2.2 various

Bet 2) 3.35 Redcar. Northern Society. 1 point win. 6 various

Bet 3) 4.40 Leicester. Parisean Artiste. 0.375 points each-way. 13 various

Bet 4) 5.20 Redcar. Mr Coco Beans. 1 point win. 2.875 SkyBet/BetVictor, 2.75 various

Bet 5) 5.25 Windsor. Onebab. 1 point win. 5 various

Small steps forwards and backwards, forwards and backwards this month, so it’d be good to have a positive end to the month this week. I’ll look to detail some of the most frequently used angles in a monthly summary next week so that they can be referred to rather than being broken down when used.

A variety tomorrow. 1) runs for Archie Watson who does extremely well in Claiming/Selling Stakes. 2) Runs for Keith Dalgleish in the sort of handicap in which he excels. 3) Our third for Eve Johnson Houghton, again in the sort of handicap she has a strong record in. 4) Runs for David Barron and Ben Curtis and a case that is strengthened by poor form of other market leaders. 5) A handicap debutat for Michael Bell who has come into strong form in recent weeks.

 

Saturday 25th May

Bet 1) 2.20 Chester. Pass The Gin. 1 point win. 4 various

Bet 2) 4.15 York. International Lion. 0.5 points each-way. 7 SkyBet/BetVictor, 6.5 Boyles/Bet365

Bet 3) 5.15 Chester. Never Do Nothing. 1 point win. 5.5 various

Bet 4) 7.50 Salisbury (4 places with most so will be recorded). Miss Havana. 0.5 points each-way. 12 various

Bet 5) no more bets

The end of a long week- I’ll add more text on Sunday.

 

Friday 24th May

Bet 1) 2.00 Bath. Union Rose. 0.75 points win. 4.5 various

Bet 2) 2.45 Haydock. Visible Charm. 1 point win. 2.375 BetVictor, 2.25 various

Bet 3) 3.20 Haydock. With Caution. 1 point win. 4 Boyles/SkyBet, 3.75 various

Bet 4) 4.15 Bath. Bayards Cove. 0.375 points each-way. 13 various

Bet 5) 6.30 Pontefract. Trinity Star. 1 point win. 5 various

Notes to follow

 

Thursday 23rd May

Bet 1) 2.25 Chepstow. Brother Bentley. 1 point win. 5.5 BetVictor/Bet365, 5 various

Bet 2) 3.35 Chepstow. Tin Hat. 0.5 points each-way. 10 various

Bet 3) 8.30 Chelmsford*. Ronnie Lane. 0.375 points each-way. 13 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

1) Runs for Ron Harris (T) and David Probert (J). Handicapping sprints for the pair off the back of a decent run have had a 20%+ strike-rate for four years in a row, more than doubling stakes.

2) Eve Johnson Houghton generally does well in finding races for her younger, lower-class hanndicappers with a recent run. Despite struggling last year, she’s back to the form of previous years of hitting a 20%+ strike-rate and a 60% ROI. This angle is 5/14 so far this month.

3) Martin Dwyer makes it to Chelmsford for this one ride after being at Lingfield in the afternoon. With certain other criteria applied this is going to be a common angle over the coming months. Although not providing a huge edge, it has proved itself to be profitable over a long period of time.

 

Wednesday 22nd May

Requited was a non-runner today.

Bet 1) 2.00 Ayr. Mellad. 1 point win. 4.33 SkyBet/BetVictor, 4 various

Bet 2) 4.15 Yarmouth. Local History. 1 point win. 2.1 SkyBet/BetVictor, 2 various

Bet 3) 4.35 Ayr. Dragon Mountain. 0.75 points win. 7.5 Bet365, 6.5 BetVictor, 6 various

Bet 4) 4.45 Yarmouth. Mubhji. 1 point win. 2.875 SkyBet, 2.75 various

Bet 5) 6.25 Kempton. Astonished. 0.75 points win. 7 various

1) A debutant for Fahey and Hanagan. 2) and 5) run for James Tate who gave us Fields of Athenry today. 3) The first for a while for Keith Dalgleish who has returned to form. 4) Another returning from a break for Roger Varian.

More details will follow

 

Tuesday 21st May

Risaala was a very late non-runner today.

Bet 1) 2.45 Nottingham. Tabassor. 1 point win. 2.2 various

Bet 2) 4.00 Wolverhampton. Fields of Athenry. 1 point win. 5.5 various

Bet 3) 5.25 Nottingham. Requited. 0.5 points each-way. 9 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

3) is now a non-runner so I’ll save that for another time. 1) is the same Charlie Hills angle as yesterday’s (non-runner) Risaala and 2) is another 3 year-old handicapper for James Tate and his only runner on the card.

Monday 20th May

It’s been largely good progress in the last month or two and a healthy percentage have been running well, but a poor couple of days ended last week, so let’s hope to finish the month strongly. Without a festival this week- whereas the last fortnight has had Chester and York running for much of it- chances are the quality will be more evenly spread across the meetings and giving us a few more opportunities.

Bet 1) 5.05 Redcar. Rissala. 1 point win. 2.875 various

Bet 2) 5.15 Carlisle. Star Shield. 1 point win. 4.5 BetVictor (WillHill), 4 various

Bet 3) 7.45 Leicester. My Motivate Girl. 1 point win. 4.33 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

1) Charlie Hills is one of a number of trainers who has horses owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum and he has an excellent record with these, especially  outside of handicaps with 46 wins at a 23% strike-rate and 59% ROI inn the last four years. Most of these wins have come when Jim Crowley or Dane O’Neill, the owner’s retained riders, have been in the saddle (previously Paul Hanagan before Crowley). The stats are stronger still on turf and in May and June.

2) Another young middle-distance handicapper for David O’Meara and Danny Tudhope.

3) Another lower class 2 year-old from Archie Watson. These have been going particularly well with Hollie Doyle in the saddle.

 

Saturday 18th May

New Day Dawn is recorded as a loser today for finishing 4th of 15 after two non-runners changed the standard place terms, but would have paid out in most places. Buckland Boy ran a belter but blew the start terribly.

I’m having to put these up earlier than normal so, as always, it worth using an odds comparison site to check for best prices and place terms- those below are just a guide.

Bet 1) 2.10 Thirsk. Jaunty. 0.5 points each-way. 11

Bet 2) 3.50 Newmarket. Declaring Love. 1 point win. 3.5

Bet 3) 4.50 Newbury. Lastochla. 0.5 points each-way. 17

Bet 4) 5.05 Thirsk. Bo Samran. 0.5 points each-way. 7

Bet 5) 6.00 Doncaster. Mr Gus. 1 point win. 4

1) and 5) are debutants for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan.

2) is a debutant for Charlie Appleby.

3) returns for 1st run of season for Roger Varian and Andrea Atzeni.

4) is a 3 year-old for Mark Johnston upped in trip after a positive recent run

Friday 17th May

Bet 1) 2.10 Newbury. Habub. 1 point win. 3.75 Ladbrokes/Coral/BetVictor

Bet 2) 3.20 Newbury. Buckland Boy. 0.75 points win. 6 BetVictor (WillHill), 5 various

Bet 3) 3.35 York. UAE Prince. 1 point win. 3 various

Bet 4) 4.05 York*. New Day Dawn. 0.375 points each-way. (26 Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower), 21 various. 4 places standard, 5 available with some

Bet 5) 4.35 York. Ustath. 0.75 points win. 7 BetVictor (WillHill), 6.5 various

1) and 5) are both from Owen Burrows (T) and have their first runs in a handicap today. Burrows is 10/36 with handicap debutants, including 7/25 with either Jim Crowley or Dane O’Neill riding (as they are today). Burrows has come into form with 5/16 with all recent runnners.

2) Runs for Charlie Fellowes and Stevie Donohue.

3) Another making a return to action for Roger Varian and Andrea Atzeni.

4) One coming back from a break for Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote. Their runners 4 years-old or older, coming back in the first half of the year (later implies there’s been a problem) have been winning at 31% and an ROI of 99% in recent years. This drops to 11% and -32% when Dascombe uses anyone other than his main rider.

Thursday 16th May

Bidding War was a non-runner today. Just one tomorrow in the last race of the day.

Bet 1) 8.35 Newmarket. Smile A Mile. 1 point win. 3.5 various

Bet 2) no more bets

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Champion Jockey Sivestre De Sousa rides at York tomorrow afternoon before travelling to Newmarket for one ride and then returning to York for Friday afternoon and we should take the hint- he wouldn’t be making a 336 mile round trip without high expectations.

He’s ridden 273 winners for Mark Johnston at a strike-rate of 19% and a small profit. At Newmarket their record is 20 wins from the last 84 runs at an ROI of 236% including 13/29 at odds of 6 or shorter with a 44% strike-rate and ROI of 79%.

 

Wednesday 15th May

A quick reminder that William Hill are now only BOG after midnight and that more BOG options become available at 8am- Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Totesport, Sporting Bet and Bwin. Pleasingly, since the email was sent with the list of who does BOG and when, the returns for backing with the prices at 10pm and 8am have produced almost identical returns- less than half a point difference.

Bet 1) 3.10 Yarmouth. Roser Moter. 0.375 points each-way. (21 PaddyPower/Betfair Sportsbook) 15 various

Bet 2) 4.45 Yarmouth. Bidding War. 0.5 points each-way. 17 BetVictor/Bet365, 12 various

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Two for different Mick Appleby angles tomorrow. Roser Moter is a handicapper having his first run since changing trainers, while Bidding War has apprentice Theodore Ladd coming in for the ride to lighten the load.

 

Tuesday 14th May

Bet 1) 2.20 Beverley. Exclusive. 1 point win. 2.625 various

Bet 2) 2.50 Beverley. Parion. 1 point win. 5 BetVictor/Bet365, 4.5 various

Bet 3) 4.00 Chepstow. Daghash. 0.375 points each-way. (12 PaddyPower/Betfair Sportsbook) 11 Bet365, 10 various

Bet 4) 4.50 Beverley. Lincoln Tale. 0.75 points win. 3.75 various

Bet 5) no more bets

1) Archie Watson’s (T) record in Class 5 or 6 non-handicaps reads 72/262, including 5/13 with Danny Tudhope (J) and 10/32 when traveling to Yorkshire and 22/83 with debutants at an ROI of 73%, including 9/21 in the last two months.

2) Richard Fahey’s (T) record in Class 5 or 6 Claimers or Sellers has a strike-rate north of 24% in each of the last five profitable seasons. In these races on turf in the last decade he’s had 93 winners with a 30% strike-rate and a 23% ROI, with 58 of those occurring in Yorkshire.

3) Stuart Kittow (T) has a record of 23/142 (16%) in the last decade with horses running after a 4 month break or longer on turf at an ROI of 46%, including 19/105 in April or May and 16/72 with horses aged 4 to 8.

4) Another for David O’Meara and Danny Tudhope with younger middle-distance handicappers.

Monday 13th May

Bet 1) 3.05. Musselburgh. Right Action. 1 point win. 3.25 various

Bet 2) no more bets

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Saturday 11th May

Bet 1) 3.40 Lingfield. Perfection. 0.75 points win. 5.5 various

Bet 2) 4.00 Ascot* (5 places with most which will be recorded but 6 available with some). Cape Byron. 0.5 points each-way. 11 various

Bet 3) 4.35 Ascot. Expressionist. 1 point win. Particularly recommend getting best BOG even if waiting for the morning. Currently 3.25 BetVictor, 3 Bet365

Bet 4) 7.15 Thirsk*(4 places with most which will be recorded but 5 available with some). Across The Sea. 0.5 points each-way. 9 various

Bet 5) no more bets

1) David O’Meara does very well with his newly acquired horse’s especially when ridden by Danny Tudhope and their first run for him follows a lengthy break.

2) Another having their first start of the year for Roger Varian which has given us quite a few winners in the last few weeks.

3) A debutant for Charlie Appleby

4) A 3 year-old for James Tate on handicap debut.

 

Friday 10th May

Bet 1) 1.50 Chester. Cold Stare. 0.375 points each-way. 11 BetVictor (WillHil), 10 various

Bet 2) 8.20 Nottingham. Queen’s Royale. 0.5 points each-way. 13 various

Bet 3) 8.30 Ripon. Grey Mist. 1 point win. 5 SkyBet/BetVictor/Bet365

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Cold Stare runs for David O’Meara and Danny Tudhope. O’Meara has saddled 7 winners from his last 14 runners. After a 6 month period in late 2018/early 2019 when the pair only had 8/102, they’ve been 14/52 in the last two months and are clearly now hitting top form. The core angle here is with younger middle-distance handicappers which has given a profit in 6 out of 8 years, 83 winners and an ROI of 53%.

Queen’s Royale uses Mick Appleby’s success when bringing in an apprentice to lighten the load. Members of The Syndicate may remember the horse’s last run when she hit the front and looked a likely winner only to become injured and have to be eased down. Dropped 2 lbs and with Theodore Ladd’s 5lb claim, it’s likely Appleby has had a plan here. Using this tactic he’s had 5/13 at Nottingham in the last two years.

Grey Mist runs for Karen McLintock who has an excellent record with handicappers in the last 3 years- 42 wins at a rate above 1 in 6 and an ROI of 77%, including 7/18 running a mile and three-quarters or further, a 24% strike-rate with last time out winners and 4/12 when upped in trip. Most in opposition are struggling for form currently.

 

Thursday 9th May

A quiet week so far, but it’s very likely to be a full house on Friday.

Bet 1) 4.05 Chester. The New Marwan. 1 point win. 6 SkyBet/BetVictor, 5.5 various

Bet 2) 5.30 Chelmsford. Daring Venture. 1 point win. 2.75 BetVictor/Bet365 (WillHill), 2.625 various

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

The New Marwan is a debutant for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan- an angle that has got off to a flyer in the last month.

As an aside, The New Marwan is owned by Dr Marwan Koukash and I can’t recall any of his many horses having his own name in their name, so it could (possibly) be that much is expected of this one. Over the years, his most successful horse has been Gabrial, named after his son.

Daring Venture is another 3 year-old for Roger Varian having his first run of the year. Varian’s 3 year-olds returning from at least a 3 month break are 10/28 this year, including 4/10 with Andrea Atzeni and 7/16 in tomorrow’s Class 5, including 6/12 in Novice Stakes and 6/7 on the AW, including 3/3 with Atzeni. With all runners, Varian is 19/64 (30%) since the 16th April, including 8/21 with Atzeni (38% and an ROI of 123%).

 

Wednesday 8th May

Bet 1) 3.00 Chester. Yolo Again. 0.375 points each-way. 15 various

Bet 2) no more bets

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

A tricky day to fid sections with only two meetings and Chester is very competitive while Southwell has negatives attached to any that might have been considered.

Roger Fell (T) has been profitable to back in sprit handicaps in all 4 years of being a trainer, on both turf and All-Weather, doing particularly well after a recent run (61 wins, 82% ROI) and dropping in trip.

 

Tuesday 7th May

Purdey’s Gift was a non-runner today.

Bet 1) 1.50 Wetherby. Spice of Life. 0.375 points each-way. 11 various

Bet 2) 4.25 Wetherby. Fastman. 0.5 points each-way. 12 various

Bet 3) 6.00 Wolverhampton. Juniper. 0.5 points each-way. 10 BetVictor (PaddyPower), 9 various

Bet 4) 8.00 Wolverhampton. Sadler’s Beach. 0.375 points each-way. 21 BetVictor (PaddyPower/Betfair Sportsbook), 17 various

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Monday 6th May

Due to the Bank Holiday weekend, to save time I won’t add any notes today or tomorrow, except to say we have two from Andrew Balding- one with Oisin Murphy riding and one with David Probert- and then one for Ron Harris with Probert.

Bet 1) 3.10 Windsor. Purdey’s Gift. 0.75 points win. 2.875 various

Bet 2) 3.25 Bath. Boutonniere. 0.75 points win. 3.5 various

Bet 3) 5.10 Bath. Fethiye Boy. 0.75 points win. 8 BetVictor/Bet365, 7 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Saturday 4th May

There will be selections as normal on Sunday and Monday nights over the Bank Holiday weekend.

Bet 1) 4.10 Newmarket*. Jackster. 0.5 points each-way. 8 SkyBet, 7.5 various

Bet 2) 4.15 Thirsk* (4 places standard, 5 with some). Intrepidly. 0.5 points each-way. 8.5 SkyBet/BetVictor, 8 various

Bet 3) 4.20 Goodwood. Qutob. 1 point win. 2.25 SkyBet, 2.1 various

Bet 4) 5.15 Doncaster. Watchable. 0.5 points each-way. 6.5 various

Bet 5) 5.30 Goodwood. Takumi. 1 point win. 4.5 Bet365/SkyBet/BetVictor

 

Friday 3rd May

Under the selections there is a preview of this year’s Jockey Championship and then notes for tomorrow.

William Hill now offer BOG from midnight. No joy today although two were matched between 1.2 and 1.3 but didn’t complete the job.

Bet 1) 2.25 Musselburgh. Duke of Firenze. 1 point win. 7 BetVictor/Bet365, 6 various

Bet 2) 3.50 Chepstow. Eye of the Water. 1 point win. 4 Bet365, 3.75 various

Bet 3) 4.35 Musselburgh. Star Shield. 1 point win. 3.5 various

Bet 4) 6.55 Newcastle. Colourfield. 1 point win. 5 various

Bet 5) 8.30 Newcastle. Epeius. 0.5 points each-way. 7.5 SkyBet/BetVictor, 7 various

Flat Jockey Championship 2019 Preview

This year’s Flat Jockey Championship runs from this Saturday (4th May) all the way through to October 19th. To begin assessing what may happen, let’s look at the top of last year’s table and the odds for this season:

Jockey Wins Rides Strike Rate Odds
Silvestre De Sousa 148 779 19% 2.25
Oisin Murphy 121 708 17% 2.25
Jim Crowley 107 553 19% 41
James Doyle 106 467 23% 15
Daniel Tudhope 92 552 17% 51
Andrea Atzeni 86 480 18% 67
Joe Fanning 85 573 15% 101
Ben Curtis 83 480 17% 34
Richard Kingscote 79 492 16%
Jason Watson 77 463 17% 34
Franny Norton 77 541 14%
Luke Morris 77 758 10% 81
Ryan Moore 75 394 19% 67
Robert Havlin 68 366 19% 67
P J McDonald 68 471 14% 51
David Allan 68 544 13%
David Probert 67 553 12% 67
Paul Hanagan 67 590 11% 81
William Buick 64 348 18% 67
Harry Bentley 62 476 13%

We next need to consider reasons for change, keeping an eye on the 2nd and 3rd columns…

To state the obvious, to be Champion, or even to be a contender, a jockey is going to need a high strike-rate and a large number of rides. If we can find a reason for a jockey to improve either their strike-rate or number of rides then their tally is going to increase.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that the outcome of the last couple of years has been clear from a couple of months before the end of the season.

Previously to this, when there have been tight battles, those involved have taken as many good rides as possible, travelled from track to track and have also become attractive bookings because of the extra attention they have brought and due to trainers knowing that they are not just going through the end of season motions but are there to give it everything they have…

Because of this, if we can find a jockey who is in with a decent chance in four months time, it is likely their total will be boosted from last year as they engage in a final push.

At the top of the tree, Silvestre De Sousa (SDS) will probably not be able to match last year’s number of winners because he now has a contract with King Power Racing and this will mean he will be required to ride more at the bigger meetings rather than picking up softer victories elsewhere.

Another who I doubt will match their performance last year is Jason Watson. Despite now being attached to Roger Charlton’s yard, without his claim he’s not going to be such an attractive proposition for trainers when competing for rides against those more established.

Oisin Murpy’s stock continues to rise and he looks likely to be SDS’s biggest threat. However, the odds look on the short side, currently. His monthly number of winner last year from May to October reads 14, 14, 29, 22, 30, 22 and shows that he was behind in the race from an early stage before making up some ground later on.

This slow start is not a huge surprise because his biggest supplier of winners is trainer Andrew Balding who often hits a peak a few months into the season and only provided Murphy with one success in the first two months in 2018, compared to 20 thereafter. If Murphy has a similar May and June then his odds will be a lot higher in a couple of months.

William Buick and P. J. McDonald both had injuries last year, so if able to ride throughout the season will have more rides to their name and with it more winners. Paul Hanagan’s strike-rate of 11% last year was low for him and he didn’t look at his best. He’s appears to be riding more like his old self so far this year and if he is aided by his boss, Richard Fahey, having a strong year then he’s not to be ruled out.

Ben Curtis is another contender as his record and standing improves year by year. His wins in May to October have increased each year since 2013 – 13, 34, 44, 50, 53, 84 – along with his number of rides and last season saw him achieve his highest strike-rate. If that trend continues then he won’t be far away.

Jim Crowley, James Doyle, Andrea Atzeni, Daniel Tudhope complete my not very short list of ten for the crown. Again, with this year unlikely to have a runaway leader, any of these could be in contention in late August/early September and thereafter increase their efforts and figures as a consequence.

At the moment, there are too many who could have a say to want to get involved and I would rather wait to be able to remove a few due to injuries or poor form. That said,  I wouldn’t want to dissuade anyone from having small stakes on some of those mentioned currently with the highest prices because there does look to be too much of a gap in the prices between the two market leaders and some of the other contenders.

There tends to be plenty of hype and coverage – and articles such as this – in the week before the Championship begins, but during the season bookmakers tend to be slow to react to changes and it’s a market worth monitoring closely, especially in a year in which it appears to be a wide open contest.

1) As previously mentioned, David Griffiths (T) has had an upturn in recent months after a few baron months when he suspected there was a bug of some sort in the yard. His sprinters are 11/36 when running again within 15 days in the last four months, while most trainers in opposition are very sort of recent winners.

2) One for the Ron Harris and David Probert combo. Handicapping sprinters who won or were close last time out have been profitable to back for five years in a row.

3) Another young middle-distance handicapper for David O’Meara (T) and Danny Tudhope (J) running in northern England or Scotland. It’s an angle that’s been profitable for 6 out of 8 years, providing 83 winners with an ROI of 55%.

4) Charlie Fellowes (T) has a profitable record in handicaps (89 wins, ROI 30%) with just over half of the winners ridden b Stevie Donohoe (ROI 55%) and most winners over middle-distances. The pair are 15/68 (ROI 91%) with handicappers dropping in class and have won 4/8 in the last month when teaming up on all handicappers. There is also a lack of trainer form in opposition.

5) Another for the Ben Haslem at Newcastle angle.

Thursday 2nd May

Bet 1) 1.45 Musselburgh*. Pavlichenko. 0.375 points each-way. (12 PaddyPower/Betfair Sportsbook) 11 BetVictor

Bet 2) 2.15 Musselburgh. Bellepower. 0.75 points win. 3.5 SkyBet/BetVictor, 3 various

Bet 3) 4.25 Musselburgh. Ahundrednotout. 0.75 points win. 3 various

Bet 4) 4.45 Southwell. Zorro’s Girl. 0.75 points win. 5 Bet365, 4.5 BetVictor, (4 BetFred/Totesport)

Bet 5) 5.15 Southwell. Countrynwestern. 0.75 points win. 7 SkyBet/Bet365, 6.5 BetVictor

1), 2) and 3) John James Fearne (T) doesn’t come over from Ireland very often but has a great record when he does, especially in Scotland with 6/12 with non-claiming jockeys in the last three years and 10/23 in Class 6 which is the class all his runners are in tomorrow. There’s a little caution in the stake because he hasn’t been in great form back home, but it’s rare these trips are in vain.

4) Zorro’s Girl just found one better last time but Archie Watson’s been in flying form with his three year-olds and this is his only runner on the card.

5) A selection from a course specific system.

 

Wednesday May 1st

Morning All,

The contenders for today are all at short prices and coupled with not being able to add them last night, let’s keep it simple and have a day without selections.

A good April has moved the figures in the right direction and with the number of meetings now increasingly dramatically- and with it the number of options, range of angles and increased clarity in many positive pointers- I’m very hopeful that’ll be carried on over the coming months.

There’s going to be more work to be done for next winter, but we should be in good shape for the next six months. The figures below summarise the singles so far and the overall profit and loss. As predicted, the strike-rate remains around 20% overall, with returns on 30% of all selections.

An ROI of 12% so far is respectable (and would give a return around 100 points over the year), but I’d like that to be closer to 20% which would triple the 75 point bank inside 12 months. As has been the case for a while, we’re not far from that and only short by 2 to 4 winners, depending on their odds, and a repeat of April would bring the figures up to that level.

Singles Wins Place Returns Strike-rate % Returns % Ave Odds
Feb 48 8 4 16.67 25.00 6.99
March 60 11 8 18.33 31.67 8.24
April 79 20 5 25.32 31.65 7.86
Overall 187 39 17 20.86 29.95 7.76
Staked Profit/Loss
Feb 44.75 -4.125
March 58 -6.253
April 74.1 30.54
Overall 176.85 20.162

 

Tuesday April 30th

I’m not going to be able to post tomorrow (Weds) night, so if there is anything for Wednesday it will be emailed as early on Wednesday morning as possible.

Bet 1) 1.30 Nottingham. Lady Fanditha. 1 point win. 5 SkyBet/BetVictor, 4.5 various

Bet 2) 4.05 Nottingham. Navigate By Stars. 1 point win. 4.5 various

Bet 3) 7.40 Newcastle. Blindingly. 1 point win. 5.5 various

Bet 4) 8.15 Newcastle. Gunmaker. 1 point win. 5 Bet365, 4.5 SkyBet/BetVictor/WillHill

Bet 5) 8.30 Chelmsford. Imperial Act. 1 point win. 4.33 WillHill, 4 Bet365/BetVictor

1) As one of the tallest and heaviest jockeys, Adam Kirby doesn’t get down to his minimum weight very often- a task he’s openly not a fan of- and when he does it is either for big races or when much is expected from a relative newcomer. That he’s getting down to this weight for a Class 5 Novice Stakes to ride a debutant suggests much is expected.

Familiar angles otherwise. 2) is a young runner for Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote. 3) meets previously described criteria for Ben Haslem at his favourite track. 4) is a Newcastle specific angle that I’m keeping the lid on. 5) runs for Andrew Balding ad Oisin Murphy and is also Murphy’s only ride at the track and he travels here for this ride after spending the afternoon at Nottingham.

 

Monday 29th April

Bet 1) 2.10 Southwell. Zorro’s Girl. 1 point win. 4 WillHill/BetVictor, 3.75 various

Bet 2) 2.30 Wolverhampton. Second Collection. 1 point win. 2.875 various

Bet 3) 2.50 Newcastle. Dutch Decoy. 1 point win. 3.75 WillHill, 3.25 various

Bet 4) 5.20 Southwell. Thecornishbarron. 1 point win. 4.5 various

Bet 5) 6.10 Thirsk. In Trutina. 0.5 points each-way. 7 PaddyPower, 6.5 various

 

Saturday 27th April

Bet 1) 2.55 Ripon*. Arecibo. 0.5 points each-way. 11 various

Bet 2) 3.30 Ripon. Making Miracles. 1 point win. 4 Bet365, 3.75 SkyBet, 3.5 various

Bet 3) 4.20 Haydock. This Girl. 1 point win. 6 various

Bet 4) 5.45 Doncaster. Taxiwala. 1 point win. 5 Bet365/BetVictor, 4.5 SkyBet

Bet 5) 7.00 Wolverhampton. Colony Queen. 1 point win. 4.5 WillHill/BetVictor, 4 various

1) There are three races at Ripon today featuring two runners from David O’Meara and as previously mentioned, the one ridden by Danny Tudhope in such circumstances has historically won twice as many times as O’Meara’s other runner(s). In the 2.20, the jockey bookings look based o familiarity rather than preference, but Arecibo looks interesting on is first run for the yard. Handicappers on stable debut have a profitable record over the years when ridden by Tudhope and an excellent one when O’Meara has multiple runners, albeit from a small sample.

2) A few options for Mark Johnston today, but his record when upping 3 year-olds in trip after a recent run and relatively weak stats in opposition make this the selection.

3) Similarly, there are a few runners for Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote at a track where they have had 76 winners together at a strike-rate above 1 in 5 and with an ROI of 48%. They also have a similarly excellent record together with 2 to 4 year-olds in handicaps with a recent run behind them.

4) Archie Watson is flying once again in lower class maidens and novice stakes- 8/11 this month and has a record of 21/73 with an ROI of 81% with those on debut, 11/29 when travelling over 200 miles and 39/133 (29%) when the only runner on a card

 

Friday 26th April

Good progress this month but no selections for tomorrow with too many having too many positives in many races. However, there’s going to be a lot of options for Saturday so it’s safe to expect the full five selections posted tomorrow (Friday) night.

Additionally, there will be an email sent tomorrow with some thoughts on Best Odds Guaranteed and an updated list of who is offering what and when.

 

Thursday 25th April

Bet 1) 2.15 Beverley. Baileys In Bloom. 0.375 points each-way. 7.5 WillHill, 7 various

Bet 2) 4.55 Beverley. Autretot. 0.5 points each-way. 13 BetVictor/PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook not BOG until 8am), 11 Boyles

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

1) This is another debutant for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan. The draw could have been kinder (will be coming out of stall 7 out of 8), hence the reduced stake, but in these early season 2 year-old races the quality is often wide ranging, so with the each-way option used we can still have a bit of insurance.

2) We had a win on Saturday from Three Saints Bay, running for David O’Meara and Danny Tudhope and this is another selection from the same angle. O’Meara does particularly well in the North and Scotlland with his young middle-distance handicappers. When partnered by the stables number one jockey, Tudope, this has delivered 83 winners since 2012 with 6 out of 8 profitable years and an overall ROI of 56% and a 25% strike-rate. With all other jockeys the same criteria has only produced a 10% strike-rate and a negative ROI of 20%.

Wednesday 24th April

6.4 was recorded for Greenpark Paradise as there was only one priced at 8 that didn’t last and then some may have applied a 10p deduction for non-runners.

Bet 1) 5.00 Epsom. Spirit Warning. 0.5 points each-way. 7 various

Bet 2) no more bets

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Andrew Balding (T) has gone a week without a win, but still has 19/82 since early March and 21 of his 27 winners this year have been with 3 year-olds, including 15/55 since the start of March. Oisin Murphy (J) has now ridden 151 winners for Balding and Balding has been profitable at Epsom in 9 of the last 12 years. When Murphy or David Probeert (J) have ridden for Balding on horses that have won or gone close in a recent run, they’ve had 144 winners in recent years at a rate close to 1 in 4 and an ROI of 32%.

 

Tuesday 23rd April

Bet 1) 4.05 Yarmouth. Solar Park 1 point win. 3.75 BetVictor/Bet365, 3.5 various

Bet 2) 4.35 Yarmouth. Point Zero. 0.75 points win. 7 various

Bet 3) 6.10 Wolverhampton*. Greenpark Paradise. 0.5 points each-way. 8 Bet365, 7 WillHill/BetVictor

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Monday 22nd April

Bet 1) 2.30 Redcar. Muatadel. 0.5 points each-way. 8 PaddyPower/Boyles (plus various non-BOGs), 7.5 WillHill

Bet 2) 4.15 Redcar. Spiritual Boy. 0.5 points each-way. 7 various

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Saturday 20th April

Five four tomorrow, including two in one race, then the next selections will be here Sunday night as usual.

Bet 1) 1.50 Musselburgh. Three Saints Bay. 0.375 points each-way. 10 various

Bet 2) 3.45 Kempton*. Shenanigans. 0.375 points each-way. 10 various

Bet 3) 4.50 Kempton. Sharja Silk. 0.75 points win. 4.5 WillHill/BetVictor, 4.33 various

Bet 4) 4.50 Kempton. Archimento. 0.375 points each-way. 17 various

Bet 5) 7.20 Brighton. Al Daayen. 0.375 points each-way. 8 various

 

Friday 19th April

I’m going to try to keep things as normal as possible over Easter, so there should be bets for Saturday here at the usual time on Friday evening.

Bet 1) 1.30 Lingfield. Lionhearted. 0.75 points win. 5.5 various

Bet 2) 2.10 Newcastle. Lufricia. 1 point win. 3.25 various

Bet 3) 2.55 Bath. Living Legend. 0.75 points win. 4.5 SkyBet/BetVictor, 4.33 various

Bet 4) 4.05 Bath. Queen of Desire. 0.75 points win. 4.33 PaddyPower, 4 various

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Thursday 18th April

Bet 1) 3.25 Ripon. Kupa River. 1 point win. 4 various

Bet 2) 4.00 Ripon. Epaulement. 1 point win. 3.5 Boyles/SkyBet/PaddyPower/Bet365

Bet 3) 5.25 Chelmsford. Frida Kahl. 1 point win. 4 Bet365, 3.5 various

Bet 4) 5.45 Ripon. Tan. 0.375 points each-way. 29 PaddyPower plus Betfair Sportsbook but not BOG until 8am, 21 various. 21 to be recorded.

Bet 5) 7.30 Chelmsford. Always Amazing. 1 point win. 6.5 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook), 6 various

High Command goes down as a loser but returned place money for finishing 4th with quite a few firms. I’ll add a column to the spreadsheet when I can indicating the difference in returns with the extra places (though often at 1/5th odds rather than ¼).

Bets tomorrow from a Roger Fell distance dropper, one for Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote, Archie Watson (who gave us both wins today), Mick Appleby in Apprentice Handicaps and the Shaw/Mathers/Chelmsford combo.

There’s also another Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan debutant that’s been overlooked due to short odds and in the same race David O’Meara also runs two. More notes to follow.

3)

Archie Watson has won with both of his 2 year-old debutants to run on the AW so far this year (and 2/4 on turf) and 7 out of his last 19 in the last two years. In total, his 2 year-olds have been profitable to bac outside of handicaps with 60 wins at a strike-rate of 22%.

Second favourite, The Lazy Monkey is trained by Mark Johnston who despite being prolific in many areas, has only had 4/48 with 2 year-old debutants on the AW in the last two years.

4)

Mick Appleby has a strike-rate of 22% and an ROI of 43% in Apprentice Handicaps in the last two years, including 7/15 with Mark Crehan.

5)

After a couple of early successes, recent selections for Shaw/Mathers/Chelmsford have met trouble in the run but performed better than finishing positions may suggest. With horses aged 4 or older running a mile or less, with a recent run behind them, the combination still shows a strike-rate above 1 in 5, an ROI of 91% since the start of 2015 and this is in contrast to all of Shaw’s other runners who, in the same period have a strike-rate of under 7% and an ROI of -14%. Always Aazing is yet to win for Shaw in 11 attempts, but this is the first time he’s been ridden at Chelmsford by Mathers.

Wednesday 17th April

Bet 1) 4.35 Beverley. Airshow. 1 point win. 3.25 BetVictor/PaddyPower, 3 various

Bet 2) 5.40 Beverley. Katinka. 1 point win. 3.75 various

Bet 3) 7.30 Southwell*. High Command. 0.5 points each-way. 8.5 various

Bet 4) 8.00 Southwell. Inspired Thought. 1 point win. 2.1 SkyBet/BetVictor, 2 various

Bet 5) no more bets

Two from Mick Appleby and two from Archie Watson tomorrow. There’s also the fifth debutant of the season running for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan (The Ginger Bullet, 2.15 Beverley) but they’ve had the worst of the draw at a course and distance where it plays a huge part, so it’s been passed over on this occasion.

Airshow has his first run since changing trainers to now be with Appleby- the same angle that gave us Casement last week. ‘Mick Appleby (T) has an excellent record with handicappers new to his yard, often showing significant improvement at the first time of asking. When a senior jockey is used and the horse returns from a break- giving the opportunity to improve in the interim- he’s been profitable for 7 years in row with a strike-rate of 30% from 35 winners.’ Now 36.

High Command also runs for Appleby and comes under the bringing in an apprentice angle with Mark Crehan and, as in this case, Theodore Ladd, the two apprentices generally used. This continues to produce winners and near misses- recent form reads 211102381323.

Katinka and Inspired Thought are both 3 year-olds running in the lower classes for Archie Watson in Novice Stakes. The trainer is prepared to send his charges to wherever gives them the best chance and a long trip from his Berkshire base is as good as a nod and a wink. After a slow start to the year, these have now won 5 of the last 6, albeit mainly at low prices.

 

Tuesday 16th April

Bet 1) 1.50 Newmarket*. Flavius Titus. 0.5 points each-way. 10 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook), 9 BetVictor/WillHill/Bet365

Bet 2) 4.45 Newmarket. Alandalos. 1 point win. 2.875 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook), 2.75 various

Bet 3) 6.15 Wolverhampton. Mystical Moon. 1 point win. 5.5 SkyBet/Bet365/PaddyPower

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Courtside, today, was 2nd and was another for the strand when David O’Meara has multiple runners as described for Saturday for Humbert. Unfortunately, we’ve had three of these bets so far this year with two being won by the other O’Meara horse and Humbert going well until becoming lame and being pulled up. However, this is an element that’s been reliable for a number of years and is entirely logical as it makes sense that the yard’s resident number one jockey gets the pick of the rides (other than occasions when choices are made due to familiarity) and over a greater number o bets is likely to correct itself.

We had two more debutants on Saturday or Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan. These have now given two wins and one place return from four bets (the other missed the break), so looks to have got off to a strong start.

Once there are more turf meetings, the options will increase greatly and with the reduced number of selections this year, we’ll be able to concentrate on the strands that are going well.

1)

Roger Varian (T) and Andrea Atzeni (J) have now passed 250 winners together at a rate slightly above 1 in 5. Varian does well with his handicappers aged 4 or older returning from a break with a strike-rate close to 1 in 4 which improves to 38% wit Atzeni in the saddle and has been profitable for 6 years in a row. A few other trainers in the top of the market are not firing in winners, including Ed Walker (5/95) and Joseph Tuite (2 wins in 5 months).

2)

Charlie Hills trains a number of horses for Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum (O) and has had 44 winners in the last four years with 2 and 3 year olds outside of handicaps with a 23% strike-rate and 66% ROI, a rate which improves to 35% after a break. With the owner also running the third favourite, the jockey bookings- both retained to ride for the owner- confirm the preference.

3)

David Griffiths (T) had a losing run of 58 at the end of last year but has since had 11 wins in handicaps from 45, all at 7 furlongs or less. In contrast, there are a number of other trainers involved here who are currently out of form.

Monday 15th April

Bet 1) 2.50 Pontefract. Courtside. 1 point win. 4.33 various

No more bets

Notes to follow

 

Saturday 13th April

Bet 1) 2.00 Thirsk. Kidda. 1 point win. 5 various

Bet 2) 2.30 Thirsk. Ventura Rebel. 1 point win. 4 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbokk not BOG until 8am), 3.75 various

Bet 3) Newbury (5 places with most which will be recorded, 6 with some). Humbert. 0.375 points each-way. 26 Willhill/Betvictor, 23 Bet365 (plus Marathon, not BOG, and Betway BOG after 10am)

Bet 4) 6.00 Wolverhampton. Dotted Swiss. 0.375 points each-way. 15 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook), 13 various

Bet 5) no more bets

Gwaith was another big drifter but ran well- badly hampered close to home when still fighting and would otherwise have gone close- again underlining the importance of BOG if possible, especially at this time of year with both debutants and horses returning from long breaks.

1) and 2) are both debutants for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan and with Fahey having a number of entrants in bigger races at Newbury, it could be a significant pointer that his No. 1 jockey stays at Thirsk. We’ve had a win and place returns from the first two from this angle so far this year.

3) David O’Meara runs two in this and yet his main man, Danny Tudhope, opts for the one at the bigger price. Humbert has already had a run on turf this season and this is the first time Tudhope as been back on board since partnering Humbert to his last win, 14 months ago. Backing Tudhope’s mount when O’Meara has two or more running in the sae race will have given a profit since O’Meara began training whereas those not ridden by Tudhope have produced a significant loss and a strike-rate half of Tudhope’s.

4) Archie Watson has won 7/20 in Amateur Handicaps on the AW. He has a similar record in Claiming/Selling Stakes and it’s clear that he targets races that are different to normal handicaps to maximise returns (horses winning in Amateur or Apprentice Handicaps can run again without a penalty).

Friday 12th April

Bet 1) 5.20 Newbury. Fabulist. 1 point win. 2.1 SkyBet, 2 various

Bet 2) 6.15 Kempton. Ghaith. 0.75 points win. (7 Betfair Sportsbook, not BOG until 8am) 6.5 various

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

A bit of an annoying day today with no joy with our selections and Ben Haslem having two winners tonight at Newcastle that we’d backed there the last time they ran. On the other hand, there have been a few others avoided today and recently that we’d backed previously (including three for the Shaw/Mathers/Chelmsford angle this afternoon) that have lost and there will always be both a element of subjectivity involved and some situations that look to be stronger than others. Inevitably there will be times when positive stats and observations are not used that still go onto win. It’s probably a glass half-full or half-empty situation.

Waqaas was a non-runner in our speculative bet today and the other two finished out of the places. But, if and when such a situation presents itself I feel it’s worth have a small stake because of the potential rewards involved, even if many fail- even at the small stakes involved today, if all three had merely placed, by my rough calculations, around 18 and a bit points would have been returned.

Regarding Aintree, the results are now on a separate tab on the results spreadsheet and show 19.6 points staked and a loss of 4.7 points. However, there were two or three that could have added returns if backed with firms offering enhanced places, another couple that would have finished in the places were it not for late non-runners, an unlikely number of narrow margins all go against and a decent number of double-figure prices run well in defeat with many giving place returns. Putting that all together, while it’s hard to be too positive about something that made a loss, my feeling is that there was more than enough evidence to suggest it’ll be worth future attempts along those lines.

 

Thursday 11th April

Khafooq ran well but found one better, It Must Be Faith wasn’t far away in 4th and Laqab was very well supported but ended up in a 3-way photo for 2nd and came 4th. I was slow out of the blocks this morning so not quite there with Aintree which will have to follow tomorrow.

Bet 1) 2.00 Chelmsford. Don’t Do It. 1 point win. 7 Bet365, 6 BetVictor, 5.5 various (5.5 to be recorded)

Bet 2) 5.50 Chelmsford. Cash N Carrie. 0.5 points each-way. 9 BetVictor/Bet365, 8.5 various

Bet 3) 6.30 Newcastle. Distant Mirage. 1 point win. 6 WillHill/BetVictor, 5.5 various

Bet 4) 7.00 Newcastle. What Will Be. 1 point win. 3.75 WillHill/BetVictor, 3.5 various

Bet 5) Three horses for Mark Usher (T) all at Chelmsford to be staked as singles (0.05 pts each-way for each, so a total of 0.1 pts for each x 3 = 0.3 pts total for singles) and as an each-way Trixie (also 0.05 points per bet- 8 bets x 0.05 pts = 0.4 pts). This gives a total of 0.7 points staked. 2.00 Chantresse, 4.10 Waqaas, 4.40 Mezmarr. (If uncertain, please email me.)

BetVictor 23, 34, 17, WillHill/Ladbrokes 21, 34, 17, PaddyPower 17, 34, 21, Coral 21, 34, 17

Notes:

5)

This is very speculative, so keeping stakes low is recommended. Mark Usher has hit a purple patch with 7 winners in recent weeks after a long losing run, including 4 out of 6 at Chelmsford (just 1 winner here in previous 31 runs over 11 months). He doesn’t visit the course as often as other AW tracks but has three switched to Chelmsford tomorrow due to increased prize money.

1) and 2) both run for Mick Appleby, the first in an Apprentice Handicap and the second is another case where he brings in an apprentice to lighten the load, often with positive results. Cash N Carrie was a previous selection (gave us place returns) but has since run again with a senior rider (and was also stepped up in trip) and now drops back down again into a weaker race and the tactic is being repeated.

3) Another for James Tate who gave us Percy Alexander on Saturday. Tate only sends one to Newcastle for this 3 year-old handicap which is also the sort of race he does particularly well in. Jamie Spencer is booked at a track where his style is particularly suited and he has a 26% record including a win the only time he’s ridden for Tate here previously.

4)

Spencer also rides this one, but for Olly Murphy and the pair are 4/12 together, including 1/1 at Newcastle. Small numbers, but Murphy has only ever saddled 8 other AW winners. Murphy rarely sends any to Newcastle and like Usher has had a series of wins lately (6/32) after 9 months without one and has also had 9 in the places.

 

Wednesday 10th April

I aim to review Aintree in the morning and comment on that tomorrow night.

Bet 1) 2.00 Nottingham. Khafooq. 0.5 points each-way. 9 WillHill, 8. various

Bet 2) 3.55 Lingfield. It Must Be Faith. 0.75 points win (only 7 runners). 7.5 BetVictor/Bet365, 6.5 various

Bet 3) 4.35 Kempton. Laqab. 0.375 points each-way. 26 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Two tomorrow that have failed for us before but run in different circumstances.

It Must Be Faith ran for us for the angle when Mick Appleby brings in an apprentice whereas this time is selected because of Appleby’s record being far superior in Claiming/Selling Stakes than his rival trainers tomorrow.

Laqab was a selection for the Derek Shaw / Paddy Mathers / Chelmsford angle, but now is of interest due to dropping in class and trip, both of which Shaw has a positive record with. In the last three years Shaw has hit with over 1 in 5 when dropping in trip on the AW with a 96% ROI

Khafooq is on the list due to Robert Cowell’s record with handicappers having their first run of the season in certain conditions. His 3 to 6 year-olds returning for their first handicap of the season have been profitable for five years in a row, winning at 24% and more than doubling stakes. He’s a trainer who specialises with sprinters and all his wins have been at 5 to 6 furlongs.

 

Tuesday 9th April

Bet 1) 2.30 Pontefract. Casement. 1 point win. 3.75 SkyBet (plus Unibet), 3.5 various

Bet 2) 3.00 Pontefract. Rochester House. 1 point win. 2.25 various

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

1)

Mick Appleby (T) has an excellent record with handicappers new to his yard, often showing significant improvement at the first time of asking. When a senior jockey is used and the horse returns from a break- giving the opportunity to improve in the interim- he’s been profitable for 7 years in row with a strike-rate of 30% from 35 winners.

2)

Only two trainers are involved in this. Ralph Beckett has not been firing recently- 3/40 since December and only 1/20 since last April with 3 year-olds returning from a break.

An angle with Mark Johnston’s 3 year-olds is when they run well- winning or going close- and are then turned out again quickly and stepped up in distance. In the last decade this has produced 58 winners on turf at a rate of 29% and an ROI of 24%, providing a profit of 24%, including a profit in 4 of the last 5 seasons. Johnston continues to be in fine form, especially with his 3 year-olds with 9/41 in the last month.

 

Monday 8th April

A recap will follow during the week.

Bet 1) 2.20 Windsor. Brother Bentley. 0.5 points each-way. 15 various

Bet 2) 4.00 Redcar. On The Line. 1 point win. (3.75 Marathon) 3.5 various

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Saturday 6th April

Aintree selections for today are underneath. Back to normal after today with anything for Monday posted on Sunday night. By the way, I came across this earlier so thought I’d mention it in case it’s of interest to anyone- RacingTV have an offer of £10 a month for 10 months for today only…

https://www.racingtv.com/racingtvoffers/grandnational

Bet 1) 6.00 Wolverhampton. Percy Alexander. 1 point win. 7.5 Betfair Sportsbook, 7 various

Bet 2) no more bets

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Aintree Selections for Saturday 6th April

Selections for elsewhere will follow at 11am.

1.45 (Most 5 places which will be recorded but worth checking, SkyBet 6 places)

Burbank. 0.2 points each—way. 29 Ladbrokes, 26 various

Coolanly. 0.2 points each—way. 13 various

Sire Du Berlais. 0.4 points win. (5.5 Marathon) 5 various

Theclockisticking. 0.2 points each—way. 19 Boyles/Ladbrokes/PaddyPower (Betfair Sportsbook)

2.25

Brewinupastorm. 0.6 points win. 3.75 various

3.40 (3 places to be recorded but 4 available in some places)

Roksana. 0.3 points each-way. 11 BetVictor/PaddyPower (Betfair Sportsbook/Unibet)

Sam Spinner. 0.3 points each-way. 6 various

William Henry. 0.3 points each-way. 15 PaddyPower, 13 various

4.20 (4 places standard, 5 available with some, 6 with SkyBet)

Kildisart. 0.3 points each-way. 8 various

 

Selections for Friday 5th April

Selections for Aintree for Friday are underneath and selections for Aintree on Saturday will be here at 7pm on Friday night, then normal selections for elsewhere will follow at 11am on Saturday morning.

Bet 1) 2.00 Leicester. Mr Fudge. 0.5 points each-way. (BOG particularly recommended) 6.5 various

Bet 2) 4.50 Leicester. Stealth Fighter. 1 point win. 4 Bet365/BetVictor, 3.5 various

Bet 3) 6.00 Wolverhampton. Dangerous Ends. 0.75 points win. (10 PaddyPower plus Betfair Sportsbook, 6.5 various not BOGs until morning) 6 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

We had success on Saturday with the first  2 year-old debutant of the year for Richard Fahey (T) and Paul Hanagan (J) and Mr Fudge is their 2nd. They’ve won 18/51 in March/April. These early season races often expose great gulfs in quality making them solid each-way bets due to often having few with any chance. Also with no form in the book there can be more support for those who have had a run causing big drifts in some debutants, so BOG is particularly recommended as we’ve had some winners previously that have drifted massively.

Saeed Bin Suroor (T of Stealth Fighter) has a record of +20% with 2 to 4 year-olds in handicaps returning from a break in each of the last 13 years and a profit made in all but two of those. With Godolpin’s sights set higher, the younger horses are kept if showing improvement and moved on if not, so the mere perseverance is a suggestion that more is expected and improvement has been made in the intervening period.

Dangerous Ends is our second for Brett Johnson and Callum Shepherd. Johnson does particularly well with middle-distance runners, with his record strongest on the AW, in handicaps and wit Shepherd in the saddle. He rarely runs away from Lingfield or Kempton, but the 25% record held at Wolverhampton suggests more is expected when traveling further afield.

 

Aintree on Friday 5th April

Forest Bihan was a non-runner. Some decent runs but small margins went against us on a luckless day. The opener became a 3-way battle and Mengli Khan was the one to miss out. Fakir D’Oudairies lost by a neck and in the same race Adjali missed out on place returns at 33/1 also by a neck. Melon was leading when falling out, hampering Ch’tbello in the process but he rallied to go down by under 2 lengths and missed out on place returns after two later non-runners brought the places down to 2. We did get place returns from Champagne At Tara but non-runners removed the enhanced place terms with most bookies meaning Brelan D’As’s 5th goes down as a loser.

Five races down, twelve to go…

1.45 (5 in most places, 6 SkyBet, 7 Hills)

Brio Conti. 0.2 points each-way. (7.5 Bet365, 4 places) 7 various

Knight In Dubai. 0.2 points each-way. 17 Coral/BetVictor (plus Betfair Sportsbook), 15 various

Sternrubin. 0.2 points each-way. (26 PaddyPower plus Betfair Sportsbook, 21 Bet365), 19 various

Mohaayed. 0.2 points each-way. 29 PaddyPower/BetVictor (plus Betfair Sportsbook)

Canardier. 0.2 points each-way. 10 PaddyPower plus Betfair Sportsbook, 9 various

2.20

Itchy Feet. 0.6 points win. 4.5 PaddyPower (plus Unibet/Betfair Sportsbook/BlackType)

2.50 (this is how it’ll be recorded but up to you how to play it)

Lostintranslation. 0.6 points win. 4.5 various

Topofthegame. 0.6 points win. 1.8 various

3.25

Politologue. 0.6 points win. (4 BlackType) 3.5 various

Hell’s Kitchen. 0.3 points each-way. (15 Marathon) 13 various

4.05 (5 places with most, 6 with some)

Actival. 0.3 points each-way. 26 various

Flying Angel. 0.3 points each-way. 21 various

4.40

Dallas Des Pictons. 0.6 points win. (6 Unibet) 5.5 various

Champ. 0.6 points win. (4.33 BlackType, 4 Unibet) 3.75 various

Thursday 4th April

Bets for Aintree running on Thursday are underneath. A long day and I’ll add notes on these after a long sleep. Bets for Aintree running on Friday will be here at 8pm on Thursday.

Bet 1) 2.30 Southwell. Barossa Red. 1 point win. 2.75 various

Bet 2) 6.30 Chelmsford. Samphire Coast. 0.75 points win. 5.5 BetVictor/Bet365 (plus Unibet), 5 various

Bet 3) 8.00 Chelmsford. Dynamo Walt. 0.5 points each-way. 15 Bet365, 13 BetVictor, 12 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Barossa Red runs in this maiden for Andrew Balding who has won 6 in 8 of these races so far this year. As a rule of thumb with Balding in these, the more the horse has run previously, the more likely he or she is to win- just 6% strike-rate with debutants, rising to 33% on their 6th to 13th run. David Probert travels to Southwell for this one ride before making his way to Chelmsford.

Samphire Coast and Dynamo Walt both come under the Derek Shaw / Paddy Mathers / Chelmsford angle. Both conform to this angle with combined figures of 9 wins and 7 further places from 34 runs at the track for this trainer and jockey.

Aintree, Thursday 4th April

(‘Normal’ selections for tomorrow will follow at the usual time.)

The selections here are the result of the analysis that was emailed earlier and can also be found here https://www.bettingrant.co.uk/aintree-2019-trends-analysis-50516. I’m going to advise reduced stakes of 0.6 points (0.3 e/w) for each selection in non-handicaps and 0.4 points (0.2 e/w) for handicaps because this is something new, it will give a large number of selections over the three days and also because there will be more than one pick in many of the races.

However, the process has been detailed, so if you wish to stake more or less or use only as a guide in addition to other thoughts then it’s ultimately up to you how you use this information.

Good luck!

1.45 (only 6 runners but e/w is my suggestion)

Spiritofthegames. 0.3 points each-way. 10 various

Mengli Khan. 0.3 points each-way. 9 various

2.20

Fakir Doudairies. 0.6 points win. 5 Bet365/WillHill (plus 888Sport, not BOG until morning), 4.5 various

Fanfare Seuil. 0.3 points each-way. (29 PaddyPower/Betfair Sportsbook- BS not BOG until 8am), 21 various

Adjali. 0.3 points each-way. 34 various

2.50

Bristol De Mai. 0.6 points win. 4.5 PaddyPower & various non-BOGs, 4.33 various

Road To Respect. 0.6 points win. 6 SkyBet/WillHill/BetVictor/PaddyPower

3.25

Melon. 0.3 points each-way. 10 Ladbrokes/WillHill/PaddyPower/BetVictor

Faugheen. 0.3 points each-way. 7 various

Ch’tbello. 0.3 points each-way. 23 Bet365 (plus Betway, not BOG until 10am), 21 WillHill/BetVictor

4.40 (Almost all paying to 5 places which will be recorded, but worth checking before placing)

Brelan D’As. 0.2 points each-way. 9 various

Eamon An Cnoic. 0.2 points each-way. 6.5 PaddyPower/Boyles (plus Betfair Sportsbook, not BOG until 8am and Bet365 but 4 places)

Whatswrongwithyou. 0.2 points each-way. 17 WillHill/BetVictor (5 places), Coral (4 places), 15 various

Forest Bihan. 0.2 points each-way. 17 WillHill/BetVictor (5 places), Ladbrokes/Bet365 (4 places)

Champagne At Tara. 0.2 points each-way. 21 various

 

Wednesday 3rd April

Please Note: An email will be sent tomorrow with a bonus report I’ve put together ahead of Aintree’s 3-day National meeting. I hope this is of interest and it will also provide some extra selections, in addition to the normal daily picks, for Thursday to Saturday and the first of these selections will be posted here on Wednesday evening at 8pm and then the usual post will follow at 10pm.

Bet 1) 4.25 Southwell. Just Wait. 1 point win. 3.25 various

Bet 2) 5.10 Kempton. Dragon Zuka. 0.75 points win. 5 various

Bet 3) 5.25 Southwell. Molten Lava. 0.75 points win. 5.5 various

Bet 4) 6.15 Kempton. Regular. 1 point win. 5 various

Bet 5) no more bets

Brief notes

1)

Another for Mark Johnston (T) who has a positive and profitable record with handicap debutants returning from a break, especially at Southwell where his handicap debutants have won with 16/44 in the last decade with an 84% ROI.

Sean Davis (J on Royal Cosmic) is yet to have a UK winner and rides at Southwell for the first time.

2)

Hugo Palmer (T) as a profitable record with sprint handicappers on the AW, especially 3 year-olds and runners dropping in class and especially at Kempton.

Charlie Fellowes (T of favourite Pentland Lad) is yet to have a win from a 3 year-old this year and is on a losing run of 24 overall.

3)

Molten Lava fits a Southwell specific system I’ve been using that has been profitable for 8 years in a row.

4)

Regular runs for Michael Bell (T) who has a profitable record with 3 year-old sprint handicappers on the AW, has a 50% ROI when only having one runner on an AW card, a profitable record with 3 year-olds returning from a break, handicap debutants on the AW and James Doyle (J) has ridden 108 winners on the AW in the last two years at a profitable strike-rate of 33%.

 

Tuesday 2nd April

Alwasmiya was a late non-runner on Saturday.

Bet 1) 3.00 Lingfield. Café Espresso. 1 point win. 2.375 various

Bet 2) 3.45 Musselburgh. Saint Equiano. 0.375 points each-way. 9 SkyBet/BetVictor (plus Betfair Sportsbook), 8.5 various

Bet 3) 4.45 Musselburgh. Iron Mike. 0.375 points each-way. 12 Coral/Ladbrokes/Bet365/BetVictor

Bet 4) 5.25 Wolverhampton*. Ursus Belle. 0.5 points each-way. 8.5 WillHill/BetVictor, 8 Ladbrokes/Coral

Bet 5) 6.00 Wolverhampton. Zapper Cass. 0.5 points each-way. 8 WillHill/BetVictor (plus Betfair Sportsbook), 7.5 various

Brief notes:

1)

Archie Watson (T) has won 12 from 25 in Claiming/Selling Stakes, including 9/15 on the AW, which includes 9/11 at odds of 3.5 or less.

2 and 3)

Both run for Keith Dalgleish. For many years he has had a prolific and profitable record with handicappers in lower classes running on decent ground at either sprint or middle-distances. He picks his races carefully- often entering the same horse into multiple races over the course of a few days- and jockey bookings also provide a pointer. He had a below par 2018, but has returned to normal form in recent months and prior to last year, the criteria looked for had been profitable in 6 out of 7 years.

4)

‘Irish Raider’ John James Fearne has won 20/78 in the UK, including 11/34 in 2018 and 4/18 at Wolverhampton. He makes the journey from County Kildare with only this runner.

5)

Another when Mick Appleby takes 7lbs off by bringing in Mark Crehan.

 

Monday 1st April

Bet 1) 7.15 Newcastle. Blazing Dreams. 1 point win. 4.5 WillHill/BetVictor, 4 various

Bet 2) no more bets

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Selections for Saturday 30th March

Midnight Vixen will be recorded as a loser, but returned 3.375 points with many bookies for finishing 4th of 14 at 40/1.

It’s always a relief to end a losing spell, even if it’s only a small step in the right direction. It’s probably worth mentioning that the one we’ve just experienced equalled the worst losing run of the whole of last year, so while they do happen from time to time, if you’ve coped with that you should be able to cope with anything else that happens in the coming months. It’s a shame it happened so early in the year, but let’s hope the next one is some time off, isn’t as long and that by then we’re playing with profit.

Pleasingly from my point of view there have only been two curt grumbles as it achieves absolutely nothing and needless to say they were from two who hadn’t read the user guide and ignored any staking and bank management advice. Hmmm.

Plenty of options for tomorrow, so I’m hopeful of a strong day to finish the month…

Bet 1) 2.40 Kempton*. Alwasmiya. 0.5 points each-way. 7.5 PaddyPower/BetVictor/Bet365 (plus Betfair Sportsbook)

Bet 2) 4.10 Doncaster. Show Me Show Me. 1 point win. 6.5 SkyBet/BetVictor, 6 various

Bet 3) 4.45 Doncaster. Just You Wait. 1 point win. 3.5 Bet365, 3.25 BetVictor, 3 various

Bet 4) 6.00 Southwell. It Must Be Faith. 0.5 points each-way. 9 various

Bet 5) 8.00 Southwell. Geography Teacher. 1 point win. 6 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook), 5.5 various

The turf returns and so do two previously successful angles. Some of the larger yards tend to give debuts as early in the season as possible to those holding their greatest expectations in order to make best use of them through the season.

2) Richard Fahey’s best chances tend to be ridden by senior stable jockey Paul Hanagan. The pair have had 6 wins from 10 with 2 year-old debutants in March previously and a profitable and prolific record normally extends into the opening months of the season (with much larger numbers). Fahey has won this race- the first for 2yr-olds each year- twice in the last 6 years he’s had a runner in it and placed in two of the others.

3) Similarly, Godophin trainer, Charlie Appleby (not to be confused with Mick) has won 19/44 with debutants in March, April or May in the last two years. This actually increases to 14/26 when Godolphin’s retained rider William Buick has been in the sadde. With Buick looking for headlines elsewhere tomorrow, Godolphin’s other retained rider James Doyle is on board. (As an aside, former jockey George Baker is now acting as agent for both riders.)

BOG particularly recommended with these debutants.

4) Another for the angle when Mick Appleby brings in apprentice to lighten the load as previously detailed. It’s given us a collection of place returns so far, let’s hope this one goes a place or two better.

1) Alwasmiya runs for trainer Simon Crisford. Crisford is 9/25 with AW handicappers returning from an absence (143% ROI), has a profitable 23% strike-rate with AW sprint handicappers, profitable 60 winners at 22% strike-rate with only one runner on an AW card, profitable 21% strike-rate at Kempton, profitable 26% strike-rate with class droppers, 23% strike-rate with Jack Mitchell (J).

5) Roger Fell (T of Geography Teacher) is 11/43 in the last year with Ben Curtis (J), more than doubling stakes and has a similar record with 3 year-old handicappers and has had 15 winners at Southwell- more than at any other track- at a rate of around 1 in 5, almost trebling stakes. Curtis has been profitable to back at this course in 5 of the last 6 years, with his 51 winners returning an ROI of 49%.

 

Friday 29th March

Bet 1) 2.00 Lingfield. In The Red. 1 point win. 3 various

Bet 2) 6.30 Newcastle*. Midnight Vixen. 0.375 points each-way. 26 various

Bet 3) 8.30 Newcastle. Canford Bay. 1 point win. 4.33 Bet365, 4 WillHill/BetVictor, 3.75 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

1)

Owen Lewis (J of Bin Daahir) has his first ever ride. Les Eyre (T of Golden Guest), Wiiam Muir (T of Cuttin’ Edge) and Daniel Mark Loughnane (T of Dark Alliance) are all on losing runs, while Lee Carter (T of Dark Alliance) has only moderate form- 3/47 in AW handicaps in last six months.

Martin Smith (T of In The Red) has had over half his runners win or place this year, including 7/10 (placing) of his most recent AW handicappers. His record with Adam Kirby reads 1101322. No other rider has won as many races at Lingfied in recent years as Kirby.

2)

Ben Haslam (T of Midnight Vixen) is worth keeping an eye on at Newcastle. In the last 3 years he’s 19/134 (14.18%) here, more than doubling stakes, whereas at all other tracks he’s 14/257 (5.45%). His 4-6 year-old handicappers at 9f or less are 8/29 at Newcastle in the last year, contributing 40% of his winners from 16% of his runners. He doesn’t enter many Apprentice Handicaps, but the only previous time he was represented in one at Newcastle he was victorious and was using tomorrow’s rider.

3)

Anthony Brittain (T of Canford Bay) has an improving record, year-by-year, especially with AW sprint handicappers. He’s already exceeded last year’s tally with a 22% strike-rate and more than doubling stakes this year. 18/40 have won or placed so far this year.

Susan Corbett (T of market rival Gowanbuster is on a losing run of 40 lasting over a year. Richard Fahey (T of Danehill Desert) is on an unusual lean spell, yet to have a winner this month.

 

Thursday 28th March

Bet 1) 2.20 Wolverhampton. French Twist. 1 point win. 5.5 Bet365 (pus 888Sport), 5 various

Bet 2) 3.25 Woverhampton. Dream World. 1 point win. 4.5 PaddyPower (Betfair Sportsbook, 888Sport), 4.33 various

Bet 3) 7.30 Chelmsford. Rose Berry. 1 point win. 3.5 various

Bet 4) 8.00 Chelmsford*. Le Manege Enchante. 0.5 points each-way. 12 PaddyPower (Betfair Sportsbook), 11 various

Bet 5) no more bets

Notes:

1)

In a race in which the favourite runs for a yard on a long losing run and one that’s never had a 3 year-old winner on the AW, backing the Mark Johnston (T) runner looks an appealing option. As previously mentioned, Johnston has made a strong start to the year, including 19/68 in 3 year-old handicaps and 18/61 with Joe Fanning (J). Overall, Johnston has a profitable record in such races, especially when dropping in class, at Wolverhampton and in the first three months of the year (when 3 year-olds are normally face their own age opponents).

2)

We’ve now had 4 places and a refused to run from 5 selections running for Mick Appleby. Another angle with him is when his new recruits make their first appearance for their new trainer in handicaps after a break. Here we’re looking for when he doesn’t use an apprentice. This has been a profitable angle for 7 years in a row, giving 35/115 and tripling stakes.

3)

Charlie Wallis (T) has had wins from 3 of his last 4 sprint handicappers after a lean period. Clearly back on track he should be able to continue an angle with his 4 year-olds and older that has been profitable 5 winters in a row. Although they have rarely worked together, the booking of Champion Jockey Silvestre De Sousa is an obvious positive.

4)

One more for the Derek Shaw (T)/ Paddy Mathers (J) / Chelmsford (um, course) strand in races a mile or under and with horses with a recent run behind them. This has more than doubled stakes in the last four years since the course reopened, profitable in each year with 17/77 (at all other courses the same criteria has produced just 11/182).

 

Wednesday 27th March

A losing few days for the first time since mid-Feb. Then it was more than reversed the following day with 3 wins and a place from 5 selections. With 3 meetings and 5 selections there’s the chance for lightning to strike twice, but that of course is not always going to happen so it’s probably worth repeating the comment from last month: ‘it’s been a few winless days. I must say to anybody new to this that that isn’t abnormal or especially unusual- it will happen quite a few times over the coming months. But, there will also be plenty of winning sequences too. Hopefully the next one will be tomorrow, but it could be a week next Tuesday, who knows. The crucial thing I’d ask of you is to not stake too much so that you can take it all in your stride and very much be in the game when a purple patch comes along. (There’s more advice on this in the user guide.)’

Bet 1) 4.30 Southwell. Alba Del Sole. 1 point win. 6 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook), 5 various

Bet 2) 5.05 Southwell. Red Touch. 0.5 points each-way. 10 Bet365 (plus Betway), 9.5 BetVictor/Coral (plus various non-BOGs)

Bet 3) 7.00 Kempton. Cash N Carrie. 0.5 points each-way. 11 various

Bet 4) 7.30 Kempton. Crystal Casque. 1 point win. 7 Bet365, 6.5 various

Bet 5) 8.00 Kempton. Call Out Loud. 0.5 points each-way. 8 various

1)

Alba Del Sole: As recently mentioned, Ivan Furtado (T)… ‘Ivan Furtado (T) has come back into form this month after a lean spell. He has a positive and profitable record when bringing in apprentices to lighten the load, particularly Gabriel Malune (J). Furtado has been profitable to back in AW sprint handicaps for 4 years in a row, especially at Southwell where his 23% strike-rate would have more than doubled stakes. This increases to 5/13 at Southwell when his runner is down in trip.’ All applies here.

4)

Crystal Casque: Rod Millman (T) is in great form- 5 wins from last 15 runs- which stands out because he’d ony had 1 in the previous 4 months, suggesting an upturn from his other inmates is likely. His record with Oisin Murphy is 5/17 in the last two years (10/98 with all other jockeys) in AW handicaps.In the last 5 years he has a 20% record with his AW handicappers returning from a 4 month break or longer and with Murphy riding the record reads 11308114.

2, 3, 5)

Unusually we have three from Mick Appleby. At Southwell he teams up with Serena Brotherton and their record together is 7/33 with 18 places in Amateur Rider races. Like Apprentice contests, Appleby has a very consistent and profitable record in Amateur Races in the last four years- only Tim and Mick Easterby have won more of these in that period, while Brotherton and Simon Walker lead the riders’ table. There are some very inexperienced riders in opposition- 8 are without a win on the AW- and trainers with poor records in these contests.

At Kempton we have the angle when Appleby brings in Mark Crehan to take off 7lbs. Their record is 8/23 when Crehan replaces a non-claimer in a handcap. We haven’t had a win from this yet but have had place returns from Admiral Rooke (2nd at 25/1) and Glory of Paris (2nd at 7/1). Cash N Carrie has been dropped 7lbs this year so is now able to run in a 0-50 and with Crehan adding to that is now carrying a lot less. Running in unsuitable conditions the last twice, this looks like a plot. The same tactic is being used with Call Out Loud who is effectively 8lbs better off and able to drop two classes.

Tuesday 26th March

Just two selections for tomorrow. Wednesday has three meetings so is likely to be a full-house. Notes on these two will follow.

Bet 1) 6.30 Wolverhampton. Just Benjamin. 1 point win. 3.75 SkyBet, 3.5 various

Bet 2) 7.00 Wolverhampton. Havana Rocket. 1 point win. 2.5 various

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Notes:

1)

Just Benjamin: Wiliam Haggas (T) 11/32 so far this year. Career record 62/157 in Novice Stakes when horse won or lost by under 5 lengths on last run. 59/170 when having only one runner on an AW card since 2017, including 17/37 (46%) at Wolverhampton.

Dark Miracle (Favourite): Marco Botti (T) on a losing run of 26 and just 4/82 since December, including 2/53 with 3 year-olds.

2)

Havana Rocket: Andrew Balding (T) a 31% strike-rate with 3 year-olds on handicap debut on the AW who won last time out. Four wins and three 2nd from 9 runs with 3 year-olds this month and 7 wins from 16 runs overall this month. 13/30 in AW handicaps with 3 ear-olds who won last time out, including 9/22 with Oisin Murphy (J). Murphy 23/81 on AW so far this year.

Monday 25th March UPDATED

Bet 1 advised last night) 3.30 Lingfield*. Le Torrent. 0.5 points each-way. 11 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook, not BOG until 8am), 10 various

Bet 2) 6.15 Wolverhampton. Bannockburn. 0.25 points each-way. 51 Boyles/Betway/Betfair Sportsbook/SkyBet/PaddyPower/BetVictor

Bet 3) 6.45 Wolverhampton. Distant Mirage. 1 point win. 4 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Notes:

1)

Runs for Simon Dow (T) and Tom Marquand (J) who gave us Subliminal last week. Dow has been profitable to back in AW handicaps in 7 of the last 9 years, with almost half his wins coming at Lingfied. With Marquand anywhere, the pair have a 20% record at 46% ROI. Dow is also profitable with runners dropping in class and when having only one runner on a card.

2)

Most trainers involved in the 6.15 have poor stats in Novice Stakes. Keith Dagleish (T) is an exception so it may be worth a speculative small stake.

Dalgleish has been in decent form- 11/58 since start of December. He’s not exactly prolific in such races as today’s, but his 32 wins have come with an ROI of 50% including some big priced winners. Bannockburn has his 2nd career run and Dalgeish wins with more than twice as many on their second run to their first, suggesting improvement is likely. This is a figure on the increase- in the last five years his inmates having a 2nd run on the flat have won at 21%. Those that won or lost on debut by 5 lengths or under have shown an ROI of 43% on their next start, whereas those who lost by further (such as Bannockburn) have only then won around 1 in 7 times but have an ROI of 86%.

3)

Another selection running for James Tate (T), more than ticking boxes previously mentioned- in form, positive record in 3 year-old handicaps, at the track, with only one runner on the card and with David Allan (J).

Monday 25th March

An unusual amount to go at for a Monday. Although it’s only resulted in one selection, there was a lot to look at and check for Lingfield and rather than rush, I’ll add any selections for Wolverhampton at 11am (first race 5pm).

Bet 1) 3.30 Lingfield*. Le Torrent. 0.5 points each-way. 11 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook, not BOG until 8am), 10 various

Bet 2) may follow in an update at 11am

Bet 3) may follow in an update at 11am

Bet 4) may follow in an update at 11am

Bet 5) may follow in an update at 11am

Selections for Saturday 23rd March

Elhafei was a non-runner today.

Bet 1) 2.00 Lingfield. Rakematiz. 1 point win. 6.5 BetVictor/Bet365, 6 SkyBet/WillHill

Bet 2) 5.25 Kempton. Mushaageb. 0.5 points each-way. 8 various

Bet 3) 6.30 Kempton. She’s Apples. 0.5 points each-way. 9 various

Notes:

1)

Raematiz: Brett Johnson (T) profitable in all handicaps at Lingfield. Strike-rate of 22% with Callum Shepherd (J) in AW handicaps with an ROI of 136%. Johnson 11/43 in middle-distance AW handicaps since start of 2017.

Sotomayor: Jane Chappel-Hyam (T) 3/85 since beginning 2018 on AW.

Gendarme: Alex Dunn (T) 2/40 since start of Feb on AW.

2)

A few trainers towards the top of the market not firing in the winners with 3 year-olds- David Evans 0/26 this year, Marco Botti 1/38, Richard Hannon 3/54, Shaun Keighley 0/26.

Mushaageb: Roger Varian (T) 118 wins with 3 year-olds on AW, 22% strike-rate, 20% ROI. Those with a recent run on AW, 75 wins with a 25% strike-rate and 37% ROI, including with Andrea Atzeni (J) 24/78, 27% ROI. Has had 18/57 in Feb/March all years with 3 year-olds.

3)

Similar to 2), plus William Haggas’s wins normally follow coming close rather than losing by a wide margin.

She’s Apples: Roger Charlton (T) 38 wins with non-debutant 3 year-olds in last 3 years at a 26% strike-rate, including 18/57 in non-handicaps and a profitable record at Kempton.

 

Friday 22nd March

Here we go again, then. An email was sent yesterday with a bit of a summary and I’ve copied it beneath tonight’s selections in case you missed it. Notes on these selections are beneath that.

Bet 1) 6.00 Newcastle. Elhafei. 1 point win. 5 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook but not BOG until 8am), 4.5 various

Bet 2) 7.00 Newcastle. Confrontational. 1 point win. 5.5 Boyles/SkyBet/BetVictor/Bet365

Bet 3) 7.30 Newcastle. Bengali Boys. 0.5 points each-way. 6 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

It’s been a very stop-start return for the service this year so far with snow, horse flu, my own few days away and now the pre-season break for flat racing. As a result, we’ve only had 82 selections to date, staking 77.5 points and these figures will probably be doubled by the end of April.

We’re still around the break even mark having had 17 race winners and a further 8 place returns, giving a profit on just over 30% of the selections – roughly what is to be expected as we go forward – but we’ve lacked bigger priced winners which would have pushed us on into a profitable start (places from selections at 12/1 twice, 25/1 and 18/1 but no double-figure price winners yet and two out of three from one of the Trixies). It’s been steady, with no major fluctuations, but unspectacular. Hopefully we can add a few points in the coming weeks to build a platform ahead of the turf season and it will only take a good day or two for this to become a pleasing start.

As you will have seen, the selections are based on trainer performances. When the summer season is underway, there will be more variety of angles used and combined with spotting weaknesses of rivals should serve us well. Scope is more limited at this current time of year, for example many UK based jockeys are in various parts of the world during the winter and it is therefore more difficult to ascertain what is a significant booking or simply a question of availability.

The winter schedule is more limited as well with only six courses involved. Again, in a few months, the extra options will expose more information. For example, if a trainer based in Newmarket sends one horse to Scotland rather than run him closer to home then we can examine the thinking behind it, whereas now if the horse goes to Newcastle or Chelmsford it could be because that’s the only suitable race on offer.

There will also be a wider variety of ages and conditions once we reach the new season, further extending options. We’ll start to see this year’s 2 year-olds for the first time in a few weeks and some trainers will look to make instant progress while others will give them as gentle an introduction as possible.

We’ve had good success here in recent years with a couple of the larger yards giving their early developers an outing in the spring and these have tended to be their favoured juveniles, while other trainers will hold back the best of their intake to exploit weaker contests later when others have already played their strongest hands. Others will wait until handicap nurseries begin from July onwards to get onto the winners’ podium.

There will also be an increase in very specific trainer patterns used during the summer season. In the promotion you will have read about John Bridger. The full story will follow when we reach that point, but among the pointers are that his older horses can be outpaced on faster ground but when they’ve been brought to fitness are capable when switched to slower ground.

Other approaches will range from striking straight after a break, making a vast improvement between 1st and 2nd runs, trainers who target certain courses, trainers who target small fields, patterns of jockey bookings, age related races (e.g. when 3 year-olds start taking on older horses), distance changes and much more besides. Couple this with spotting market leaders from yards who do poorly in the relevant conditions and we’ll have an advantage over markets that tend to focus on recent horse form.

As you’ve also probably noticed, the notes to go along with selections have varied considerably. The reason for this is that some days are more straight-forward than others. For every selection, for both the Racing Code and The Syndicate, there are a lot of dead-ends that are gone down that don’t make it to the page before hitting upon suitable choices. Because of this it is not practical to make a note of every statistic, quirk and observation when the vast majority will not be relevant to the final choices.

While I will try to tighten this up, to some extent it will continue to be the case but I will try to reveal as much as I can about the relevant factors. It may be that one day there is a brief description of each selected and then another gives a more comprehensive breakdown of one of the picks and races, with many days somewhere between the two. There will also be more recurring elements that will make this easier and it might be easiest to compile this onto a separate page as we go through the season.

The flat racing schedule is about to move up a couple of gears – in January and February there were 330 and 242 flat races in the UK, whereas in June, July and August last year there were 823, 880 and 905 – and because of this the period from May to October will be busier.

As previously stated, there is a maximum of five selections per day, but once we hit May, the average will increase to what it has been this month and last (although with that maximum it won’t be overly dramatic) to, I suspect, around 4 per betting day. But, in order to keep track of trends, results and the like, the number of betting days will reduce from 6 to 5, thus giving an average of 20 bets a week from May to October.

I think that’s it for now and I hope you’ve enjoyed the service so far. As always if you have any thoughts, comments or questions then please do let me know by either replying at the bottom of the pages on the site or by emailing me at milesbets@gmail.com.

 

Onto tomorrow…

Elhafei: John Gosden (T) has saddled 18 winners from 49 this year, has a record of 30/84 at Newcastle and 9/32 when using Kieran O’Neill (J). Since 2012 Gosden has a record of 14/33 with 4 year-olds or older having their first run of the season after a three month break or longer. In that time his middle-distance runners have had a strike-rate of 27%, particularly impressive considering there have been 255 of them.

Confrontational: Was third for us earlier in the month at Wolverhampton. Jennie Candish (T) has a remarkable and hugely profitable record in the last three years with runners on the AW at this time of year with a recent run behind them if they won or went close last time out (15/36, 141% ROI). She also has a profitable record when only having one runner on an AW card and Confrontational also fits in with a Newcastle specific system that I use to flag horses of note.

Bengali Boys: Richard Fahey (T) is worth keeping an eye on in Claiming or Selling Stakes. In Class 5 or 6 (which most of them are) when he’s had an entrant with a recent run behind him/her, Fahey’s won 9/15 since towards the end of 2017 and has a 34% strike-rate and 75% ROI since the start of 2015.

Saturday 16th March

Two selections for tomorrow are here. There’s then a break for flat racing until Friday. In that gap I will send out an email with a bit of a recap, more detail on the thinking behind the service and a look ahead to the turf season, beginning at the end of the month. Next selections will be here Thursday evening.

Bet 1) 5.40 Wolverhampton*. Aqua Libre. 0.5 points each-way. 8 WillHill/PaddyPower, 7.5 various

Bet 2) 8.15 Wolverhampton. Wise Words. 1 point win. 5 PaddyPower/BetVictor (pus Betfair Sportsbook), 4.5 Boyles/WillHill

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

We’ve had both of these two selections previously. I’ll summarise the positive pointers and some strong negatives for rivals shortly.

 

Friday 15th March

Bet 1) 3.00 Lingfield. Dame Feya Stark. 1 point win. 6 BetVictor/Bet365, (5.5 Betfair Sportsbook but not BOG until 8am), 5 various

Bet 2) 5.40 Lingfield. Cirque Royal. 1.25 points win. 2.75 various

Bet 3) 6.00 Chelmsford. Atyaaf. 1 point win. 3.25 Bet365/BetVictor, 3 various

Bet 4) 7.30 Chelmsford. Pride’s Gold. 1 point win. 4.5 WilllHill/PaddyPower/BetVictor (plus Betfair Sportsbook but not BOG until 8am)

Bet 5) no more bets

Dame Freya Stark is another for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning who gave us Cardsharp earlier in the week. Over the years Johnston has had great success with giving his younger horses a run for experience then bringing them back months later on the AW for their 2nd career run. At single-figure prices with Fanning riding, they’ve won 10 from 24. This is in addition to other positives such as current form and the pair’s positive and profitable records at the track, bot together and independently.

Cirque Royal runs for Godolphin’s Charlie Appleby who has an astonishing record in Novice Stakes on the AW- 49/109, including 12/21 using James Doyle.

Atyaaf has already won for us and is another for the Derek Shaw/ Paddy Mathers/ Chelmsford combination as previously described.

Pride’s Gold runs for Simon Crisford and Adam Kirby. Crisford, who was formerly Godolphin’s racing manager, has a strong and profitable record with AW handicappers generally (41 wins at 22% strike-rate and 26% ROI), particularly middle-distance runners, dropping in class and when having only one runner on a card, all of which occurs today.

 

Thursday 14th March

Bet 1) 5.55 Southwell*. Diamond Pursuit. 0.5 points each-way. 8.5 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook), 7.5 various

Bet 2) no more bets

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

1)

Diamond Pursuit: Ivan Furtado (T) has come back into form this month after a lean spell. He has a positive and profitable record when bringing in apprentices to lighten the load, particularly Gabriel Malune (J). Furtado has been profitable to back in AW sprint handicaps for 4 years in a row, especially at Southwell where his 23% strike-rate would have more than doubled stakes. This increases to 5/13 at Southwell when his runner is down in trip. The pair also team up with Eternal Sun in the 7.00 though there are a number of others with positives involved.

Catapult (favourite): Shaun Keighley (T) 4/78 on AW since last Feb although all 4 wins have been this year. 2/84 all-time record at Southwell.

Dream Ally: John Weymes (T) only 25 runs since, but last win was in April last year.

Marble Bar: Iain Jardine (T) on a losing run on the flat of 52 lasting 4 months.

 

Wednesday 13th March

Bet 1) 3.55 Lingfield. Cardsharp. 1 point win. 4 Coral/Ladbrokes/BetVictor/Bet365

Bet 2) 5.10 Kempton. Stay Forever. 1 point win. 6 various

Bet 3) 5.15 Lingfield*. Subliminal. 0.5 points each-way. 9.5 Bet365, 9 BetVictor, 7 various. (7 to be recorded)

Bet 4) 6.15 Kempton. Moonit Sea. 1 point win. 7.5 SkyBet, 7 Bet365/BetVictor (plus 888Sport/Back Type/ Betway none BOG until morning)

Bet 5) no more bets

Tight for time today and a lot to get through, but I’ll try to add some brief notes in the morning.

Runners today from Mark Johnston (Cardsharp), Simon Dow (Subliminal), Andrew Balding (Stay Forever) and James Tate (Moonlit Sea), all of whom we’ve had selections from already and in each case their chances are boosted by weaknesses in the market leaders. For example, in the 5.10 there are a number of debutants from yards with very poor records with their charges having their first start on the AW. Cardsharp ticks a lot of boxes for a very in form trainer who has a positive record at the track, with Joe Fanning and with handicappers dropping in class. Dow does well with his AW handicappers, at Lingfield, with Tom Marquand and when only having one runner at the track. Tate’s record with 3 year-olds on the AW is excellent, he’s in great form, does very well over midde-distances, class droppers and Oisin Murphy is a very positive booking.

Tuesday 12th March

Spirited Guest was very well backed close to the off and almost was the first double-figure winner of the year- just running out of time and losing by a neck. Lots of options for tomorrow and the chance to add a second Trixie. As before, I’ve reduced the stakes of the singles and if you’d rather just stick with singles then please do so.

Bet 1) 1.45 Southwell. One More Chance. 1 point win. 5.5 Bet365/BetVictor, 5 various

Bet 2) 3.05 Southwell. Ballyquin. 0.75 points win. 2.75 SkyBet/BetVictor, 2.625 Boyles/Bet365

Bet 3) 5.00 Southwell. Amadeus. 1 point win. 3.25 SkyBet/BetVictor, 3 various

Bet 4) 5.45 Wolverhampton. Lion Hearted. 0.75 points win. 2.375 Bet365/SkyBet/BetVictor

Bet 5) 7.45 Wolverhampton. With Caution. 0.75 points win. 2.5 SkyBet, 2.375 various

Plus a Win Trixie, 4 bets each 0.25 points, total 1 point using selections 2, 4 and 5.

SkyBet 2.75, 2.375, 2.5, BetVictor 2.75, 2.375, 2.375, Bet365 2.625, 2.375, 2.375, Boyles 2.625, 2.25, 2.375

Brief notes:

1) Runs for Mick Appleby and Mark Crehan who have given us a couple of place returns so far and this selection fits into a course specific system I’ve been using for sometime.

2) Runs for Andrew Balding and Joshua Bryan and part of the range of positives for them was detailed on 27th Feb with Pot Luck.

3) The first ‘Irish Raider’ of the year. Gavin Cromwell has had 7 wins from 14 in the last year when making the journey across from Navan to run on the AW. Also enters Earl of Bunnacurry in the 2.25.

4) A second of the day for Mick Appleby and Crehan. This is back to the angle used previously- Appleby lightening the load by bringing in talented 7lb claimer Crehan.

5) Runs for James Tate and similar to the last Trixie selection (Solar Park on 1st March)- one runner on the day, track track record and Oisin Murphy (J) adds further positive stats to the equation.

Monday 11th March

Bet 1) 5.00 Kempton. Spirited Guest. 0.375 points each-way. 19 various

Bet 2) 7.30 Kempton. Galitello. 0.5 points each-way. 7 various

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Notes:

1)

Spirited Guest: Another for George Margarson (T) who has a positive record with 3 year-olds on the AW (9/39 in last two years), when he only has one runner on a card (also 9/39), with his runners dropping in trip (7/19), returning from a break, current form, at Kempton (6/30 in last two years) and using Jane Elliot (J, 18 winners together in last two years with a ROI of 49%).

2)

Galitello: Mark Johnston (T) has had a flying start to 2019 with 20 winners from 83 already at an ROI of 49%, including 9/25 with 4 year-olds or older in handicaps and, of those, with Joe Fanning (J) this year he’s 6/12. In the last decade the pair are 42/146 (28.8% strike-rate and 32% ROI) with such handicappers on the AW running a mile and a half or further and profitable in 6 out of 8 years.

This is an ideal each-way race with half the field big outsiders and with Sir Mark Prescott (T of favourite Elysees Palace) not properly firing yet this year and John O’Shea (T of third favourite Knight Crusader) on a losing run of 56 lasting over 6 months, the case for the selection is boosted.

 

Thursday 7th March

Bets for Thursday are here. I then have two days off to recharge the batteries ahead of the final six weeks of the AW season and the beginning of the turf season at the end of the month. Next bets will be for Kempton’s evening meeting on Monday (first race 6pm) and rather than rush them on Sunday night, they’ll be posted at 11.30am on Monday morning.

Bet 1) 5.25 Chelmsford. Amor Fati. 0.75 points win. 5.5 SkyBet/Bet365, 5 various

Bet 2) 6.55 Chelmsford. Pattie. 1 point win. 2.2 various

Bet 3) 7.55 Chelmsford. Laqab. 0.375 points each-way. 10 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Notes:

1)

A few very inexperienced riders in this Apprentice Handicap rules out Mans Not Trot, Plucky Dip. Henry Spiller (T) has a poor record with those returning from a break- note for The Third Man.

Amor Fati: David Evans (T) has been profitable in AW Apprentice Handicaps for 4 years in a row, doing particularly well during the AW season and when the horse has had a recent run. He had a lean spell at the end of 2018 (3/123) but has bounced back with 14 winners so far in 2019 so improvement in his runners is likely.

2)

Should be a two-horse race. Mick Channon (T) of Pattie has been in good form, hitting around 20% in recent months and also has a profitable 20% all-time record at Chelmsford. Callum Shepherd (J) also has a very profitable record with his 23 wins at the track. Meanwhile David Barron (T) of Clon Coulis has only had 2/29 at Chelmsford in the last four years. He’s only had 1/40 with runners returning from a 6 month+ break in the last 22 months.

3)

This is a trainer/jockey/course combo with Derek Shaw (T) and Paddy Mathers (J) doing far better here than anywhere else. We’re 2/2 with this so far and the three components have been profitable together for four years in a row, returning an ROI of 76% when the horse has had a recent run. Elsewhere the Shaw and Mathers combo only has a strike-rate of 7%. Over 30% of the wins together have come at this one track. With Laqab improving for each run since a break, it could be significant that he finally runs at Chelmsford for the first time for Shaw.

Wednesday 6th March

Bet 1) 7.00 Kempton. Jahbath. 1 point win. 2.375 various

Bet 2) 7.30 Kempton. Blame Culture. 0.75 points win. 4 WillHill/BetVictor/Bet365 (plus Betway, not BOG until 10am)

Bet 3) 8.00 Kempton. Secret Potion. 0.5 points each-way. 9 WillHill/BetVictor, 8.5 various

Bet 4) 8.30 Kempton. Miracle Garden. 0.75 points win. 4 PaddyPower, 3.75 BetVictor (plus Betfair Sportsbook, not BOG until 8am), 3.5 various

Bet 5) no more bets

Notes:

1)

Jahbath: William Haggas (T) 14/35 since December. 23% strike-rate at Kempton since start 2016. 34% strike-rate in that time on AW using Jim Crowley (J). Haggas has had 58 winners on the AW since start of 2017 at a strike-rate of 35% when only having 1 runner o the card.

2)

Blame Culture: George Margarson is less prolific when only having 1 runner on an AW card (18% since 2013) but is 42 winners have yielded an ROI of 34%. He has a profitable record in AW handicaps and at Kempton. In good form- 7 wins and 6 x 2nds in last 25 runs.

3)

Secret Potion: Another for Ron Harris and David Probert, a case that’s boosted by weak stats amongst the market leaders.

4)

Miracle Garden: This revolves around a jockey upgrade. Ian Williams (T) most often uses George Downing or Stevie Donoghue but when they are replaced on the next or next but one run, most commonly by Adam Kirby or Richard Kingscote, the strike-rate is significantly boosted.

 

Tuesday 5th March

Bet 1) 6.00 Wolverhampton. Fethiye Boy. 0.375 points each-way. 12 BetVictor/Bet365, 11 various

Bet 2) 6.30 Wolverhampton*. Ripley. 0.5 points each-way. 12 various

Bet 3) 7.00 Wolverhampton. Confrontational. 1 point win. 4 WillHill/BetVictor, 3.75 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Notes:

1)

Fethiye Boy: David Probert (J) is the jockey that Ron Harris (T) seems to turn to with his sprinters when looking to strike. In handicaps over 5 to 7 furlongs when the horse won or lost by 5 lengths or less last time out and wasn’t ridden by Probert, in the last five years the pair are 12/40 and have teamed up with increasing regularity in the last year.

2)

Ripley:Charlie Hills (T) is looking for his 500th winner in the UK tomorrow. His yard’s in very good form- 6 winners from last 11 runs. He has a profitable 19% strike-rate at Wolverhampton in handicaps. He’s teamed up with Richard Kingscote (J) 7 times this year, leading to 3 victories. Kingscote has a similar record here to Hills, riding over 200 winners at the track.

Flood Defence: Iain Jardine (T) losing run of 49 dating bac to November.

Mood For Mischief: Ed Walker (T) 3/71 since November.

Arabic Culture: Grant Tuer (T) 2/42 since September.

Dream Magic: Daniel Mark Loughnane (T) 0/28 with AW handicap class droppers and 3/61 with all runners.

Make Good: David Dennis (T) no wins for 5 months on flat, 3 months jumps.

3)

Confrontational: Another or Jennie Candish (T) and Joe Fanning (J). Jennie Candish (T) has a remarkable and hugely profitable record in the last three years with runners on the AW at this time of year with a recent run behind them if they won or went close last time out. With Joe Fanning (J) in the saddle, the form reads 1121112132301. Considering all runners, she’s a profitable 11/58 at Wolverhampton in this time.Confrontational’s latest run was beyond what I’d count as ‘close’ but it was his first run for Candish and the trainer has a far better record with horses having their second run for the yard.

Shyron: Lee Carter (T) 1/33 in last four months.

Come On Tier: David Simcock (T) 2/53 in AW handicaps.

Global Style: George Downing (J) 4% strike-rate since start 2017.

 

Monday 4th March

Brogan’s Bay was a non-runner on Saturday. No selections for Monday as it’s a day very similar to Tuesday last week with only 6 races at Wolverhampton, some solid looking odds-on favourites and nothing otherwise that has a strong enough case to justify backing.

Saturday 2nd March

A small profit today and the Trixie was slightly up and would have been substantially boosted had Epeius won as well, so I think these are worth chancing from time to time when selections at low odds come up together. Displaying Amber is recorded as a loser but would have given place returns with a number of bookies for finishing 4th.

Bet 1) 2.10 Lingfield. Brogan’s Bay. 0.5 points each-way. 15 various

Bet 2) 5.00 Lingfield. Alabaster. 0.375 points each-way. 12 WillHill/BetVictor/Bet365 (plus Betway, not BOG until 10am)

Bet 3) 8.00 Chelmsford. Prerogative. 0.75 points win. 6 Bet365, 5.5 SkyBet, 5 Boyles/BetVictor

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Notes:

1)

Brogan’s Bay: Simon Dow (T) has a very solid profitable record in AW handicaps and has picked up more wins at Lingfield than on any of the other courses. Tom Marquand (J) has ridden most of is recent AW winners and the pair have a profitable 20% strike-rate together. Dow has also won 3/7 in AW handicappers when the horse’s last run was in a novices contest.

2)

Alabaster: Winners of Apprentice (and Amateur) Handicaps can run again off the same mark without a penalty and because of this Sir Mark Prescott (T) targets these, achieving a very high strike-rate and often following up again soon after. He’s won 11/25 in the last four years. He also has a profitable 28% strike-rate with handicappers dropping in class in the last three years. Enthusiasm, and the stake, is slightly tempered by a general lean spell this year but he has one on his only runner in an Apprentice Handicap.

3)

Prerogative: Tony Carroll (T) and Poppy Bridgewater (J) had 20 wins in 2018 together at a 21% strike-rate, 17 of which were in lower class handicaps. This increases to a very profitable 34% with 13/34 when the horse has run and gone close within the last month.

 

Friday 1st March

Before the last race I was going to say that fortune wasn’t on our side today with Cashel rearing badly as the stalls opened and his race was over before it had begun, Gold Stone missed out on place returns by a nose and Wise Words looked the winner- matched at 1.25 in the run on the exchanges- but was caught close to home, but then True Destiny got the job done.

Tomorrow has thrown up three selections at short prices for the first time this year, so I’ve dropped their single stakes slightly and added a multiple. But, if you’d rather stick with singles then please do. To make this bet select the first horse and then move to the next and select and then the third. You may need to click ‘Add to Betslip’ depending on where you’re placing the bets and make sure to check the stake before placing! If you have any trouble or are not sure what to do please leave a comment below or if you’d rather do it privately you can email me at milesbets@gmail.com If so, it’d be useful to know which bookie you’re trying to use.

Bet 1) 6.00 Newcastle. Jan Hanuman. 0.75 points win. 3 various

Bet 2) 6.30 Newcastle. Epeius. 0.75 points win. 3.25 various

Bet 3) 7.30 Newcastle. Solar Park. 0.75 points win. 2.75 various

Bet 4) 8.00 Newcastle*. Displaying Amber. 0.5 points each-way. 11 various

Bet 5) Trixie (win not each-way) using selections in Bets 1, 2 and 3. This gives 4 bets (3 doubles and a treble) each 0.25 points, total 1 point.

Willill/Boyles 3, 3.25, 2.75, PaddyPower 2.875, 3.25, 2.75, Coral/BetVictor/Ladbrokes 3, 3.25, 2.625

Notes:

1)

Jan Hanuman: Michael Wigham (T) rarely visits Newcastle but has a record of 7/30 here (with 8 finishing 2nd) that have been profitable to back blindly, including 6/14 here in recent months and a recent record of 5/14 everywhere using Franny Norton (J). When only sending 1 runner to Newcastle Wigham’s won 5 of the last 8. Since the start of 2012 when Wigham has only had 1 runner on a card on the flat, he’s had 91 winners with an ROI of 35%.

2)

Epeius: Backing all handicappers running for Ben Haslam (T) at Newcastle would have more than doubled stakes. These are 6/17 this year, including 5/15 ridden by Andrew Mullen (J). In total the pair are 8/23 in handicaps. Haslam has been profitable to follow in all AW sprint handicaps in the last two years. Mullen has a profitable record at the track, especially over shorter distances.

3)

Solar Park: This is another for James Tate (T) who also trains Wise Words who ran for us today. Once more he only has one runner on the card- he has a 20% record when only having one runner on a card, improving to 25% at Newcastle. In good form- last 7 out of 14 have won. Profitable 21% strike-rate with 3 year-olds on AW in last 3 years. Backing all of Callum Rodriguez’s (J) 171 rides at the track would have provided 33 winners and an ROI of 69%

4)

Displaying Amber: Another for Haslam and Mullen which fits the above reasoning. Haslam also has a positive record with sprinters returning from a break at Newcastle.

 

Thursday 28th February

Bet 1) 5.55 Kempton. Cashel. 1 point win. 2.625 various

Bet 2) 6.45 Newcastle. Gold Stone. 0.5 points each-way. 21 WillHill, 19 BetBright/BetVictor. Update: prices dropped quickly- 17 to be recorded

Bet 3) 7.15 Newcastle. Wise Words. 1 point win. 4.33 BetVictor/Bet365, 4 various

Bet 4) 8.30 Kempton. True Destiny. 1 point win. 3.5 various

Bet 5) no more bets

Notes:

1)

Cashel: Another selection with Mick Appleby (T) bringing in an apprentice to lighten the load. Backing all of his runners in handicaps when this has happened has been profitable 6 out of 8 years, increasing to 7 if the horse had won or lost by under 10 lengths last time out. Our previous two selections with this have both been backed each-way and finished 2nd.

2)

Gold Stone: Kevin Ryan (T) and Jamie Spencer (J) have a profitable 23% strike-rate working together on the AW in handicaps. Spencer has a 26% strike-rate at Newcastle. Ryan has a profitable record on the AW with his handicappers dropping in trip.

3)

Wise Words: James Tate (T) has a profitable record with debutants on the AW, a record that improves further when they are ridden by Luke Morris who has ridden most of his victorious debutants. He has a 20% record when only having one runner on a card, improving to 25% at Newcastle.

4)

True Destiny: Roger Charlton (T) has 6/22 recently. He has a profitable 21% strike-rate in Class 6 handicaps and the same in all classes of handicaps with runners who won or went close last time out and with a recent run. Adam McNamara (J)  has recently joined his team and they have a 9/44 record on the AW together and a profitable 12/66 overall, improving to 10/23 with odds of 6/1 or lower.

 

Wednesday 27th February

Bet 1) 3.05 Southwell. Purple Rock. 1 point win. (2.875 Unibet, not BOG until 10am) 2.75 various

Bet 2) 4.10 Southwell. Custard The Dragon. 0.375 points each-way. 12 various

Bet 3) 4.55 Kempton. Grandee Daisy. 0.375 points each-way. 10 various

Bet 4) 5.10 Southwell*. Pot Luck. 0.5 points each-way. 13 PaddyPower, 12 various

Bet 5) 6.00 Kempton. Kyllukey. 1 point win. (5.5 Betfair Sportsbook, not BOG until 8am) 5 various

Notes:

1)

Purple Rock: Gay Kellaway (T) profitable record at Southwell in recent years, in good form- 7/31 since mid-December, including 3/7 at Southwell. In all racing, Kellaway is 11/66 with Daniel Muscutt (J), more than doubling stake.

Harbour Quay: Paul Mulrennan (J) 1 win in last 66 rides on AW.

Seasearch: William Cox (J) 1 win in last 55 rides on AW.

High Command: Kevin Lundie (J) 2 wins in last 60 rides on AW.

2)

Custard The Dragon: Fits into a Southwell specific system that will occasionally be used. John Mackie (T) has his horses running well and a 26% strike-rate at Southwell and similar and profitable record on AW generally at shorter distances. Andrew Mullen (J) over 100 career wins at Southwell, profitable to back blindly.

3)

Gradee Daisy: Jo Hughes (T) 28% strike-rate in Apprentice Handicaps, more than doubling stake, including 8/24 on AW which includes 3 out of last three, all this year, who were all ridden by Georgia Dobie (J) who rides tomorrow.

4)

Pot Luck: Andrew Balding (T) profitable to back in Apprentice Handicaps in 5 of last 6 seasons. 29/104 in all races at Southwell since 2014, including 19/56 with 3 year-olds which includes 9/23 in handicaps. 3/10 at Southwell with Joshua Bryan (J) plus 4 further places and 5/16 at all venues together this year. Bryan 25% strike-rate at Southwell.

5)

Kyllukey: Charlie Wallis (T) 71% ROI in AW season sprints with 4 year-olds or older in handicaps who have run reasonably last time out, which is higher still in the lower classes, and profitable for four years in a row. Stable in good form with 8 wins places since December. Wallis has had 4 wins from 7 with horses transfering from his father-in-law, Milton Bradley, who has only had 3 wins from last 137 runs so improvement in Kyllukey- who switched last month- is likely too.

 

Tuesday 26th February

No joy today. There are only 6 races at Wolverhampton tomorrow and none of them look suitable to be involved in, either due to the absence of any strong angles or a few sturdy cases cancelling each other out, so it’s a day without selections. There are two meetings each day for the rest of the week thereafter, so there should be better opportunities then.

 

Monday 25th February

Bet 1) 5.25 Wolverhampton. Kingi Compton. 1 point win. 3.25 various

Bet 2) 5.55 Wolverhampton. Secret Potion. 0.375 points each-way. 9 BetVictor/Bet365, 8.5 various

Bet 3) 6.55 Wolverhampton. Reflektor. 0.375 points each-way. 7.5 various

Bet 4) 7.55 Wolverhampton. Aqua Libre. 1.25 points win. 5.5 BetVictor/Bet365, 5 various

Bet 5) no more bets

Notes:

1)

Griggy (favourite): John Butler (T) is currently serving a recently imposed suspension and many of his horses have moved to Paul D’Arcy. So far, 4 out of 14 making this switch have won on their first outing for D’Arcy. However, D’Arcy’s record with horses such as Griggy making their first appearance for him having been acquired from elsewhere is far less impressive- just 1/42.

The Defiant: Paul Midgley (T) 2/113 recent record with horses returning from a break of 90 days or more.

Kingi Compton: Worth another chance after not being beaten far in a better race last week. Archie Watson (T) 25/112 at Wolverhampton, including a profitable 9/44 with Ed Greatrex (J). The pair have a profitable 11/53 with 3 yr-old handicappers on the AW and Watson boasts 20/78 with such runners running again within 20 days of previous run (53% ROI).

Awake In Asia: Charlie Wallis 1/55 with 3 year-olds.

Yfenni: Milton Bradley (T) 3/134 since June.

2)

Secret Potion: Ron Harris (T) and David Probert (J) profitable for 5 years in a row with AW sprinters in handicaps that have been beaten 5 lengths or fewer last time out. The pair gave us Eye Of The Water last week.

3)

Reflektor: When Tom Dascombe (T) has only one runner on an AW card he’s been profitable to back for over a decade with over 150 winners, including 69 success over either 5 or 6 furlongs at an ROI of 30% and a strike-rate of 23%. This increases to 70% and 28% when the horse won or lost by under 5 lengths last time out. Overall, Dascombe has a profitable record in AW handicaps, especially sprints and with all runners at Wolverhampton. Reflektor won this race last year.

4)

Baasha (favourite): Ed Dunop (T) 3/86 since October.

Traveller (2nd favourite): Cam Hardie (J) 4% strike-rate in each of last three years. Backed blindly would have lost over 50% of stake at SP, amassing over 700 units.

Aqua Libre: Jennie Candish (T) has a remarkable and hugely profitable record in the last three years with runners on the AW at this time of year with a recent run behind them if they won or went close last time out. With Joe Fanning (J) in the saddle, the form reads 1121112132301. Considering all runners, she’s a profitable 11/58 at Wolverhampton in this time.

 

Saturday 23rd February

As yesterday, if prices have dropped by 10pm then the lower will be recorded. Back to notes and normality from Sunday night onwards. A quiet Saturday with just one bet with a few races having strong cases cancelling each other out and a few prohibitive prices. It may well be worth looking at oddschecker or another odds comparison site to check you’re on the best price.

Bet 1) 5.30 Wolverhampton. Admiral Rooke. 0.375 points each-way. 26 WillHill/BetVictor, 21 various

Bet 2) no more bets

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Friday 22nd February

After a bit of a stop-start month so far- snow, horse flu, raceday- I’ve got a couple more days tight for time and then then should be more normality from the start of next week onwards. Tonight (and probably tomorrow) I’ve posted these a bit early but if the prices have dropped as of 10pm then I’ll record the lower prices. (It may well be doubly worth visiting oddschecker or the like to ensure best prices.)

Bet 1) 1.50 Lingfield. King Compton. 1 point win. 3.25 Bet365, 3 SkyBet/WillHill

Bet 2) 5.45 Chelmsford. Atyaaf. 1 point win. 6 Bet365, 5 various UPDATE: 4.5 various at 10pm which will be used for records

Bet 3) no more bets

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Thursday 21st February

Pleasing to have a good day today and with three meetings again tomorrow it’s another full set of selections…

Bet 1) 2.25 Southwell. Going Native. 0.5 points each-way. 11 WillHill, 10 various

Bet 2) 5.20 Southwell. Geography Teacher. 1 point win. 5.5 BetVictor/Bet365, 5 various

Bet 3) 5.50 Chelmsford. Point Zero. 1 point win. 4.5 PaddyPower, 4 various

Bet 4) 6.10 Wolverhampton. Doctor Sardonicus. 0.75 points win. 5 BetVictor/Bet365, 4.5 SkyBet/WillHill

Bet 5) 7.40 Wolverhampton. Call Me Grumpy. 1 point win. 3 SkyBet/BetVictor, 2.875 Bet365

Notes:

1)

This is a selection for a system specific to Southwell but on this occasion I’m not going to reveal the details so that it doesn’t become well known which would take away the advantage.

Greyzee (favourite): Joey Haynes (J) 2/84 since December, 0/29 riding for Rod Millman (T).

Act of Magic (2nd favourite): Mohamed Moubarak (T) 2/54 career record on AW.

Baron Run: Rona Pindar (J) 2/67 career record including 1/32 for Karl Burke (T).

Bee Machine: Zak Wheatley (J) 0/21 career.

Olly Williams, trainer of Going Native, is on a long losing run but his small string have been running well in defeat recently.

Extra odd stat: 4.10 Southwell. Graham Lee 0/45 riding for Paul Midgley (T) when the trainer has more than 1 runner in a race.

2)

Geography Teacher: Roger Fell (T) has won almost 1 in 5 at Southwell, almost tripling stakes. Three of last four 3 year-old handicappers has won. Profitable all-time record with both sprinters and runners dropping in trip. Jamie Gormley (J) profitable 18% strike-rate at Southwell.

3)

Point Zero: Mick Appleby (T) and apprentice Mark Crehan (J) (who also teamed up today with Glory of Paris) have a record of 8/32 together. This improves to 7/18 when Crehan replaces a pro (with the advantage that he lightens the weight carried). Appleby’s handicappers in top form- 5 wins and 4 further places in last 12 runs. Appleby a profitable 11/49 in apprentices handicaps on the AW in last 3 years (also profitable in these races on turf).

4)

Doctor Sardonicus: Tom Dascombe (T) in good form- 6/15 in last two months. Has a profitable 19% career strike-rate in AW sprint handicaps. These have been profitable at Wolverhampton in 8 of last 10 years. Strike-rate maintained with runners returning from a break, rising to 29% with AW sprinters.

5)

Call Me Grumpy: Roger Varian (T) profitable 23% strike-rate at Wolverhampton, increasing to 32% with horses aged 4 or over. Profitable 25% record with runners down in class. Has saddled 70 winners at 25% when 4 years or older and returning from a break of 2 months or more, including 17/34 in Class 5 or 6.

 

Wednesday 20th February

It would have been nice to get off to a flying start but, after a couple of early winners, it’s been a few winless days. I must say to anybody new to this that that isn’t abnormal or especially unusual- it will happen quite a few times over the coming months. But, there will also be plenty of winning sequences too. Hopefully the next one will be tomorrow, but it could be a week next Tuesday, who knows. The crucial thing I’d ask of you is to not stake too much so that you can take it all in your stride and very much be in the game when a purple patch comes along. (There’s more advice on this in the user guide.)

Bet 1) 4.50 Newcastle. Chosen World. 0.75 points win. 5 various

Bet 2) 5.30 Wolverhampton. Soldier Blue. 1 point win. 4.33 WillHill, 4 various

Bet 3) 7.00 Wolverhampton. Glory of Paris. 0.5 points each-way. (8.5 BetBright) 8 various

Bet 4) 7.30 Wolverhampton. Eye of the Water. 1 point win. (8 WillHill) 7 SkyBet/PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook, not BOG until morning)

Bet 5) 7.45 Chelmsford. Harbour Vision. 0.75 points win. 4.33 various

 

Tuesday 19th February

There won’t be any notes today due to trying to cram two days into one, but with an additional meeting to the previously scheduled two tomorrow, it’s likely to be the first full house tonight, in terms of number of selections.

Bet 1) 6.00 Wolverhampton. Madrinho. 0.375 points each-way (0.75 in total). 13 Coral/SportingBet/Bwin/Bet365 (SBet and BWin recently added BOG on day of races). Some others are offering 4 places @ 1.5 odds if you want the more cautious option but 3 places @ ¼ odds will be recorded.

Bet 2) 6.30 Wolverhampton. Dynamo Walt. 0.5 points each-way. (10 Marathon not BOG, 8.5 SportingBet/BWin) 8 various

Bet 3) 7.00 Wolverhampton. Diamond Reflection. 0.5 points each-way. 9 Coral/BetVictor/SkyBet/BlackType/SportingBet/Bwin

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

 

Monday 18th February

No joy on Saturday but decent performances in defeat and a couple of near misses. It’s the Betting Rant race day tomorrow so selections for Tuesday (first race 5.30) will be here on Tuesday at midday.

Bet 1) 5.00 Newcastle. Belabour. 0.375 points each-way (0.75 points total). 13 Bet365, 12 various. (3 places will be recorded but 4 are available with some bookies.)

Bet 2) 7.00 Newcastle. Equitation. 1 point win. 4 PaddyPower (plus Betfair Sportsbook, now not BOG until 8am), 3.75 various

Bet 3) 8.00 Newcastle. Avenue of Stars. 1 point win. 4.33 various

Bet 4) no more bets

Bet 5) no more bets

Brief Notes:

1)

Camile (favourite): Iain Jardine (T) 1/36 with horses on the flat whose last run was over jumps.

Ripley: Charlie Hills (T) 4/81 with horses up in trip by 2.5 furlongs or more.

Belabour: Mark Brisbourne (T) returned to form this year- 3 wins and 2 places from last 11 runs (wins at 40/1, 8/1 and 11/2), already equalling last year’s total- this suggests an upturn in other runners’ performances is possible. Rarely travels to Newcastle- won 1 from 2 here. Eoin Walsh 3 wins in last 12 rides for the yard (2 x 33/1 and 8/1, one of the 33/1 winners was also dropping in class as is Belabour.)

3)

Avenue of Stars: Karen McLintock (T) profitable 18% strike-rate in handicaps on both (flat) turf and AW since start of 2016, including 9/42 at Newcastle this year and last and 3/7 using Jason Hart (J). In good form- 3 wins and 4 further places in last 11 runs. Strike-rate rises to 20% for those who last ran in the last month (44% ROI) and further to 23% (ROI 60%) if last time out won or lost by under 4 lengths.

Saturday 16th February

We’ve had two narrow winners so far, but two slipped away today with both matched heavily odds-on without seeing it through. Iconic Girl lost by 2 necks and Ginger Jam didn’t manage to reach the leaders, but I don’t think jockey Faye McManoman will enjoy watching it back.

Bet 1) 2.40 Lingfield. Gulliver. 1 point win. 8 WillHill, 7.5 various

Bet 2) 3.15 Lingfield. Spring Romance. 1 point win. 2.75 Bet365, 2.625 various

Bet 3) 4.25 Lingfied. Vin D’honneur. 1 point win. 5 various

Bet 4) 5.45 Kempton. Nylon Speed. 1 point win. 7 Bet365, 6.5 various

Bet 5) No more bets

Notes:

1)

Gulliver: When David O’Meara (T) has multiple runners in the same race, number one stable jockey Danny Tudhope (J) has been profitable to back blindly, winning more than twice as often as O’Meara’s other representatives (the backing of which would have resulted in a very hefty loss).

2)

Spring Romance: Dean Ivory (T) has a mixed record with his horses returning from a break but the jockey bookings are a strong pointer towards expectations. In the last 3 years on the AW he’s had a 4% strike-rate with returners ridden by apprentices and a highly profitable 19% when ridden by pros. Spring Romance runs for the first time since July but the booking of Adam Kirby (J) suggests he’s ready.

3)

Vin D’honneur: Another for Stuart Williams (T). Still in very good form- 9 wins and 9 placed 2nd so far this year from 53 runs. Profitable record with middle-distance handicappers in 5 of last 6 years. Nine wins from 43 in AW handicaps in last three years using Sean Levey (J) with an ROI of 68%.

4)

Nylon Speed: Alan King also has a successful record with multiple runners in the same race- 5 wins in 8 races on AW in middle/staying distances (as he’s primarily a jumps trainer, his success on the flat has been over longer distances). Martin Harley (J) normally gets the first choice but as he’s in Hong Kong at the moment, David Probert and Tom Marquand deputise. He also runs two in the 7.45. In very good form- 8 wins from last 26. Profitable record over these distances at Kempton in last four years with a 21% strike-rate.

More notes to follow shortly

 

Friday 15th February

I’ll add notes whenever possible, but tonight the clock has beaten me to it. It’s another day with a lot of small fields and odds-on favourites, so just two cautious bets.

Bet 1) 2.35 Lingfield. Iconic Girl. 0.75 points win. 5.5 PaddyPower, 5 various

Bet 2) 7.15 Newcastle. Ginger Jam. 0.75 points win. 3.75 various

Bet 3) No more bets

Bet 4) No more bets

Bet 5) No more bets

 

Thursday 14th February

We may have had a six day gap, but I won’t recommend bets for the sake of it and there’s only one smallish bet for tomorrow that makes an appeal. The favourite is respected, hence the slightly moderate stake, and with only 7 runners giving only 2 places, a win only bet is advised. With two meetings on each of Friday and Saturday there should be a bit more action to finish the week.

Bet 1) 7.30 Chelmsford. Juanito Chico. 0.75 points win. 8 various

Bet 2) No more bets

Bet 3) No more bets

Bet 4) No more bets

Bet 5) No more bets

Notes:

1)

Juanito Chico: Stuart Williams (T) in very good form- 9 wins and 8 placed 2nd so far this year from 50 runs. Profitable record with middle-distance handicappers in 5 of last 6 years. Profitable record in handicaps at Chelmsford overall and 4 wins from last 11 runs here. Ten wins from 50 in all racing using PJ McDonald (J). Backing all 75 of McDonald’s rides at Chelmsford in last two years would have delivered 19 wins and more than doubled stake.

Executive Force: Michael Wigham (T) only 4 wins from 83 at course, but yard in very good form and Franny Norton (J) rides most of their winners.

God Willing: Declan Carroll (T) hasn’t had a middle distance winner during AW seasons since 2007. Zak Wheatley (J) yet to ride a winner after 20 rides.

Gas Monkey: Julia Fielden (T) 4/79 since September. Just 2/109 at course. Shelley Birkett (J) 2/73 at course.

Bollihope: Shaun Keightley (T) 3/88 in UK in last year.

Baasa: Ed Dunlop (T) 3/83 on AW since September.

The Warrior: Lee Carter (T) 5/96 in last year.

 

Wednesday 13th February

Welcome back after that unexpected break. With declarations only being released early in the afternoon today, it’s left time a bit shorter than usual so I’m not going to add reasoning tonight. A gentle return with just two selections. I’d also like to take this opportunity to draw your attention to a very personal appeal by Kieran in the comments section beneath, which can be found by scrolling down to the bottom of this page.

6.45 Kempton. My Dear Friend. 0.75 points win. 5.5 various

7.15 Kempton. Me Too Nagasaki. 1 point win. 4.5 WillHill/Bet365 (plus 888Sport but not BOG until morning), 4 various

 

 

 

 

Racing in Britain has been SUSPENDED until at least Wednesday, February 13 in a bid to contain an equine flu outbreak. The next significant update from the BHA is likely to be on Monday. Let’s hope for better news then, but as it stands the next selections will be posted here on Tuesday night.

UPDATE Monday night: Good news- racing resumes on Wednesday. Therefore, selections will be posted here on Tuesday night.

 

Selections for Thursday 7th February

Bet 1) 5.50 Chelmsford*. Vin Dhonneur. 0.5 points each-way. 9 various

Bet 2) 8.25 Chelmsford. Rippling Waters. 1 point win. 5.5 various

Bet 3) No more bets

Bet 4) No more bets

Bet 5) No more bets

Notes:

1) Vin Dhonneur: Stuart Williams (T) in good form- 6 wins from last 18 runs. In the last decade his handicappers running on the AW within 2 months of last run have been profitable to back blindly, including middle-distance runners and all runners at Chelmsford. Callum Rodriguez is having a great AW with 22 winners at a 23% strike-rate- the highest strike-rate of all jockeys with more than 50 rides. He’s won 3 of his last 9 rides at the course. Since March 2017, his 48 AW wins have come at a strike-rate above 20% and an 84% ROI if backed blindly. At odds of 8/1 (SP) or lower, his strike-rate has been 31% and still has an ROI of 79%.

Greyzee (fave): Rod Millman ) (T) 0/51 on AW since June.

2) Rippling Waters: Jamie Osborne has a profitable record at Chelmsford, including a 57% ROI in the last 18 months with almost two-thirds of winners ridden by Dougie Costello (J) who rides tomorrow. The pair have a 27% strike-rate here in Class 6 races, more than doubling stake in returns. Osborne in good form- 5 wins from last 20 runners in handicaps. Osborne has an ROI of 88% to BSP at distance 6 to 8 furlongs at Chelmsford. Osborne has consistently returned a strike-rate above 20% on the AW with last time out winners. Since switching codes, and taking 20 attempts to record his first win at the track in 2016, Costello has had 20 winners at Chelmsford, mainly for Osborne, more than doubling stake. Costello’s record in Class 6 at Chelmsford is a 21% strike-rate giving an 145% ROI.

Blessed to Empress (fave): Amy Murphy (T) 1/68 from start October.

Agent of Fortune (2nd fave): Christine Dunnett (T) 2/101 on AW since October 2016.

Wednesday 6th February

A lot more to tackle with two meetings tomorrow, so I’ve only listed positives.

Bet 1) 3.25 Kempton. Technological. 1 point win. 5 various

Bet 2) 4.30 Kempton. Rare. 1 point win. (7.5 Bet365) 6 SkyBet/BetVictor (plus non-BOGs Unibet/10Bet/SportPesa/RedZone/SportNation)

Bet 3) 6.45 Wolverhampton. Sha La La La Lee. 1.25 points win. 3.5 WillHill/SkyBet/PaddyPower/Bet365

Bet 4) 7.45 Wolverhampton. Sheberghan. 1 point win. 2.75 Bet365 (plus Marathon not BOG), 2.625 SkBet/WillHill

Bet 5) No more bets

Notes:

1) Technological: George Margarson (T) profitable record in AW handicaps and at Kempton. In form- 60% finishing 1st or 2nd in last 3 months. 15/55 with last time out 2nds in handicaps. With Oisin Murphy (J) 2/5 (both wins on Technological). Murphy 54 wins with a 45% strike-rate on favourites on AW since beginning of 2018.

2) Rare: Archie Watson profitable 22% strike-rate at track, rising to 26% with Murphy and 44% with middle-distance and stayers at Kempton.

3) Sha La La La Lee: Tom Dascombe (T) in top form- won 6/13 in last 7 weeks. Long-term profitable record at track. Profitable record in sprint handicaps on AW, including 39 wins @ 23% strike-rate with Richard Kingscote (J). Kingscote ridden 200+ wins at track, profitable if backed blindly, over half of which have been for Dascombe with a 15% ROI to Betfair SP. Dascombe has a profitable 23% strike-rate with horses 4 or older returning from a break of 4 months or more on the AW. Dascombe saddles two here (also Mickey) and when entering multiple horses on AW, Kingscote has a 30% strike-rate, more than doubling stake overall.

4) Sheberghan: Another for Watson fitting the middle-distance or stayers category. 23% strike-rate at track for all runners and a profitable record with Ed Greatrex (J). Greatrex 20% strike-rate at track since summer 2017, profitable to back blindly, rising to 24% when further than a mile and a 75% ROI.

 

Tuesday 5th February

Bet 1) 4.10 Newcastle. Awesome Gal. 0.75 points win. 7.5 BetVictor/Bet365, 7 various

Bet 2) 4.45 Newcastle. Sajanji. 1 point win. 2.625 WilllHill, 2.5 various

Bet 3) 7.15 Newcastle. First Breath. 1 point win. 7 PaddyPower/Bet365/BetVictor

Bet 4) No more bets

Bet 5) No more bets

Notes:

1) Awesome Gal: Sir Mark Prescott (T) 17(wins)/70(runs) at the course, improving to 16/45 in handicaps when Luke Morris rides (as he does tomorrow), including 4/11 when beaten over 10 lengths last time out. He only sends one to Newcastle tomorrow and is 18/63 with 1 runner on the day partnered by Morris.

Flood Defence: Iain Jardine (T) on a losing run of 42 lasting 87 days. Theodore Ladd (J) only had 3 rides at track previously.

Tetradrahim: Stevie Donoghue (J) 2/36 at track. Rebecca Menzies (T) 3/39 with last time out winners.

Hugoigo: Jim Goldie (T) 6/98 since October.

Just Heather: John Wainwright (T) losing run 134 lasting 16 months.

2) Three main contenders.

Sajanji: Simon Crisford (T) 7/13 at course since September, 43/208 in Novice Stakes, 48/225 with 1 runner at track on the day.

Merchant of Venice: James Fanshawe (T) 0/19 at course in last year, 4/66 in AW Novice Stakes.

Tum Tum: Michael Herrington (T) 0/35 at course in last year, yet to have a winner in Novice Stakes.

3) First Breath: Ben Haslem (T) 6/16 all runners this year, inc 5/12 at course, 6/13 with Andrew Mullen (J). 16/80 in handicaps at course since beginning 2017.

Star Cracker: Jim Goldie (T) 6/98 since October.

Tellovoi: Richard Guest (T) losing run 26 last 59 days. Phillip Prince (J) losing run 23, lasting 66 days.

Malaysian Boleh: Grace McEntee (J) first ride at track, career record 1/69. Phil McEntee (T) losing run 41 runs, 8/158 since August.

Sohudo: Andrew Breslin (J) 0/17 at course, 5/69 since September.

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