How To Profit From Tonight’s General Election

| June 8, 2017 | Reply

Love ‘em or loath ‘em, recent votes around the world have provided fantastic opportunities to make money from the betting markets.

There was ‘Leave’ in the EU Referendum which was available to back at around 10/1 on the night of the vote…

There was Donald Trump in the US Election who was available to back at around 10/1 on the night of the vote…

And there was Jeremy Corbyn in the first Labour leadership election and Emmanuel Macron in the French Election, who both appeared from nowhere (and at pretty lofty odds) to win their respective votes.

Momentum is a powerful thing

Those are the exact words I said to Daily Reckoning Editor Ben Traynor back when the snap election was announced and he was completely writing off the chances of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour.

Sure, the Conservatives had a huge lead in the polls at that stage but my point was two-fold…

First, things can change very quickly in politics and that’s especially the case when an election is called and people are actually forced to look properly at the policies of the two candidates…

And second, in Jeremy Corbyn Labour had a leader who had already mastered the art of momentum (not the campaign group!) in romping to victory in not one but two Labour leadership contests where he was able to get people to vote that wouldn’t normally do so.

Now before I go any further I should point out that I’m not saying that Labour will win and I’m not offering any personal views on who I think should win, what I’m saying is back when that election was called Labour’s chances were massively underestimated and that was borne out in the betting odds with Corbyn 16/1 to be the next Prime Minister – he’s now just 4/1.

Has the value disappeared?

At this moment in time I would say that the answer to that question is yes and I wouldn’t advise betting on the contest at the moment, HOWEVER…

That is absolutely not to say that there won’t be any value tonight, in fact far from it – I made my money from Trump and Brexit AFTER voting had stopped.

In both cases final polls were close, possibly with a slight lean towards ‘Remain’ and Hilary Clinton and that reinforced the betting view which resulted in the odds – which had been generally getting tighter – being pushed right out again, hence why I got much better odds on ‘Leave’ and Trump after voting had finished.

However it wasn’t even at that stage when I placed my bets – I placed my bets after the first couple of results had been announced and I did so because they painted a far better picture than any poll…

In the Brexit vote the first place to announce the result was, I believe, Newcastle and although ‘Remain’ won, it was actually much tighter there than projected…

Despite that, bizarrely, ‘Remain’ if anything shortened in price.

That was a common theme throughout the night and I was still placing bets at around 2am when ‘Remain’ was STILL favourite despite the results very clearly showing ‘Leave’ doing much better than the polls predicted.

In short, the betting markets were extremely slow to react and, as a result, hay was made.

Top tips for tonight

To finish, here are a few top tips for making money tonight, regardless of who wins.

  1. Do NOT allow your own personal political beliefs to affect how you bet

I hate the fact that a massive gobshite with archaic beliefs is in charge of the most powerful country in the world but it didn’t stop me backing him and I’d have lost a lot of money if I’d opposed him in line with who I wanted to win.

  1. Stay up late, watch the results come in and keep the Betfair market to hand.

If it’s anything like the EU Referendum and the US Election then Betfair will be very slow to react to any subtle hints, so keep an eye specifically on the margins of victory in each seat – sure, Labour will more than likely win in Newcastle, the Tories will more than likely win in Cornwall but is one party doing better than you would expect them to do in terms of number of votes?

It’s small things like that which don’t shift the odds but, if replicated elsewhere (as they usually are) do give you a clue as to which way the key swing seats are headed.

  1. A good night for Labour would make it easier for us to profit as they will start off as the underdogs (and may well drift out further just before the results start coming in) but don’t go to bed if it looks like the Tories are doing better than expected.

While such a scenario might make the main markets (next PM, most seats etc) unplayable you could still make money backing the number of seats – if it looks like they’re doing better than expected then due to the relative closeness of recent polls there’s likely to be some value in the higher seat bands (or indeed by ‘buying’ the number of seats in a spread bet).

  1. Finally, if there is one poll worth paying attention to it’s the exit poll and this cracking bit of advice comes from Betting Rant reader Eugene:

“Get an analogue radio, tune in to the BBC exit poll (Radio 4 or 5) at ten on Thursday and hammer their forecast on smarkets.  

“In 2015 they got it spot on but reduced the forecast for the Tory seats because of the polls which had Labour doing much better. Believe me the BBC will not make the same mistake again. Analogue radio? Gives you 3 or 4 vital seconds.”

So there you have it…

Play your cards right and we can ALL be winners tonight, whoever ends up in Number 10.


Category: Betting Advice

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