Quiet Achiever: KEBAB (Keeps Every Bookie At Bay)
What’s it all about?
“OK – it’s about time I came out of semi-retirement and showed a public face again. At present all I do for the wider world is my twice a year articles for the Racing Post Guides as a 10 to Follow… I’m the Quiet Achiever, which you can check out easily by opening any of the NH/Flat Guides since they were Victor Chandler Guides way back when. I used to run a laying service but gave up when I found too many ‘suspect’ results occurring. I still feel laying is somewhat risky due to the ability of many people to affect the prices and results (check out how many horses win northern/midland handicaps having made most or all virtually unchallenged after a very late market move to see what I mean).
“If selected I will be putting forward each way bets (win & place on Betfair) in handicaps, both Flat and Jumps, with an average of 10 tips a week. I would expect a win strike rate of 20%, a place rate of 40% and an ROI of above 15%. Optimistic? Perhaps. But as I’m currently hitting 22%, 50% and 27% respectively I’m quite chilled!!!”
Sport: Horseracing (flat and jumps)
Bet type: Back bets single and place (or each-way)
Number of bets: Average of 10 to 11 a week
Starting bank: £1000 to £10 stakes
Stake: 4% of bank per horse
Results
Phase One Stats (points not pounds)
As of 17th September…
Stake: 182
Return: 150.44
Profit: -31.56
ROI: 17.34%
Final Overall Stats (points not punds)
As of 17th September…
Stake: 182
Return: 150.44
Profit: -31.56
ROI: 17.34%
Category: Betting Systems, Proofing, The T Factor
OK, Day One is here.
The selection runs in the 5.10 at Lingfield – Mizbah. Currently available on Betfair at 4.0 for the win and 2.04 for the place. All my advices will be proofed at Betfair win and place SP, so these are just an indication of what you can get at 10.50am – best bookies at present are Bodog at 3.75.
My only concern is the drift in price this morning: other than that this horse ticks every one of my boxes.
Brian, QA
An interesting variety of challengers on here – I reckon there’ll be a lot of fun along the way and, who knows, we may find several worthy of following long after the T Factor closes. I hope we can all come out ahead for Matt, Agora and, most importantly, our fellow Ranters.
The best of British to all of the T team, Brian, QA
Not the perfect start, touched off for second and no return on outlay.
Two selections today, both this evening at Perth.
700 Tough Talkin Man
805 Sun Tzu
Both 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP
Is it the Law of Sod kicking in, or tournament nerves? None from three so far, but my shortlist yesterday had four winners from seven – it was me that made the choices and me that carries the shame!
Today has one selection – at Goodwood in the 4.55 – Valiant Girl 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP. Currently (0940) 9.4 on Betfair and 8.5 with Sportingbet.
Cheers, Brian
Still drawing a blank, which is unsettling for all concerned.
Two today, both 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP
Goodwood 525 Marshgate Lane (8.8 on B/f and 8.5 and 8 at most bookies)
Ffos Las 815 Nave (generally 5 all round but being backed)
Cheers, Brian
Off the mark at last…a non-runner and a third, beaten a head and a head in a tight finish, at 11/1 – BSP place 2.61, so a 0.61 gain on the day.
Two for today –
Thirsk 255 Dhhamaan (6.8 now)
Newmarket 800 Three Bards (4.0)
As ever, both 1 point win and 1 point place
QA Brian
A winner arrived! Two profitable days on the run, so here’s for a third with a trio of bets – all 1 point win an d 1 point place at Betfair SP -
Thirsk 335 Osteopathic Remedy
Newton Abbot 420 Royal Riviera
Hamilton 845 Party Line
Cheers, the QA
An appalling week so far, with just one day left to get it right.
Both bets at 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP
Market Rasen 505 Mr Valentino
Newbury 525 Scarlet Belle
(Also, On The Hoof may well go close at a big price in the 515 at Chester…)
Cheers, Brian (QA)
After a great finish to week 1, with Scarlet Belle coming in at 13.13/1, I’ll try to carry on where I left off.
Two selections today – and as always they’re advised at 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP.
Ripon 750 Restless Bay
Ripon 850 Elijah Pepper
Cheers, Brian
Week 2 started the same way as week 1, but I’m hopeful today with three selections – each at 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP.
Wolves 240 Almaty Express
Catterick 320 Gap Princess
Catterick 520 Come Hither
Cheers, Brian
Three out of three profitable advices – that’s a bit more like it! Winners at 10.14 and 5.30 and places at 3.07, 2.32 and 2.05 meant a gain of 15.74 pts after 5% Betfair commission.
Two selections today, both at Kempton this evening, and as ever both 1 point win and place at Betfair SP.
600 Hurricane Spirit
830 Asifa
(I’ve had a small saver on Grizzle in the 830)
Brian/QA
Another profitable day, but only just, after the 5% Betfair commission deduction. Both selections placed at odds of 2.51 and 1.73 for a gain of 0.03 of a point.
Today I’m going for…
Haydock 410 Julius Geezer
Sandown 715 Mazeydd
Both 1 point win and place at Betfair SP
Cheers, the QA
Two out of two unplaced yesterday, so hopefully a return to midweek form today. There are two selections, both as ever 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP.
Haydock 800 Magic Destiny
Haydock 830 Brockwell
Cheers, the QA
A profit of 1.31 pts yesterday with a win for Brockwell at 4.18 (and 1.41 the place), plus one loser.
Today’s message failed to load – which I’ve just noticed – so there’s only one left to support now -
Ayr 605 Blown It – ipt win and 1pt place at Betfair SP.
Cheers, Brian
Blown It lived up to its name last night…today, just the one at 1pt win and 1pt place at Betfair SP -
Leicester 345 Watered Silk
Cheers, Brian/QA
So near…just a neck away from a winning bet at juicy odds – but still a nice profit on the place.
Week 3 starts with a busy Monday, yet one of poor contests. Just the one recommendation, to a point win and place at Betfair SP as always -
Lingfield 440 Proper Charlie
Cheers from the QA
Like the way you post your results even the 5% commission keep it up and good luck.
Roy
Thanks for the encouragement Roy! I’ll be doing my best to keep things profitable.
Yesterday’s sole selection was only beaten by a length or so but still only managed fifth, so -2 points for week 3 so far.
Just the one today -
Yarmouth 605 Ebtisama
As always, 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP.
Cheers, Brian
Stone last. I could tell it was going to be bad news as I watched the odds going out from 9 to over 20. Too late by then…
A brace today -
Salisbury 440 Gallego
Southwell 715 Punching
Both for the usual 1 point win and place at Betfair SP.
Cheers, Brian
A non-runner and a loser (as the day before, another huge drifter in the betting) means 6 points down on week 3.
A trio today, each at 1 point win and place at Betfair SP.
Salisbury 325 Urban Daydream
Chepstow 620 Basantee
Stratford 640 Stormhoek
Cheers,
Brian
nice winner in the last well done
Thanks for the feedback! Yes, after a run of five losers, Stormhoek blazed in by 7 lengths at Betfair SPs of 7.4 and 2.66, creating a nett profit on the day of 3.66 points and bringing the week back to just 2.34 points adrift.
A trio again today, each at the usual 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP.
Newbury 325 Asker
Nottingham 350 Sound Hearts
Newmarket 805 Perfect Step
Cheers,
Brian
A bit of everything yesterday – a non-runner, a loser and a fair second at a small profit on the bet, for a loss on the day of 1.78 pts and on the week of 4.12. A hat trick of chances again today will change that (hopefully to the positive!)
Ripon 255 Kyllachy Star
Newmarket 355 Laajooj
Perth 445 Red Riverman
All to 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP, as ever.
And if you want a few bob on a long-shot try Majestic Myles in the 305 at Newbury, who is available at silly prices.
Cheers,
Brian
Another curate’s egg – a winner and a pair of losers but a small loss on the day. The ‘mention’ came just half a length away from a big place gain…
Just one to end the week today – as ever 1 Point win and place at Betfair SP.
Pontefract 345 Ultrasonic
Cheers, QA
A handy profit yesterday with a decent priced second, but still a small loss on the week.
A new one starts here with a pair of selections – as ever to be calculated at 1 point win and 1 point place at Betfair SP.
Wolves 520 King of Windsor
Wolves 550 Luctor Emergo
I’m having a small saver on Asifa in the 520
Cheers,
Brian
A typical Monday (0 from 2) but just a half-length away from profit this week. A brace again today, as ever to 1 pt win and place at Betfair SP.
Warwick 500 Auntie Mabel
Worcester 750 Overlay
Cheers, the QA
A loser and a non-runner yesterday…perhaps I’ll call Mondays and Tuesdays my ‘days off’!
Two today, both at York, and both as usual to 1 point win and place at Betfair SP.
305 Energizer
450 Sir John Hawkwood
Cheers,
Brian
Ouch! Maybe Wednesday should go too
(
A pair today -
Ffos Las 425 Lieutenant Miller
Folkestone 640 Baheeja
Cheers, Brian
A much better day, with a return on both selections (a winner at 3.02 and places at 2.36 and 1.87) for a nett profit on the day of 3.04 pts. Just under 2 pts down on the week, so let’s see what the trio today can do.
York 305 Tazahum
Newmarket 330 Maria’s Choice
Ffos Las 500 Dancing Dude
Cheers,
Brian
A frustrating day of near misses – all three placed, but only one of them paying out – Tazahum just a neck away from a 4.0 result, looking the winner 1f out…
Two for today – as always to 1 point win and place at Betfair SP.
York 305 Simenon
Cartmel 455 Star In Flight
Cheers, Brian
One day left to swerve a losing week and the possibility of going into nett negative for the contest…no pressure there then!
With two of my three shortlisted horses non-runners, it’s easy to pick the selection for today (1 pt win place at Betfair SP as ever)
Goodwood 500 Emkanaat
Cheers, QA
And so, a losing week it was, although the selection ran a good race to come second and get us a return on the place part of the wager.
Plenty of racing today but not many stand-outs for me, so just the one tip at the usual 1 point win and place at Betfair SP
Epsom 305 Lady Gibraltar
Cheers, Brian
A profitable start to week 5 with the selection placing at 2.94 for a 0.84 pt gain. Two today, in the last two races at Epsom – as ever 1 point win and place at Betfair SP
430 Twelve Strings
500 Miss Cap Estel
Cheers, QA
Consistently in the places this week, with both selections 3rd yesterday for a small nett loss. Try this trio today, all at 1 point win and place to Betfair SP…
Worcester 320 Mister Hendre
Carlisle 330 Red Orator
Wolves 840 Panettone
Cheers, Brian (QA)
A nice winner and two blanks yesterday for a 1.76 nett points profit.
Today sees two nominations, both as ever at 1 point win and place to Betfair SP…
Hamilton 340 Henry Clay
Kempton 850 Little Black Book
Cheers, Brian
A disappointingly blank day yesterday – hopefully better today, of course…
Two of them, both as always at 1 point win and place at Betfair SP -
Thirsk 240 Solar View
Wolves 820 Almaty Express
Small gain with one winner from 2 – we knew the fate of the other when it drifted (OK, drowned!) from 11 to 25 on Betfair. After five weeks of tipping, I’m now on a small nett loss of just under 5 points, with two days left to post a profit. Three today may do it…
Beverley 240 Copperwood
Beverley 315 Universal
Sandown 325 Falls Of Lora
All, as ever, to 1 point win and place at Betfair SP
Cheers, Brian
So near and yet…one decent winner, one missing out on a place by under half a length and the desperately unlucky Falls of Lora, who was looking at first or second until stopped in her tracks in the final 70 yards…
That leaves just one day to get back into nett profit, and just one bet at the usual 1 point win and place stake -
Newton Abbot 510 Skippers Lad
Cheers, the QA
A poor day’s racing ahead, with just the one nomination at 1 point win and place Betfair SP -
Wolves 530 Blue Dune
The price on Ajeeb in the 330 is ridiculous…either there’s something wrong with the horse or it’s immense value – I’ve had an each-way tickle in case it’s the latter.
Cheers,
Brian
Backed in running from 12 down to 2.4 but fading at the end…good value but still a loser. Hope you had a penny or five on Ajeeb, which got the place well at a nice price.
Just the one again today, at the standard proofing of 1 point win an d place -
Leicester 230 Konstantin
And for outstanding value, the old boy and course specialist Oddsmaker is way too high at 22 for the 425 at Musselburgh and worth an each-way dabble.
Cheers, Brian
This isn’t doing my blood pressure much good! BSP of 15.59, traded as low as 1.03 in running before going down by a head. Ah well, still a profit on the day via the place part of the bet.
There are two today, proofed as always at 1 point win and place to BSP.
Lingfield 430 Debating Society
Kempton 830 Yasir
Cheers, QA Brian
Ahhhhh – the change that was needed with a decent winner from the two selections and a profit on the day of 1.2 points nett.
Three for you today, all at 1 point win and place (or each way of course)…
Haydock 335 Justineo
Kempton 810 Inthar
Kempton 840 Lytham
I’ve had a small saver on Saytara in the 810
Cheers, Brian
Well that change didn’t last long – back to earth with a bump and three duds.
Today’s the biggest one yet for me in this challenge, as I’m putting five forward – all will be proofed to 1 point win and place at Betfair SP, as usual, and are recommended as 1pt e/w bets.
Brighton 315 Always Eager
Haydock 335 Julius Geezer
Haydock 410 Decision By One
Haydock 515 Cape Classic
Haydock 545 Daring Indian
Cheers, Brian
Very tempting to retire again after yesterday, which was my biggest betting drawdown in the past five years or more. But I have faith in my madness (should that be methods?)
Today’s selections, as always proofed at 1 pt win and place to Betfair SP, are
Kempton 305 Maverik
Stratford 420 Papradon
Kempton 445 Enery
Cheers, Brian
Brian,
Stiff Upper Lip, Chin Up And All Other Baloney People Say When Things Are Not Going As You Want Them To……….
Personally, I Think Anyone Who Predicts And/Or Bets On The Outcome Of A Horse Race Is Very Brave.
Rather You Than Me!!!!!!
Keep Going, You Never Know, You Might Just Find The New Shergar. Better Still Find The Old One And You Will Make An Absolute Fortune.
Kev..
Hey Kev – a massive ‘ta very much’ for the encouragement…and it started off a good day, with a nice winner at 6.56 and a half-length second at 9.18 (3.58 the place)making a 100%+ profit on the day. I’ll keep going lad!
Just one today, as ever at 1 point win and place -
Fontwell 415 Mangonel
Cheers, Brian
Pulled up yesterday…and just the single selection today, as always to 1 point win and place -
Newton Abbot 410 Changing The Guard
Cheers,
Brian
A decent winner yesterday from the only selection – let’s hope for a similar result today, staking as always 1 point win and place…
Leicester 420 Scarlet Belle
Cheers,
Brian/QA
Placed at 1.97 so very little damage done to the pot yesterday. There are two selections today at the usual 1 point win and place -
Carlisle 430 Master of Arts
Carlisle 505 Lanarkshire
Cheers,
Brian
Disappointing yesterday with just a place from the two bets. One selection only today, at the usual 1 point win and place -
Epsom 515 Brocklebank
Cheers,
Brian
A handy profit from the place yesterday – just a length away from that nice priced winner to get back into overall profit. Ejection from the Tipping Factor house is looking a shade of odds on at present, so let’s see what today’s duo will do – as always to 1 point win and place -
Doncaster 220 Masked Marvel
Wolves 715 Melodrama
Cheers, Brian
OK, one last throw of the dice with three selections today, all at the normal 1 point win and place…
Chester 240 Good Morning Star
Doncaster 340 Thought Worthy
Kempton 920 Jake the Snake
Cheers, Brian
I don’t know what form of dogged perversion keeps me going in the face of proof that I really should stick to the jumps and all-weather…but here are today’s 1 point win and place turf Flat selections!
Bath 210 Saint Irene
Bath 410 Iguacu
Cheers, Brian
If it’s any consolation Brian it’s been a trying time systems,tipsters and any other services with such changeable conditions and a notorious time of year.PLOD ON mate
Thanks for the encouragement Roy – it means a lot. Really, it does!
Week 7 results posted on Table Talk with a dollop of embarrassment.
Week 8, a clean sheet if you believe the psychologists…
Three for today, each at 1 point win and place as ever -
Wolves 430 Majestic Breeze
Brighton 450 Comadoir
Wolves 530 Phase Shift
Cheers, Brian
Just out of interest I lost 23.5pts yesterday right shitty day
Two placed from three yesterday – another trio for today at 1 point win and place at nice prices.
Folkestone 350 Centrifugal
Thirsk 410 Tartan Gigha
Thirsk 440 Stormy Weather
Cheers, Brian
Two winners from three at 8.40 and 3.23 and the other literally squeezed out of a place made for the best day in a while and a profit after commission of more than 9 points. Another day like that would get me back to almost level! So I’ll lump in with another trio at 1 point win and place as always…
Beverley 445 Nice Rose
Kempton 715 Bramshill Lass
Kempton 815 Zing Wing
Cheers, Brian
Just one placed yesterday but the price was nice so not too awful…
Today’s trio of 1 point win and place advices – somewhat altered after Ayr was lost -
Pontefract 430 Descaro
Yarmouth 520 Ghost Train
Kempton 840 Hamis Al Bin
Cheers, Brian
Oh well, the agony is nearly over!
A trio today, each ay 1 point win and place -
Brighton 205 One Way Or Another
Newbury 230 Novirak
Wolves 800 Lindoro
Cheers, Brian
Just two days to go until possible doom and a return to semi-retirement, so it’s a big foursome today, including one for each of the three sprint cups at Ayr, to show I’m in a sporting frame of mind. All, as ever, at 1 point win and place
Ayr 145 Frequency (0.5 pt w/pl saver on Llewellyn)
Ayr 220 Spinatrix
Ayr 330 Doc Hay
Catterick 525 Star City
Have fun, Brian
The fat lady’s singing, the trap-door is swinging
No longer to betting advice I’ll be clinging.
It’s goodbye from me, good luck to the rest
And thanks, Matt, for putting my ‘skills’ to the test.
Just one final quartet at 1 point win and place -
Uttoxeter 340 Eastlake
Hamilton 350 Windygoul Lad
Hamilton 420 Sovereign Street
Uttoxeter 510 Well Mett
Cheers, Brian
Hi Brian,
Are you pulling out or fighting on? You didn’t finish bottom of the vote so it’s not over yet (unless you want it to be).
Regards,
Matt
Could I also have your updated results when you get a sec please?
Thanks,
Matt
Hi Brian,
Are you sure you want to leave??
If your mind is made up then i wish you all the best for you and your nearest and dearest.
Take care and remember, fortune favours the brave.
I can think of nothing more brave (in the tipping world) than trying to pick a winning horse….
Regards, Kev….