The Football Investor

The Weekly Updates: 2016/17 (Part Two)

| December 21, 2016 | 7 Replies

Friday 28th April 2017

It’s going to be fairly quiet between now and the end of the season but we do have a couple of selections this weekend.

Goal-den Formula

We’re down to Italy only for the Goal-den Formula, with every other league within four matches of completion.

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Sunday – Italian Serie A – Genoa vs. Chievo – 10/13 with 188Bet or 3/4 with Betstars or Bwin

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

Pretty straightforward this…

Palace have won six of their last nine and Burnley have four away points (and zero wins) ALL season.

Saturday 17:30 – Premier League – Crystal Palace to beat Burnley – 1 point – 4/5 available generally

Tuesday 25th April 2017

We were just one away from our Goal-den six-fold at the weekend but a profit was made overall at least and we have a chance of a bit more cash this midweek.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Wednesday – Premier league – Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham – 5/7 with 10Bet or 7/10 with Betstars

Under 2.5 Goals

Thursday – Spanish La Liga – Alaves vs. Eibar – 8/11 with 188Bet or 7/10 with Betstars

Accumulator

Two selections above – Double – 2.94 with 188Bet or 2.89 with Betstars

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

Much as they’re usually overrated, Manchester United are in excellent form and it’s City instead who look overrated on Thursday at a shade of odds on. This works out nicely for us as we have wagers on Liverpool to finish top four and United not to, so the following bet is both good value and a decent little hedge.

Thursday 20:00 – Premier League – Man Utd to beat Man City – ½ point – 17/5 with Betfair Sportsbook or 33/10 available generally

Friday 21st April 2017

Certainly looks like it’s going to be a fun weekend on the basis of our Goal-den Formula qualifiers!

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Saturday – Premier League – West Ham vs. Everton – 8/13 with Paddy Power, Betstars or 10Bet
Saturday – German Bundesliga – Hamburg vs. Darmstadt – 10/11 with bet365, William Hill or Stan James
Saturday – German Bundesliga – Ingolstadt vs. Werder Bremen – 4/6 with Paddy Power or 8/13 elsewhere
Sunday – Premier League – Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace – 5/6 with Bwin or 4/5 elsewhere
Sunday – Italian Serie A – Udinese vs. Cagliari – 5/8 with 188Bet or 8/13 elsewhere
Sunday – Italian Serie A – Chievo vs. Torino – 8/15 with Betstars or 10Bet

Accumulator

Six selections above – HALF point – 22.25 with Betstars or 21.98 with 188Bet

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

No bets in this section. I was very tempted to back in-form Tottenham against Chelsea but we already have a pre-season bet on them to win the Cup and I don’t want to double up.

If they do get through I’ll look to hedge pre-final.

Friday 14th April 2017

Hopefully these selections will result in an eggscellent Easter.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Saturday – Italian Serie A – Cagliari vs. Chievo – 14/19 with 10Bet or 8/11 with Betstars
Saturday – Italian Serie A – Torino vs. Crotone – 13/20 with Betstars or 11/17 with 188Bet
Sunday – German Bundesliga – Werder Bremen vs. Hamburg – 9/13 with 10Bet or 4/6 with Betstars

Accumulator

Three selections above – 4.77 with Betstars or 4.76 with 10Bet

Matt’s Eyecatchers

I like the look of a couple of prices this weekend but we’ll keep stakes small.

The first is Swansea at bigger than 2/1 to beat a coasting Watford…

This is the part of the season when teams fighting relegation tend to up their game and, while Swansea’s recent form has been poor (hence the conservative stake), a match with Watford looks an ideal opportunity to reignite their survival bid. The Hornets were hammered 4-0 by Tottenham last week and have only won five times since mid-November (one of which was against Sunderland so doesn’t really count).

My other fancy is a draw at Old Trafford. Unsurprising really given Man Utd have drawn nine home league games this season. With opponents Chelsea likely to be happy enough with a draw (this is their last remaining match versus top six opposition) this one has 0-0 or 1-1 written all over it.

Saturday 15:00 – Premier League – Swansea to beat Watford – 1/2 point – 47/20 with Marathon or 23/10 elsewhere

Sunday 16:00 – Premier League – Man Utd vs. Chelsea – Draw – 1/2 point – 9/4 with Betfair Sportsbook or Marathon

Friday 14th April 2017

There are no selections for today’s matches and I have a train to catch, so I’ll post selections for the weekend tonight. They should be up no later than 9pm.

Tuesday 11th April 2017

It’s all about the Champions League and Europa League this midweek and, while I don’t have any selections (though I was mildly tempted by Juventus at 7/4), we do have a big interest in the former with our 20/1 ante-post selection, Borussia Dortmund, in action tonight.

There are also some decent bookie offers running including your favourite and mine, bet365’s £50 in-play offer, so do get stuck into those if you can.

Friday 7th April 2017

It’s getting to that point of the season where a lot of games have an uncompetitive feel to them, as mid table sides settle into mid table for another year and a lot of other games have a trappy feel to them as relegation threatened sides take on those challenging near the top. As a consequence we have a Premier League fixture list filled with games like Man City vs. Hull (City are a very short price but do you really want to back Hull to take something from the Etihad?) and West Brom vs. Southampton (yawn).

The only bet that makes mild appeal is Tottenham to beat Watford because, well, they will beat Watford but at 2/7 what’s the point?

There are also no Goal-den Formula selections this weekend which means that we’re left with nothing really.

Well, nothing bar a Grand National tip…

Insert the ‘it’s a bit of a lottery’ clause here but my main fancy this year is Thunder And Roses. You can currently back him at 40/1 with SkyBet.

Tuesday 4th April 2017

We’ve had good success with Goal-den Formula doubles recently and will hopefully land another winner this midweek.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Under 2.5 Goals

TONIGHT – Premier League – Burnley vs. Stoke – 13/20 with William Hill or 8/13 with Betstars

Both Teams to Score

Wednesday – Premier League – Arsenal vs. West Ham – 13/18 with Bwin or 4/6 with Betstars

Accumulator

Two selections above – 2.71 with Betstars or 2.7 with Bwin

Friday 31st March 2017

We were painfully close to landing another international acca last week with just one side letting us down (the Faroes drawing 0-0) but not to worry as domestic football is back!

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Sunday – Italian Serie A – Torino vs. Udinese – 5/8 with 188Bet or 8/13 available generally

Under 2.5 Goals

Saturday – Spanish La Liga – Real Sociedad vs. Leganes – 69/100 with Marathon or 8/13 with Stan James

Accumulator

Two selections above – 2.62 with Betstars or 188Bet

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

I could make a case for any and all of West Ham (21/10), Bournemouth (5/1) and Middlesbrough (57/17) being overpriced but I’m not sure I can quite bring myself to back any of them, so it’s a no bet weekend for me.

Wednesday 22nd March 2017

While international football weekend is an irritant to most, for us it’s an opportunity to profit…

Accas are a mug’s game you say? Two winning international accas out of four this season and 33 correct selections out of 35 I say!

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

As ever, the key thinking behind my international accas (which have been regularly winning for a lot longer than 12 months) is that, despite the old cliché, there really ARE easy games in international football these days. Sure, odds of 1/10 on most things offers zero value but odds of 1/10 on a team to lose who have lost 20 or 30 games in a row… well, if that’s not value, then I don’t know what is.

Turkey to beat Finland (Friday)

Turkey may only be 4th in their group but they’ve started qualifying pretty well, drawing with Croatia and Ukraine while also seeing off Kosovo. They’ve always had a strong home record (11 wins in their last 19) and Finland haven’t been especially good for a long time now.

Italy to beat Albania (Friday)

This is what I mean by value despite the short odds. Would Italy win at home against Albania more than four in every five (competitive) attempts? Of course they would.

Faroe Islands to beat Andorra (Saturday)

The Faroes make their Matt Houghton international acca debut and I think they’ve earned it. They’ve pulled off a number of eye-catching results in the last few years (wins home and away against Greece chief among them) and they already have four points in this qualifying group, drawing at home to Hungary and winning in Latvia. Andorra on the other hand haven’t avoided defeat in a competitive match since 2005.

Bosnia to beat Gibraltar (Saturday)

Another first here – the first time I’ve remembered to spell Gibraltar ‘tar’ rather than ‘ter’.

Switzerland to beat Latvia (Saturday)

Despite their unexciting tournament record, Switzerland have mastered the art of qualification and they’ve done so by winning games like this one with ease. Not surprising really given they were once managed by Roy Hodgson.

France to beat Luxembourg (Saturday)

I always hesitate backing France at short prices (we dodged them when they drew with Belarus earlier in this campaign) but lads, it’s Luxembourg.

Germany to beat Azerbaijan (Sunday)

Yet another opportunity to bring out one of my favourite stats… A united Germany has NEVER lost a World Cup qualifier away from home.

England to beat Lithuania (Sunday)

Meh.

Czech Republic to beat San Marino (Sunday)

San Marino lost a friendly to Andorra recently.

Slovakia to beat Malta (Sunday)

I went to Malta last year. It’s lovely.

Northern Ireland to beat Norway (Sunday)

It’s handy that this (along with Malta vs. Slovakia) is the last match to take place as it could well provide excellent hedging material, especially if Northern Ireland take the lead early – a distinct possibility given the superb atmosphere at Windsor Park. In its own right the 16/11 on a home win looks good value here with Norn Iron unbeaten in their last seven home qualifiers. Norway have been poor in qualification so far, losing to Azerbaijan, who were thumped 4-0 by Northern Ireland, and even conceding a goal to San Marino.

Place before 17:00 Friday – 11 selections above – 1 point accumulator – 11.44 with Ladbrokes (money back as a free bet up to £25 if one selection lets us down)

As is standard I’ll be tweeting acca updates here including any hedging approach I may take if we get as far as the Northern Ireland match.

Friday 17th March 2016

Just Goal-den Formula again this weekend – it’s served us well the last couple of weeks!

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Saturday – German Bundesliga – Augsburg vs. Freiburg – 10/11 with bet365 or William Hill
Sunday – Premier League – Tottenham vs. Southampton – 19/20 with Betfair Sportsbook or 10/11 with William Hill
Sunday – German Bundesliga – Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Bayern Munich – 9/10 with Stan James or 5/6 elsewhere

Under 2.5 Goals

Sunday – Premier League – Middlesbrough vs. Manchester United – 8/11 with Bet Victor or 7/10 elsewhere

Accumulator

Four selections above – 11.53 with Betfair Sportsbook

Friday 10th March 2016

It’s a weekend low on betting opportunities with only Swansea at better than 2/1 tempting me but we do have a Goal-den Formula double and a second one of those winning in a row would be just the ticket.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Monday – Spanish La Liga – Osasuna vs. Eibar – 14/19 with 10Bet or 7/10 elsewhere

Under 2.5 Goals

Sunday – Italian Serie A – Sassuolo vs. Bologna – 17/20 with Marathon or 5/6 with Betstars

Accumulator

Two selections above – 3.13 with 10Bet or 3.09 with Betstars

Friday 3rd March 2016

It’s a bit busier this weekend with a return for our very successful Player performance bets the highlight.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Saturday – Spanish La Liga – Eibar vs. Real Madrid – 4/6 With BET365, Betstars, 32Red or 888Sport

Under 2.5 Goals

Saturday – Premier League – Stoke vs. Middlesbrough – 13/20 with Betstars or 6/10 elsewhere

Accumulator

Two selections above – 2.76 with Betstars

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

The ‘biggest’ game of the Premier League weekend is often not the best game but that looks unlikely to be the case with Liverpool hosting Arsenal tomorrow evening.

No fixture in Premier League history has produced more goals after the 90th minute (16) than this one and few can have produced as many goals before that point either. The reverse fixture finished 3-4 and that was far from an anomaly with the six contests prior to that seven goal thriller finishing 3-3, 0-0, 4-1, 2-2, 2-1 and 5-1. Even the 0-0 was a good match with only the woodwork and some inspired goalkeeping maintaining the stalemate.

The question is how to attack the match with all that in mind and I’ve decided to go down the following route.

All bets are on Premier League – Saturday 17:30 – Liverpool vs. Arsenal…

Liverpool to win and both teams to score – ½ point – 3/1 with Paddy Power
Arsenal to win and both teams to score – ½ point – 51/10 with 188Bet or 5/1 generally
Correct score 2-2 – ¼ point – 14/1 with William Hill or Paddy Power
Correct score – 3-3 – ¼ point – 55/1 with Paddy Power

Cue a 0-0 draw!!

Fantasy 8

I’m also going to have a bet on Squawka Bet’s (link) Fantasy 8 market…

If you’re a new member and you’ve not heard of this market the premise is simple: the players named (there are eight of them) get two points for an assist and three points for a goal and the player with the most points wins.

I’ve also got my hands on a promo code for you that will give you a NO DEPOSIT £5 free bet when you sign up and enter the promo code: FF.

You can take advantage of this freebie here.

It’s a pretty simple selection this week…

Bournemouth are in awful form, particularly at the back and have conceded at least two goals in each of their last eight games.

Zlatan Ibrahimovich is in great form, scoring seven in his last six games.

Squawka Bet currently have Sergio Aguero as favourite but he hasn’t been in great form for a while now and the rest of this week’s list looks no great shakes, with points likely to be at a premium in Tottenham vs. Everton, Leicester vs. Hull and West Ham vs. Chelsea.

Place before 12:30 tomorrow – Zlatan Ibrahimovic – Fantasy 8, Premier League Entertainers – ½ point – 11/4 with Squawka Bet ONLY

Player Performance

In this section we’ll be targeting a very specific market – the Player Performance market on Sporting Index.

For those who are new to spread betting or to this market in particular, the rules are as follows…

• Each player has a spread, for example 53-58 and you either choose to sell the spread at the lower number (53 in this case) or buy it at the higher number (58 in this case).

• If you sell you want the player to score less than the number of points and if you buy you want them to score more. The points scoring is as follows:

Goal scored: 25 points
Goal assisted: 10 points
Shot on target: 5 points
Forcing a corner: 3 points
Free kick won: 3 points
Pass to player in opposition half: 2 points
Free kick conceded: -3 points
Yellow card: -10 points
Red card: -25 points

• You win or lose your stake multiplied by the amount you were right or wrong by, so if you buy at 58 and your player gets 78 points you win 20 times your stake. If you buy at 58 and they get 38 points you lose 20 times your stake.

The person who is providing these selections has been doing so for a significant period of time and has found that this particular market often offers excellent value which is something he is able to pinpoint due to the vast statistical database which he has at his disposal.

The biggest swing on any one selection tends to be around the 30 point mark (though please do be aware that you could win OR lose more than that) so I’m going to suggest placing these bets with a 0.05 point stake, so that’s 50p if you’re betting to £10 a point.

Anyway, here’s our selection:

Tomorrow 12:30 – Premier League – Manchester United vs. Bournemouth – Player Performance – 0.05 point – Sell Carrick at 65 – Sporting Index only

This weekend’s Premier League kicks off with an intriguing-looking lunchtime affair from Old Trafford as Bournemouth visit Manchester United, and it may not be as one-way as the layers suggest.

United have been in great form culminating in last week’s League Cup win over Southampton but it was a game in which Saints had the ball for large spells and we can expect Bournemouth to do likewise, particularly if United take a first-half lead. The Cherries have the best possession stats in the Premier League outside of the big six plus Southampton, and they don’t tend to change their approach in matches against superior opposition.

The fact United may enjoy less of the ball than normal as a result of this means Michael Carrick, the one United player who is only about possession, looks a sell @ 65. Carrick, whilst steadying the ship in midfield, has sometimes looked tired in matches this season and was taken off at half-time in his last league start against Hull. He has averaged around the sell quote this season overall but may not get it all his own way tomorrow and offers next-to-no threat of the big points from goals and shots.

Please note: If you don’t already have a Sporting Index account they have a fantastic welcome offer – simply sign up here and you’ll get £100 free credit with no deposit required. It’ll be removed from your account after a week but any overall profit you make with it you’ll be able to keep.

Friday 24th February 2017

Not a lot appeals this weekend but hopefully we’ll land a nice Goal-den Formula multiple – we’re due one!

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Under 2.5 Goals

Sunday – Italian Serie A – Crotone vs. Cagliari – 39/50 with Marathon or 13/20 with Bet Victor

Both Teams to Score

Sunday – Italian Serie A – Chievo vs. Pescara – 13/20 with Betstars or 11/17 with Bwin
Sunday – Spanish La Liga – Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona – 7/9 with 888Sport or 19/29 with Bet Bright

Accumulator

All of the selections above – Treble – 5.05 with 888Sport

Friday 17th February 2017

Not the worst results for Dortmund in midweek. Yes, they’re 1-0 down but that’s certainly recoverable in front of a raucous home crowd and elsewhere the competition favourites, Barcelona, were all but dumped out.

It’s the FA Cup this weekend but we do have some selections.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Sunday – Italian Serie A – Pescara vs. Genoa – 11/18 with 188Bet or 4/7 with Bwin
Sunday – Spanish La Liga – Valencia vs. Athletic Bilbao – 9/11 with 888Sport or 4/5 with 32Red

Accumulator

All of the selections above – Double – 2.88 with 888Sport or 32Red

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

We’re just about past the stage at which giant killings regularly happen in the FA Cup and with the big boys now casting at least one eye on cup glory I think the time is right for an acca. In many ways this is like one of my famous international accas – just because the odds are short it doesn’t mean they don’t offer value.

Burnley to beat Lincoln

Burnley’s home record in the Premier League is phenomenal (only Chelsea and Tottenham’s is better) so the 1/3 looks extremely generous against a non-league side.

Man City to beat Huddersfield

Huddersfield are having a great season but Guardiola has work on to keep the Man City faithful happy and his attacking approach means the little guys will get trampled more often than not.

Middlesbrough to beat Oxford

Boro have made short work of similar opponents in the last couple of rounds and with home advantage I see no reason why this one should be any different.

Man Utd to beat Blackburn

This is the 5874th televised Manchester United FA Cup match in a row and I’ve no doubt it’ll be about the 586th time they’ve cruised past a lower league side.

Romance, what bloody romance?!

The four selections above – 1 point accumulator – 3.91 with 188Bet or 3.82 with Paddy Power

I’ll likely kick myself for not tipping any of these but, if you are looking for cupsets, Millwall (39/19), plus the draw in the Wolves Chelsea (9/2) and Fulham Tottenham (3/1) matches look worth a few quid.

Tuesday 14th February 2017

There’s nothing of real interest in the Champions League or Europa League this midweek so we’ll just have to be content with picking up a few quid from bookie offers and cheering on our 20/1 ante-post bet Borussia Dortmund.

Friday 10th February 2017

It’s an unusually quiet weekend but there’s still a couple of decent betting opportunities.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Monday – Premier League – Bournemouth vs. Manchester City – 8/11 with Betstars or 188Bet

Friday 3rd February 2017

We made a small profit midweek courtesy of another excellent Player Performance bet and will look to build on that this weekend.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Saturday – Spanish La Liga – Valencia vs. Eibar – 9/13 with 10Bet or 888Sport
Sunday – Premier League – Manchester City vs. Swansea – 19/20 with Betstars or Betfair Sportsbook
Sunday – Italian Serie A _ Genoa vs. Sassuolo – 13/18 with 888Sport or 4/6 available generally

Under 2.5 Goals

Sunday – Italian Serie A – Empoli vs. Torino – 4/5 with Marathon or 8/11 with Matchbook

Accumulator

Four selections above – 9.27 with 188Bet or 9.20 with 888Sport

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

Southampton, Man City and Man Utd all look a bit short this weekend but I’m going to restrict myself to just the one wager and it comes in Squawka Bet Fantasy 8 market…

If you’re a new member and you’ve not heard of this market the premise is simple: the players named (there are eight of them) get two points for an assist and three points for a goal and the player with the most points wins.

I’ve also got my hands on a promo code for you that will give you a NO DEPOSIT £5 free bet when you sign up and enter the promo code FF.

You can take advantage of this freebie here.

One of the best bits about this market is they offer each-way which, given there are only eight runners, means a single goal from your selection is usually enough for at least a place.

This week I’d be disappointed if my selection doesn’t score at least once and a mere place will be enough for a good profit at big odds of 18/1. Here are the runners…

Harry Kane (11/4): A worthy favourite but Boro have a great defensive record (even if they can’t score for toffee) so Harris will do well to net more than once.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic (9/2): Failed to score against Hull on Wednesday and Leicester have actually been reasonably good at home this season.

Romelu Lukaku (9/2): I was close to going in on Rom given Bournemouth’s awful defensive record recently but he doesn’t score more than once in a match that often and doesn’t tend to get many assists either, so while he’ll likely place I’m not sure the odds are big enough for the win part.

Kevin De Bruyne (5/1): Far too short a price. Swansea have won two on the bounce and De Bruyne isn’t a regular goalscorer.

Diego Costa (7/1): Likely to be involved in a tight match against Arsenal. Conte would be more than happy to take a draw in this one.

Phillipe Coutinho (15/2): Hull have looked much better since the appointment of Marco Silva and Coutinho doesn’t look up to full speed yet following his recent injury.

Alexis Sanchez (14/1): See Costa, Diego.

Which brings us on to our selection…

Troy Deeney (18/1): Troy Deeney had been going through an extended dry spell recently but Watford’s main man has looked much better in recent weeks, netting in both of his last two league matches, away to Bournemouth and Arsenal. That latter strike helped seal a win over the Gunners that will provide Watford with a massive boost ahead of the home tie with Burnley on Saturday afternoon. The key word in that last sentence is ‘home’ because while Burnley have been phenomenal on their own patch (only Chelsea and Tottenham have better records!) on their travels they’ve picked up just one point. Given one goal may well be enough for Deeney to place – and our man also takes penalties – 18/1 looks a great price.

Place before 12:30 tomorrow – Troy Deeney – Fantasy 8, Premier League Entertainers – ½ point each-way (1 point TOTAL) – 18/1 with Squawka Bet ONLY

Tuesday 31st January 2017

We’ve got midweek Premier League fixtures – a quite wonderful thing.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Wednesday – Premier League – West Ham vs. Manchester City – 7/10 with 188Bet or 4/6 elsewhere
Wednesday – Italian Serie A – Pescara vs. Fiorentina – 7/9 with 188Bet or 8/11 elsewhere

Accumulator

Two selections above – 3.03 with 188Bet or 2.96 with 32Red

Player Performance

In this section we’ll be targeting a very specific market – the Player Performance market on Sporting Index.

For those who are new to spread betting or to this market in particular, the rules are as follows…

• Each player has a spread, for example 53-58 and you either choose to sell the spread at the lower number (53 in this case) or buy it at the higher number (58 in this case).

• If you sell you want the player to score less than the number of points and if you buy you want them to score more. The points scoring is as follows:

Goal scored: 25 points
Goal assisted: 10 points
Shot on target: 5 points
Forcing a corner: 3 points
Free kick won: 3 points
Pass to player in opposition half: 2 points
Free kick conceded: -3 points
Yellow card: -10 points
Red card: -25 points

• You win or lose your stake multiplied by the amount you were right or wrong by, so if you buy at 58 and your player gets 78 points you win 20 times your stake. If you buy at 58 and they get 38 points you lose 20 times your stake.

The person who is providing these selections has been doing so for a significant period of time and has found that this particular market often offers excellent value which is something he is able to pinpoint due to the vast statistical database which he has at his disposal.

The biggest swing on any one selection tends to be around the 30 point mark (though please do be aware that you could win OR lose more than that) so I’m going to suggest placing these bets with a 0.05 point stake, so that’s 50p if you’re betting to £10 a point.

Anyway, here’s our selection:

TONIGHT 20:00 – Premier League – Liverpool vs. Chelsea – Player Performance – 0.05 point – Sell Matic at 39 – Sporting Index only

Tonight sees Chelsea visit Anfield in the first of two huge games this week for the Blues in their quest for the title, and the consistent tactical approach which has served them so well should be expected again here.

This means central midfield duo Nemanja Matic and N’Golo Kante sitting deep to protect the back three as they have done in recent games against top opponents Manchester City and Tottenham twice, resulting in low Player Performance make-ups for the pair in those fixtures; the same may be the case tonight.

The Blues will be happy with a draw which may mean they sit back further than usual too, against a Liverpool team who will be desperate to avoid four home defeats in a row and will look to impose their high-press from the first whistle as usual. Matic has had fewer than half the number of shots Kante has this season and is the same quote, so is the preferred sell of the two.

Please note: If you don’t already have a Sporting Index account they have a fantastic welcome offer – simply sign up here and you’ll get £100 free credit with no deposit required. It’ll be removed from your account after a week but any overall profit you make with it you’ll be able to keep.

Friday 27th January 2017

It’s FA Cup weekend so it’s quieter than usual but we do have some Goal-den Formula bets. Happily there’s also a full set of Premier league fixtures next midweek which we’ll be getting stuck into.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Saturday – Italian Serie A – Inter Milan vs. Pescara – 23/25 with Marathon or 10/11 with Matchbook
Sunday – Italian Serie A – Fiorentina vs. Genoa – 10/11 with 188Bet or 5/6 elsewhere

Under 2.5 Goals

Saturday – German Bundesliga – Darmstadt vs. Koln – 16/25 with Marathon or 3/5 with SportingBet

Accumulator

Three selections above – 5.85 with 188Bet or 5.70 with Marathon

Friday 20th January 2017

It’s all about Italy for the Goal-den Formula this weekend though we do also have a couple of wagers on these shores.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Saturday – Italian Serie A – Chievo vs. Fiorentina – 10/11 with bet365 or William Hill
Sunday – Italian Serie A – Pescara vs. Sassuolo – 4/6 with 32Red, Coral or 10Bet
Sunday – Italian Serie A – Atalanta vs. Sampdoria – 11/12 with 888Sport or 10/11 with 32Red

Accumulator

Three selections above – 6.18 with 888Sport or 32Red

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

Fun fact for you…

Manchester United haven’t won a league match at Stoke since Alex Ferguson was in charge.

Another fun fact for you…

Tottenham are really good and Manchester City’s defence has more leaks than the Titanic (probably not too soon is it?).

Saturday 15:00 – Premier League – ½ point – Stoke vs. Man Utd – Draw – 16/5 with bet365, Betfred or Betway

Saturday 17:30 – Premier League – ½ point – Tottenham to beat Manchester City – 11/4 with 32Red or 888Sport

Player Performance

In this section we’ll be targeting a very specific market – the Player Performance market on Sporting Index.

For those who are new to spread betting or to this market in particular, the rules are as follows…

• Each player has a spread, for example 53-58 and you either choose to sell the spread at the lower number (53 in this case) or buy it at the higher number (58 in this case).

• If you sell you want the player to score less than the number of points and if you buy you want them to score more. The points scoring is as follows:

Goal scored: 25 points
Goal assisted: 10 points
Shot on target: 5 points
Forcing a corner: 3 points
Free kick won: 3 points
Pass to player in opposition half: 2 points
Free kick conceded: -3 points
Yellow card: -10 points
Red card: -25 points

• You win or lose your stake multiplied by the amount you were right or wrong by, so if you buy at 58 and your player gets 78 points you win 20 times your stake. If you buy at 58 and they get 38 points you lose 20 times your stake.

The person who is providing these selections has been doing so for a significant period of time and has found that this particular market often offers excellent value which is something he is able to pinpoint due to the vast statistical database which he has at his disposal.

The biggest swing on any one selection tends to be around the 30 point mark (though please do be aware that you could win OR lose more than that) so I’m going to suggest placing these bets with a 0.05 point stake, so that’s 50p if you’re betting to £10 a point.

Anyway, here’s our selection:

Saturday 12:30 – Premier League – Liverpool vs. Swansea – Player Performance – 0.05 point – Sell Lallana at 76 – Sporting Index only

Liverpool play host to Swansea at Anfield to kick off the Premier League weekend in a match the Reds should be expected to win. However, the play might not be as clear-cut.

Swansea have enjoyed more possession this season than the majority of teams in the bottom-half of the Premier League table and Paul Clement’s appointment as manager may only assist their keep-ball philosophy; Clement’s Derby County side were top of the Championship possession table in the season he was in charge there, and the Swans limited Crystal Palace and Arsenal players to fewer passes than usual in his two games in charge so far.

On this basis, we should look to sell a Liverpool Player Performance and Adam Lallana looks the safest play @ 77 with Sporting Index. The in-form England midfielder only managed 74 points despite scoring in Liverpool’s recent home game with Stoke (a similar opponent to Swansea), doesn’t quite as make as many passes as fellow midfielders Wijnaldum, Henderson and Coutinho, and has been substituted in the majority of matches he has started this season.

Please note: If you don’t already have a Sporting Index account they have a fantastic welcome offer – simply sign up here and you’ll get £100 free credit with no deposit required. It’ll be removed from your account after a week but any overall profit you make with it you’ll be able to keep.

Friday 6th January 2017

Welcome to new Football Investor members and welcome back to the old timers – I hope you all had a wonderful festive period.

Selections were of course online only over Christmas but we will now revert to the standard bi-weekly emails on Tuesday, for midweek football, and Friday, for weekend football.

This weekend is FA Cup weekend so it’s a little quieter than usual but we do have some European Goal-den Formula bets and one Cup wager.

If you are a new member and have emailed in to ask a question about the service, sorry about the delay in getting back to you – I have a full inbox at the moment and am working through it as and when time allows.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Sunday – Italian Serie A – Pescara vs. Fiorentina – 3/4 with bet365 or 8/11 with Matchbook
Sunday – Spanish La Liga – Celta Vigo vs. Malaga – 3/4 with Unibet or 888Sport
Sunday – Spanish La Liga – Villarreal vs. Barcelona – 11/14 with Unibet or 888Sport

Accumulator

Three selections above – 5.36 with Unibet or 888Sport

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

It’s notoriously difficult to predict the FA Cup of course but one thing I can predict with relative certainty is that Southampton will field a heavily weakened team when they travel to Norwich tomorrow.

The Saints endured a difficult festive period which will have left them low on confidence and this weekend is an ideal time to rest the beleaguered troops before Wednesday night’s League Cup semi-final first leg against Liverpool. That should result in a team of kids coming up against a Norwich side who have just hammered in-form Derby County 3-0.

On top of that, Norwich manager Alex Neil is under a little bit of pressure, so he could well see this match as a perfect opportunity to beat a top flight team and claw back a little bit of goodwill from supporters.

Saturday 15:00 – FA Cup – Norwich to beat Southampton – ½ point – 5/2 with bet365

Wednesday 4th January 2017

Player Performance

In this section we’ll be targeting a very specific market – the Player Performance market on Sporting Index.

For those who are new to spread betting or to this market in particular, the rules are as follows…

• Each player has a spread, for example 53-58 and you either choose to sell the spread at the lower number (53 in this case) or buy it at the higher number (58 in this case).

• If you sell you want the player to score less than the number of points and if you buy you want them to score more. The points scoring is as follows:

Goal scored: 25 points
Goal assisted: 10 points
Shot on target: 5 points
Forcing a corner: 3 points
Free kick won: 3 points
Pass to player in opposition half: 2 points
Free kick conceded: -3 points
Yellow card: -10 points
Red card: -25 points

• You win or lose your stake multiplied by the amount you were right or wrong by, so if you buy at 58 and your player gets 78 points you win 20 times your stake. If you buy at 58 and they get 38 points you lose 20 times your stake.

The person who is providing these selections has been doing so for a significant period of time and has found that this particular market often offers excellent value which is something he is able to pinpoint due to the vast statistical database which he has at his disposal.

The biggest swing on any one selection tends to be around the 30 point mark (though please do be aware that you could win OR lose more than that) so I’m going to suggest placing these bets with a 0.05 point stake, so that’s 50p if you’re betting to £10 a point.

Anyway, here’s our selection:

Tonight 20:00 – Premier League – Tottenham vs. Chelsea – Player Performance – 0.05 point – Sell Kante at 45 – Sporting Index only

Tottenham host Chelsea tonight in the final match of the holiday fixture-list, and it could be the game of the season so far.

Spurs have been excellent of late and their recent comfortable wins over Southampton and Watford will mean they should come into the game fresh and able to impose their high press on the league-leaders from the off and throughout.

Consequently, a sell of Chelsea’s main man Eden Hazard’s Sporting Index’s Player Performance is potentially of interest, but the Belgian is back to his best and it would be a dangerous play, particularly as goals are likely. Instead, we shall play again on a player who has featured in this column a number of times this season, N’Golo Kante, who looks a sell again tonight @ 45.

The Spurs press has meant PP points for defensive midfielders against them have been thin on the ground this season, no-one in that position achieving more than 55 against them during the entire campaign, with many struggling for 30; Kante himself scored 29 in November’s match between the two sides at Stamford Bridge.

Tonight’s game is also likely to be an especially feisty affair given the animosity between the teams and Kante is one of the more likely to receive a card.

Please note: If you don’t already have a Sporting Index account they have a fantastic welcome offer – simply sign up here and you’ll get £100 free credit with no deposit required. It’ll be removed from your account after a week but any overall profit you make with it you’ll be able to keep.

Monday 2nd January 2017

There are no selections for the next set of fixtures.

We will revert to selections being sent out by email this Friday.

Thursday 29th December 2016

Our festive acca was one away which is a bit annoying but we’ve had a good 2016 and have a chance to end it on a winning note over the next few days.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Saturday – Premier League – Swansea vs. Bournemouth – 4/6 with 10Bet or 6/10 with William Hill
Saturday – Premier League – Liverpool vs. Manchester City – 5/9 with 10et or 8/15 elsewhere

Accumulator

The two selections above in an accumulator – 2.61 with 10Bet or 2.52 with Bwin

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

I think there are three over-priced selections over the next few days…

Friday 20:00 Everton to beat Hull – 1 point – 19/20 with Betfred, Coral and Betfair Sportsbook

Everton have been in good form lately, beating Arsenal and Leicester and going down to an injury time Liverpool goal in their last three. Hull are Hull.

Saturday 15:00 – Burnley to beat Sunderland – 1 point – 2/1 with Paddy Power

Burnley’s home record can match that of almost any other team in the league, winning six, drawing one and losing three (two of which were against Man City and Arsenal) and yet they’re constantly priced up at 2/1+ to beat the likes of Sunderland. We won backing Sean Dyche’s men to beat Palace earlier on this season and this looks like a similar contest.

Saturday 15:00 – Manchester United vs. Middlesbrough – Draw – 1/2 point – 5/1 with Betfred or Marathon

This has been priced up like it was Chelsea against Hull or something when in reality it’s 6th against 15th. Yes, you’d expect Manchester United to win but they’ve drawn four of their nine home matches so far and Boro have drawn the joint most matches of any team with six. Boro are strong at the back and United have had problems in front of goal. Odds of 5/1 for the draw are too big.

Sunday 25th December 2016

A very merry Christmas to you!

It doesn’t look like there are any serious bets for us over the next three days but I do like a festive acca and this set of fixtures lends itself well to such a thing.

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

I’m siding with:

Chelsea to beat Bournemouth

Chelsea’s winning run will end sooner or later but I’d be very surprised if it was at home to Bournemouth.

Man City to beat Hull

I’ve maybe been a little mean to Hull City this season but they’re really not very good.

Liverpool to beat Stoke

Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season, winning all bar slightly unfortunate draws with Man United and West Ham.

Newcastle to beat Sheffield Wednesday

Newcastle have had a couple of minor blips this season but they’ve won their last three and are comfortably the best team in the Championship.

Huddersfield to beat Nottingham Forest

Huddersfield have won three on the bounce after a blip of their own and host an out of form Nottingham Forest side.

Brighton to beat QPR

QPR are slipping perilously close to the relegation zone and face a really tough trip a Brighton side just a point off Newcastle and eight clear of the chasing pack.

Place by 15:00 tomorrow – the six selections above – 1/2 point accumulator – 11.91 with Marathon or 11.54 with Coral

Wednesday 21st December 2016

There are European league games this midweek – who knew?!

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Thursday – Italian Serie A – Fiorentina vs. Napoli – 8/13 with 10Bet or 4/7 elsewhere

Festive Period

Selections over the festive period will be posted by the following times:

December 26th to 28th – Posted by 4pm Christmas Day

December 30th to January 1st – Posted by 8pm December 29th

January 2nd to January 4th – Posted by 10pm January 1st (the hangover should have dissipated by then!!)

Email

Category : Selection Archive

Comments (7)

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  1. Sunil Arora says:

    Hi Matt,

    There was no email from Football Investor this week?

  2. Sunil Arora says:

    guess I lost it in the Cheltenham haze!

  3. Steven Davies says:

    Like the look of this international acca – bring on the profit : )

  4. Robert Torr says:

    Hi Matt, I assume you meant 3 selections for the acca, not 2? Cheers!

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Selection Archive