The Football Investor

The Weekly Updates: 2016/17 (Part Two)

| December 21, 2016 | Reply

Friday 6th January 2016

Welcome to new Football Investor members and welcome back to the old timers – I hope you all had a wonderful festive period.

Selections were of course online only over Christmas but we will now revert to the standard bi-weekly emails on Tuesday, for midweek football, and Friday, for weekend football.

This weekend is FA Cup weekend so it’s a little quieter than usual but we do have some European Goal-den Formula bets and one Cup wager.

If you are a new member and have emailed in to ask a question about the service, sorry about the delay in getting back to you – I have a full inbox at the moment and am working through it as and when time allows.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Sunday – Italian Serie A – Pescara vs. Fiorentina – 3/4 with bet365 or 8/11 with Matchbook
Sunday – Spanish La Liga – Celta Vigo vs. Malaga – 3/4 with Unibet or 888Sport
Sunday – Spanish La Liga – Villarreal vs. Barcelona – 11/14 with Unibet or 888Sport

Accumulator

Three selections above – 5.36 with Unibet or 888Sport

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

It’s notoriously difficult to predict the FA Cup of course but one thing I can predict with relative certainty is that Southampton will field a heavily weakened team when they travel to Norwich tomorrow.

The Saints endured a difficult festive period which will have left them low on confidence and this weekend is an ideal time to rest the beleaguered troops before Wednesday night’s League Cup semi-final first leg against Liverpool. That should result in a team of kids coming up against a Norwich side who have just hammered in-form Derby County 3-0.

On top of that, Norwich manager Alex Neil is under a little bit of pressure, so he could well see this match as a perfect opportunity to beat a top flight team and claw back a little bit of goodwill from supporters.

Saturday 15:00 – FA Cup – Norwich to beat Southampton – ½ point – 5/2 with bet365

Wednesday 4th January 2017

Player Performance

In this section we’ll be targeting a very specific market – the Player Performance market on Sporting Index.

For those who are new to spread betting or to this market in particular, the rules are as follows…

• Each player has a spread, for example 53-58 and you either choose to sell the spread at the lower number (53 in this case) or buy it at the higher number (58 in this case).

• If you sell you want the player to score less than the number of points and if you buy you want them to score more. The points scoring is as follows:

Goal scored: 25 points
Goal assisted: 10 points
Shot on target: 5 points
Forcing a corner: 3 points
Free kick won: 3 points
Pass to player in opposition half: 2 points
Free kick conceded: -3 points
Yellow card: -10 points
Red card: -25 points

• You win or lose your stake multiplied by the amount you were right or wrong by, so if you buy at 58 and your player gets 78 points you win 20 times your stake. If you buy at 58 and they get 38 points you lose 20 times your stake.

The person who is providing these selections has been doing so for a significant period of time and has found that this particular market often offers excellent value which is something he is able to pinpoint due to the vast statistical database which he has at his disposal.

The biggest swing on any one selection tends to be around the 30 point mark (though please do be aware that you could win OR lose more than that) so I’m going to suggest placing these bets with a 0.05 point stake, so that’s 50p if you’re betting to £10 a point.

Anyway, here’s our selection:

Tonight 20:00 – Premier League – Tottenham vs. Chelsea – Player Performance – 0.05 point – Sell Kante at 45 – Sporting Index only

Tottenham host Chelsea tonight in the final match of the holiday fixture-list, and it could be the game of the season so far.

Spurs have been excellent of late and their recent comfortable wins over Southampton and Watford will mean they should come into the game fresh and able to impose their high press on the league-leaders from the off and throughout.

Consequently, a sell of Chelsea’s main man Eden Hazard’s Sporting Index’s Player Performance is potentially of interest, but the Belgian is back to his best and it would be a dangerous play, particularly as goals are likely. Instead, we shall play again on a player who has featured in this column a number of times this season, N’Golo Kante, who looks a sell again tonight @ 45.

The Spurs press has meant PP points for defensive midfielders against them have been thin on the ground this season, no-one in that position achieving more than 55 against them during the entire campaign, with many struggling for 30; Kante himself scored 29 in November’s match between the two sides at Stamford Bridge.

Tonight’s game is also likely to be an especially feisty affair given the animosity between the teams and Kante is one of the more likely to receive a card.

Please note: If you don’t already have a Sporting Index account they have a fantastic welcome offer – simply sign up here and you’ll get £100 free credit with no deposit required. It’ll be removed from your account after a week but any overall profit you make with it you’ll be able to keep.

Monday 2nd January 2017

There are no selections for the next set of fixtures.

We will revert to selections being sent out by email this Friday.

Thursday 29th December 2016

Our festive acca was one away which is a bit annoying but we’ve had a good 2016 and have a chance to end it on a winning note over the next few days.

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Saturday – Premier League – Swansea vs. Bournemouth – 4/6 with 10Bet or 6/10 with William Hill
Saturday – Premier League – Liverpool vs. Manchester City – 5/9 with 10et or 8/15 elsewhere

Accumulator

The two selections above in an accumulator – 2.61 with 10Bet or 2.52 with Bwin

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

I think there are three over-priced selections over the next few days…

Friday 20:00 Everton to beat Hull – 1 point – 19/20 with Betfred, Coral and Betfair Sportsbook

Everton have been in good form lately, beating Arsenal and Leicester and going down to an injury time Liverpool goal in their last three. Hull are Hull.

Saturday 15:00 – Burnley to beat Sunderland – 1 point – 2/1 with Paddy Power

Burnley’s home record can match that of almost any other team in the league, winning six, drawing one and losing three (two of which were against Man City and Arsenal) and yet they’re constantly priced up at 2/1+ to beat the likes of Sunderland. We won backing Sean Dyche’s men to beat Palace earlier on this season and this looks like a similar contest.

Saturday 15:00 – Manchester United vs. Middlesbrough – Draw – 1/2 point – 5/1 with Betfred or Marathon

This has been priced up like it was Chelsea against Hull or something when in reality it’s 6th against 15th. Yes, you’d expect Manchester United to win but they’ve drawn four of their nine home matches so far and Boro have drawn the joint most matches of any team with six. Boro are strong at the back and United have had problems in front of goal. Odds of 5/1 for the draw are too big.

Sunday 25th December 2016

A very merry Christmas to you!

It doesn’t look like there are any serious bets for us over the next three days but I do like a festive acca and this set of fixtures lends itself well to such a thing.

Matt’s Eye-Catchers

I’m siding with:

Chelsea to beat Bournemouth

Chelsea’s winning run will end sooner or later but I’d be very surprised if it was at home to Bournemouth.

Man City to beat Hull

I’ve maybe been a little mean to Hull City this season but they’re really not very good.

Liverpool to beat Stoke

Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season, winning all bar slightly unfortunate draws with Man United and West Ham.

Newcastle to beat Sheffield Wednesday

Newcastle have had a couple of minor blips this season but they’ve won their last three and are comfortably the best team in the Championship.

Huddersfield to beat Nottingham Forest

Huddersfield have won three on the bounce after a blip of their own and host an out of form Nottingham Forest side.

Brighton to beat QPR

QPR are slipping perilously close to the relegation zone and face a really tough trip a Brighton side just a point off Newcastle and eight clear of the chasing pack.

Place by 15:00 tomorrow – the six selections above – 1/2 point accumulator – 11.91 with Marathon or 11.54 with Coral

Wednesday 21st December 2016

There are European league games this midweek – who knew?!

Goal-den Formula

All bets are 1 point unless otherwise stated

Both Teams to Score

Thursday – Italian Serie A – Fiorentina vs. Napoli – 8/13 with 10Bet or 4/7 elsewhere

Festive Period

Selections over the festive period will be posted by the following times:

December 26th to 28th – Posted by 4pm Christmas Day

December 30th to January 1st – Posted by 8pm December 29th

January 2nd to January 4th – Posted by 10pm January 1st (the hangover should have dissipated by then!!)

Email

Category : Selection Archive

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