Take The Risk Out Of Our Green Bay Bet

| January 13, 2011 | 4 Replies




No, I’ve not gone mad (not yet anyway) but there was only one word I found myself shouting on Sunday night…


You see, Green Bay (our pick to win gridiron’s NFC Conference) were busy touchdowning (yes, I know it’s not a word) their way to victory over the Philadelphia Eagles 21- 16.

The win continued a revival in fortunes for Green Bay, who had looked down and out after a difficult mid-season.

Fortunately, they are now very much up and in the fight for the NFC, with just two matches standing between them and the Conference title.

This all means that the bet that we placed pre-season is now looking pretty rosy, with the initial 11/2 now as short as 2/1 in places.

As a result, we now have numerous options…

We can back another team as a ‘saver’ bet…

We can lay Green Bay to guarantee a small profit…

We can lay Green Bay and weight the profit one way or the other…

Or, we can let the bet run.

Ultimately, the choice is yours but my money is on option three.

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How to engineer a no-lose scenario

The way I see it, Green Bay are in with a very decent chance of winning the NFC.

Sure, they had a wobble but that wobble now appears to be behind them, with the Packers winning their last three on the bounce.

All three were against decent opposition and the most recent was away from home.

As a result, they’ve built up a nice head of steam while opponents Atlanta may have lost some momentum after taking last weekend off.

Because of this I want to weight our profit towards Green Bay but I also want to ensure that we don’t lose any cash if Atlanta win…

After all, they are the bookies’ favourites.

So, to engineer a no-lose scenario all you need to do is this…

Lay Green Bay to win the NFC with the same stake as you backed them with.

It’s as simple as that.

If you backed Green Bay with £10, lay them with £10 (note: this is the stake, NOT the liability)…

If you backed them with £25, lay them with £25.

As a consequence, if Green Bay lose to Atlanta, or in the Conference final itself, you get your stake back courtesy of the lay bet…

But, if Green Bay go on to win the conference you still make a profit at odds roughly equating to 3/1.

This means that if you initially backed them for £50, you can eliminate the risk and still maintain a chance of a £150 profit!

Patience is a virtue

Now, the match doesn’t start until Sunday morning at 1am (GMT) but I thought I’d give you plenty of time to get your lay bets on as their isn’t currently a huge amount of liquidity in the Betfair market.

The price that we want to be laying at is 3.6 or lower and while that is the price that Green Bay are currently trading at, it might take a little bit of time to get your bets on.

If you can’t get your stake matched initially, I would advise you to set the odds and leave your stake as unmatched – the vast majority of them should be matched by the time the Atlanta game kicks off.

You may also want to try a different exchange such as Betdaq, although the current price on there is some way above our 3.6 target.

Whatever you decide (and remember, you don’t have to play the bet in this manner) good luck!

I will be laying Green Bay with the same stake as I initially backed them at.

To do this, head over to Betfair or Betdaq and lay Green Bay to win the NFC Conference at 3.6 or lower.

This will guarantee no loss and will also give us reason to celebrate should the Packers make it four on the bounce in the early hours of Sunday morning.


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Category: Betting Tips

Comments (4)

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  1. nick lund says:

    Back from the dead. the Packers look a shoo in but I’m
    still insuring

  2. Tim says:

    Nice one, packers win the conference and make the superbowl. Well done!

  3. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Nice to see another tip come in on Sunday night. Must admit I was getting a bit nervy when they conceded a couple of touchdowns towards the end but they held on well.

  4. Richard says:

    Well done Matt, good return from your tip. I had GB Packers at 6.5 e/w and laid them with Betfair ages ago with a ‘keep’ of 1.95 to cover potential loss.
    Also had Paul Foster at 5.0 e/w. Only small stakes but it’s nice to see the bookies pushing the money towards me for a change!
    Keep up the good work.

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