Premier League Relegation: 2019/20

| May 14, 2019 | Reply

With the end of this season’s Premier League only a few days ago and before my editor’s red eyes have dried and he tries to convince us that next time around will be Liverpool’s year and they’ll win everything from the Champion’s League to Strictly Come Dancing, I’m going to take a look at the teams that have been relegated in the last decade and see how strong the pointers are towards what may happen next season.

In this time, there have been 30 times a team has been demoted. Are there simple factors that they have in common?

To begin with, let’s consider sides that were promoted from the Championship the previous season. Of those 30, 11 have come straight back down (36.67%).

Of the 19 who survived in their first season, Wolves will have their 2nd season in 2019/20, but only four of the other 18 failed to make the cut the following year (22.22%). With both Brighton and Newcastle set for a third season after their elevations, that leaves 12 teams promoted in the last ten years who have finished a third season in the Premier League and only two of those were relegated during it (16.67%).

This certainly seems to suggest, perhaps unsurprisingly, that the longer a team remains in the top flight, the less likely they are to finish in the bottom three.

Also, it seems that the better the performance in the Championship the previous season, the higher the chance of survival the following season. Only two Championship champions have gone straight back down – Reading and Cardiff who came up in 2011/12 and 2012/13 respectively – and only two others, QPR (promoted in 2010/11) and Wolves (2008/2009) failed to make it past a third season. Additionally, all of the most recent five champions have maintained their status.

Teams finishing 2nd in the Championship and thus gaining automatic promotion are only one step behind, with three out of 10 being relegated in their first season (back) in the Premier League, two failing at the second attempt and one at the third. Only Southampton, Watford and Brighton are still playing at the top level.

The likelihood of a swift return to the second tier increases for teams ascending via the play-offs, with six of the last 10 doing an instant U-turn and Huddersfield only having an additional year. Four of the most recent five have headed back whence they came at the first time of asking. With Huddersfield the exception, it leaves Crystal Palace (promoted in 2012/13) as the last surviving representative of play-off success.

Whereas the last five teams to win the Championship are still all in the Premier League, seven of the last 10 to either finish 2nd or gain promotion through the play-offs were relegated the next season.

Only once has a team accrued 91 points or more in achieving promotion then been relegated straight-away (Burnley with 93 points in 2013/14) while 10 of the 23 teams with fewer points have failed to survive.

These trends suggest that Norwich (2018/19 Championship champions with 94 points) will survive next season, but Sheffield United (2nd with 89 points) and whoever prevails from the play-offs are going to both be strongrelegation candidates. (Incidentally, it seems to make little difference whether the play-off winners finished 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th.)

Removing the promoted clubs from considerations, gives us 19 teams who have been relegated having previously been in the Premier League the season before. Again somewhat predictably, a low finishing position suggest tough times ahead – six of the last eight teams to finish 17th, thus missing relegation by one place, have not preserved their status in the following season. Bad news then for Brighton.

Eight of the other 13 relegated teams had previously finished 14th, 15th or 16th.

In the last 10 years, 47 points or more has been achieved 102 times by teams and only once have any of those been relegated the following season (Birmingham 50 points in 2009/10).

However, if failing to reach this level then the probability of being in the bottom three increases the further the gap to this mark. On 45 occasions a team has picked up 40 to 46 points, with 10 of those being relegated the next season (22.22%), while on the 18 occasions that a team that has survived with just 35 to 39 points, eight of those have not been so lucky the following time (44.44%).

This tendency is steady through the figures with four relegations from 20 with teams managing 44 to 46 points (20%) through to five out of eight (62.5%) following a season with 35 to 37 points.

Conclusion

No great surprises here – but then again if the findings did point towards Arsenal, Chelsea and Everton to be next season’s trio then they’d have to be seriously questioned – and the trends point towards next year’srelegation treble being (drum roll?):

Brighton, the play-off winners, Sheffield United

Strong Possibles:

Southampton, Burnley

Outsiders:

Norwich, Newcastle, Bournemouth

The play-off final is on Monday 27th May, so I’ll be looking at the odds that evening and seeing if these findings can point in the direction of any value in either backing or laying.

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Category: Betting Tips

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