What Makes A Good Betting Service?

| November 23, 2017 | Reply

Today I’m handing over to our brand new Head Reviewer, Chris Sowerby.

If you ever have any feedback or questions for
Chris or I, you can reach us at bettingrant@agorapub.co.uk.

Matt Houghton


Hello and welcome to my first article as the new Head Reviewer here at the Betting Rant.

My aim is to bring you a broad range of different tipping services and, while there will be more racing and football simply due to the number of tipsters in those areas, I will also be looking to uncover some hidden nuggets in other sporting arenas…

With that in mind I will be kicking off this week with The Cricket Man – very topical with the start of the Ashes series coming up!

I will let you know what other tipsters are on the radar for the first round of reviews over the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, this article takes us back to some of the basics of measuring a tipster’s performance.

Now, while I know we have plenty of hardened punters among our ranks, we are also mindful that we introduce many members to their first taste of making money from the bookies…

So, while this article should prove very useful to any newcomers, there is absolutely no harm in all of us revisiting the basics from time to time either.

I hope you all enjoy the read.

Chris

Setting out the basics

The first time you visit a tipster review site it can all seem just a little bit daunting – betting bank, ROI, ROC, profit and loss, strike rate, average odds, the list is endless…

But, fear not, by the end of this article you will have an idea of what each of the main measures is and, more importantly, how it should be used to help your decision making.

Betting Bank

All tipsters should state the size of the betting bank you will need to ensure that you can cover any losing runs.

The bank is usually stated in points as everyone’s stake size will vary…

To convert pounds into points simply divide the value of your bank by the total points recommended. For example, if your betting bank is £500 and the recommended betting bank is 100 points, then your stake per point is £5 (£500/100 points).

The size of the bank is particularly important at the start of your journey with a tipster as you may be unfortunate enough to join during a losing run.

Remember, this wouldn’t necessarily mean it is a bad service – you need to look at the long-term performance and the types of bets that are being tipped.

A service which operates at longer odds will have longer losing runs than one which regularly bets at odds-on (see average odds section below).

Profit (and Loss)

The profit performance of a tipster is usually stated as either cumulative profit over a certain period or average monthly profit.

The profit element of a successful bet is the total return minus the original stake. The loss from a loser is the total of the stake.

It cannot be stressed enough that what we should be looking for is long-term profitability – there are very few services (I would even go as far as to say I don’t know any) that don’t suffer dips in their results at some time or another.

The key element of this measure – apart from the fact that we only want to be involved with long-term profitable services! – is the level of peaks and troughs…

A headline average profit of 49 points per month may sound great, but always look behind the number for the trend. It may be that there are steady profits every month, but it may also be that there have been 11 losing months and a bumper one-off win in the twelfth!

Strike Rate

The strike rate is the ratio of wins to total selections, usually expressed as a percentage…

For example, Tipster A gives 85 tips in the month, of which 15 win. Their strike rate would be 17.65% (15/85).

As with all of the measures we discuss, this should not be viewed in isolation…

The reason for this is twofold. Firstly, a high strike rate but low average odds will not necessarily perform as well as a lower strike rate with higher average odds.

Secondly, you should always consider the total number of tips given by a tipster. Allow me to clarify why…

A strike rate of 33% may sound great with one out of every three selections winning but what if that figure was based on 1,000 tips in the month? Could your betting bank cope? And what about the ROI (see below)? Could your money be better utilised elsewhere?

Average Odds

This figure helps us to get a feel for the level of risk taken by a tipster.

The calculation itself is very simple: add up all of the odds of the selections for a given period and divide by the total number of selections.

Average odds around 2.0 could equate to a very conservative approach and little real value in each individual selection, the gain coming from a potentially high strike rate…

On the other hand, average odds around 7.0 could suggest a horse racing tipster looking for value selections, but this will lead to longer losing runs.

Either way, this figure needs to be considered in conjunction with other measures and with regard to the sport being covered.

ROI (Return on Investment)

The ROI is shown as a percentage and measures the return made relative to the capital risked. Let’s look at an example of ROI from a punting perspective…

We’ll go back to Tipster A and his 85 tips for the month. If these are at a flat £10 per point, then we would have to invest (stake) £850 in the month.

Now, let’s say his 15 winners generate £240 profit (remember this is the return net of the original stake). In this instance our ROI for the month is 28.23% (240 divided by 850, multiplied by 100).

An important point to remember here is that you will not have used £850 of your betting bank as you would have continually reinvested the winnings and the returned stakes.

What constitutes a good ROI from sports betting is a moot point. Partly it is personal preference and partly it is dependent on what that same money could deliver invested elsewhere.

ROC (Return on Capital)

Often referred to as capital growth, we take our betting bank as our starting point and then calculate the percentage growth in that figure over a period of time…

So, if we use a £1,000 starting bank and assume that in our first year with a tipster they generated £300 profit, then our ROC would be 30% (300 divided by 1000, multiplied by 100).

This measure is useful to compare the result with what you might have achieved by putting the money in the bank – at 0.1% interest per annum, that’s a gain of just £1!!

I would say at this point that returns from betting are not guaranteed and we should always be aware of the need to bet responsibly; you should only risk what you can afford to lose. However, that said, a professional and strategic approach to betting offers the possibility to generate significantly better returns than the bank.

What kind of bettor are you?

Although I’m beginning to sound like the proverbial stuck record, none of the above measures in isolation will ever tell us the whole story.

What you look for in a tipster will, to a large extent, depend on your own approach to betting – do you want slow, steady growth, with short losing runs, or do you want faster growth with more ups and downs and the outside chance of a big windfall? The size of your betting bank will also dictate suitable tipsters for you.

Understanding your own style and finances will help you identify the trends you need to look for in a tipster…

What should be paramount to everyone is the long-term results – be patient, stick to the recommended staking plan and reap the rewards from long-term profitable tipsters.

I hope this helps, but if anyone has any questions or wants any clarification then please contact me via bettingrant@agorapub.co.uk.

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Category: Reviews

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