Trigger Lay Bets

| August 22, 2011 | 28 Replies

This potential lay service from Richard focuses on laying horses at odds of 4.0 based on a special set of criteria. These lays will predominently be triggered ‘in-running’.

We’ll test this with a 100 point bank and 5% liability staking. If non-runners result in a field of less than eight horses, the bet will be void.

Tuesday 23rd August 2011

LEICESTER 3.00 SONG OF PARKES – Matched in running. Finished 6th. (+1.58)
LEICESTER 4.00 AMISTRESS – Matched at 4.0 before the off. Finished 4th. (+1.58)
WARWICK 5.20 DARK LANE – Not matched. Finished 4th.

Bank: 103.16

Wednesday 24th August

CATTERICK 3.20 MASON HINDMARSH – Not matched. Finished 4th.

Bank: 103.16

Thursday 25th August

LINGFIELD 2.30 CUCKNEY BEAR – Matched in running. Finished 7th. (+1.58)

Bank: 104.74

Friday 26th August

NEWMARKET 3.30 KAZBOW – Non runner.
FFOS LAS 3.40 ZERO MONEY – Non runner.
NEWCASTLE 6.25 LUCKY WINDMILL – Not matched. Finished 7th.

Bank: 104.74

Wednesday 31st August

BATH 4.00 ONLY YOU MAGGIE – Seven runners. Bet void.
BATH 4.30 TILL DAWN – Not matched. Finished 3rd.
BATH 5.00 PIDDIES POWER – Matched in running. Finished 4th (+1.58)

Bank: 106.32

Thursday 1st September

KEMPTON 7.40 TWICE BITTEN – Not matched. Finished 5th.

Bank: 106.32

Friday 2nd September

HAYDOCK 3.10 INVINCIBLE FORCE – Matched in running. Finished 5th. (+1.58)
HAYDOCK 3.40 DESERT STRIKE – Not matched. Finished 10th.
HAYDOCK 4.40 DR. LIVINGSTONE – Not matched. Finished 8th.
HAYDOCK 5.10 FIRST POET – Not matched. Finished 13th.
KEMPTON 6.20 RED SOMERSET – Not matched. Finished 9th.

Bank: 107.90

Monday 5th September

BATH 3.10 SERMONS MOUNT – Matched in running. Finished 9th. (+1.58)
NEWCASTLE 3.20 BROCTUNE PAPA GIO – Matched at 4.0 before the off. Finished 9th. (+1.58)
NEWCASTLE 4.20 JOAN D’ARC – Matched in running. Finished 10th. (+1.58)
NEWCASTLE 4.50 LA BACOUTEUSE – Non runner.

Bank: 112.64

Tuesday 6th September

LEICESTER 3.30 BOLANDERI – Not matched. Finished 14th.
LEICESTER 5.30 MINSKY MINE – Seven runners. Bet void.

Bank: 112.64

Wednesday 7th Spetember

DONCASTER 2.00 SEE CLEARLY
DONCASTER 5.20 HAAJES
KEMPTON 6.20 FIRST REBELLION

Bank:

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Category: Betting Tips

Comments (28)

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  1. Richard says:

    An overview of what i am trying to achieve:-

    In my opinion this is the sharp end of making lay selections.

    Normally you would expect to select a lay based on all the information available and as long as the odds available were not too high you then back it to lose.

    Unfortunately with exchange prices on average 20% above the s.p. on the course we are already at a disadvantage when a selection wins its race.

    In order to not only remove the disadvantage but create an advantage we need to reduce our liability and this can be done by matching bets “in-running”

    In practice i need to select horses that have good recent form and will hopefully run to that form but not win.

    Therefore selections dont just need to lose but need to run well enough to create a low enough price in running to match at 4.0 and give us our return.

    4.0 (3/1) as a match means that we need an 80% strike rate to create a profit allowing for exchange commission.

    Occasionally we will get a match at lower than 4.0 before the race starts which will also help our cause.

    Not all of the selections will be matched but i’m sure you would agree that if you lay a horse that starts at 10/1 s.p. at 3/1 and it then loses it not only feels good but makes it a viable bet, after all you wouldn’t want a liability of 12 times your stake when we lose, 3 times is much more acceptable both practically and physchologically.

    Please feel free to ask questions and give opinions or advice, i could do with all the help i can get.

    Thankyou

    Richard

  2. DavidOakleyBrown says:

    So whats the criteria for the selections?

    The system makes sense in principle.

  3. Keith bate says:

    Hi matt,
    I presume that Peter’s picks has now finished ?
    What was the final result ??
    any news when Nigil’s nags will go live ?
    cheers,
    keith (gave feedback and made a profit on NN !)

  4. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Keith,

    It’s still going, I’ve just not had a chance to get the tips up the last couple of days:

    http://www.bettingrant.co.uk/peters-picks-1357

    It seems to be struggling around the break even mark at the minute but I’ll give it a few more weeks.

    I should be having a meeting with Nigel and a publisher next week so there will be more news after that.

    Regards,
    Matt

  5. Richard says:

    Hi David.

    Using the Racing Post website go through the day’s races in time order.

    Firstly i ignore jumps races, too much can go wrong.

    Next i ignore maiden races.

    Next i look for any race with at least 8 runners that has a weight differential through the card, mostly handicaps.

    Then in a race that satisfies the above click on the first horse in the field and begin analysis as follows:-

    1. H/C rating today compared to its last race.

    2. Distance today compared to its last race.

    3. Grade today compared to its last race.

    What i am looking for is:-

    A higher handicap value, but be careful to establish this is for today’s surface turf/a.w. look for at least 2lb. the more the better.
    Also be aware of any apprentice allowance, alot of them are good value for their claim.

    Either longer distance or higher grade than last time out or preferably both.

    If the horse still looks viable as a lay selection i look through the racing history and see if there is information to the contrary i.e. has it won 3 of its last 6 races, does it look progressive despite rising in handicap weight. Basically i get a feel for why the horse performed as it did in previous races.

    If i am still sure that the evidence is strong enough to lay i now look at the rest of the field as i need something to beat it.

    Go through the rest of the field one at a time until you either find a selection or discount the race.

    I do tend to get a gut feeling when i think i’ve made the right choice. If in doubt leave it alone.

    If a selection is 4.0 or lower when i first look at the market i lay it straight away, but if not set to 4.0 and take the at in-play keep option.

    Regards Richard

  6. Keith bate says:

    Hi Matt
    Am following the Nigel’s Nags second trial but was unable to load the selection yesterday (no problem today !).
    How did the selection (s) get on ?

  7. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Keith,

    Very odd. A few people have had similar problems but they are just standard Word files, so I’m not sure what’s going on!

    You did well to avoid it actually as it finished 2nd. Should have won but was slow out of the stalls.

    Matt

  8. Keith bate says:

    Hi matt,
    Thanks for that. NN is going through his first really poor patch and is about 15 points down with no winners. Has the “bubble burst” I doubt it but we will see.
    Trigger lays has not yet had a loser but have the selections finished ? this is potentially very lucrative
    cheers,
    keith

  9. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Keith,

    It was overdue a poor patch so I’m not overly surprised. Two of the three came 2nd too, so they weren’t far out.

    Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to Trigger Lay Bets. I’ve not heard from Richard at all this week. Perhaps he’s on holiday??

    Matt

  10. Richard says:

    Hi Matt and all,
    apologies for the lack of posting, but personal issues have recently left me with little spare time and as you can appreciate making selections in a hurry is never a good idea.
    I have however had thinking time and i intend to make a few small changes to a few aspects in order to make things a little easier.
    If it’s ok by you Matt i would like to post selections on here the night before they run.
    I am also planning to tweak a few things so i can iron out a few problems that have become apparent since i started to play with real money.
    Today being sunday i do have time to make selections and post them today assuming there are any available.

    Regards Richard

  11. Richard says:

    Hi all.
    The first thing i intend to do is to raise the bar where the odds are concerned to 4.50. The reason for this is that when i set the odds to match at 4.0 and select the at in-play keep option a withdrawal from the race reduces the odds meaning unless i am at the screen to put them back up again i am then asking for a match below what i want.
    As each lay is set at a fixed liability it will mean a loser will not cost any more but a winning lay will potentially return slightly less profit.
    I do think however that this will be offset by the fact that over time more lays will be matched.
    The next problem i see is that when withdrawals have left me with less than 8 runners once again unless i am at the screen i cannot cancel the bet, however having monitored the effect of this i feel that if i set my bets and walk away most of the time they lose anyway and of course the liability is reduced by the betfair reduction factor.
    Selections for today to follow shortly

    Regard Richard

  12. Richard says:

    Hi all,

    selections for today as follows:-

    HAMILTON 4.10 BRAVE BATTLE

    HAMILTON 5.10 CALEDONIA PRINCE

    Remember i am now laying at or below 4.50 using 5% of my bank as liability.
    Due to the fact that if bets do not match but still lose i get no return i am also using a separate bank to lay my selections at the odds available when i log on to betfair and using the same 5% liability.
    I intend to re-calculate the 5% figure at the start of each day and results will reflect this.
    Profit/loss figures will be in pounds and pence as opposed to points.

    I am going to start with £100 in each bank which means that at £5 liability some of the returns will only be pennies but profit is profit.

    Regards Richard

  13. Richard says:

    Hi all, hope you had a nice and profitable weekend

    Results for today:-

    HAMILTON 4.10 BRAVE BATTLE laid @ 13.5 not matched at 4.5 profit .38

    HAMILTON 5.10 CALEDONIA PRINCE laid @ 11.0 not matched at 4.5 profit .47

    Tomorrow’s selections:-

    LEICESTER 3.50 SECRET MILLIONAIRE

    KEMPTON 4.00 MANOORI

    HAMILTON 4.10 BRIGHT APPLAUSE

    KEMPTON 5.00 RED SOMERSET

    BANK 1 £100.00 LIABILITY £5.00 (4.5 odds)

    BANK 2 £100.85 LIABILITY £5.04 (available odds)

    The gains at this level may seem small beer but trust me i have been here before. When Adrian Massey was still posting his computer generated ratings i developed a lay system that grew a £30 bank to £900 using his information, and it only took 4 months. Unfortunately he closed his site so it didn’t continue. I am assuming that if you wanted to run alongside me with this and have a small bank to use that you will already know how to use betfair to place bets as small as one penny. If however you have not come accross this yet i will be only too pleased to help you get going please feel free to ask anything you need to know.

    Regards Richard

  14. Richard says:

    Sorry, getting sloppy with my recording. Should just say that BRAVE BATTLE finished 7th of 9 and CALEDONIA PRINCE finished last of 7

    GOOD LUCK

    Richard

  15. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Richard,

    I’m probably missing something obvious here but if the two bets above weren’t matched, how did you make a profit?

    Matt

  16. Richard says:

    Hi Matt,

    The profit comes from the separate bank that i spoke about above.

    At the same time as using my selections to lay at 4.5 within the system i am running a separate bank which is solely using the selections as straight lay bets.

    My main aim is to prove the system but i also want to have a comparison to a normal select and lay scenario and i also do not mind if it makes a small profit.

    Hope this clarifies things.

    Regards Richard

  17. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Ah yes, course.

  18. Richard says:

    Hi Matt,

    Did the results from yesterday and today’s selections not come through to you?

  19. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    No, did you post them on the site or email them?

    We changed the server of the website yesterday, so they might have got lost amongst all that if you posted them as a comment.

  20. Richard says:

    Hi Matt,

    Yesterday’s results as follows:-

    FOLKESTONE 2.20 STAN’S DEELYTE laid at 25.0 not matched at 4.5 finished 6th profit .20

    BEVERLEY 4.30 LADY SLEDMERE laid at 5.40 not matched at 4.5 finished 8th profit 1.09

    Bank 1 £100.00 new liability £5.00(4.5 odds)

    Bank 2 £102.92 new liability £5.14 (available odds)

    Selections for today as follows:-

    GOODWOOD 3.10 INTERAKT

    GOODWOOD 4.55 YES CHEF

    KEMPTON 8.20 POLAR ANNIE

    KEMPTON 8.50 SCARBOROUGH LILY

    Regards Richard

  21. Richard says:

    One more selection today:-

    KEMPTON 7.50 TEGAN

  22. Richard says:

    Hi everone,

    Results for today:-

    GOODWOOD 3.10 INTERAKT matched in running + £1.36
    Laid at 11.44 finished 4th +.46

    GOODWOOD 4.55 YES CHEF not matched at 4.5
    Laid at 17.53 finished 7th +.26

    KEMPTON 7.50 TEGAN not matched at 4.5
    Laid at 9.2 finished 10th +.59

    KEMPTON 8.20 POLAR ANNIE non runner

    KEMPTON 8.50 SCARBOROUGH LILY non runner

    Bank1 £101.36(4.5 odds) new liability £5.07

    Bank2 £104.23(available odds) new liability £5.21

    Tomorrows selections:-

    NEWMARKET 2.45 GHOSTWRITING

    NEWMARKET 5.05 DREAMACHA

    NEWMARKET 5.40 POLISH WORLD

    WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 BILLYRAYVALENTINE

    WOLVERHAMPTON 9.00 SHOUDA

    Regards Richard

  23. Richard says:

    Hi all,

    Results today:-

    NEWMARKET 2.45 GHOSTWRITING matched at 4.5 +1.36
    Laid at 5.4 finished 8th + 1.12

    NEWMARKET 5.05 DREAMACHA non runner

    NEWMARKET 5.40 POLISH WORLD not matched at 4.5
    Laid at 8.4 finished 10th +.67

    WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 BILLYRAYVALENTINE non runner

    WOLVERHAMPTON 9.00 SHOUDA WON – £5.07
    laid at 3.25 – £5.21

    Bank 1 £97.65 new liability £4.88(4.5 odds)

    Bank 2 £100.81 new liability £5.04(available odds)

    Will post tomorrow’s selections in the morning.

    Regards Richard

  24. Richard says:

    Good morning,

    Selections today:-

    NEWMARKET 1.50 SETA (available now at 4.0)

    HAYDOCK 2.05 CAPTAIN BERTIE

    HAYDOCK 3.45 LARWOOD

    HAYDOCK 4.20 MAN OF GOD

    NEWMARKET 4.45 LICENCE TO TILL

    HAYDOCK 4.55 AVISO

    Will post Wolverhampton later

    Regards Richard

  25. Richard says:

    Selections for tonight:-

    WOLVERHAMPTON

    5.15 GREEK SECRET

    6.15 RYTON RUNNER

    7.45 MONASHEE ROCK

    8.15 FAIRY MIST

    8.45 FLUVIAL

    Regards Richard

  26. Jax Heath says:

    Hi Matt and Richard,
    I’ve been looking at this thread for a while now because, as a newbie, it is quite easy for me to understand; and I’ve had some great tips from it.
    Two things: Is Richard going to continue to post here and if not where else can I get his tips? I think his way of sorting out the horses into almost winners is very clever.
    Could someone tel me how to bet on Betfair for pennies? I’m still using their advertised minimum of £2.00.
    Thanks
    Jax

  27. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Jax,

    Richard appears to have temporarilly vanished again but I’m sure he’ll be back on here soon enough.

    In the meantime, here’s a video that succinctly explains how to get around the Betfair minimum bet:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nk_J8ry2iKw

    Regards,

    Matt

  28. dan says:

    I have been following this Guy on Twitter Betfairplayer2, He embarrasses the so called professionals, In 50 years I have not seen the likes of him before, the other day he gave a 2/5 lay, I’m not hyping him up He does that all on his own

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