The Syndicate

Cheltenham 2019: Live Text Day Four

| March 15, 2019 | 5 Replies

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17:10

Not a huge amount to say about this race really other than enjoy it and fingers crossed we round out the week with a winner. We have had a winner from our last tip of the day each day so far.

Thank you very much for joining me this week and I hope you made a decent overall profit.

For full Syndicate members, I will be posting up any selections for tomorrow on the usual page by 10pm tonight.

17:00

While I go and bang my head against a brick wall, here’s our final selection of the Festival…

17:30 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

An impossible handicap to end with… or is it? Fancied horses actually have a reasonable record in this and have also had a reasonable record in handicaps at this year’s Festival generally.

Dallas Des Pictons is the one here. He’s thoroughly unexposed, has no problem with dodgy ground and runs for last year’s winning trainer.

Selections WITH offers

Dallas Des Pictons – 1 point win (max stake £10) – 7/2 with Betway (BOG, free bet if a loser)

Selections WITHOUT offers

Dallas Des Pictons – 1 point win – 7/2 available generally (take a BOG bookie)

16:57

Fun fact, I tipped Croco Bay both of the last two times he’s run in this race. Arghhhhhhhhhhhhh. That sort of day.

1st Croco Bay 66/1
2nd Bun Doran 11/1
3rd Brelan D’As 8/1
4th Forest Bihan 33/1

16:36

A full round-up email will be sent out on Monday by the way which will include the competition winners and all the results of the tips. Whatever happens in the last couple of races, those backing all the selections will finish up with a healthy profit.

16:34

Right then, we can still finish with a flourish (and the lifechanger did still make a small profit). Let’s bag the winner of the…

16:50 Grand Annual

Magic Saint looks like a classic group horse in a handicap and looks worth a win bet even at a skinny price.

Gino Trail is the complete opposite age and experience wise but simply has to be an each-way bet at the price. He’s incredibly tough, incredibly consistent and finished second in this last year off the same mark. Sure he’s 12 now but two good seconds last month suggest he’s lost none of his talent.

Selections WITH and WITHOUT offers

Magic Saint – 1 point win – 5/1 available generally (take a BOG bookie)

Gino Trail – 1/2 point each-way (1 point TOTAL) – 20/1 available generally (take a BOG bookie, 5 places, 1/5 odds)

16:29

Sorry about the lack of updates, my internet has been playing up. A bit like our selections today!

16:26

Shantou Flyer finishes second for us for the second Festival in a row. It’s a small profit at least!

1st Hazel Hill 7/2
2nd Shantou Flyer 7/1
3rd Top Wood 33/1

15:39

Not our day at all.

1st Al Boum Photo 12/1
2nd Anibale Fly 22/1
3rd Bristol Du Mai 18/1

15:26

By the way, not an official bet this but I have put a free bet on a tricast – Presenting Percy, Clan Des Obeaux, Native River.

15:22

So basically Presenting Percy has it wrapped up 😉

15:21

That puts it between two but only one 7 year old has won this in the last 10 years and Clan Des Obeaux is 7.

15:20

That would put it between the front three in the market and one of those, Native River is bidding to win two on the spin. Only the legendary Kauto Star has done that in recent times.

15:18

So unlike the last race this one is usually dominated by favoured horses. There’s just been one winner bigger than 8/1 in the last 10 years.

15:17

Sorry, my internet has decided to die on me. Great timing!

15:04

A disappointing day so far but that will hopefully all change with the main event.

15:30 Gold Cup

If Presenting Percy wins this our ‘lifechanger’ won’t be life-changing but it will produce a very nice profit. Assuming you have that bet I’d just have a small saver on Clan Des Obeaux who comes from the flying Paul Nicholls stable.

If you don’t have that Yankee bet then the wager here is a 1 point win on Presenting Percy.

Welsh National winner Elegant Escape will stay all day and looks worth a small each-way at the prices.

Selections if you placed the ‘lifechanger’ yankee bet

Clan Des Obeaux – 1/2 point win – 5/1 with SkyBet, Ladbrokes or Coral (all BOG)

Elegant Escape – 1/4 point each-way (1/2 point TOTAL) – 18/1 available generally (take a BOG bookie, offering 4 places, 1/5 odds)

Selections if you DIDN’T place the yankee bet

Presenting Percy – 1 point win – 4/1 with bet365 (BOG, risk free bet up to £50 on the next ITV race if a winner)

Elegant Escape – 1/4 point each-way (1/2 point TOTAL) – 18/1 available generally (take a BOG bookie, offering 4 places, 1/5 odds)

14:59

Well I did say big prices often take it. Ours was back in 6th.

1st Minella Indo 50/1
2nd Commander Of Fleet 4/1
3rd Allaho 8/1

14:27

I’m going to have a short break now until after this race.

14:24

If you fancy a big price in this (even bigger than our selection!) don’t be put off as there have been two 33/1 winners in the last five years and a couple of other double digit odds winners to boot.

14:21

On we go then to the…

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

It takes a more experienced slogger to win this, hence why it’s so often won by larger priced horses. With that in mind I’m dodging the unexposed favourites and siding with Derrinross. All of his form is on soft and heavy ground and two wins out of two over three miles also suggests he has plenty of class.

Selections WITH and WITHOUT offers

Derrinross – 1/2 point each-way (1 point TOTAL) – 12/1 with Ladbrokes or Black Type (both BOG, 4 places, 1/5 odds)

14:18

Well we managed 8th, 9th and 10th which is a kind of tricast!

1st Ch’tibello 12/1
2nd We Have A Dream 14/1
3rd Countista 18/1
4th Whiskey Sour 5/1

13:59

Due Reward is our largest price selection and looks hugely over-priced. He has the excellent Rachel Blackmore on board who has already won a handicap this week and comes into this race off the back of a good trial at Leopardstown. He also ticks a lot of the trend boxes.

13:54

Mr Adjudicator ran an excellent second in last year’s Triumph Hurdle, a race that also contained Apple’s Shakira, who ran really well in the Coral Hurdle on Wednesday.

On his sole run this season he finished a good second to Champion Hurdle winner Espoir D’Allen and it’s interesting that he’s been held back to make his handicap debut in this one.

13:50

Reasoning for you…

Monsieur Lecoq ran last weekend in the Imperial Cup at Sandown and though that’s unusually recent for a Cheltenham runner, horses that do well in that race often do quite well here too.

He did especially well in that race too, finishing a close second, and is actually 3lbs lower for that. I’d be disappointed if he doesn’t go close.

13:47

Well that’s a pretty rotten way to lose a bet and the placepot. Hopefully the second race will provide some cheer.

14:10 County Handicap Hurdle

We had the winner of this a couple of years ago and I like the look of the following trio. I’ll expand on why in the live text.

Selections WITH and WITHOUT offers

Monsieur Lecoq – 0.375 point each-way (0.75 point TOTAL) – 9/1 with SkyBet (BOG, 6 places, 1/5 odds)

Mr Adjudicator – 0.375 point each-way (0.75 point TOTAL) – 11/1 with Unibet (BOG, 6 places, 1/4 odds)

Due Reward – 0.375 point each-way (0.75 point TOTAL) – 40/1 with Ladbrokes (BOG, 6 places, 1/5 odds)

13:44

That’s really horrible to see as Sir Erec goes wrong.

1st Pentland Hills 20/1
2nd Coeur Sublime 20/1
3rd Gardens Of Babylon 9/1

13:32

Nice little drift on Sir Erec. Losing a shoe is irrelevant really.

13:27

Right, after that false start, welcome to day four!

It’s almost time to cheer on Sir Erec, so I’ll be back after the race with a competition update and to expand on our County Hurdle selections.

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