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Category: SYD Summer Selections
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You should take up a different hobby.
Results a disaster.
How about laying all those potential winners?
If you are using a suitable bank and have a long-term approach then you wouldn’t make such a comment. You have access to the results pages with 2 years worth of results so you can see for yourself how you would have got on laying them. As you’re clearly new to betting, try asking questions and attempting to learn rather than being rude.
Just responding to a comment I made yesterday, and your response, on the other part of the selection page
You seem be of the impression that I was having a go but that is not the case exactly. Your defending your service anyway, which is fair enough. The main point I am trying to make, is that I am considering not betting on flat racing at this time of year as results are very poor. I have been following 3-4 flat racing tipsters including yours and all of them are performing poorly. I guess what I am asking myself is it coincidence that a lot of other flat racing tipsters are also doing so badly at the same time or is it actually a very bad time of year to be betting on flat racing? I think my point about current results being shocking is a fair one because they have been, there’s no getting away from it and I also said this for reasons mentioned above. I would also like to add that I have been betting seriously on horses for about 2 years now and I know as well as anyone about unlucky 2nds, bad rides, no luck in running etc, I have at least 2-3 done on the line every single day and the amount of 2nd places I get is, quite frankly, unbelievable, but unfortunately a loser is a loser. Some are unlucky but some are also well between into 2nd so not really unlucky, just the wrong pick. Anyway, I hope this has cleared up my thoughts, in particular on betting on flat racing in the winter months, as you have stated yourself the best profits have come in the summer…
Cheers for coming back to me, David.
A few thoughts spring to mind re winter/summer differences. I do think the winter flat is more difficult for a few reasons:
– one of the advantages a tipster/bettor can have over bookies is by being more focused on a particular event and knowing more about it than they do. In the summer their attention is diluted across many meetings whereas in the winter it’s just one or two and therefore there are fewer pricing mistakes.
-with fewer races to watch, any ‘eyecatchers’ are noticed more widely
– other tipsters/bettors on the flat are often tipping in the same races in the winter so value can often disappear quickly
– the jockey pool is far shallower thus an outsider may well be ridden by a lesser talent or an inexperienced one and that has to be factored in while it also makes it harder to find a good price on the best jockeys’ rides.
– it can be harder to ascertain true running styles as there’s a lot of jostling for position on the tight tracks
– downturns ‘feel’ worse because with fewer bets they last longer in terms of time and that requires more patience from both tip provider and receiver
(All that said, I think the hardest times of year are the crossover of seasons from NH into Flat and back again in April, then end Oct/early Nov.)
Regarding the results being ‘shocking’. We’ll have to agree to disagree on that- you say ‘shocking’ I say losing a quarter to a third of the bank can and will happen from time to time and should be expected, hence a bank, and you shouldn’t be shocked by something you expect.
My point about near misses or ill-fortune wasn’t to moan about it but to encourage it being taken on board as part of the perception of how a tipster is performing (and the likelihood of future profit or loss) rather than simply looking at the balance sheet as the main guide. It’s my belief that if tips are doing what’s expected and missing out narrowly or unluckily then that tipster is on the right track and the profits will come, especially at larger prices. That’s where I am at the moment whereas I was less happy a month or two ago when breaking even due to inconsistent performances of selections.
That said, I’m not content with some of the runs at Southwell. The sprints there have been good, but there have been too many struggle there over further for my liking and is something that needs looking at.
At the end of the day, whether on a winning spree or a downturn, whether summer or winter, I’m looking for contenders who are priced higher than they should be. There are fewer in winter for the reasons above, but I’ve been doing it long enough and successfully enough to have every faith that collectively these selections will make a long-term profit.
Your comments about Multiples and the pro’s and cons left me completely bewildered. I found your explanation totally incomprehensible. My eyes just glazed over after the first couple of paragraphs. It’s now as clear as mud. Thanks Miles
Fair enough, useful to know. I’ll put it aside for a bit, come back to it with fresh eyes and try to make it easier to follow.
I get where you are coming from on multiples. While I do occasionally play multiples on my own, I don’t stake them equally to regular bets. Because they are such long shots, a small stake of a pound or two each way could bring some massive returns.
I’ve only had one this year come home, back in January it was, and the payout on £2 each way was a little over £800. This means I can have another 200 tries at that price before it starts to cost me anything.
I prefer the treble to the trixie simply for the odds boost. I don’t always play the long shots but when I do, it’s based on each way plays from quality tip services. Like this one who contributed two of the three in the jackpot treble. I might just have another one tomorrow.
Cheers John. Sounds like a very sensible approach that also keeps a bit of excitement alive. Good stuff!
Hi Miles. Thanks for your detailed response, its appreciated. We have had 2 good winners today so hopefully things are starting to turn around!
Cheers David. Yes, very happy with the week and the general performance of the selections.
Didnt receive no email today while at work missed a 10/1 winner thanks
sorry i didnt receive no text
The email went out as usual so not sure why you didn’t get it. If you check the website each evening or morning that’s the safest bet for not missing anything.
Hi Peter. Until the end of the All-Weather season on 14th April, I’m putting up selections at 6.30pm Monday to Friday evenings. It’s only any at any other time will have a text to let you know.
Sorry, my first reply wasn’t relevant- it’s been a long day. Sorry if you didn’t get it, but I did send a text last night (Sunday night) at 6.38pm. and I send them to myself to check it’s gone okay and all seemed to be fine.
If you didn’t get a text or an email it suggests there may be an issue with your subscription so if you also don’t get today’s email I would contact customer services:
You don’t recieve a text now, we were told a couple of weeks ago.
Its fair to say you have turned things right around this last week Miles, all losses recovered from the recent poor run and more so nice one, keep it going! Great call on Robot Boy, I almost went 1 point win, gutted I didn’t but never mind!
Heads up for any last minuters like me, just placed my bet with SJ on Menelik at 5.0
Sometimes pays to be slow, haha!
Hi David, just to let you know, I have just started beting again after many years of saying never again,and I am very impressed with your tips,and approach,showing a profit thank you very much,having read the comments on you tips not up to scratch,then roll on the good times.
Sorry ment for miles lol
Thanks Frank and welcome along. Yes there’s the odd negative comment from time to time as there are periods that underachieve but the overall record of 250+ pts in 2 years with an ROI of 22% should act as reassurance. The second half of seasons tend to be the strongest when there’s more depth to form and trends so am optimistic about keeping the current run going…
Hi Mills,I have watched every race that I have backed on to date,and I must say that on at least five occasions the jockey was at fault for not getting a place or a win.
Do you consider the jockeys when you pick your selections.
Tomorrow’s selection (10/03) currently 9-1 at Sky with an extra place, but 1/5th odds though for the place.
Good spot, Andy, cheers. That makes it with Sky if 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, 1.4 pts returned, with others at 9/1 if 2nd or 3rd then 1.625 pts returned and nothing if 4th. Yep, marginally better, I think.
Go Far wins at 14s, great call! I have to say Miles your giving some really good selections lately, well done. we have been so unlucky with quite a few getting done on the line as well at big odds!
Thanks David. Yes, I’ve felt it’s been a pleasing period, especially with the number of selections at double-figure prices running well, even in defeat. Five weeks of the AW season left so hope to keep it going. (I don’t plan to touch the turf until May.)
Nice call again today Miles, nice one!
Cheers again. By my rough calculations that’s 44 up in last 52 staked which takes the total to over +150 since May. Work still to be done to finish the winter where desired but pleasing form!
Yeah and another 9/1 yesterday, only just remembered to get on what with all the Cheltenham bets!
Interesting to read your comments about multiples. Its something I am interested in as I almost always do multiples of some sort across every tipster I use. Usually it will be along the lines of a Double, Patent or Lucky 15, obviously depending on the numbers of selections a tipster has on any given day. I will then decide, based on the prices, whether to go each way or not. I usually stay away from the Trixie as you need 2 winners to get a return, which brings me on to my next point. If you are following a decent service/tipster, I believe you will then have that extra edge, and with the Patent and Lucky 15 bets, you only need to have 1 winner to get a return of some description, so it not like you are constantly losing your entire stake on these bets if they don’t all win. I would also like to add that over the last year or so, I have had some big payouts from these types of bets, and they have, without question, given me massive profits I otherwise would not have had. I take it upon myself to place these bets, they are very rarely recommended, but I appreciate its not for everyone. You still have to be disciplined and as you stated above, except there are certain to be long losing runs. Its worked for me over the last year or so anyway, but I always stick with it, as over time I believe there will be big profit, but that’s just me! Anyway, on to today’s Patent!
Hi David, I think we’re of a similar inclination there even if the execution varies a little. Like many aspects of betting I think a lot comes down to personal preference and comfort zones, but yeah, having multiples as part of the attack if used in a sensible way can greatly add to profits.
Been with this for month now made a few mistakes but getting the gist of it, on multiple bets on gold cup day your first two tips won at 5/2-20/1,I had the option to cash in a profit of £203 with potential return of £3250.00, I let it ride hoping for another one to strike, not so ended the day with £101 profit,
So I am treating this like the dragons den the product is good i need to study it a bit more,so for now I’m in
Good to hear you’re getting on okay with it so far. Lots of good jump racing to come at Aintree and then the flat season gets underway (where Miles has a great record) so hopefully you’ll be with us for a long time to come.
Do let Miles or I know if you ever have any questions/are unsure of anything.
As Matt said, if you’re unsure of anything then please do let us know, meanwhile good to hear it’s going well so far.
The only thought I’d add- at risk of sounding like a boring git- is to try and take it nice and steady. I’d rather be cautious with the stakes and try to accumulate over time than adopt any boom and bust strategy. With that in mind, I would advocate sticking to singles or keeping any multiples based on those singles to low stakes otherwise it’s likely to be more of a roller-coaster ride than desired.
Hope that helps,
Yes it’s a big consideration and, rightly or wrongly, I think I put more emphasis on jockeys than most which is one of the reasons why we have a disproportionate amount of bets in Apprentice Handicaps and occasionally Amateur Rider Handicaps because of the increased range of skill and experience of the riders.
That said, it doesn’t always go to plan! Are there any rides you have in mind that you didn’t like? Always interested to hear thoughts like this.
Have you ever done a comparison between all selections being win only bets instead of some being each way. I have found this more profitable and would only consider backing each way at odds of 16/1 and above and not always then except for multiples.
Enjoy your service and when does the Code start up again?
Here are the stats from the start of The Synd in Feb 15 to the end of the flat season in Oct 16 for win and each-way, not including any other type of bet (forecasts, multiples, jock champ etc.):
Winners 221 (strike-rate 21.6%)
Place Returns Only 118
Selections with returns 339 (33.14%)
Win Only Bets Advised
Winners 150 (strike-rate 26.88%)
Each-Way Bets Advised
Winners 71 (strike-rate 15.27%)
Place Returns Only 118
Selections with returns 189 (40.65%)
Win part of each-way bets
Place part of each-way bets
A few thoughts to be added to this and I’ll come back with those. The Racing Code will return at the start of May. There will be a few emails going out this month in preparation for that and the first will be this week, quite possibly later today.
copy and paste error- win only bets advised ROI should be 21.37% not 20.76
following on from those figures…
Yes looks like you were right, David, to think backing to win is more profitable and would have yielded an extra 48pts in that period. Something I’ll take on board and it’ll be interesting to see how the winter has fared when the season finishes.
The other notable figure though is the e/w bets had a return on 40% of them whereas on the nose for those bets it was 15% so that will have a slight levelling affect- reducing the profits but also the extent of any downturns.
Also would add that because the place odds are based on a standard quarter or fifth of the odds and based on the win price, there are some race races that lend themselves to each-way betting. For example a worthy short favourite may make the win price of a rival fair but if the race lacks depth the value can be in the place side of the each-way bet. Or a reliable performer against a few unexposed sorts where you can rely on the horse running his race but it not being unlikely there will be an improver somewhere in the field.
Still, hopefully useful figures to know, I hope, and if the reduced frequency of returns suits one’s betting style then it certainly seems to have been more profitable.
Hi, Do you have any stats on the number of overnight withdrawals you get from your selections? On the one occasion I placed my bet at 7.00pm the night before the selection was a non-runner. Since then I have always waited till the next day so I am seldom able to get your projected price.
Hi Jean, You will get your money back with non-runners so no damage done if that happens.
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