One More Point About The EU Referendum

| July 5, 2016 | Reply

And don’t worry, it’s a betting one!

So, I’ve finally finished reading and responding to your emails about the EU Referendum and my accompanying Betting Rant articles a couple of weeks ago (don’t hate me, the Euros/Wimbledon have been on!) and one thing really stood out for me from a betting perspective…

A number of people, be it from misreading (lay betting can be confusing so that’s fair enough) or not actually bothering to read and instead jumping to conclusions, emailed me about a ‘costly error of judgement’ or ‘putting heart above head’ when of course that couldn’t have been any further from the truth.

Read the Thursday afternoon email entitled ‘Calm down, calm down’ again and you’ll see that I not only suggested a bet on ‘leave’ as it looked like it could be excellent betting value, I even shared a screenshot showing that I had personally staked £100 on a ‘remain’ LAY bet (that being a bet on remain to NOT win).

These people were right about one thing

Whether the people that wrote in misread my article or didn’t read it at all, they were absolutely right about one thing…

You should NEVER let your heart rule your head when it comes to betting.

I didn’t do that here and I haven’t done it since my first year of university when I drunkenly put my largest ever stake on my football team to win at Old Trafford (they barely registered a shot in losing 2-0).

Regardless of what the bet you’re placing is, it should always be driven, first and foremost, by the odds rather than your personal opinion on the likely outcome…

For example, you might be strongly of the opinion that Portugal are going to beat Wales in the semi-final tomorrow (I’m not, before any angry Welsh people write in) but if Wales were available at 50/1 for the win you’d be a fool not to back them because it would be the obvious ‘value’ call.

To take a similar example, I expected England to beat Iceland but the odds on an England win looked far too short to me…

In this case I didn’t back Iceland but, crucially, I also didn’t back England.

And of course it’s even worse if the bet you’re thinking of placing isn’t just your opinion of the likely outcome but also your opinion of the likely outcome combined with what you really want to happen, such as backing your football team, as the fact you want it to happens means you are likely to overestimate the chance of it actually happening.

Because of this, while I don’t personally make it a rule to never back my team, I will only do so when I feel that the value on offer is exceptional and not when I think the bookies are only a little bit out with their odds.

A win win

While I obviously wasn’t personally thrilled with the outcome of the Referendum, I did make 100 quid from it and I did so by sticking to the value principle and not putting heart over head.

If you do that yourself then not only will you make money in the long run, you’ll also find that on some occasions, while your team/player/party etc might not have won, you will have and that’ll go some way to softening the blow.


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Category: Betting Guides

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