Why Clichés Are Costing You Money

| May 25, 2018 | Reply

There are few more damaging things to a person’s betting than a cliché.

It’s the whole ‘assumption is the mother of all f*ck ups’ line…

A cliché is essentially an assumption and assumptions can prove costly.

2:0 is the most dangerous scoreline…

Stoke is a tough place to go…

Finals tend to be cagey affairs…

The first one, well, that’s obviously guff but, even if you don’t think it’s the MOST dangerous scoreline, you’d probably still be surprised how rarely two goal leads are overturned, but only because you’re so used to hearing that cliché.

The second one is more about the perception of home advantage in general…

Sure, there does tend to be a home advantage in football but it’s often wildly overrated by bookmakers and bettors alike – Burnley won seven home games this season and seven away games, Man City won 16 and 16, West Brom three and three.

The third one, however, is the cliché I want to focus on today.

The final fallacy

How often do you hear it?

“Major finals tend to be tight, cagey affairs”

I heard it just last night in a text conversation with a mate and I’ve heard it plenty of times in text and audio previews over the past few weeks.

Tomorrow, Liverpool play Real Madrid in the Champions League final so I thought I’d do a little digging.

And I’ve found one hell of a stat…

The average number of goals per game in every single Premier League (the ‘most entertaining league in the world’ remember) game in the 2017/18 season was 2.68.

The average number of goals (not including extra time) in every Champions League final is…

Wait for it…


I kid you not.

It’s almost as if – and this might blow you away – finals are one off matches which can be low scoring or high scoring, dependant on the teams involved…

Much like every single Premier League game.

Sure, there’s a lot riding on a final but there’s also a lot riding on a large number of league matches (promotion, relegation, league titles, European spots, managers clinging on to jobs etc. etc.)…

In fact, you could actually mark up the 2.68 goals per game achieved in Champions League finals because they’re almost always being played between two teams of similar ability levels and you don’t get big miss-matches which lead to huge wins that skew the results (Man City beating Stoke 7-2 or Watford 6-0 this season for example).

Furthermore, you can usually pick out the finals that are going to be low scoring affairs…

The only all-Italian final was 0-0.

Manchester United vs. Chelsea was 1-1.

The two derby finals between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid were both 1-1.

That all-Italian 0-0 by the way was the only ever Champions League final that finished 0-0 and, since that final (in 2002-03) there have been at least two goals in 90 minutes in every single Champions League final.

So, what’s the score going to be Matt?

Frankly, I have no idea what the score will be between Liverpool and Real Madrid and I’m certainly not sending this email to make out like I’m some sort of genius when there are four or five goals tomorrow…

I mean, let’s face it, every man and his dog is predicting goals in THIS final!

My point is that even before this possible goal-fest the stats simply don’t back up the ‘cagey final’ cliché, just as the stats don’t back up the vast majority of football clichés…

So, next time you here one, make sure that you first of all ignore it and you second of all get on Oddschecker and see if you can exploit it by betting against the crowd.


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Category: Betting Opinion

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