Dissecting A Track Record

| February 20, 2012 | 10 Replies

Over the last couple of weeks I’ve had numerous queries about the new betting system that I’ve been working on…

Well, I’m pleased to announce that it has continued to perform well and it should be available to try out (at a very low price indeed) at some point in the next week or two.

Today then I thought I’d take you through the track record of my new system which has already made £1120 to just £20 stakes…

In doing so, I’ll also explain exactly what you should look for (aside from profit of course!), how you can use it to devise a staking plan/determine the size of your bank and the signs that can point to a fake.

There are two main parts to my system – single bets and multiple bets – so I’ll split the track record in two.

Strike Rate

It never ceases to amaze me how many promotions of so called ‘wundersystems’ lead with strike rate figures alone…

I don’t care if the strike rate is 99% – on its own that figure is irrelevant!

If a system has a 99% strike rate but the average odds are 1/500, you’ll still lose money overall…

Similarly, a system could have a 10% strike rate and still make money.

That’s not to say that the strike rate is irrelevant however, far from it in fact…

It’s actually crucial when determining a staking plan/size of bank because it tells you the biggest possible losing run that the system can hit.

Obviously the lower the strike rate, the longer that run is and therefore the bigger your bank needs to be.

Here are some examples:

Strike Rate / Max Likely Losing Run

10% / 66
20% / 31
25% / 24
50% / 10
60% / 8

Right then, onto my system…

Single bets: 176/290 (60.1%)
Multiple bets: 10/40 (25%)

Overall: 56.4%

As you can see, the single bets won’t require a particularly big bank but, as we’re also betting on larger odds multiples you should be looking at around a 50 point bank (£500 to £10 stakes) to guard against bad runs.

To finish this section, some warning signs:

* Be wary of any back system/service with a claimed strike rate of 70%+ – figures that high are nigh on impossible, even at short odds.

* Any back system/service with a claimed strike rate of 80%+ is almost certainly a scam.

* Lay services will have higher strike rates by their very nature but be wary of anything above 90% – even if they are factual, the likelihood is that the lay odds and therefore liability per bet are uncomfortably high.

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Total Profit

A couple of things to be wary of here…

* One system/service is not going to turn you into a millionaire – if the promotion claims otherwise, it’s a lie.

* Make sure you know what stakes would have been needed to make the claimed profit – £200 profit at £20 stakes is a very different proposition to £200 profit at £200 stakes.

My system to £20 stakes since Jan 2011:

Singles: £561.24
Multiples: £558.78

Overall: £1120.02

There’s no point promising the earth and then failing to deliver…

This system won’t make you rich but over £1000 profit in 12 months, to very reasonable stakes, for next to no work, is pretty good going I reckon.

Return On Investment (ROI)

This brings the whole track record together and is probably the key statistic as it shows you how much of an investment you have to make for your money…

A system may make £1000 a year but if it costs £100,000 to do so (a 1% ROI) is it really worth it?

I think not.

I’ll just show my system’s overall ROI here as we’re ‘bringing it all together’:

Overall: 11.8%

Again, this figure doesn’t leap off the page but it is realistic and, let’s face it, it’s significantly more than you’re ever going to get out of the bank!

As for warning signs, it’s difficult to put an exact figure on this but again, be wary of anything that sounds too good to be true – it usually is.

While you’re sure to find plenty of promotions floating around with claimed ROIs of 100%+…

Yes, really!

The likelihood is that these are all either bogus, or recorded in an incredibly short space of time (it’s easy to get a massive ROI from a handful of bets, not so from a decent sample size).

Any pro will tell you that 5-10% for any one strategy is a decent figure to aim for, so the 11.8% I’ve hit will do me just fine thank you very much!

As I said at the top of this piece, I’m hoping to have this system ready for you soon…

In the meantime, if you have any questions, you can get in touch via email or by leaving a comment below.

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Category: Betting Advice

Comments (10)

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  1. Henry says:

    Hey Matt,

    Sounds great! A 11.8% ROI with over 300 bets in less than 2 months…

    What is this system based on, horses I’m guessing?

    Also, I was wandering if I could email you about something to do with a system of my own? Let me know if that’s OK?

  2. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Henry,

    A year and less than two months (it’s 2012 now 😉 ), not just two months. I’d not be releasing a system after less than two months of testing!

    No, it’s football actually, which has plenty of benefits as more people can get on at the same odds, hence why I want to make this available to the masses – it should have very little, if any, affect on the odds.

    As for your system, yes of course, email away. It’s bettingrant@agorapub.co.uk.

    Regards,
    Matt

  3. Henry says:

    Yes, your absolutely right – my mistake, no idea why I read it as 2 months.

    Football, that’s great, I’ll definitely be interested then. Any idea on a release yet?

    And thanks, I’ll send you the email now.

  4. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Well the Private Betting Club will be closing on Thursday so either next week or the week after.

  5. whiskyd says:

    What is the longest seg of losers ie losing run and how often

  6. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Whiskyd,

    It’s difficult to give exact figures for the single bets because a lot of them take place at the same time.

    The most useful figure would be the strike rate which is 60% so you’d be unlikely to have a losing run of more than four, with winning runs of six or seven very possible.

    The longest losing run for multiples has been 10 and the longest winning run two.

    Regards,
    Matt

  7. whiskyd says:

    Thanks. whiskyd

  8. Clayton Nel says:

    Hi there,

    Thought I’d sign up and give this a try.

    So what is the next step here? Do I have to join a specific betting platform?

    Will someone get in touch with me to talk me through this process?

    Regards,

    Clayton

  9. Clayton Nel says:

    Following my initial email, I sure i was meant to be sent a guide on what to avoid when placing bets etc…?

    Will that still get sent over?

    Regards,

    Clayton

    • Hi Clayton,

      Have you received the order confirmation email? That has a link to the User Guide and also the service website. The Killer Mistakes guide will be sent separately via email over the course of the next couple of days.

      The User Guide should include everything you need to get set up but let me know if you have any questions. It may be quicker to email bettingrant@agorapub.co.uk because I have to manually moderate all the comments on this site and don’t check it as often as my emails.

      Regards,
      Matt

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