The Syndicate

Flat Selections (2018 Part Two)

| August 24, 2018 | 49 Replies

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Category: SYD Summer Selections

Comments (49)

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  1. John Mccrory says:

    Miles, received this as a notification but no horses?

  2. John Mccrory says:

    Ignore above just seen your note in the Part 1 section.

    rgds

    Tony

  3. David Helliwell says:

    Hi Cannot see Part 1 in Flat selections for Saturday. Is this correct?
    Regards

  4. John Criddle says:

    g/day miles, looking for part one?can you assist. regards john

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Morning John, it’s just a new page because the previous one reached capacity- just 2 selections for today and all for the rest of the season will be here.

  5. John Criddle says:

    miles, thankyou for that, regards john

  6. John Criddle says:

    good day at the races miles, keep those winners coming you beauty. regards john

  7. John Criddle says:

    g/day, matt/ miles, matt profitable selections for the football yesterday evening keep them coming, also are your tip and mix on this site or is it just an e-mail? miles couple of excellent selections at the races yesterday, keep those bookies trembling. regards john

  8. John Seaman says:

    Miles, you don’t say which horse for Friday’s 4 o’clock at Wolverhampton, but presumably it’s Fairway To Heaven which you talk about in the reasoning. Also most bookies are offering 13/2 on this horse (at the time of writing).

    Regards,
    Johb

  9. Kieran Hagan says:

    Right now, Skybet are offering 8/11 on Kodicat to place at 4 places. That seems like a cracking bet given your analysis?

  10. Anthony Joyce says:

    Excellent results today again Miles and even better if not restricted by bet 365. Even so brilliant day. Thanks again Anthony Joyce

  11. John Mccrory says:

    Hey Miles, have a great break

  12. Anthony Joyce says:

    I personally think you are being a bit hard on your figures marking them as losers. I know I got paid out on all the places but anyone who uses your service will know you don’t need to try to make your figures look good. We were certainly not far away from some good profits and the service is showing a healthy profit up to now. Kind regards.
    Anthony Joyce

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      That’s nice of you to say that, Anthony, thank-you. I suppose my thinking is that, with my punter’s hat on, it’s a bug bear when services’ figures can’t be replicated and unfortunately the bookies who tend to be the most generous with extra places also tend to be the quickest to restrict.

  13. Robert Bille says:

    Only just come across this but thought I’d bring it to everyone’s attention… On a lot of races, Bet365 offer an “each way extra” found in the tab next to “fixed odds”; it doesn’t apply to all races so you’ll need to look out for it. I use it when Miles tips up a horse at say 25-1, in some cases you can get up to 10 places in big field events. Obviously the odds are reduced according to whether you’re looking for 6 places where the selection’s odds might be18-1 or 8 places where you might be offered 14-1. Just another betting angle!!

  14. Robert Bille says:

    Case in point, today’s 5.30 Kempton… Miles’ tip Sweet and Dandy was 20-1 with Bet365 for 3 places; I took 16-1 for 5 places… I find it just gives you a little more chance of a return!

  15. John Criddle says:

    miles, g/day, is the forcast/tricast any order or 1/2 3rd?
    regards john

  16. Miles Tredwell says:

    Hi John,
    Just resent you a previous email that goes into more detail.

    Forecast= 1st and 2nd
    Tricast= 1st, 2nd and 3rd

    Three horses and we want all combinations covered for both Forecast and Tricast.

  17. John Criddle says:

    miles, thank you for that, but the old brain cells are not what they use to be, you must have an excellent memory as it must be 6 months or more since you sent that e-mail. again thanks. regards john

  18. John Mccrory says:

    Bad day at the races….:-(

  19. Steve Smith says:

    Hi Miles
    I find it frustrating backing horses to win at odds of 5, 6 or 7 that place – eg Secret Potion. Why not back more e/w ? Far more winners this way.

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi Steve,
      This is by far the subject I get emailed most about with about half saying more should be each-way and half saying more should be win only.

      When making selections I want to be confident that if repeatedly making that bet the return would give at least 20% profit and that applies to both the win side and the place side.

      With Secret Potion, win odds of 7.5 mean it would need to have a 14% chance of winning to be slightly profitable and 16% or more to make a 20% profit. I was happy that was the case.

      The place side odds were 2.625 meaning it would need to place (3 places from 15 runners) 39% of the time to just be profitable and 46% to make a 20% profit. I don’t think that is as attractive a deal and therefore the bet was win only.

      I don’t have a set rule for when to do one and when the other, such as an odds limit, but opt according to number of runners, place terms, depth of race, running style, whether it’s a reliable performer or a moody creature and so on.

      Yes, more each-way would mean more frequent returns but I think in the long-term backing e/w those that have been advised as win only would reduce returns. But, if you’re more comfortable backing more each-way if that suits your betting style then I wouldn’t argue too hard against it because I think we should all only bet what and how we’re comfortable.

  20. John Criddle says:

    g/day miles, i think your doing a great job in your selections, i place an each way bet, on your winning bets occasionally, but in the long run i adhere to your knowledge and expertise in your selections, i would not like to see you compromise any of that.keep up the good work miles. regards john

  21. Michael Arnold says:

    Hi Miles
    I think I missed a text from you this morning with a new selection if so could you resend?
    Regards
    Mike

  22. John Criddle says:

    g/day, matt is a reverse forcast the same as a combination bet?
    regards john

  23. Kieran Hagan says:

    Great analysis/insight Miles. Thanks. Kieran

  24. Kieran Hagan says:

    Lovely winner with Agent Of Fortune today Miles but it makes me think. It was half stake and often when you go more than 1 point, they lose. Or is that just my imagination ? No doubt you keep a record of these things and I wonder how much difference level stakes would be (i.e. every bet 1 point win or 0.5 points EW) ?

    You must be looking forward to your break. You deserve it, it has been a long season this time.

    Kieran

    • Kieran Hagan says:

      Actually, just looking through the winners this year and it seems the large majority are 1 point stake, so perhaps it is just my imagination!

      • Miles Tredwell says:

        Cheers Kieran,
        Yes looking forward to and needing a break then to starting the winter season afresh with new energy, new targets and so on. It’s been a long and tough season!

        Regarding the occasional bets of more than 1 point, which are normally a quarter of a point more and very occasionally half a point more, it’s something you’ve mentioned a few times but that small extra amounts to under half a percent of the total staked over any period and the number of them is far too small to try to build any conclusion upon. In short, they are made when I have strong confidence that the price is offering particularly good value.

        Similarly, the normal stakes of 1 point or 0.75 points to win and 0.5 pts or 0.375 pts or less is decided upon by the amount of confidence, amount of perceived value and how speculative it is.

        The larger stakes do perform better and one of the aspects I will be looking at over the coming weeks is whether some of the smaller stakes bets detract from the service and results and, if so, what type of bets those are.

  25. Kieran Hagan says:

    Excellent write again Miles. It has been a losing year for me, but with only 1 non restricted bookie left, it was very hard to get on at the suggested stakes etc. That said, your knowledge, honesty and integrity really stand out for me and I for one will always hold you in the highest regard as a tipster.

  26. John Criddle says:

    g/day, miles, ive just read your appraisal for the season, in my opinion i found it interesting and very uplifting/informative and a small sense of negativity on your part, yes it could have been more profitable but you persevered and in my view that is very commendable.lets have some good profitable wagers on your return. oh by the way,had a very profitable bet on’good birthday’with 10/1 also, which i sometimes do is follow up on a trainer/jockey bet,yes and scooped the ‘landa beach’ at 50/1 just a £2 ew racks up the profits.did you spot it.all the best cobber.regards john

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Cheers John and thanks for your support. Yes, some negativity on my part- the season as a whole feels a bit like a nil-nil draw at home to the team bottom of the league- due to more being expected, but no damage done either just not the progress hoped for. Anyway, onwards and upwards and the AW season presents a different challenge and one I’m looking forward to.
      Nice odds on Landa there, good stuff. (Did spot it but it was a debutant and his runners normallly come on for a run or two which is why it wasn’t a selection.)

  27. John Mccrory says:

    Hi Miles, have a good break and look forward to hearing from you upon your return

  28. Philip Cuthbert says:

    Hi Miles, I can only echo what others have said above. May of been a bit of a disappointing season, but no need for any negativity. You have to take the rough with the smooth sometimes, which makes us appreciate the good times more.
    Have a good break and look forward to your return.

  29. Andy Conniff says:

    Hi Miles,

    Any chance of updating the results sheet for the last couple of days of the season (and for the Code)

    Cheers
    Andy

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi Andy,
      Sure. I’ve finished off The Synd’s today and cross-checked it with this page along with the summaries and will look to do the same with R Code asap. Will comment again when all done.

  30. John Mccrory says:

    Welcome back Miles, hope you got a well deserved break and head back to the grindstone as they say….didn’t get on today’s recommendations, bit of a mixed bag in the results with 1 place, 1 enhanced place and 1 loss….I’m sure that pencil is keeping your sharpener busy!!

    rgds

    Tony

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