The Racing Code

Racing Code 2017: Selections

| April 27, 2017 | 68 Replies

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  1. David James says:

    Hi Miles
    Looking forward to The Racing Code this year, lets face it, it can’t go much worse than last year! It looks like you have made some big changes anyway and I have total faith this year will be a success!

  2. P d Jones says:

    Good luck for this year Miles. Looking forward to some great wins.

  3. Paul Walters says:

    Hi Miles, I finished the syndicate season up 57 points in the end so I am looking forward to giving this ago. Good luck..

  4. Will Freeman says:

    Good Luck Miles , must admit it was a pleasant surprise extending the membership for this year after the disappointment off last year I wasn’t expecting it , I just thought oh well just one of those things that didn’t go to plan and that was that but I still have the faith.

  5. Andy Conniff says:

    1545 Ascot – SkyBet paying 4 places – currently at 9

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Good spot Andy, thanks, and it’s still the case this morning at just before 8am. I’ll record to 3 places, but this is an extra edge if anyone is yet to place their bets.

  6. Miles Tredwell says:

    Cheers for comments guys. Good luck to all this season!

  7. Matthew Ridyard says:

    Cor come on miles. What do you do? Just guess what horses are gonna win? An evens second. I could do better putting a pin blindfolded on the racing page. What process do you do to come up with your selections? I thought your selection process was gonna be better than last year. Its not funny when your people are losing money hand over fist. It’s obvious you will get a winner somewhere down the line. 25% would be nice but its more like 5% if you’re lucky. Very bad tipster.

  8. Matthew Ridyard says:

    I just thought maybe I should place lay your selections. Will probably make a fortune lmao

  9. Miles Tredwell says:

    Matthew Ridyard,
    1 day into the season.

    One selection matched at 1.01- the equivalent to 1/100 in the race. The Racing Post comment was she ‘got stopped in her run and looked unlucky….With a clean run she’d surely have got there.’ Another matched at 1.03 in the run.

    ‘What process do you do to come up with your selections?’ The reasoning next to each selection?

    ‘I just thought maybe I should place lay your selections.’ Well if Syndicate members using a 75 point bank had layed my selections since that service started two years ago they would have lost their bank four times over and I will do everything I can to produce similar results for this service.

    Last year was very disappointing but I feel very confident the modifications made will come good this year- a lot of work, self-criticism and knowledge has gone into it- and I think that will become apparent very soon, though it may take longer than one day.

    I felt my offer to extend membership was a very fair one. However, you will now not have to the chance to find out how it will pan out because I am not prepared to be on the receiving end of comments like that after 1 day. Constructive criticism I welcome. Your sort of comments? No. After that you are not welcome and you will be removed from the service in the morning.

  10. Terry Armitage says:

    hiya Miles

    I agree with you. you do not deserve comments like that. if all had gone in you would have been mr wonderful.
    as i have said before, the season is only just getting going, mid june onwards should make a difference.

    terry

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Thanks Terry. Agree that mid-june onwards is normally peak time although I hope to exploit some early season angles here first 🙂

  11. David James says:

    Yes, very harsh criticism after one day. I can’t understand that at this stage, do you expect every selection to be a winner? Yes the 2 done on the line were short odds but think its fair to say we have been royally screwed over in both of those races, they were clearly the best horses but zero luck. Anyway, hopefully get all the bad luck out the way as the beginning!

  12. David James says:

    My word, done on the line again!

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Cheers David, Yes, it’s quite some start in that regard. Solace taken by having a number invovled in such finishes, frustrating though they’ve been. Let’s hope for a collection to go in favour rather than against somewhere along the way.

  13. Matthew Ridyard says:

    So fair enough miles. Remove me. I am not a mind reader that this racing code is a trading enterprise. I started with you earlier this year in the syndicate and pulled out because the results were bad compared to some tipsters. I am not willing to invest and lose my money if the ROI is not there. Some tipsters have 15 bets a day and the ROI is appalling. All I want is a couple of bets a day with some consistency. I cant watch my money decrease day in day out.

    • I’d be interested to know how long you actually tried the Syndicate for? The overall results this year, last year and since we started are excellent but obviously there are poor runs during that, as there are with every single betting service.

      You say you want consistency but unless the average odds are around the even money mark (or shorter) its grossly unrealistic to expect there not to be double figure losing runs. Miles has been very consistent with the Syndicate in terms of strike rate and overall profit but consistency doesn’t mean every day will have two winners from five selections.

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      ‘I am not a mind reader that this racing code is a trading enterprise.’ I mentioned how low they traded to show how close they came, not for trading purposes.

      ‘I started with you earlier this year in the syndicate and pulled out because the results were bad compared to some tipsters.’ Well, you couldn’t have given it very long because from mid-Feb to the most recent bets at the end of the AW season in mid-April I staked 133 points and made a profit of 63 points.

      ‘Some tipsters have 15 bets a day and the ROI is appalling.’ Oh well, you should avoid them then. I normally advise 3 or 4 bets a day and have an ROI of 22.9% over the last two years.

      ‘I can’t watch my money decrease day in day out.’ Ah, now we get to the problem- short-termism. I’d suggest you stop trying to win day in, day out and start trying to win year in, year out. You’ll find almost every tipster and service has periods performing above and below the norm. You’ll also find good tipsters are trying to make selections more likely to win than their odds suggests rather than picking the most likely winners and therefore are prone to ups and downs. If you judge on the short-term you are rolling a dice. If you are worried about losing days then your stakes are too high. Maybe try lowering them and being more patient?

      Customer services have been asked to remove you, by the way.

  14. Matthew Ridyard says:

    Yes matt. I have signed up for a few and pulled out every time. Tim lowe is trying to get me back with the betfair trading 2 minute trader with podium profits bunged in now. You get all this sell but either I’m unlucky and always sign up to these things on a bad run, or im just being fed bs**t all the time. I have been on betfair for years now and my balance is -£1216 negative. Not bad for 10 years entertainment. I suppose that’s the 5% commission over the years. Anyone can pick winners. My best price was 40/1 a couple of years back. I signed up to one of yours for a month and pulled out because it seemed too long winded to make any profit. Yes I probably am wrong. I know I cant become a millionaire overnight. The only good one that I have been given is by the lucrative racing trust called flat flyers. I don’t know if you have heard of it. If you have a look, since the start of 2015 there have been 20 races with BSP over 18/1 and five of them have come in. I might as well wait for them to come up and have a grand on each. That will be about £80,000 for 20 bets. Not bad ROI at all. If you did all of the selections the ROI comes down significantly but still gives a nice return and that was free by them. I checked the past results on timeform and everything is correct. I shall be watching the racing code and hopefully your subscribers profit out of it. Why I get the hump is because all of these tipsters are picking horses and if they are meant to be that good at reading value, form, trainers etc, more of the horses should at least be placed 50% of the time if they are not winning their races. If they are picking one selection out of a race surely they should get in the frame or thereabouts. I hope you get what I mean. Anyway have a nice weekend.
    Matthew

  15. Matthew Ridyard says:

    Hi miles. Yes you might have a half decent ROI and it is my fault because I didn’t have a betting bank to start with. All I’m saying is I want a tipster that has a bit of consistency. No long downswings. When you start giving people your hard earned money that is what I expect. I am not having a go at you because it is hard to find anyone who is that consistent. If you read the message I sent to matt you will see the best things are for free. I cant remember but a couple of months back I got an email for a high roller type system where the odds were odds on. I went back through his so called results and if you was putting £500 on every tip, about two every three days you would make about £6000 a month. Unfortunately for me I don’t have that money floating around, but that is the sort of tipster we are all looking for. Money makes money. The only downside was the subscription fee. To make that sort of money it was not viable to start on £25 a race because the winnings would get swallowed up on the fee. I hope we are on the same page now and you understand where I’m coming from. Have a good weekend
    Matthew

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi Matthew, Good to see a much more moderate tone. A lot to get through today so will have to be fairly brief but there’ll be an email later which touches on some of this.

      The formula for profiting from tipsters is pretty simple- they have to have an edge/ an advantage over the prices and the users then need to apply that using a suitable bank of points and some patience.

      The best way to make a judgement on who has an edge is using a long-term record and not jump to superficial conclusions over tiny samples- in the above I’m talking about 1300 bets, you’re talking about 20.

      Once you’ve done that you need to apply a bank and patience, accepting ups and downs along the way. If you can’t do that then betting on horses, or at least making a long-term profit from betting on horses, isn’t going to be for you.

      Also, as I said earlier it’s not most good tipsters’ aim to find as many winners as possible or the most likely to win or be in the frame or to have as high a strike-rate as possible. The tipster’s job is to make a profit in the long-term and that means making choices that have a better chance than the odds imply. It’s a difference crucial to appreciating and benefiting from what is trying to be done. More on this in an email later.

  16. Matthew Ridyard says:

    Matt and miles if you haven’t seen flat flyers or first class fancies by LRT I have the pdf’s and will send you them if you want

  17. Simon Coates says:

    Boom! Nice win at 12/1 for Commendatore. Profit for the day and two still to go.

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Cheers Simon and welcome back. A bit of a mixed bag on Saturday but quite pleased with that one for the reasoning behind it. Onwards and upwards…

  18. David James says:

    Off and running with the winners now, lets keep it going!

  19. Simon Coates says:

    Didn’t get on the 4pm at Ayr at 8s as only logged in just before race and took it at 7/2 to win. Boom! Nice one Miles; I’ll take that!

  20. David James says:

    Doing well now Miles, nice one!

  21. Duncan Campbell says:

    Hi Miles.

    Can you explain the difference between your selections here and those listed under the Syndicate banner?

    Duncan

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Sure. The Racing Code is based on a collection of angles, largely trainer based, to come up with runners for consideration and then whittled down to horses that are live contenders.
      Syndicate selections are analysed on a race-by-race basis and have the horse first, though other angles can make the case stronger.
      Plenty of reasoning given with both, but with with very different starting points they come up with selections that the other approach wouldn’t.

  22. Terry Armitage says:

    Hi Miles

    Something i would appreciate your views on, not a whine or complaint just a query.
    over the years i have found that betting on 5 furlong races to be a minefield especially for favorites and especially on AW tracks.there just seems to be too much chaos over the distance, fell out of stalls,missed the break,wrong draw,got boxed in,etc etc.
    therefor i just do not bet on 5 furlong races. is there any logic to my opinion do you think? have you any similar opinion?
    Terry

  23. Miles Tredwell says:

    Hi Terry.
    Sprints are my favourite type of race to bet on so I’m of the opposite persuasion in that respect, but get what you’re saying about some of the pitfalls.

    On some of the AW- Lingfield, Wolves, Kempton (over 5f on the inner loop) and Chelmsford, tight round tracks plus Chester and a couple of others, I think racing position is very important and I’m far more likely to back a horse that’s going to be making or up with the pace. Those have their destiny in their own hands and don’t rely on getting the breaks and gaps normally needed off the final bend. With the short straights, if those coming from behind don’t get a run at the right time it’s game over. With those who come from deeper on those tracks I think it needs to be factored into the price and I’m not keen on backing at short odds if they’re going to need luck in the run (actually I’m more likely to try to find something to oppose it with).
    It’s not a blanket rule and the jockey could tip it- it might be different if Kirby’s on, for example, who’s probably better than anyone at getting those tricky rides home on the AW.Also at bigger prices if there still looks value in it then it’s a different story.
    Not sure if that’s exactly answered, but hope it explains my approach on the AW a bit?

  24. James Edwards says:

    Hi Miles, A good day today. I added a each-way trixie and a separate treble and so had a profitable day. Don’t take-aways always taste nicer when paid for with winnings!! Cheers Miles!

  25. David James says:

    I don’t now what to say really, good day but I had a Patent on and get done by a short head in the last after drifting to the left, returns would have been over 10k, just devastated!

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      It was slow motion agony. I was slightly shocked for a while after that despite only having singles on, so can only imagine how you were feeling. Having watched again, he’s almost gone from one rail to the other.

  26. David James says:

    Yeah that’s exactly what I was thinking when watching, like slow motion, it was such a strange race, I thought we were going to be quite well beaten a couple of furlongs out but he kept going but was going to the left the whole time, if he goes in a straight line he wins, if the jockey didn’t switch he may also have won, its all ifs and buts though now. That has to be the toughest one I’ve ever had to take, I’m still not over it!

  27. Terry Armitage says:

    Hi Miles

    Any views on the Derby.

    40/1 winner ! jockey had 7 rides this seaon and 1 winner !

    how can that be? not just a fluke surely, or am i being a bit nieve

    Terry

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi Terry. Yeah, a few little musings and I was hoping to finish them off for tonight’s Syndicate post but haven’t managed it. I’ll copy and paste them over tomorrow.

      • Terry Armitage says:

        ok
        great
        terry

        • Miles Tredwell says:

          The analysis for the Investec Derby was similarly hit and miss- given its make-up this year it was the right race to try to find an upset, but the wrong selections to do it. It was certainly an interesting renewal in many ways, not least because of a 40/1 winner that had previously shown a lot less than most of the field, ridden by a jockey who is far more likely to be found riding early in the mornings than during the afternoons.

          The Paddy Beggy story is a particularly unusual one and a name worth remembering for pub quizzes in ten years time. Formerly an apprentice in the UK, he then spent a few years riding in Australia before receiving a ban after testing positive for a banned substance. However, it’s the next chapter that he’ll be remembered for, starting in 2015 when he was offered a job riding out for Aiden O’Brien. His choice was, much like a Premier League 2nd choice goalkeeper, to not be involved very often but perhaps to occasionally have a chance of sitting and eating at the top table. He was back in Ireland riding out at 6 a.m. on Sunday morning.

          It’s a role that wouldn’t suit many and eyebrows were raised at the limited number of rides he’s had recently. But, Beggy’s sole previous winner of 2017 was a Group 3 success and when he has been called into action it’s not been in maidens on horses destined to spend their careers competing in the lower grades and bowing out in Claimers on Fibresand, but on Group horses, either currently or in the making. This was no rookie, but a trusted part of the operation.

          With prize money of over £1.5 million there can be little doubt the represented yards had their main men on their perceived best hopes. Ryan Moore had the pick of the O’Brien horses and they had two who clearly had the job of making the pace, presumably to make it a true test for Frankel’s offspring. But, the gap between the likely and the long-shot was a lot narrower this year and evidently closer than the market suggested.

  28. Andy Conniff says:

    Just a quick reminder to everyone – several selections have extra places on offer with various bookmakers – and not all at rubbish prices – check on Oddschecker.

  29. Peter Knight says:

    After today I have now won back all my losses from last year, so I am now back in black!

    Thanks

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Pleased to hear it Peter, thanks for sharing. I still don’t think it’s quite the finished article, but heading the right way. Let’s hope it goes on to build up a decent pot over the rest of the season.

  30. David James says:

    2 superb Saturdays in a row, well done Miles!

  31. David James says:

    Yes I’m sure there will be. I think all the tweaks from last year are paying dividends now and it a lot more consistent also

  32. Peter Lawes says:

    Eirine 33/1-10/1 great pick Miles should stop the moaners for a while onwards and upwards

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Hi Peter. Cheers, chuffed with that one, especially as the week was down at that point. I was torn between thinking it was a cracking price and thinking it was idiotic given the weights so compromised with a small stake. Glad it stayed in!

  33. David James says:

    ANOTHER excellent Saturday, Following on from the 33/1 on Friday, great stuff, only wish I’d had more on there one! This service is really hitting top gear now, well done Miles. Its worth remembering you are doing all this for free as well, so thanks for that. Did you get paid out on Star of the East as it was disqualified?

  34. Derek Shears says:

    Hi Miles,

    When I call up your RC details I get a Header for DataKings.

    Any reason!!!!!!

    Best Regards,

    DEREK

  35. David James says:

    Another good weekend Miles, maybe stay away from short prices though? I never place bets on anything really short or odds on but I did today, don’t think I will be again!

  36. Kieran Hagan says:

    Price on Thomas Cranmer completely collapsed!

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      You’re not kidding- that was extraordinary. It would have required extremely quick work to match that price, especially far down the list on a busy day, so I’ll record a lower price should he win.

  37. Kieran Hagan says:

    There was a Paul Hanagan hatrick in the 3 Racing Code selections for today, beating our horse into 2nd in two of them, including a photo for which we were fav all the way on Betfair until the result was declared. He rode for us as a Syndicate bet too but for that he was bloody 2nd. Typical.

    I am over 15 points down since joining the Racing Code and am sorry I joined when I did. No doubt that is not a lot when you had 70 points fat to lessen the blow, just bad timing for me!

    • Miles Tredwell says:

      Yeah an unfortunate day for Fahey’s 2 year-olds to decide to return to form- they were 2 from 42 lately before today and that was Hanagan’s first debutant winner for Fahey since July.
      Slightly unfortunate timing for you Kieran yes in that a few days earlier and you’d be up. But this is the fourth dip of 15 points or more this season, so not that unusual, and yet each month has finished up so far. It’s still a bit spikier than The Syndicate, but all very comfortably within a 75 point recommended bank with a few close finishes the difference between being up and down in any period, as is often the case.

  38. Robert Torr says:

    Hi Miles. Can’t see Carlisle on oddschecker or B365?

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