EFL And FA Cup Trends And Tips

| August 23, 2019 | Reply

So far I’ve looked at trends for relegation and leading goalscorer and today I’ll finish the set with looking at the cup trends and listing the selections this analysis has pushed forward.

Here are the winners and runner-ups in the League Cup in the last ten years, along with their finishing position during that season and the previous one.

Similarly, here are the F.A. Cup final winners and losers:

Putting the two competitions together, of the 20 victors, 16 times in the last decade, the winners have been one of four clubs – Manchester City (6), Chelsea (4), Manchester United (3) and Arsenal (3). These four have also been losing finalists 6 times.

We can also see that 80% of the time, the cup winners were a side that finished in the top 6 in the Premier League and 85% had finished in the top 6 the previous season, including 70% who were in the top 4.

If these two findings are put together – any of Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal finishing in the top 4 the previous season – we would have had 30 bets of which 14 would have been successful.

It’s also worth noting that 90% of the 20 finals considered have been won by the team with the better finishing position in the previous season to each other. Even though many runner-ups have been from outside of the top 6 (12/20 in the season in question and 10/20 the season before), they have tended to fall one obstacle short.

However, there are some differences between the two competitions, most notably that Manchester City have won the league cup four times out of the last six whereas the last four years has provided four different FA Cup winners, although Arsenal have won it three times in the last six.

Such has been Man City’s success in the earlier run of the two competitions that it may worth solely backing them to make it five out of seven.

The FA Cup looks slightly more open. Considering Man City have won three out of four of the two competitions in the last two years and are the holders, they need including. With the last six years being won by a team finishing in the top 5 and both Arsenal and Chelsea being victorious 3 times each in the period looked at – between them winning 6 times out of the 8 when not won by Man City – they are also worth including.

Bet Summary

Relegation

Brighton. 0.75 points. 3 SportNation/RedZone, 2.875 BetVictor
Aston Villa. 1 point. 3.75 BlackType, 3.25 various bookmakers
Southampton. 0.75 points. 7 Bet365, 6.5 Boyles/Fred/Paddy/ Betfair Sportsbook

Top Goalscorer

Sadio Mane. 1 point win. 15 Unibet/888Sport/Spreadex/SportNation/Paddy/Betfair Sportsbook
Raheem Sterling. 0.75 points win. 15 various
Mo Salah. 0.75 points win. 6.5 Unibet/888Sport, 6 various

EFL Cup Winners

Manchester City. 1.5 points. 5 Maraton/Betway/Coral/Ladbrokes/Bet365

F.A. Cup Winners

Manchester City. 0.5 points. 4.5 SportingBet, 4.33 various
Chelsea. 0.5 points. 12 Unibet/888Sport, 11 various
Arsenal. 0.5 points. 15 Unibet/888Sport, 12 MoPlay/BetHard/SportNation/10Bet

Total of 8 points staked.

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Category: Betting Tips

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