The Syndicate

Selections 2017/18 (Part Two)

| August 9, 2017 | 98 Replies

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Category : SYD Summer Selections

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  1. Kieran Hagan says:

    That was more like it! And so so close to an amazing treble. Hopefully that has taken the pressure of a little and made the holiday more relaxing.

  2. Kieran Hagan says:

    Blimey mate, that holiday did you the world of good. A lovely profit today. Excellent stuff.

  3. Laurence Pocock says:

    good day yesterday.

  4. Miles Tredwell says:

    Cheers guys. Ticking along. Be nice to get a couple at bigger prices to go in at some point, but largely happy with how those in single figures have been running.

  5. Kieran Hagan says:

    Well you were waiting for a big one, and it came along with bells on. Superb! Have a great weekend.

  6. Nigel Ball says:

    Fantastic tip on mattmu…
    Impressive well done miles.

  7. Kieran Hagan says:

    Just picked up phone at 10pm to turn it off (don’t tend to keep it with me on Sunday) and saw the bet. Price now 16/1. Didn’t realise bets were ever sent out on Sunday night! Still, if it wins, I will forgive you!

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi Kieran, It’s the first in a while on a Sunday but that’s really what the text addition is for. There are a couple of large field sprints today which is very unusual for a Monday so needed to start early and it’s the sort of the race the big guns target and wanted to get in first. Continued to shorten, so we’re on the right side of the value. Looking forward to watching that tonight, should be a great race.

  8. Laurence Pocock says:

    Hi Miles,
    Some great tips lately. The trouble is as I have said before is that I need to reset my password so I get on with my mobile and despite contacting your support team they have not sent me the link to do this- can you wake them up?

  9. Robert Bille says:

    Nice little 25-1 shot with Mattmu going in on Saturday, Miles; even better when I realised that I’d originally placed the bet with Bet365 before getting better odds with SkyBet and forgetting to cash out (which was my intention)… Double bubble!!

  10. William Chappell says:

    Miles – you mention a ‘Reverse Forecast’ on Bet365’s platform. What is it, as I can’t find any mention of it in the FAQs.

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi William. A straight forecast is when you pick one horse to be first and another to be second in that order. A reverse forecast is two straight forecast bets with one being horse A to come first, horse B to come second and the other bet horse B to come first and horse A to come second. On Bet365, go to the race page where you’d normally make a selection and scroll down. You should find the boxes towards the bottom of page, click first and second choices, click add to bet slip and they’ll be up in the top right of the page ready to be bet.

  11. Alan Haley says:

    Matt
    I need a password reminder, I have tried the reset option but have had no reply, About to purchase a new PC so a reminder will suffice.
    Many thanks
    Alan Haley

  12. Robert Bille says:

    Miles, completely from left field… if you were having a flutter today; Lady Aurelia or Battaash?

    Rob

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Jim Crowley was on ITV yesterday saying if it was quick it’d favour LA and soft favour Battash but it looks to be good going. Not one I’ll be betting on but will watch with interest.

  13. Duncan Campbell says:

    Quick query on Red Tea at Yarmouth 16.40. You quote odds of 7 but most bookies are showing 11. Is this meant to be a straight bet?

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Good news! I’ve looked at the wrong line of figures when typing up. Yes, with 7 runners it’s win only but that’s even better value. Thanks for pointing it out- I’ll add a note now.

  14. Robert Bille says:

    Oh my god, just watched the race featuring Dandyleekie and can’t believe how bad a ride Nolan gave him; he actually looked like he could at least challenge for a place until he was diverted into traffic… Poor, poor horsemanship!!

  15. Kieran Hagan says:

    Top of the Bank in free fall. As low as 10/3 with Hills!

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Yeah he seemed to be very well backed last night and then Hugh Taylor at Attheraces put him up this morning causing further shortening. Positive signs, let’s hope he pulls it off.

  16. Malcolm Mcmaster says:

    Sat at Thirsk races enjoying a drink today. I forgot all about red alert….& backed gnaad ☺️

  17. Kieran Hagan says:

    Well, what a truly awful day. Between the 2 services, 13 selections and no winners! Just the 1 shortish priced EW return. This game certainly doesn’t let you get carried away with previous good results. I joined the Racing Club at a bad time. That said, it was the same with The Syndicate and it has to be said, that has turned around good style (apart from today obviously!).

  18. Miles Tredwell says:

    Morning Kieran,
    Before reading your comment, I’d described Saturday to a friend in similar terms so it’d be hypocritical to argue with that summary.

    That said, Racing Code had a strong August and Syndicate has been steady. Both normally have that number of 6 or 7 not winning in a row most weeks, occasionally more, then back-to-back winners or runs of returns- Racing Code began August with 14 not winning then hitting 5 out of 6 and similar happened again later in the month, for example- but it wasn’t pleasant that happening to both on the same day.

    It’s forever a process of gaining some, handing some back, gaining some, handing some back, and as long as the gains exceed the losses then the long-term sees a positive, which is generally what happens here.

    One final point I think I should make is that it’s the long-term that comes first and the next selections will continue to be with that in mind rather than attempting to instantly bounce back after a losing day.

  19. Kieran Hagan says:

    Miles, I totally understand the long term and the bigger picture and hope to be around to benefit over the coming years. Please don’t take anything I said as a me complaining about you, I am someone who will comment on a regular basis, especially on particularly good or bad days, but any criticisms I make, will always be constructive. Onwards and upwards. Kieran

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi again Kieran, Sure- that was very much the way I interpreted your comment and was fully aware that on a good day you’ve commented as such and that on a bad day (especially the worst of the year, possibly ever?) it would be a surprise to call it anything else, so no worries at all.
      If I sound defensive here it’s only that others I’m sure will have felt the same about Saturday and read these comments, so providing a bit of wider context is probably the right thing to do from time to time.

  20. Robert Bille says:

    Good day at Kempton, Miles… Nice one!!! Even better as I put on a cheeky 0.25 each way double that produced a whopping 10.3 point return!! More than made up for Saturday’s disappointing day.

    Rob

  21. Robert Bille says:

    Morning Miles, I was wondering whether I could pick your brains? Nothing obviously jumped out at you in the 3.50 at Salisbury otherwise you’d have tipped it; I do, however, have a £10 risk free bet with Bet365 and was wondering whether there was anything you’d fancy? No pressure, totally risk free and I won’t hold it against you! 🙂

    Rob

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Morning Rob. The Racing Code has one for that one on a Dean Ivory sprinters angle- Eirene. Won Listed sprint LTO (5f), time before 2nd @ 6f (13 lengths clear of 3rd) behind subsequent Group 2 winner.

  22. Laurence Pocock says:

    hoping you have some good tips tomorrow Miles. Its my birthday!

  23. Kieran Hagan says:

    12:30 bloody hell, kick for City v Liverpool. Nightmare!!

  24. Kieran Hagan says:

    Managed to get the bets on without missing too much of the action and then settle down to a marvelous victory! Be good to avoid that stress in the future though!

  25. Kieran Hagan says:

    Another bet that is more than a point that has no return. In my relatively short time (2.5 months) with the service, I have a feeling that there have been no winners where the stake has been more than 1 point and also, a higher percentage of winners where the stake is less than a point. I haven’t actually done the stats on that but I would imagine you have ?

  26. Robert Bille says:

    Thank you Miles. A cracking day today… 5.5 points staked and returned 25.2 points including a nice little 0.4 point double on Desert Skyline and Amazour which resulted in a 7.7 point return. Keep up the good work!!!!!!!!

  27. Kieran Hagan says:

    Yep, I echo that, a belter of a day!

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Cheers Kieran. Regarding the higher stakes… you’re right. This season there have been 11 run at 1.25 or 1.5 points (another 4 have been non-runners) with 4 giving place returns. Just a small sample quirk. The Racing Code, meanwhile, has had 8 with a 1.25 or 1.5 stake giving a 12/1 and a 14/1 winners and 1 other giving place returns.

      • Laurence Pocock says:

        This is a important discussion.Is there an argument to just place win bets only.

        • Miles Tredwell says:

          Hi Laurence,
          Yes there is and there’s also one against. I looked at this a while ago for the first 18 months of The Synd (Feb 15 to Oct 16) and it did show that backing everything win only would have increased profits (if, for example backing 0.75pts win rather than 0.375pts e/w had been used).
          But backing e/w does have a flattening effect, reducing profits but also reducing any downturns. If that allows a slightly smaller bank of points to be used then the outcome is similar. I’d also throw in the psychological side- I think many find it easier to live with a series of near misses that have made a small e/w profit than the same bets that would have made a loss if backed to win only even though on other occasions the profits would be higher.
          Looking at this season, 189 selections have been to win only, giving 48 winners, and 228 each-way. The each-way bets have given 27 winners and a further 54 place returns. For those, that’s a return on over a third of bets which helps the service’s stability. This season, I suspect there is very little in in between those e/w bets and if they’d been backed win only.
          I think it depends on an individual’s betting temperament and if one can happily endure a few more fluctuations then I wouldn’t put you off backing win only, but if preferring a less bumpy ride then e/w is probably best for at least some bets.

  28. Robert Bille says:

    Miles (and Matt) I read most of the comments here on the “blog” and have noticed the odd complaint from time to time that The Syndicate doesn’t work; I’d just like to say for the record that it does (well it has for me) I’m a newbie, I started in March with a 20 point pot… I have banked 140 points to date and still have a 50 point pot. I admit, I have juggled around with a few doubles using your selections and have got lucky but wouldn’t have got there without your knowledge. Hats off to you and thank you.

    Rob

    • No problem at all Rob, that’s really lovely to read. We do find that people (with a few notable exceptions such as yourself and Kieran) generally don’t comment when things are going well but fill their boots during a bad patch so a comment like that is genuinely appreciated.

      As with pretty much all good betting services, the number one mistake people make is having a lack of patience. We all have bad runs but trying something for a couple of weeks, giving up and moving on to something else is generally a costly mistake.

      Cheers,
      Matt

  29. Laurence Pocock says:

    A good day today Miles unfortunately missed the first runner owing to my technical problems which your support team have now belatedly sorted out I’m hopeful now that I can get on track as I’ve missed a few good tips along the way because of these

  30. Robert Bille says:

    Miles what’s the ruling regarding bets placed on an abandoned meeting (Ayr tomorrow)?

    Rob

  31. Laurence Pocock says:

    I picked out Count MonteChristo before seeing your tip for him Miles- it will be interesting to see what happens.

  32. David James says:

    Hi Miles, how’s things? I just wanted to run some thoughts by you regarding win only and each way betting. Now I can’t be sure as I have stopped keeping track of things myself because I just don’t have the time, but I am pretty certain that if we placed win only bets instead of each way as well, that we would be seeing a much more healthy profit. Its seems to be that with the each way picks, a lot of the time they either win the race or don’t place, its happened again today with the 2 selections, so surly just going win only would see better returns and profit. I think its pretty much the same with the Racing Code as well, although it seems happen more on The Syndicate, but as I said I can’t be sure. I was just wondering what your thoughts were on this? Thanks David

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi David, There are some comments on this about 7 comments above yours. Pros and cons to both. It’s something I’ll look at though for both at the end of the season or if there are a few quiet days before then, breaking it down to odds ranges and field sizes, and report back.

  33. David James says:

    Oh yes so there is, I don’t know how I missed that! Its something I’ve been thinking about for a while anyway, not just with your services either. Okay thanks, be interested to know…

  34. Robert Bille says:

    Miles/David what I will add to the point raised by David is on occasion where Miles has opted for a win only on say a 6-1 shot, I have chanced my arm whereby the indicated bet was 1 point. I have placed a 0.75 each way; it has, on a few occasions kept the bet in the black where the selection has not won but has been placed. I know it isn’t directly in relation to David’s point but just another angle that could be looked at!

    Rob

  35. Robert Torr says:

    Hi Guys,
    The last one in the Trixie; should that be Atlanta Belle?
    Cheers.

  36. David James says:

    Hi Robert. I think its each to their own really regarding each way bets and what you are comfortable with. I personally will be backing win only from now on, I just don’t think each way is the way to go on this service, not nearly enough are placing as far as I am concerned. I think as well, when you are betting each way in fields of say 14 or 15 and there are only 3 places, its just not worth it and I find with quite a lot of them they will get done on the line for the place so its even more frustrating! No doubt they will all start placing now!

  37. Miles Tredwell says:

    For balance/information, this season there have now been 236 each-way bets made, giving 84 place returns at a strike-rate of 35.6%. Exactly a third of those have won, two-thirds just placed.

    If you have make three £1 bets at say 8/1 to win, someone else makes three 50p each-way bets on the same and one horse wins and the other two place (the same ratio as this service has had through the season) at 1/4 odds then both of you will have the same £9 returned after all three have run.

    Obviously slightly less is returned if 1/5 odds but on the other hand, more of the higher odds have placed than won such as the 33/1 today and 25/1 last week- the place odds for those are still in the 5/1 to 7/1 range which pays for others not placing.

    This month has had 14 place returns of which 7 won, 7 just placed, but that’s not representative of the season as a whole.

    In other words, I don’t think it makes a huge amount of difference. I suspect in the very long-term backing to win would make the bigger profit but will also have bigger swings.

    If going win only I’d tend to make exceptions if there’s a short favourite and/or if a chunk of the field have little or no chance; if going each-way then always good to note the field size and the chance of it dropping to 7 and only 2 places, especially if backing early and/or if there’s likely to be a going change.

  38. Martin Buttery says:

    Hi Miles/Matt

    I wonder if you can solve this problem. You mention texts quite often. Unfortunately have never received these texts, my mobile no. is on my account. Fear of missing out at play here, use the website all the time. Hope you can help.

    Nice to see positive comments/posts and discussion for a change.

    Martin

  39. Laurence Pocock says:

    Still waiting for Masquerade Bling to run tonight, but the day has turned out really well with two good winners.

  40. Kieran Hagan says:

    And a day that says Win rather than Each Way. If bloody only!! Nice one Miles.

  41. Kieran Hagan says:

    Late signing in tonight and look at the price on Bertiewhittle now. Only 11/1 with Betvictor!!

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      A funny one that as it then went back out to 25/1. It’s often the case that the bookie with the best price will suddenly become the worst price- anyone betting on that horse/team/whatever is likely to go to that bookie while it’s the best price, the bookie then has more of a liability on it than desired so shortens it considerably to discourage further bets or to take bets at a shorter price to be able to balance out. Meanwhile others still have a price one click down.

  42. David James says:

    Thanks for your response a couple of days ago Miles, regarding the each way points raised. Back with a bang today, 2 good winners and I had a Lucky 15 with the selections as well, nice one! Also, my decision to go win only has already paid dividends!

  43. Chris Lugg says:

    Another excellent day, great job Miles!

  44. Kieran Hagan says:

    And another, a cracking few days! If only I had not joined the Racing Code when I did! Still, your performance here and the near misses with the RC give me great confidence for next year!

  45. Kieran Hagan says:

    Can someone please post a link to last seasons NH Syndicate results. I cannot find them.

    Thanks.

    Kieran

  46. Robert Bille says:

    Evening Matt, not sure whether your tips will include anything at Brighton but I have another totally free bet in the 4.20… Is there anything that catches your eye?

    Regards

    Rob

  47. Robert Bille says:

    Sorry Miles (not Matt!!)

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi Rob. It’s one I’ve looked at and put a big line through it- a horrible race. That’s not much use, I know. Buskin is being backed, so somebody must like it, though.

  48. Robert Bille says:

    I oooled at The Special One and at the odds, might just chance my arm!

  49. Robert Bille says:

    *looked*

  50. Derek Shears says:

    Hi Miles,

    According to my records all of today’s selections were losers.

    Is this correct.

    Regards, DEREK

  51. Derek Shears says:

    Hi Miles,

    Today’s selections look a class apart.

    Looks like a big win day to me.

    DEREK

  52. Robert Bille says:

    At 7-1 perhaps you should have said that isn’tshesomething was one of your selections!? Hindsight hey!!!!

  53. Miles Tredwell says:

    Hi Rob, I said yesterday ‘This isn’t a selection due to the price… would have been interested if 11/2 or higher, but not 5/2.’

    As I said today, the drift was too late to send out and count as a bet but would have been a bonus if anyone spotted the price and got on. Here’s the relevant part of yesterday’s post in full:
    ‘(This isn’t a selection due to the price- I’d typed it up before the odds came out so thought I may as well leave it as an additional bit of information.) Isntshesomething has a record in Class 6 in 2017 of 122162 and although she’s gone up a few pounds for that, she still looks capable of adding to the impressive list. The ‘6’ was when coming back from a lengthy break and the latest was an improvement on that when only behind Honey Badger, who had been knocking on the door and went off a well backed favourite, at Chelmsford a fortnight ago.

    There are three others with course form but all have negatives attached to them. Freddy With A Y runs for a stable on a remarkable losing run (147 and counting), while Encapsulated’s yard isn’t much better (2 from 66 this year) and along with Satchville Flyer has a negative jockey booking. The latter also has a wide draw to contend with, along with a couple of other candidates, whereas Isntshesomething should be able to get a prominent position to attack from which could be crucial in a race that’s likely to lack much early pace. (would have been interested if 11/2 or higher, but not 5/2.)’

  54. Paul Williams says:

    Glad you mentioned Isn’tshesomething Miles. (Think you said if it had been 11/2 or bigger it would have been at bet but not at the price last night].Waited till near race time as it was on the drift all day, and got 6/1 and the 7/1 BOG payout! I don’t always have time or remember but I managed it this time.Made up for last night a bit!

  55. Laurence Pocock says:

    Just to say Im not sure what the difference is between the Racing Code and the Syndicate are these sections on different races?

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi Laurence. They have very different starting points in their approach to finding selections. The Racing Code looks for runners from certain trainers (currently around a dozen, although it has used 25 to 30 through the season) with the types of horses/races/conditions in which those trainers have strong and longstanding records. It tries to find elements that form study would miss such as trainers profitable with debutants, others not so strong with debutants but whose runners often improve greatly on 2nd or 3rd runs.
      There is a bit of overlap, but the RC deliberately has a lot of selections in the races I don’t tackle with the Synd- maidens, 2 year-olds, Group races.
      If you email me I can send you some examples. milesbets@gmail.com

  56. Paul Williams says:

    Hi Miles,

    Do you happen to know what the profits figures are with the 0.375 point bets – each way and win only? I understand that 0.375 is half of a 0.75 bet,and it is to do with the strength of the particular bet, but are these necessary, as opposed to just using 0.5, 0.25 and 1 point? I just find staking works out at strange amounts sometimes whereas 0.5, 0.25 and 1 pt is a lot more straight forward. I do not want to stake strange amounts and alert the bookies. I like round amounts like £20, £10, £5 for eg.

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi Paul,
      I agree regarding round amounts and certainly would suggest always doing that. If someone is say compounding then rounding up or down is a sensible measure rather than using odd amounts like 13.72 and 14.23- anything to avoid appearing to have half a clue or a strategy should a bookie’s trader scan a list of bets.

      With the slightly tiered staking, all bets are deemed worthy of making, but of course some have more confidence behind them, some offer better value and some are more speculative than others. Over time, all from 0.25 to 1.5 points are in profit and that has a bigger ROI the bigger the stake, as hoped for.

      If the 0.375 point each-way / 0.75 point win comes out at an odd amount for your staking level then it’s a little bit swings and roundabouts- if rounding up to 1 point then stakes will increase a bit, profits will also increase a bit but ROI will come down a bit, if rounding down then stakes will go down a bit, profit down a bit but ROI will go up a bit.

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Summer Selections