Mousecliff: Flat Four Factors Selection Process
What’s it all about?
“Whilst many horse racing punters invest time and money into studying the same factors such as form, course, distance, going and so on, they are often missing other factors which would give them an edge if only they strayed from the herd. Inevitably, the seemingly most obvious indicators also drag down prices and remove value. By finding different angles you can find horses which offer genuine value, are real contenders and hold their prices.
“After a fair few years of thinking in such an ABC way, I began looking at ways which would escape most punters viewpoints. A few years and a more than a bit of tweaking later and I ended up on the FLAT FOUR FACTOR SELECTION PROCESS.
“What are these four factors? Ok, loosely speaking they are trainer, jockey, time of year and distance. There is, of course a fifth factor, which is more than a fair bit of research. At this point, it may just sound like words without substance, so let me flesh it out just a little bit:
“I’m looking for trainers with a good record over certain conditions;
I’m looking for jockeys with a good record over certain conditions;
(I’m looking for their combination to be successful too)
I’m looking for the above to be successful at this time of year and over the respective distances.
“Beyond that, I’m also basing selections upon high strike rates, consistency and, most importantly, a significantly positive historical ROI.
“I want high win strike rates so this gives a consistent return and not hit huge highs and lows which is probable with higher odds betting (average odds are around 6 or 7 and most selections in single figures, but with e/w often used in double-figures odds when they’re selected, but again dependent upon certain conditions – this certainly isn’t a 40/1, 50/1, 33/1 and hope to have a lucky run, get rich quick or go bust system/service.)”
“Whilst many punters are just focusing on the horse, they are neglecting the value of a jockey being given a specific ride; how a yard has been performing; the annual trends; the skills of a jockey over specific distances and a trainer’s tendancy to prosper or not over sprints or longer races.
“The profits have been impressive, but what is most striking is how consistently selections run above their value.
“This one is a steady and easy to follow service with an average or between 3 and 4 selections a day (though this normally means more on bigger race days and 1 or 2 days a week without selections or maybe with 1 or 2- it does vary, but 100 a month is typical).”
Sport: Horseracing (flat and all weather)
Bet type: Back bets with occasional win and each-way multiples
Number of bets: Average of three to four a day
Starting bank: £1000 to £10 stakes
Stake: Level stakes
Results
Phase One Stats (points not pounds)
Staked: 226.24
Returned: 284.20
Profit: 57.96
ROI: +25.62%
Single Win Only Bets
Staked: 175
Returned (using Best Odds Guaranteed as advised): 227.69
Profit: 52.69
ROI: +30.11%
Returned (using Betfair Starting Prices after 5% deduction) 211.74
Profit 36.74
ROI +20.99%
Wins: 44
2nds: 29
3rds: 29
Top Three Finishers: 102 (58.29%)
Each-way Bets
Staked: 41
Returned (using Best Odds Guaranteed): 44.58
Profit: 3.58
ROI: +8.73%
Returned (using Betfair Starting Prices after 5% deduction) :44.85
Profit: 3.85
ROI: +9.39%
3 wins, 7 placed
‘Other’ Bets (doubles, Yankies, Super Yankies, Without Favourite, Forecast)
Staked: 10.24
Returned to Industry SP: 11.93
Profit: 1.69
ROI: +16.50%
Phase Two Stats (points not pounds)
Staked: 86.2
Returned: 80.16
Profit: -6.04
ROI: -7.01%
Phase Three Stats (points not pounds)
Staked: 120.76
Returned: 127.36
Profit: +6.6
ROI: +5.47%
Total Stats (after Phase Three)
Single Win Bets
Staked: 336 (77.56% of outlay)
Returned (using Best Odds Guaranteed bookies): 397.80
Profit: 61.80
ROI: 18.39%
Returned (using Betfair Starting Prices: 387.90
Profit: 51.90
ROI: 15.45%
Returned after commision deducted: 372.56
Profit: 36.56
ROI: 10.88%
Finishing Positions
1st 81 (24.11%)
2nd 59 (17.56%)
3rd 49 (14.58%)
Top 3 finishers 189 (56.25%)
Each-Way Singles
Staked: 67 (15.47% of outlay)
Returned (using BOG bookies): 64.58
Loss: 2.42
ROI: -3.61%
Returned (using BSP): 65.77
Loss: 1.2
ROI: -1.84%
Returned after commision deducted: 62.93
Loss: 4.07
ROI: -6.07%
All Other Bets (Multiples, etc.)
Staked: 30.20 (6.97% of outlay)
Returned: 29.34
Loss: 0.86
ROI: -2.85%
Phase Four Stats (points not pounds)
Staked: 97.96
Returned: 120.13
Profit: +22.17
ROI: +22.63%
Final Overall Stats (points not pounds)
Staked: 563.16
Returned: 656.18
Profit: +93.02
ROI: +16.52%
Category: Betting Systems, Proofing, The T Factor
Tues 31st July
Only one-
Goodwood 2.35pm Michelangelo @ 2.38 with BOGs Betfred, BoyleSports, WillHill, PaddyPower. (Also at 2.5 with BlueSquare and 888Sport @ 2.5.)
1 point win.
Nothing for Wednesday
Two for Thursday both at Goodwood-
3.45 Estimate 3.5 Paddypower, Betvictor, WillHill (BOGs)
5.25 Maria’s choice 9 Boylesports, PaddyPower (BOGs)
Three for Friday-
Goodwood 2.00 Gatewood 3.25 Boylesports, BetVictor
Goodwood 3.45 Stepper Point 26 each-way PaddyPower best BOG- recommended. (Better available on exchanges and 1/4 each-way rather than 1/5 still at 26 with Sky, StanJames, Coral.)
Thirsk 4.05 Cosmic Halo. (Currently 9 with Bet365, but will wait for another BOG price in morning.)
0/3 so far.
1 point staked on each, by the way, so the e/w is 0.5 win, 0.5 place, and the other two are 1 point win bets. Thought I should clarify.
Cosmic Halo was a non-runner, Gatewood came 3rd of 7, Stepper 14 from 17. Previously Michelangelo and Estimate both came 3rd (from 12 and 7) and Maria’s came 6th from 16.
2 for Saturday-
Goodwood 5.05 Cuisine 15 e/w Bet365, Boyles, PaddyPower
Newmarket 5.15 We Have A Dream 34 e/w Bet365, Boyles, PaddyPower
Neither of today’s large priced outsiders figured, so it’s 0/7 so far but, of course, very early days.
3 for Sunday-
Chester 4.45 The Bells o Peover 11 (win) Bet365/ BetVictor
Chester 5.15 On The Hoof (Currently 13 with B365. For results clarity and interest of getting best prices, will wait for other BOG prices* and use best at 9.30am if 3 or more have prices. If not then best at 10am – win if 15 or less (decimal), e/w if 16 or more.)
Newbury 5.25 Bountiful Girl (Currently 4.5 with B365. As above.)
*Bet365, Boyles, Paddy, WillHill, Ladbrokes, BetInternet, Betfred.
Annoyingly Chester was abandoned so just the one runner- Bounitful Girl came 5th from 10.
A much busier Monday with 6 picks-
Ripon 3.15 Universal 7.5 PaddyP, 7 with other BOGs.
Kempton 5.00 Natasha Rostova e/w 17 PaddyP, Bet365
Ripon 5.15 Sky High Diver 7 PaddyP
and Authentication 7.5 PaddyP
Kempton 5.30 Charitable Act e/w 17 PaddyP, BetVictor
Wolverhampton 8.20 Christingle – morning prices at 9am, then 9.30 if they’re not up at 9 as in previous post.
All selections 1 point. e/w bets 0.5, so 1 point total.
The BOG list above should include BetVictor, but Ladbrokes only after 10am.
A 7/1 winner started the day with Universal winning having drifted slightly (BOG advised). Christingale also drifted to 11/2 but came second of 11. Authentication and Sky High came 5th and 6th of 9 in the 5.15 and the two e/w bets came 6th from 9 and 12.
So, a slightly profitable day and now 8 returned from 14.
6 for Tuesday-
Wolves 3.40 Courtesy Call 3 Bet365
Catterick 4.50 Croftamie (morning prices)
Kempton 5.55 Autumn Fire (morning prices)
Kempton 7.55 Queen’s Star 5 Bet365/PaddyP
Kempton 8.25 Intransigent 7 Bet365/PaddyP/BetVictor
Kempton 8.55 Auntie Mabel (morning prices)
Morning prices are BOG bookies as described above.
Three winners, a second and a third from 6 selections today. Auntie Mabel went off at 7, Courtesy Call 3.25 and Croftamie 2.5, but was available at 3 with BetVictor at 9am and PaddyP a touch after and Bet365 and Betfred had also priced, so using BOGs as recommended meant a profit of 7.25 on the day.
Intrans came 2nd of 7, Queen’s 3 of 6, Autumn 6 of 12.
Now into profit if only by a small amount with 21.25 returned from 20 staked. (Using Betfair SPs, after 5% commision taken off on winnings, it’s 22.34 returned. But in the long-term the Best Odds Guaranteed early prices will run out winners, I’ve found.) Still early days, but it’s nice to get on that side of the line after a slow first week.
5 for Wednesday-
Brighton 3.50 Perfect Mission 19 e/w WillHill
Pontefract 4.00 Sir Graham Wade 2.75 Bet365/BetVictor
Kempton 6.30 Gallipot and Bold Cuffs (both morning prices)
Kempton 8.30 Viscount Vert 13 Bet365
As per usual, 1 point for each selection. All win bets apart from Perfect (0.5 so 1point in total on that one). For morning- best BOG at 9am if 3 prices are up, if not then 9.30.
Two winners from five today. Gallipot was 4.3 this morning just about everywhere and Sir Graham was 2.75 advised last night. 2.05 profit today then, so 28.3 returned from 25 staked so far.
A busy Thursday-
Brighton 3.50 Maastricht 6.5 BetVictor
Yarmouth 4.00 Shena’s Dream 2.38 BetVictor
Haydock 4.10 Green Park 11 PaddyP/WillHill
Brighton 4.20 Abishena 8.5 BetVictor
Haydock 5.10 Badea morning prices
Yarmouth 5.30 Vexillum morning prices
Southwell 7.05 Argentine morning prices
Sandown 7.15 Deia Sunrise 7.5 PaddyP
Southwell 7.40 Great Nicanor morning prices
Sandown 7.50 Top Billing 5 BetVictor/WillHill
and Keepax 5.5 PaddyP
Two winners from 10 today with Badea a non-runner. Vexillum was at 5 this morning which it also went off at and Shena’s Dream was 2.38 last night as advised. Down 2.62 then, to stand at 35.68 returned from 35 staked.
Five for Friday-
Brighton 4.10 Siouxperhero 6.5 PaddyP/BetVictor
Newmarket 5.40 Rafale 3.5 Bet365/BetVictor
Lingfield 5.55 Greeley House e/w morning prices
Newmarket 6.10 Jimmy Elder morning prices
Newmarket 8.20 Whozthecat 9 Bet365/PaddyP/BetVictor
Two came second, but no returns from todays 5 selections.
6 for Sat-
Hay 1.45 Equitania 7 Betfred
Newm 2.25 Flaxen Flare 13 Bet365/Boyles/PaddyP
Newm 3.00 Highland Colori 6 Boyles/PaddyP
Redcar 4.20 Darling Lexi morning prices
Newm 5.20 Sirius Superstar 17 e/w Bet365/Betfred
Ling 7.45 Silence is Easy morning prices
Just one for Sunday. (One still to run tonight. 4 have run- Highland Colori(6)won earlier and Darling Lexi was a non-runner.)
Folk 5.00 Sigurwana 4 PaddyP
Todays only selection, Sigurwana, came second.
This week +3.68 from 38 (ROI +9.68%)
Overall -4.32 from 46 (ROI -9.39%).
3 for Monday-
Ling 4.10 Pungnacious e/w morning prices
Kemp 5.30 Height of Summer e/w morning prices
Wolves 6.40 Avison e/w morning prices
Two of the three each-way bets today came fourth today and the other didn’t get close so nothing returned from 3 staked. Hitting the post and bouncing out/ball not carrying to the slips quite a lot over the last fortnight. Not necessarily a bad thing- if you keep going close a few more should go the right way.
Quite a busy Tuesday-
Wolves 2.10 Kingsville morning prices
Ayr 2.50 What’s for Pudding morning prices
Ayr 3.20 Shamdarley 7 Bet365/BetFred/PaddyP/Boyles
Ayr 4.20 Ukranian 7 PaddyP
Wolves 4.40 Enery 4.5 PaddyP/WillHill
Notts 5.50 Palazzo Bianco 4.5 Bet365
Yarm 7.35 Dreams of Fire 8 Bet365/PaddyP/Boyles/WillHill
Yarm 8.05 Curly Come Home morning prices
1 point win for each. There’s also a first odds-on selection so far, so will add a 1/4 point each of the above in a win double with Universal (Wolves 3.40). WillHill 1.73, then PaddyP and Bet365 1.67 for those priced now, or best BOG prices in the morning in the normal way for the others. (10 points staked in total on the day.)
Ukranian won, plenty in top 2 or 3 but not making it, so -3 for the day.
2 for Weds-
Bever 5.25 Alianti win morning prices
Southwell 6.15 Regal Swain e/w 13 Bet365
Aliante won at 4/1 but Regal was disappointing. So far 53.68 returned from 61 staked.
5 for Thursday-
Beverley 3.05 Hunting Rights 3.75 BetVictor
Newmarket 3.15 Dixies Dream 6 Bet365/Boyles/BetFred/WillHill
Salisbury 3.25 Infinitum 5.5 Bet365
Newmarket 3.45 Ask Dad 4.5 Bet365
Salisbury 3.55 Trade Commissioner 3.5 BetVictor
Hunting Rights won. Two seconds and a third from the other four. (Will work out various stats on these for the end of the week.) -1.25 on the day then to stand at 57.43 returned from 66 staked.
4 for Friday
Newbury 3.25 Grandiloquent 4.5 BetVictor/PaddyP/BetFred
Newcastle 3.35 Space War 9 WillHill
Nottingham 4.55 Fosters Road morning prices
Catterick 8.15 Strong Man e/w morning prices
Fosters Road won at 9 having been 8.5 this morning with BetFred, so the benefit of only using BOGs gets an extra half a point. Two non-runners and nothing from Grandiloquent. Up 7 on the day to stand at 66.43 from 68 staked.
8 for Sat, all 1 point wins-
Donc 1.35 Alkadi morning prices
Newbury 2.00 Ninjago morning prices
Newbury 2.30 Masked Marvel 6 Bet365/PaddyP/BetVictor
Chester 3.00 Scatter Dice morning prices
Newbury 3.05 Strong Suit 3 Bet365/WillHill
Newbury 3.40 Jacob Cats morning prices
Donc 3.50 Mont Ras morning prices
Newbury 4.55 Commend morning prices
A frustrating day with 6 of the 8 selections finishing in the top 3 but none winning.
2 for Sunday-
Ponte 2.45 Key Gold 5 Bet365
Ponte 4.15 Asatir 4.3 bet365/BetFred/WillHill
Make that 8 out of 10 for the weekend.
Overall -11.57 from 78 staked (ROI -14.83)
Week Three -7.25 from 32 (ROI -22.66)
Week Two +3.68 from 38 (ROI +9.68%)
Week One -8 from 8 (ROI -100)
2 for Monday-
Windsor 7.00 Burke’s Road 3.5 WillHill
Kempton 9.20 Macchiara 5.5 Bet365
Burke’s Road won, Macchiara came 4th. 69.93 returned from 80 staked now.
2 for Tuesday-
Warwick 7.00 Danz Choice 3.5 Bet365/PaddyP (BF 4.42)
Brighton 3.45 Scarlet Belle 5 Bet365/BetFred/PaddyP/BetVictor (BF 4.71)
Still propping up the table, which is obviously disappointing. Not all doom and gloom though- 26 selections have only missed out on the money by a position or two, so the figures could have been quite different. It’s served me well in the past, so hoping all will come good. Still/always learning, so any thoughts welcome.
I haven’t done this for a while, so thought I’d sum up some of the approach and house-keeping methods:
The average odds of the winners so far is 4.99 and the overall average odds have been around 7. Normally I’ll go each-way if the odds mean doubling-up for a place. If not, choosing a win bet. I’ve looked at if it’d be worthwhile going each-way for lower odds as well, but the returns would be very similar so far during this competition, but returned less prior to it. Swings and roundabouts.
Non-runners are not included in my totals for staked nor returned figures (ie the figures are only for runners- non-runners have staked returned, so think this is the easiest/clearest way of showing progress).
Oddly none of the winners so far have had a rule 4 (deduction in price due to non-runners withdrawn after bet is placed) imposed but will include this if it happens.
I suggest using Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) bookies- Bet365, PaddyP, WillHill, BetVictor, BetFred, BoyleSports, BetInternet and Ladbrokes (Ladbrokes only after 10am)- so if the price drifts you get that better price. I’ve found this generally works out better in the long-term than using Betfair starting prices and much better than other non-BOG bookies. Betting early maximises this.
From now on, I’ll also include Betfair prices at time of posting for comparison purposes, with 5% commission taken from price. (Commission should be taken from each winning bet and not from overall profit figures.) But, there may not be much money propping up these prices.
I’ll take the best BOG evening prices if a few are available. If not, I’ll go for morning prices at 9am if 3 or more are up (9.30 on Sundays). If not then half-hour later. (Doing this to be clear on recording results fairly.)
Hope that all makes sense. Now I just need to get things back into a decent profit!
Good luck with your betting and if any questions/thoughts please fire away,
Mousecliff.
Danz Choice came 3rd- finished well but another sloppy ride by Ryan Moore left him too much to do and Scarlett Belle was fifth.
6 for Weds-
Ling 2.40 Scarlett Fever 3.5 Bet365/PaddyP/BetVictor
York 3.05 Thought Worthy 9 PaddyP/BetVictor
York 3.40 Farhh 5 Bet365 (WITHOUT FRANKEL (favourite))
Ling 3.55 Spithead 5 BetVictor
Ling 5.05 Expose 8 Bet365/BetVictor
Kempton 5.50 Gallipot 3.5 PaddyPower/BetVictor
A very pleasing day with 4 of the 6 bets winning and 18.25 points profit. Thought Worthy and Spithead both drifted a point, so with Best Odds Guaranteed returned 10 and 6. Farhh was only beaten by Frankel so won the without Frankel bet. Gallipot did have a rule 4 imposed to bring the price down to 3.25. The figures now stand at 94.18 returned from 88 staked.
The straight win bets- all aprt from the without Frankel bet and two points on a double last week- have returned 89.18 from 85 staked using the BOGs and returned 84.32 using Betfair starting prices (after 5% deducted).
3 for Thursday (a couple more might follow later)-
York 2.30 Rosdhu Queen 6.5 PaddyP/WillHill
York 3.05 Invisible Man 15 each-way (0.5 win, 0.5 place) Bet365/Boyles/BetFred
York 3.40 The Fugue 2.75 Boyles/WillHill
Rosdhu Queen won but a rule 4 brought the price down to 5.95. So, 2.95 up on the day to stand at 100.13 returned from 91 staked.
6 for Friday-
York 2.00 Tropical Beat each-way 21 BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
York 3.05 Questioning 9 PaddyP
Newmarket 4.40 Al Wajba 6 Bet365
York 4.50 Pure Excellence 9 PaddyP
Newcastle 5.05 La Slyphe morning prices
Hamilton 7.05 Edmaaj 11 Bet365
All 1 point win except Tropical.
Another to add for today-
Hamilton 6.05 Ambitious Icarus 6 PaddyP/Ladbrokes.WIN WITHOUT THE FAVOURITE (Planetex)
Tropical Beat placed so a good start to the day.
Edmaaj won (just) and with 3 returned for Tropical Beat place, 14 returned from 7 staked today. 114.13 returned from 98 staked now. Al Wajba came third and La Slyphe a close second, losing the lead in the last stride or two but with the much higher priced Edmaaj winning in a photo I can’t complain.
8 for Saturday-
York 3.05 Ashar Tau each-way 15 Boyles (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
York 3.40 Cambourne 9 Boyles/BetFred/WillHill
Newmarket 4.00 Minalisa 4 Bet365/PaddyP
Windsor 6.45 Grandeur 5 Bet365/BetFred
Redcar 7.00 Ingleby Exceed each-way morning prices (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Windsor 7.15 Nazreef win morning prices
Redcar 7.30 Vexillum win morning prices
Windsor 7.45 Highland Duke win morning prices
Ingleby Exceed won having been 15 at 9am this morning. (It was higher for most of the day until the minutes before the start but that’s my time for taking prices.) 9.75 returned as backed each-way (1/4 odds for place part). Highland Duke was a non-runner, Vexillium (9) came second, as did Minalisa and Grandeur came third. 123.88 points returned from 105 staked now.
3 for Sunday-
Goodwood 3.20 Regal Realm 8 Bet365/BetVictor
Beverley 4.05 Party Line 4.5 PaddyP
Yarmouth 4.50 Jawhar 5 Bet365
A good end to a good week with both Party Line and Jawhar winning from the 3 selections to be 6.5 points up on the day and up 36.95 points on the week with 30 staked and 66.95 returned.
Overall +25.38 from 108 staked (ROI +23.5%)
Week Four +36.95 from 30 staked (ROI +123.17%)
Week Three -7.25 from 32 (ROI -22.66)
Week Two +3.68 from 38 (ROI +9.68%)
Week One -8 from 8 (ROI -100)
Monday’s to follow later.
2 for Monday-
Epsom 5.25 Copperwood 7 PaddyP
Newcastle 5.45 Green Park each-way 13 BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Copperwood came third and Green Park fourth, so no returns today.
2 for Tuesday-
Epsom 4.30 Novirak 6 PaddyP
Ripon 4.45 Horatio Carter 7.5 PaddyP
Novirak came close, finishing 2nd, having been match in-running at 1.17. Horatio came a disappointing 7th. 133.38 points returned from 112 staked so far, up 21.38.
7 for Wednesday-
Carlisle 3.30 Red Orator 6.5 Bet365/BetVictor
Catterick 3.40 Idler 6 Bet365/WillHill
Kempton 7.20 Vexillum morning prices (win)
Wolves 7.40 Shamdarley 8 PaddyP/WillHill
Kempton 8.20 Mizwaaj 3.5 PaddyP
Wolves 8.40 Top Frock 4 Bet365
Kempton 8.50 Asifa 11 Bet365
All 1 point win bets.
Red Orator won, but Rule 4 brought price down to 5.95. Pretty poor runs from others so -1.05 on the day. Due to late posting will use morning prices as previously described for prices for Thurs runners.
Ling 3.00 Locum (currently 7.5)
Ling 3.30 Sirius Superstar (6.5)
Hamilton 3.40 Henry Clay (3.75)
Ling 5.05 Gracies Gift e/w 0.5 win, 0.5 place (15)
Kemp 8.50 Royal Empire (3.75)
Royal Empire won having been 3.5 at 9 am with Paddy Power, but Rule 4 down to 3.25. Locum was a non-runner, so down 0.75 on the day.
4 for Friday-
Thirsk 3.50 Pofile Star 3.75 PaddyP
Sandown 4.35 Devdas 5.5 WillHill/BetVictor
Salisbury 7.10 Little Dutch Girl 9 Bet365/PaddyPower
Wolves 9.20 ExceedExpectations morning prices
Profile Star came second, Devdas and Little Dutch Girl were third and ExceedExpectations fourth.
9 for Sat-
Beverley 2.40 Paramour e/w 13 BetFred/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Sandown 2.50 Fantastic Moon 5.5 Bet365/BetFred/WillHill/BetVictor/PaddyP/Boyles
Sandown 3.25 Gathering e/w 13 PaddyP/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
and Burke’s Road 13 e/w WillHill(0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Beverley 3.45 Fear Nothing 7 BetFred
Sandown 4.00 Valiant 6.5 BetVictor
Beverley 4.15 Pepper Lane 7 Bet365/Boyles/BetFred/PaddyP/BetVictor
Chester 4.20 Mayoman 11 BetFred
Bath 7.10 Spartan Spirit 4.3 BetVictor
Fantastic Moon won, Gathering drifted a touch to 15 and picked up place money for third. Mayoman also drifted to 15 and came second. Fear Nothing also came second. So, close to being a good day, but -1.25 in the end.
2 for Sunday-
Folks 4.30 Hesperides 4 Bet365
Folks 5.00 Candycakes 13 e/w BetFred/PaddyP/WillHill/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
correction, down 1.6 not 1.25 (1/5 odds for the e/w return, not the 1/4 odds I thought).
From today’s two, outsider Candycakes won some place money and Hesperides (matched 1.19 in-running) came 2nd, losing by a neck. It’s been the story of this week and 2 weeks ago with many going close. A nicely profitable week sandwiched in-between had the a few tight ones go in favour so will try to keep balanced and pick up again this week.
Overall +13.68 from 138 staked (ROI +9.91%)
Week Five -11.7 from 30 staked (ROI -39%)
Week Four +36.95 from 30 staked (ROI +123.17%)
Week Three -7.25 from 32 (ROI -22.66)
Week Two +3.68 from 38 (ROI +9.68%)
Week One -8 from 8 (ROI -100)
Monday’s to follow in a bit.
Wolves 2.30 Columella e/w morning prices (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Wolves 3.30 Pilgrim’s Rest 8 Paddy Power
Ffos 4.50 Bouncy Bouncy 7 Ladbrokes (non-BOG. Best BOG 6 Paddy/WillHill)
A blank from today with 5th, 4th and 3rd finishes. 2 for tomorrow-
Leicester 2.30 Konstantin 8 Bet365/BetVictor
Mussel 3.50 Tussie Mussie 7 Bet365
Tussie Mussie won nicely (non-runner brought price down to 6.4) and Konstantin lost on the line with over 9k matched in running between 1.03 and 1.1, having gone off at 12/1. Grrr!
4 for Weds-
Bath 4.20 Iguacu morning prices
Bath 4.50 Highlife Dancer morning prices
Kempton 8.30 Maastrict 6 Boyles
Kempton 9.00 Operation Tracer morning prices
All 1 point win bets.
Iguacu (6) and Highlife Dancer (3) both won with Maastrict coming 4th and Operation Tracer 5th. 5 up on the day to stand at 167.08 returned from 147 staked.
Just one for Thurs-
Kempton 9.10 Indiana Guest morning prices
Today’s only selection couldn’t find anything more in closing stages and finished 5th.
After a quiet few days in terms of number of bets, 9 for Friday-
Brighton 2.40 Highlife Dancer 5 Bet365/BetVictor
Brighton 3.15 Tigertoo morning prices
Haydock 3.35 Escape To Glory e/w 12 PaddyP (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Chepstow 5.05 Greyemkay morning prices
Haydock 5.15 Cape Classic 6 PaddyP/BetVictor/Boyles/BetFred
Haydock 5.45 Blazing Field 8 PaddyP/Bet365/Boyles
Chepstow 6.05 Pandonica e/w 12 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Kempton 7.50 Meet Me Halfway 7 Bet365/BetVictor
Kempton 8.50 Silent Moment 9 Bet365
It’s already a profitable day but a couple still to run so will post details and figures tomorrow.
Meanwhile, it looks like some fascinating racing for Saturday and here are 10 selections-
(my first port of call is always oddschecker and then using the best BOG prices available, unless much better elsewhere. For this Saturday also worth noting that the place terms are different between bookies for a few races.)
Haydock 1.45 Havana Gold 3 Bet365/BetFred
Haydock 2.15 Bosun Breeze e/w 17 Bet365/BetFred/BetVictor/Boyles (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Haydock 2.50 Rockinate e/w 15 BetFred (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Kempton 3.05 Double Dealer e/w 15 WillHill (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Haydock 3.25 Hitchens e/w 15 BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Kempton 4.10 Boomshackerlacker e/w 17 betFred (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Kempton 4.45 Enery 5.5 Bet365/BetVictor
Haydock 5.05 Courtesy Call e/w 13 Bet365
Kempton 5.20 Idler 6.5 BetVictor
Thirsk 5.40 Shatter morning prices (win only)
Four winners today and 19 points profit. Courtesy Call returned 11, going off at 17, Idler 9.5 and Enery and Havana Gold kept their prices from last night.
Yesterday Escape To Glory won, seemingly from nowhere, returning 9.75, going off at 15. Pandonica went off at thirteen, returning 2 for coming a very close second. Meet me Halfway was also second and Cape Classic a close third. Greyemkay was a non-runner.
207.83 returned from 166 staked now.
2 for Sunday-
York 3.30 Jawhar 7 PaddyPower
York 4.35 Heerat 8 Bet365/PaddyP/BetFred
Well done today.I have followed you for a while now and am showing a healthy profit.I like the fact the selections are up the night before.
Keep up the good work!
Thank-you Systematic. Good to hear you’re following, so hope you were on today’s picks!
Two nicely ridden winners today by Paul Hanagan and a good way to end the week.
Overall +54.83 from 168 staked (ROI +32.64%)
Week Six +41.15 from 30 staked (ROI +137.16%)
Week Five -11.7 from 30 staked (ROI -39%)
Week Four +36.95 from 30 staked (ROI +123.17%)
Week Three -7.25 from 32 (ROI -22.66)
Week Two +3.68 from 38 (ROI +9.68%)
Week One -8 from 8 (ROI -100)
Taking away the 2 points bet on a double and 2 other ‘without favourite’ bets to compare with Betfair starting prices (4 staked 5 returned)-
using advised BOG method, 164 staked, 217.83 returned, +53.83, ROI +32.82%
Using Betfair starting prices 164 staked, (after 5% deduction for commission) 209.13 returned, +45.13, ROI +27.52%
Monday’s picks to follow at about 9 to 9.30 tonight.
Wow! A cracking couple of winners. Wish I had done the double as well, but that would just have been greedy!
Thanks again Mousecliff.
3 for Monday-
Bath 2.20 Sputnik Sweetheart 4.33 BetVictor
Bath 4.20 Stiff Upper Lip 3.13 BatVictor
Newcastle 5.00 Carries Magic e/w morning prices (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Sputnik won comfortably from the front, allowed to ease down towards the finish, but non-runner brought price down to 3.66. Stiff Upper perhaps didn’t get an early enough run on the winner, coming 2nd by half a length. Carrie’s Magic was priced at 11 at 9am then backed down to 4 by the off but faded and ended well beaten 7th from 14. +0.66 on the day then from 3 staked.
2 for Tuesday
Leicester 4.20 Scarlet Belle 13 Bet365
Leicester 5.20 King’s Masque morning prices
Both 1 point win bets.
A win and a 2nd place for today’s 2 choices in 2 very similar races. King’s Masque won by a length and a half whilst earlier Scarlet Belle was the chaser failing by 3/4 of a length. King’s Masque was 4.5 at 9am, hardly changed all day and went off at the same price. 2.5 points up on the day then.
Just one for Wednesday, 3.05 at Doncaster. A (straight) forecast bet.
1st Sole Power
2nd Valbchek
With Bet365 this is currently 14.49, with the others it’ll be settled to industry starting prices which I’d expect to be slightly less but not by much and in the interest of fairness that’s the price I’ll use for results. Any questions on this feel free to ask and I’ll check back later tonight.
Sole Power had an extra gear to win, but Valbchek couldn’t push on and was about 2 lengths short of 2nd, finishing 6th. That was the only one today, so figures now stand at 230.99 returned from 174 staked.
8 singles for Thursday and 1 point worth of doubles-
Doncaster 1.50 Sentaril 5 BetFred/WillHill
and Regal Realm e/w 12 Bet365/WillHill* (0.5 win, 0.5 place) Different place terms with some other bookies, 1/4 odds with those 2.
Doncaster 2.20 The Gold Cheongsam 4 WillHill
Epsom 3.05 Classic Falcon 2.75 BetVictor
Doncaster 4.05 My Kingdom e/w 17 bet365/PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Chepstow 5.00 Percythepinto morning prices (win)
Chepstow 5.30 Tijori e/w morning prices (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Wolves 5.45 Refreshestheparts morning prices (win)
Doubles- Classic Falcon coupled with Sentaril, The Gold Cheongasm, Percythepinto and Refreshestheparts. 1/4 point on each X 4 bets = 1 point staked. For simplicity I’ll use industry starting prices for results, but I recommend oddschecker for finding best odds and using BOG bookies as per normal which should outdo or at least equal the SP.
Friday’s picks will be up late on Thurs night.
The Gold Cheongsam won a close one. The price dropped to 3.75 between checking and posting last night so that’s the price I’ll use for results. Tijori was 13 this morning but dropped to 9 after non-runners, returning 1.5 for a solid third place. Down 3.75 on the day as nothing else registered.
Refreshestheparts was flying but had probably gone too early, lost the lead, tried to jump the side rail and trotted home 2nd. Percy made a poor start which cost him the race, finished strongly in third and is one not to be ruled out in future. My Kingdom (off at 21) was a head and a place away from some nice place money, Sentaril was prominent but disappointed in the clsoing furlong, Regal ran respectably without getting particularly close to challenging and Classic Falcon had a shocker- a poor start and showing nothing thereafter to justify his selection. A mixed bag.
5 singles for Friday, a Yankie and a quick explanation-
(As it’s a late night posting, I’ll take the best BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) prices at 9am.)
Doncaster 1.50 Sir Graham Wade (currently 3.25)
Doncaster 255 Certify (2.38)
Sandown 3.05 Shenas Dream (7)
Chester 3.20 Montaff e/w 0.5 win, 0.5 place (13)
Chester 4.25 Deia Sunrise (6.5)
Yankie – 11 bets X 0.1 points = 1.1 points (so if normal stake is £10, then £1 each, totalling £11). The 4 choices minus Montaff for the Yankie (11 bets are 6 doubles, 4 trebles and a fourfold). As before, with doubles, I’ll use the Industry starting prices for results.
There have been a few different bets this week but it is a coincedence and down to Doncaster and some fancied lowish odds choices rather than a change of direction- the next one might be tomorrow or in a month’s time but either way will be a very small percentage of the bets staked and not something I’d just throw out there.
When there are a couple of choices with great chances, but lowish odds, there’s the chance of getting more out of them and finding a big one without too much risk if the others oblige! In this case, if 2 come in then we’re looking at a small profit or most of stake back, depending on which ones. Certify has great credentials and the other 3 I’ve backed and followed previously in this competion and Sir Graham Wade was very impressive under Fallon at Haydock recently. (If all 4 come in then it’s a big return of 70-80 points. If all flop then a loss of 1.1, obviously.)
Good luck to whatever you’re following on Friday. Saturday’s should be up at 9ish or a bit earlier on Friday night.
Sir Graham Wade and Certify both had narrow victories, having been 3.5 and 2.62 at 9am this morning with WillHill. Shenas Dream was a non-runner, Deia Sunrise, backed in-running at 1.1, lost in a photo, going off at 8 and Montaff didn’t get into at any stage.
Without Shenas Dream the Yankie bets involving her changed with doubles becoming singles, trebles becoming doubles and the fourfold a treble. Using starting prices it returned 1.58, but being the better side of the photo would have returned an additional 21.36 points (8 normal single bet and 13.36 on the Yankie).
Up 2.6 on the day overall. 243.94 returned from 188.1 staked, up 55.84.
3 for Saturday-
Chester 2.40 Modun 2.5 BetFred
Doncaster 3.40 Thought Worthy 5.5 Boylesports (WITHOUT THE FAVOURITE, CAMELOT)
Newcastle 4.55 Mistress of Rome morning prices (win)
Didn’t spot the non-runners deduction in Certify’s win bringing the price down to 2.22 for the single, so figures should have been 2.2 up on day and up 55.44 overall.
Slightly off-topic, but if you’re quick William Hill have a great promo on this morning- Camelot in the St. Ledger, Donc 3.40 this afternoon @ evens up to £25. You can either let this run for a great value bet, or lay off on Betfair (currently lay odds 1.45) to either make it a no lose bet or guarnatee a profit either way.
Ladbrokes also offer a free bet if Camelot loses of up to £20. So if you back him with £20 @ 1.4 (their odds) and he wins you win £8, if not that £20 becomes a free bet. Not as good but may offer some appeal.
Mistress of Rome was a non-runner and the other two failed to deliver, so 0 from 2 today.
2 for Sunday.
Bath 4.10 King’s Masque 5 Bet365
Bath 5.40 Waspy morning prices
5 for Monday-
Mussel 3.40 The Bells O Peover 5 Bet365
Brighton 3.50 Lisselan Pleasure morning prices
Brighton 4.50 Inidana Guest 8.5 PaddyPower
Brighton 5.20 Imaginary Diva 7 Bet365
Wolves 5.30 AstroScarlet e/w morning prices (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Will update today and figures in a bit.
Today, Robert Williams won for a third time on King’s Masque, cruising home with plenty to spare. The price dropped from 5 to 4.5 forty minutes after posting, but as it was posted slightly earlier than usual and the price continued to fall, I’ll use 4.5 for the results. It looked like it was going to be a pair of winers as Waspy, off at 5.5, was travelling with a purpose from the back of the field and traded at 1.2 in-running, but First Glance fought well to hold on. 2.5 up on the day, then.
A small profit from the week. Perhaps a bit of misfortune in the first Yankie of the competion that after the first 2 legs had won, the third was a non-runner and the 4th lost in a photo, which could have resulted in a nice pay-out, rather than the tiny profit it generated. In summary, a steady but not spectacular week.
Week 7
24.1 staked, 25.21 returned, +1.11 profit.
Overall
192.1 Staked, 248.04 returned, profit of 55.94, ROI +29.12%
To £10 level stakes, a profit of £559.40.
Quick recap-
Bets placed night before, normally around 9pm.
1 point win bets unless stated otherwise.
I recommend using Best Odds Guaranteed bookies (BOG) so if price drifts you get that price. (Although in some cases using Betfair starting prices you’ll get better odds, if price contracts that’s not the case and overall, by getting early BOG prices it’s more profitable in the long-term.)
BOG bookies are Bet365, PaddyPower, BetVictor, WilliamHill, BetFred, BoyleSports and BetInternet, plus Ladbrokes but only after 10am for them.
If ‘morning prices’ I’ll use best BOG price at 9am if 3 or more have priced, which is normally the case.
Any questions, please feel free to ask away.
Monday’s picks in post above.
Hi Mousecliff
Well done a nice proffit to date, and great that you post your selections the night before, just the job for a working fellow like me.
Would it be possible for you to pick out a nap bet from your selections? and if so post them.
Thanks in antisipation.
Basil
Hi Basil,
Thanks for your comments- they are appreciated.
Regarding picking a NAP, I can add a note when a selection particularly stands out. But, if you were thinking of having one bet a day, I’d rather encourage the splitting of that stake across the selections. I’ve every faith that the profits can continue, but over a large number of bets having an edge for steady progress.
I know having a NAP or extra stake works for some, and works very well, but each is different and I don’t think it would for me so much.
Obviously the lower odds picks have the bigger likelyhood of winning- but are not necessarily the most profitable (eg you’d need to win 42% @ 2/1 to make a 25+% profit, but 16% win rate @ 7/1)- so will be the least volatile.
There’s been a high strike-rate of placed finishers (I’ll try and get some stats up on this when I can) so backing all each-way would reduce losing days, but would also reduce the overall profits.
Hope that helps and sorry it’s not quite the answer. Any thoughts/questions on that then please let me know.
Cheers,
Mousecliff.
A blank on the day. The Bells O Peover could/should have won leading to close to the line and trading in-running at 1.15. That was as close as it got though and disappointing runs thereafter.
Four for Tuesday-
Thirsk 3.40 Green Park e/w 17 PaddyPower (0.5 win, 0.5 place, 4 places paid)
Thirsk 4.40 Key Gold 6.5 Boyles, PaddyP, WillHill, BetVictor
Yarmouth 5.00 Expert Fighter 9 All BOGs
Yarmouth 5.30 Maastrict 7.5 WillHill, Boyles
A pretty similar day to yesterday with most having chances but failing to improve. At these odds there will be losing days but it only takes a couple of winners to overcome these and as long as the stakes are kept steady and the bank is split enough to not panic after a few bad results then in the long-term all should be well and that bank can grow. (I’d say, for these tips, 1% of bank per point is probably overly cautious, 4% too much, 2% or possibly 2.5% seems about right to me, but it’s up to the individual.)
Slightly shorter odds generally for Weds and I think some strong chances, so another multiple as well.
Singles (all 1 point win bets)-
Yarmouth 3.50 Anjaz 4.33 BetVictor (4 other BOGs,4.5 with Ladbrokes)
Yarmouth 4.20 Shena’s Dream 4 Bet365/PaddyPower
Sandown 4.35 Royal Empire 3 PaddyPower (2.88 WillHill)
Sandown 5.05 Forgive 9 Bet365 (8 BetVictor)
Kempton 6.15 Stiff Upper Lip morning prices (only B365 up now @ 4)
Kempton 9.15 Delft morning prices (B365 only price now @ 5 which is probably worth taking)
Also throwing a point to a Super Yankie (or Canadian as called in some places). Not including Forgive, but with the other 5 in doubles, trebles, fourfolds and a fivefold. 26 bets X 0.04 points each, so 1.04 points staked in total (or if £10 normal stake then 26 X 40pence + £10.40, for example). Nothing silly with the stake and if just 2 come in then most of stake will be returned and if more than that then looking at a nice profit.
Only Bet365 have prices on all up now, I’d recommend either taking that or checking oddschecker in the morning. For simplicity/transparency I’ll use starting prices for results. Any questions on this (or anything else) please feel free to ask.
As Delft runs at 9.15, update and Thursday’s picks will be shortly afterwards.
26 X 40pence + £10.40
sorry, that should be = £10.40
6 selections- 4 winners, a 2nd and a 3rd and a profit of 18.36 points on the day. Shena’s was 4 last night, off at 3.75, Forgive slight non-runner deduction down to 8.2, Stiff Upper won @ 4 and Delft has just won, 4.5 this morning and off at the same having been a touch higher most of the day. 4.7 retuned for the Super Yankie, though this would have been more if backed earlier and if I’d included Forgive instead of one or the other 2 then would have been quite juicy. Oh well, still a really good day.
+65.30 points now at an ROI of +31.37%
4 for Thursday-
Yarmouth 3.20 Spithead morning prices
Yarmouth 4.50 Dutch Diamond 8 Bet365
Kempton 5.40 Tigertoo morning prices
Pontefract 6.00 Saslong e/w 13 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Spithead was a narrow second, but the other three failed to get close.
Now +61.30 overall and +5.36 on the week, despite a disappointing day.
4 for Friday
Newbury 2.30 Little Dutch Girl 8.5 BetVictor (8 all other BOGs)
Ayr 4.35 Asker 7 Bet365
Newbury 4.50 Van Ellis 5.5 Bet365/Boyles/WillHill/BetVictor
Wolves 7.30 Loyal N Trusted morning prices
Just a quick note on the tip for Ayr-
the odds dropped to 5 a few minutes after posting which I’ll use for results for fairness (you can trace odds history for the day by clicking on horse’s name on oddschecker, btw).
Marcus Tregoning’s charges have a good record late in the season, especially over longer distances. Jockey Graham Lee has impressed since switching from National Hunt this season and I’ve been looking to have him on board for a while. Ayr was cancelled due to rain today but hopefully will go ahead tomorrow. If so, this should suit as Asker has won twice on heavy ground and another over 16f, this race’s distance, from his four races. Even after early odds change, I’d still recommend this as a bet, using Best Odds bookies, as usual, as this is one which may well change either way if significant tipping in the morning.
Staying at level stakes is my recommendation- just clarifying this is still worth backing and acknowledging odds change.
Little Dutch was a non-runner, Loyal came 2nd, Asker 3rd and Van Ellis 7th.
+58.3 from 215.14 staked overall now.
7 for Saturday and another Yankie. Singles-
Catterick 2.30 Ctappers morning prices
*Newmarket 3.20 Surprise Moment 3 PaddyPower
Ayr 3.30 Sholaan e/w 15 WillHill 0.5 win, 0.5 place, 5 places paid)
*Newmarket 4.30 Ibtahaj 4 PaddyPower
Catterick 4.50 Highlife Dancer morning prices
*Wolves 6.20 Theresnoneedforthat morning prices
*Wolves 8.50 Refreshestheparts morning prices
Those with an * for Yankie- doubles, trebs and a fourfold. 11 bets X 0.1 = 1.1 points. As normal I’ll use industry SP but recommend finding best BOG in morning.
Two winners and some place money today for a small profit of 1.18 points. Surprise Moment won, going off at 3.25 and Theresnoneedfordat was 2.88 at 9am and off at evens. Sholaan went off at 17, returning 2.5 points for a place. Refreshestheparts was 2nd, Ibtahaj 3d, Ctappers 4th and Highlife Dancer 9th. Using SP for the Yankie retuned 0.65
3 for Sunday-
Hamilton 3.50 Vital Calling 9 Bet365
Hamilton 4.20 Shesastar 8 BetFred, PaddyPower, WillHill, BetVictor
Hamilton 5.20 Red Orator e/w 13 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Red Orator returned 1.48 for finishing 2nd after non-runners had brought price down. Shesastar came 4th, Vital Calling 8th. Down 1.52 on the day.
Week 8
34.14 staked, 36.14 returned. Profit of exactly 2 points @ ROI +5.86%.
Various Phase 1 Stats:
Staked 226.24
Returned 284.20
Profit 57.96
ROI + 25.62%
Single Win only bets
Staked 175
Returned using Best Odds Guaranteed as advised 227.69
Profit 52.69
ROI +30.11%
Returned using Betfair Starting Prices (after 5% deduction) 211.74
Profit 36.74
ROI +20.99%
Wins 44
2nds 29
3rds 29
Top 3 Finishers 102 (58.29%)
Each-way bets
Staked 41
Returned using Best Odds Guaranteed 44.58
Profit 3.58
ROI +8.73%
Returned using Betfair Starting Prices (after 5% deduction) 44.85
Profit 3.85
ROI +9.39%
3 wins, 7 placed.
‘Other’ Bets (doubles, Yankies, Super Yankies, Without Favourite, Forecast)
Staked 10.24
Returned to Industry SP 11.93
Profit 1.69
ROI +16.50%
Thanks to anyone who has followed this and particularly if you’ve voted. Please feel free to ask anything or make any comments. (It can feel a bit of a lonely process at times.)
I hope this is easy to follow- the selections are up the night before at 9pm and over 95% are singles. If anything isn’t clear or could be simplified please let me know. I’ll always consider suggestions and if I believe it’ll be of benefit in ease of following or profits will introduce them.
If you have followed these tips so far then I hope you’ve found them profitable and enjoyable.
Regards,
Mousecliff
Hi Mousecliff
Sorry to read you’re feeling a little lonely. I for one certainly appreciate all you are doing on here and you have my vote.
No suggestions for improvements, I’m happy as it is, particularly like you posting the evening before.
Keep up the good work and all the best with the competition.
Spireite
Cheers Spireite- you first line did make me chuckle! To know it’s being followed does help keep motivated and working hard. Thanks.
2 for Monday
Leicester 3.00 Meet Me Halfway morning prices (7 with Bet365 only price available now)
Kempton 5.20 Copperwood 5 WillHill/BetVictor (4.5 Bet365/Boyles)
Meet Me Halfway was a non-runner, Copperwood came in 4th after having every chance and can have no excuses for fading in the final furlong.
5 singles (1 point win bets) for Tuesday and a Super Yankie.
Beverley 2.10 Finity Run morning prices
Beverley 3.10 Es Que Love 3.13 BetVictor (3 WillHill)
Folkstone 3.30 Centrifugal 3.5 PaddyPower, WillHill, BetVictor, Boyles
Folkestone 4.00 Authenitication morning prices
Beverley 4.40 Oddysey 4.5 PaddyPower
All 5 in a Super Yankie. 26 bets x 0.04 points = 1.04 points. For this I’ll use Industry Starting Prices for results for transparency, but advise beating that by using a BOG- Bet365, PaddyP, WillHill, BetFred, Betvictor, Boyles, BetInternet (plus Ladbrokes after 10am)- in the morning (or tonight using SP for Authentication and Finity Run and the early prices for the others).
Hi Mousecliff
like the results but more importatntly the stategy you use.
Where are your selections posted and when please?
I receive the Betting Rant emails and am registered user but haven’t seen any of your selections.
I would like to start following your advise as I have been using similar selection process but my results have been hit a miss. I have tried to limit losses by using e/w patents and find this keeps me having some returns but without overall profit. Or maybe its a banking strategy i lack for steady growth of ROI
Please can you add me to your selections list or advise how you distribute your selections. I make my selections the night before and will be keen to see if your selections are in any way similar and perhaps try understand where they differ.
Hope to get on board with you and start steady ROI
Watsham
Hello watsham,
Hope you don’t mind me answering your question. Mousecliff posts his selections on this very page,Tuesdays selections are in the post directly above yours and he posts them the evening before racing normally around 9pm
All you have to do is bookmark this page and check back whenever is convenient as the selections won’t be in the betting rant emails.
Hope that helps
Spireite
Good luck to Myk and Brian in the future- I look forward to reading that NH preview.
I’m running a bit late today so will update today and reply to the messages above in a bit.
3 for Weds meanwhile-
Goodwood 4.15 Enery 5.5 Bet365/PaddyPower/WillHill
Kempton 6.20 Asatir 6 PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor
Kempton 8.20 Rasheed 13 e/w Bet365/Boyles/WillHill/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Two winners today and a non-runner. Finity Run was 4 all day until about an hour before running, going off at 3.5 and Authentication was 2.38 with BetFred at 9 am, but non-runners brought this down to 2.1 and went off at 1.91. Oddysey didn’t run, Es Que Love came a disappointing 6th and Centrifugal 4th, both in small fields.
With the Super Yankie affected by Oddysey- some trebles becoming doubles, doubles to singles- this returned 0.75 using SP.
Overall 6.85 returned from 5.04 staked.
Hello Watsham and Spireite,
Spireite- thanks for answering that. This might sound daft, but I hadn’t bookmarked this page, read that and thought ‘oh, yeah, I should do that!’
Watsham- yeah selections posted here each day normally at 9pm. I’ll try and warn any days when it’ll be earlier or later but most are then and always the day before.
Regarding banking, I recommend a 50 point bank. Some might see this as cautious and it’s an individual’s choice and you should be fine with a lot less, but for me this avoids over-reacting to any losing runs and allows patience and steady growth. Personally I want the vast majority of stake to be on singles as this is the most stable return if the selections have an edge whereas multiples can be more lucrative but more of a roller-coaster ride.
Yes, be interesting to see if there are similarities in selections. A lot of info and analysis goes into the mix so will see if the same things are coming out!
cheers,
Mousecliff
Enery was a non-runner and the other 2 selections were well positioned but were outrun in the final furlong. Still 6.85 returned this week then, now with 8.04 staked.
5 for Thursday and with three of them lowish priced favourites I see little reason not to have another Super Yankie as well-
Newmarket 3.10 Set to Music 8 BetVictor (7.5 other BOGs)
Newmarket 3.40 Havana Gold 2.2 Bet365/BetFred/WillHill
Newmarket 4.15 Cavalyman 3.25 WillHill
Newmarket 4.50 Hefner 6 WillHill/Boyles
Wolves 6.15 Theresnoneedfordat morning prices
Super Yankie- all 5. 26 bets X 0.04 points = 1.04 points staked.
Four are priced up across the board. WillHill are best priced so will go with them plus SP for Theresnoneedfordat.
Only low-priced Havana Gold won today, with Theresnoneed and Cavalyman coming second, though I haven’t watched them back yet to review. 2.2 returned, down 3.84 on the day.
Four for Friday at the moment but will post again at half ten as there may be one or two more-
Haydock 2.00 Pallasator 3.25 Bet365/PaddyPower/BetVictor
Newmarket 2.20 Joviality 6 Bet365/PaddyPower/BetVictor/WillHill/BetFred
Wolves 5.45 Medan morning prices
Wolves 6.15 Gin Twist morning prices
2 more to add for Friday-
Newmarket 1.45 Thistle Bird 4 Bet365/PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor/Boyles
Newmarket 4.35 Henry Allington 9 e/w Bet365/PaddyPower (0.5 win, 0.5 place) These 2 pay down to 5 places. Same price elsewhere but only down to 4 places.
I have a confession to make. The bad run over the last two or three days is entirely down to me. Over the last six months I have concentrated on a tweaked version of Lazy Dogs, a Matt Houghton product and whilst it’s been a bit up and down I was still persevering with it. However, over the last two weeks my luck has completely gone down the toilet and I could have laid a three legged, blind chihuahua and it would have won the Greyhound Derby. So I decided to try three of the systems here, this being one of them. The results have continued to be apalling and I take full responsibility for them. I am withdrawing so that I don’t contaminate this site any further and I would now go out and shoot myself if I could afford a gun. Hope the luck changes now.
Two winners today. Henry Allingham won, backed e/w so returned 6 and Pallasator went off at 3.75. Annoyingly, Gin Twist got stuck in the stalls and over 5f was never going to get back into it and Thistle Bird left it too let, finishing 2nd. 9.75 returned, so +3.75 on the day.
Tomorrow is a tough one generally and as it’s a weekend think it best to step away, have another look in the morning and post again. There are 2 for now and will post again 1.30 to 2pm for any more for late afternoon and the evening meeting.
Newmarket 1.55 Fantastic Moon 4 BetFred/PaddyPower/WillHill
Newmarket 4.50 Cape Classic 7 PaddyPower/WillHill
Next post 1.30 to 2pm Saturday.
Hello Mousecliff,
Loving following your tips and thanks for more profit today. Don’t understand why you didn’t get more votes last time, personally I don’t see the attraction of betting a string of odds on football bets, especially with a loss retrievel staking plan, or laying horses but each to his/her own.
I’m probably a bit of an old f**t but give me level stake win bets and the odd multiples any day.
Best of luck tomorrow and of course the rest of the competition.
Spireite
I concur
Cheers Guys,
All being well, Spireite, hoping the support will follow the longer the positive results continue. As you say, each to their own regarding what systems/services to follow and can see that having a higher percentage of winning bets with laying or odds on backing appeals to many. Think it’s worked really well having a variety of types of tips in this comp and the profits across the board have been very good. Whichever way, it’s that figure in the profit column which is key and it’s going to be a fascinating few months ahead, I think!
Good afternoon to PaganP too!
Fantastic Moon is about to run…
Cape Classic has been heavily backed- stayed at odds of 7 until 8am this morning but is now down to 4, which bodes well.
2 to add for tonight-
Wolves 8.50 Dance for Livvy 15 e/e Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Wolves 9.20 Saharia 6 bet365/WillHill/BetVictor
As Saharia runs at 9.20, I’ll post Sunday’s picks just after at half-nine.
Saharia has just won with a cracking late run, returning 6 and making a 2 point profit on the day and back into a small profit on the week. Earlier both Fantastic Moon and Cape Classic were surprisingly outpaced and Dance for Livvy looked rusty and didn’t get into it an any stage.
3 for Sunday-
Musselburgh 1.30 The Baronet 2.75 Bet365/PaddyPower
Epsom 2.15 Beedee 4.5 PaddyPower
Musselburgh 5.15 Here Now And Why e/w morning prices (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
The Baronet won with a strong run. Beedee took a while to change gears but finished impressively, not quite making it by a neck, and will be one to keep on side. Here Now And Why was more Why than here or now, despite being heavily backed into joint favouritism, and not in the picture at any stage. 2.75 pts returned from 3 staked today.
A fairly unexciting week though a 4th in sucession in profit, but by such a small amount will hope for better in the coming week.
This week-
27.08 staked, 27.55 returned, up 0.47 points, ROI +1.74%
Overall-
Staked 253.32
Returned 311.65
Profit 58.43
ROI +23.07%
Four for Monday-
Bath 2.20 Stiff Upper Lip 3.75 PaddyPower/BetVictor
Bath 3.20 James Pollard e/w 17 PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Bath 3.50 Dynamic Duo 5.5 Bet365/PaddyPower/Boyles
Bath 5.20 Wayne Manor 8 PaddyPower
how did you find time to pick these pal? Were you not watching the golf??!!
A couple of winners in there i reckon
cheers
Marc
Don’t worry about any profit, it’s the losses which give you nightmares!
As a matter of interest would you do any multiple bets on you selections?
Today suggests an e.w. yankee might be fun?
Thanks for the good choices though
Roger
Hi Roger,
I agree with the first sentiment- reminds me of reading a thought somewhere that working on improving ROI by removing the worst performing bets being as worthwhile an investment of time as working on improving the best ones. (Or something along those lines.)
Certainly wouldn’t argue against an e.w. yankie here, but the amendment I’d suggest if you do, would be to omit James Pollock as that’s a bit of a long-shot- a decent value bet I feel for a single, but don’t think I’d risk in a multiple. I was tempted by Caterina in the same race, but I didn’t think offered value as a single but would expect to be close, especially as Richard Hughes chose her above the other Hannon horse in this one so you might consider that as a safer option. (Cue Sod’s Law to now make an appearance…)
Roger,
Of course Sod’s Law did appear and the other horse mentioned that Hughes chose not to ride won and Caterina seemed to have a problem and was eased home through the final couple of furlongs, a long way behind having been reasonably placed. (James Pollard wasn’t too far from the places but didn’t really look like landing a blow.)
Wayne Manor and Stiff Upper Lip were both third and Dynamic Duo a non-runner (so if you did go for an e/w yankie think you’d have got about half stake back?)
Yep agree that multiples are the most fun but think the most enjoyment is making a decent profit and I wouldn’t want to risk too much of the profit the singles make on them. Was a bit rushed earlier but a better answer would have been that generally I’d be in favour if stakes are relatively small part of bank, not too speculative (I’m unlikely to put any I advise as e/w single in a e/w multiple) and not in large fields for e/w multiples. Appreciate the question and I’ll try and add a note if I think it might be suitable or not.
Bruno/Marc,
Missed the golf, didn’t pick any winners and realised I was going through the cards with X Factor on in background. A triple apology!
3 for Tuesday-
Wolves 3.00 Clear Praise 5 Bet365/PaddyPower/Boyles/WillHill
Ayr 3.40 Soverign Street 3 Bet365/PaddyPower/Boyles
Wolves 4.00 Blue Dune morning prices
My e.w. are usually 50p for a bit of fun but can give a give a great payout if three at decent odds come up. Pays for a bottle of wine (or four)
anyone watch Blue Dune? Cannot believe it lost! traded at 1.07 in the run in!!
i seemed to have joined this just we hit a bad run!! it will turn i know
Bruno, I feel your pain! (A) I couldn’t believe Blue Dune either. (B) I decided to join in with this service & the Karlos football one as well. Since I joined, it looks like both have gone down the proverbial.
…don’t think either of us ought to be revealing our home addresses to Mousecliff, eh Bruno! (…or to Karlos in my case!)
Good job betting is a “long run” thing isn’t it?
It will turn around. Confident in the main man
Ditto Bruno and Pete. Talk about going full tilt at the wrong time but it’s just a reminder that this isn’t a easy game.Keep the faith.
Hi Guys,
Good to hear from you all, albeit after a couple of down days- sorry about that. Will try to bounce back tomorrow. It happens and will do again especially with the average odds of these bets generally about 5-6 ish. Just a quick reply as I need to go deeper into tomorrow’s cards so will copy and paste my posts from a couple of weeks ago after the last bad poor few days as a hope booster:
‘A pretty similar day to yesterday with most having chances but failing to improve. At these odds there will be losing days but it only takes a couple of winners to overcome these and as long as the stakes are kept steady and the bank is split enough to not panic after a few bad results then in the long-term all should be well and that bank can grow. (I’d say, for these tips, 1% of bank per point is probably overly cautious, 4% too much, 2% or possibly 2.5% seems about right to me, but it’s up to the individual.)’
The following days results:
’6 selections- 4 winners, a 2nd and a 3rd and a profit of 18.36 points on the day.’
Can’t promise, obviously, but hang in there! Back at 9ish (and yes watching Blue Dune lose like that was… ah, words fail me!)
A blank on the day from the three, though Blue Dune went early, gained what seemed a winning lead only to agonisingly be pipped at the last stride. I haven’t watched the other two yet but it seems more was expected.
6 singles for Weds and another Super Yankie appeals (see below)-
Salisbury 3.00 Waspy e/w Morning prices (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Salisbury 5.10 Cellist 9.5 BetVictor (9 Bet365)
Kempton 6.40 Mount Mayday morning prices (currently 4.5 Bet365)
Kempton 7.10 Dana’s Present morning prices (currently 3.5 Bet365)
Kempton 7.40 I’m Back 4 PaddyPower/BetVictor (3.75 Bet365)
Kempton 8.10 Ukranium 3.75 PaddyPower 3.75 (3.5 Bet365)
There’ve been about half a dozen multiples sprinkled in over the weeks, and here’s a chance for another. For the Super Yankie (win only advised) 5 above without Waspy. 26 bets X 0.04 points =1.04 staked. For simplicity I’ll use the current Bet365 prices though I’d expect a better overall price to be available in the morning. Needing 2 to come in to get most of stake back/make small profit it’s a fairly low risk investment for the chance of a decent return.
A small profit on the day with Dana’s Present and I’m Back winning comfortably. Dana’s Present was priced at 3 (decimal odds) at 9am with Bet365. Almost a good day with Ukranian, going off at 5, just losing in 2nd, after a tense and decent battle, by a head. Waspy was a non-runner. Cellist finished fourth and Mount Mayday fifth after both failed to push on.
For the Super Yankie, 0.53 was returned. Overall, +1.49 on the day, +53.86 in this competition.
3 for Thursday-
Warwick 2.40 Secretinthepark 7 Bet365/PaddyPower
Southwell 4.00 Girl in the Park 3.75 PaddyPower (3.5 Bet365)
Wolves 8.40 Just Lille morning prices
that should be Girl At The Sands, btw.
Secretinthepark was a non-runner. Girl At The Sands didn’t get into a challenging position and didn’t pick up, whilst Just Lille faded away from the front, finishing a poor 4th. 2 down on the day then.
5 singles for Friday-
Ascot 2.55 Jake’s Destiny 6 Bet365 (5.5 all other BOGs)
Ascot 4.05 Sir Graham Wade 3 BetFred (2.75 all other BOGs)
Ascot 4.40 Red Orator 6 PaddyPower (5.5 all other BOGs)
Wolves 6.15 Noverre To Go morning prices
Wolves 9.15 Siouxperhero 5.5 Bet365
Will post tomorrow’s picks for Saturday after the last race at about half nine.
Great start to the day. Let’s have a good run
Great run by Red Orator . Led from the front
Should have won the 4th too. Noverre ‘s jockey left it too late just
Yes that was a nice win from Red Orator, Bruno. Joe Fanning certainly likes his front-running!
One left to go…
After a few mixed performances, a pretty steady day.
A bold run from Jake’s Destiny started things off well, staying on strongly under fierce competition. Sir Graham Wade finished second having been sandwiched in the run-in. It could well be that he just lost to the better run on the day, but given the nature of recent victories, digging in deep when it seemed all was lost, when Kieron Fallon had to hold him back today, losing much momentum, it may also have been one that got away. Red Orator won from the front, staying well for a second win of the day. Noverre To Go became stuck in traffic before finishing strongly, going down by a neck. Siouxpehero tried to stay in contention, but perhaps struggled for the extra furlong asked of him.
Both Jake’s Destiny and Red Orator were affected by small rule 4 deductions for non-runners bringing their prices down to 5.5 and 5.75 respectively. 11.25 retuned on the day, so up 6.25.
Tomorrow is another Saturday full of interest. So, here are 6 for now and I’ll top this up tomorrow at midday.
Newmarket 2.15 The Gold Chegonasm 5 Bet365/Boyles/PaddyPower/BetVictor
Newmarket 2.50 Havana Gold 3.25 Bet365/PaddyPower
Redcar 3.10 Fulbright 4 Bet365/BetVictor
Ascot 3.35 Imperial Guest e/w 15 Bet365/Paddypower/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
and Cape Classic 15 e/w Bet365/Paddypower/BetVictor/BetFred/WillHill/Boyles (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Newmarket 5.00 Artistic Jewel e/w 13 BetFred (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
More to add 12:00 Saturday.
Artistic Jewel is a non-runner, but 4 to add-
Newmarket 3.20 Prussian 7.5 Bet365/BetVictor
and Stature e/w 13 Bet365/Boyles/Ladbrokes/WillHill/BetVictor
Wolves 7.50 Rhossili Bay 4.5 All BOGs
Wolves 8.20 Progenitor 3.75 Bet365/PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor
And let’s have another low risk Super Yankie using The Gold Chegonasm, Havana Gold, Fulbright, Rhossilli and Progenitor.
Usual stuff- 26 bets X 0.04 = 1.04 staked.
Will use BetVictor current odds 5.5, 2.62, 3.13, 4.5, 3.75
Bet365 is only behind on Fulbright at 3 rather than 3.13.
10.04 staked on the day.
NO BETS FOR SUNDAY! Just spotted the absence of any Flat or All-Weather racing in the UK tomorrow, so the next picks will be Sunday night for Monday. Will update results before then, though.
A few stats, bits and pieces and notes on consistency.
With no bets tomorrow it’s a good time to have a closer look at things as I want anyone following these tips to be armed with as much information as possible, warts and all.
Going through the daily totals, the biggest dip was back in August with a drop of 15.87 points from the 9th to 21st. In that time the ‘win’ bets (as oppossed to e/w) had 28 from 49 in the top 3 finishers (57%) but just not enough winners. With a decent percentage in the reckoning that wasn’t a particular worry. The e/w bets though were struggling and a cause of loss so have been tightened up. These are the high odds bets so are always going to be more inconsistent, but were proving a weakness.
The peak/highest daily total was two and a bit weeks ago on 19th Sept of +65.30 points. It’s dipped again by 13.42 to currently stand at +51.88 since then. In this time 32 of 55 win bets have been in top 3 (58% the same as my overall average). With almost a third of the losing bets finishing second, many at decent odds and by small margins, on close inspection I don’t see a reason to panic or change things.
To illustrate, here are the results for the win bets this week, with an ‘x’ for outside top 3-
3,3,x,x,2,x,x,1,1,2,x,x,1,2,1,2,x,3,2,x,2,3,1 (15 in top 3, 8 outside top 3.) Pretty solid stuff if frustrating that so many were close seconds, but reassuring that the majority are going close.
Since tightening up on the selections of long-odds e/w bets they have improved after the early losing run, so for the time being will moniter how they go, aware that they will be more unpredictable as dictated by their odds.
Regarding consecutive losing bets, my longest so far is 12 but over days that started and ended with winners (priced @ 5 and 6), so may have been missed (average odds of 8.69 which is higher than my normal average). The dips and peaks mentioned earlier are the highs and lows over time rather than consecutive runs.
With a high number placing, I’ve again looked at the thought of backing more each-way. If all had been backed 1 point win and 1 point each-way, then profits would be 10 to 15 points higher (haven’t completed my stats update on this) but with a lower overall ROI and by doubling the stake would have to increase size of bank, I feel, so is not worthwhile. If the win bets had been 0.5 win and 0.5 place this would have reduced the profits.
I advise a bank of 50 points and if you followed each bet starting on 9th Aug or 19th Sept you would have had an initial downswing. For the former if you’d persevered you’d now have over doubled your bank and I’m hoping the same will apply to the latter. As it is, the downswing has been less than a third of the bank.
It’d be nice if horses could provide evenly spaced out wins. For the win bets I win about 1 in 4. It’d be great if that was win 1, lose 3, win 1, lose 3 and so on, but it’s not how it works so there will be ups and downs. Having looked deeper to see if the results are generally below par in any area or if any specific odds ranges are showing a weakness, it’s only highlighted to moniter the bets in double figures.
If there’re any aspects which leave you wondering or have any thoughts then please let me know and I’ll respond. The one thing I would request though is to leave them on this thread so that I can respond.
Thanks to those who’ve supported and commented.
Best Wishes,
Mousecliff
Overall
Staked 282.40
Returned 334.18
Profit 51.78
ROI +18.34%
Week 10
Staked 29.08
Returned 22.53
Profit/Loss -6.55
ROI -22.52%
Phase 2 so far (wks 9 & 10)
Staked 56.16
Returned 50.08
Profit/Loss -6.08
ROI -10.83%
Despite Progenitor winning on Saturday it was a negative day, wiping out Friday’s profit and making it a losing week overall. Havana Gold and Prussian were close 2nds, trading in-running at 1.02 and 1.51 respectively. The Gold Chegonasm and Rhossili Bay both came third but Fulbright and the e/w picks failed to get particularly close.
5 for Monday-
Pontefract 3.10 Fire Ship 4.33 WillHill (4 other BOGs)
Wolves 3.30 Maltease Ah morning prices
Pontefract 4.10 Malford Missile morning prices
Wolves 4.30 Delft 3.75 WillHill (3.5 other BOGs)
Windsor 4.50 Ancient Greece 8 Bet365 (7 other BOGs)
Hi Mousecliff
Just though I’d send a quick message of encouragement as you don’t seem to get much considering your results. I have been following other tipsters from the T factor who have been going through a losing streak, but have noticed that your were top of the table last week and again this week so Well done. I’ve decided to jump ship and start following you hope this is not a bad omen ha ! Keep up the good work and you will certainly secure my vote. Another good profitable day today I know this wont happen every day so I’m under no false elusions! Just a quick question is this your full time occupation or is this just a side line that you obviously enjoy ?
Kindest Regards
Paul Y
Cheers Paul and welcome aboard. Wrote a fair bit explaining how it’s been going and what to expect a couple of posts ago on Saturday which might be helpful. No, it’s not my full-time occupation but I’d like it to be. Other than that, tips up at 9pm the night before and anything else, ask away. MC
Hi Mousecliff, I am still following and voted for you. Keep up the good work. Other threads may get more feedback but in the final analysis overall performance is what will count and you are right up there so far.
Ah Systematic, good to hear you’re still following- thank-you!
Still going through tomorrow’s so will be a little late at about half-nine.
Hi Mousecliff,been following you for the past 2 weeks now and will defo vote for you,the results have been impressive,keep up the good work.
Two winners today with Fire Ship (4) starting things nicely with a comfortable win, moving on when needed and Marford Missile (3.75) beating the other horses (and an escaped small dog, which finished last) from the front and holding on pretty well. Ancient Greece and Maltease Ah ran respeectably but finally finished out of the reckoning, beaten in a not distant 6th and 4th. Delft was third though more was expected from the favourite. Up 2.75 on the day.
A surprisingly busy Tuesday and mainly low odds picks. There may have been more multiples lately than I was expecting and perhaps should have chosen but this is a decent set, I think/hope, especially with three we’ve been on recently. Singles-
Leicester 3.40 Ennistown morning prices
Catterick 4.00 Blue Dune morning prices
Catterick 4.30 Authentication 4 Bet365/PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor
Wolves 5.30 Dana’s Present morning prices
Leicester 5.40 Greyemkay e/w morning prices (0.5 win, 0.5 place, 4 places paid)
Wolves 7.30 Daaree 3.5 Bet365 (3.25 PaddyPower/BetVictor)
+ a Super Yankie with the above without Greyemkay. 26 bets x 0.04 points = 1.04 staked. For simplicity I’ll use Bet365 current prices (3 Blue Dune, 2.5 Dana’s, SP Ennistown) but I suspect better will be available in the morning.
NAPs hunters go for Blue Dune- just beaten on the line last time out from a strong lead. Down a furlong here, should handle the going, though it’s the only concern. Mark Johnston’s horses are still profitable in October with a bit of selectivity and a strong record with Joe Fanning over this distance. BD likes to lead, Fanning on board= perfect. Main rival won on heavy going, but has 3 extra furlongs to travel and an extra stone to carry. 3 with Bet365 now, only price up.
Well done today more profit, you are very good !
Hello Paul and Hammerboy- thanks for comments.
A decent day with 3 solid winners. Blue Dune was 2.75 this morning, Dana’s Present 2.25 and Daaree 3.5 but brought down to 3.12 by a non-runner. Authentication put in a valient effort but was beaten into 2nd by a strong show by Bold Cuffs in a field of 14 and Ennistown also lost in an interesting battle, but non-runners meant only 2 ran and he went off at 2/5. A downside of betting the night before- wouldn’t have been near getting involved if knowing that was going to be the race. Greyemkay came 9th of 14. Super Yankie returned 1.93. So 3.01 up on the day.
Only 1 for Weds. I’ll have another brief look later and post at 8am, but that’ll probably be it for tomorrow-
Nottingham 3.00 Scentpastparadise e/w 17 PaddyPower/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Scentpastparadise is 31/1 on Betfair at the moment if anyone interested
3 good winners yesterday.Only recently followed you , Pleased!
Just one to add for today-
Kempton 6.00 Ballyheique not priced yet. Will use BOG prices at 9am if 3+ are up, if not half-nine.
Scentpastparadise ran his odds rather than the hopes on him and wasn’t close to figuring. Course and distance winner Ballyheigue had been tried over different distances and disciplines since transfering stables and the possibility was that he was being set for this return with a drop in class and weight, considering Gary Moore’s consistent record on the All-Weather over this sort of distance. As it was, he was well positioned but proved one-paced, failing to pick up and was a well-beaten fifth. 2 down on the day, then, to be up 55.54 up overall.
3 for Thursday-
Ayr 3.40 Fieldgunner Kirkup 4 BetFred/WillHill
Kempton 6.50 Lea Valley Black morning prices
Kempton 8.50 Rodrigo De Freitas morning prices
Hi Mousecliff,
Just a quick one interesting selection today in thE 3.40 at Ayr both you and Betfair Profits have the same race but different selection same happened yesterday and Betfair Profit came out on top hopefully Fieldgunner Kirkup will do the business today. My only concern would be the 5lb weight increase penalty because of hes last two wins, you obviously dont see this being a problem is this because hes running over a shorter distance this time out? Good luck
Kindest Regards
Paul Y
Hi Paul,
I had taken that into consideration but Gibbons riding as he had done on those previous wins and with those also being on soft ground were factors also in the mix. He’d also stayed well over those 7f runs. Maybe it was why he faded, though may have been that the ground was just too heavy or ridden too prominently. Whatever the reason, was surprised how that one panned out.
Mousecliff
One winner today from Lea Valley Black. He was 3 with Bet365 for quite a while but was 2.88 by 10am when others had priced up. For simplicity I think it best to now use prices at 10am for records for evening meetings and stick with 9am for daytime now. as many have been sluggish of late in pricing. (I don’t mean bets should be placed at exactly this time- I’d get in as early as possible when a few have priced, taking the best, obviously- but for clarity of records I want to use a specific time. Fieldgunner faded surprisingly and Rodrigo had been looking for daylight and had just started to make a move when my streaming froze. He finished fourth, but thats all I know. -0.12 today then.
5 for Friday-
Bath 12.30 Authoritarian morning prices
York 4.15 Natural Bloom 8.5 BetVictor (8 other BOGs)
Wolves 7.15 Tahlia Ree 7.5 Bet365/BetVictor
Wolves 8.45 Spithead morning prices
Wolves 9.15 Tiradito 3.75 Bet365
I won’t be able to post Friday evening, but should be able to add them in the early hours of Saturday morning and the same for Sunday.
Great start to the day
Hope you get more votes after all you have been top of the leader board since ive been following.(couple of months)
Off to cast my vote for you.
Kindest Regards
Paul Y
Will update results Sunday.
5 for Saturday (will take morning prices, current prices in brackets)-
Newm 1.50 Librano (6 PP, WH, BV)
York 2.35 Lahaag (2.38 Various)
York 3.45 Heerat (7.5 BF, WH)
Newm 5.15 Producer (9 BF)
and Bronze Angel (7.5 PP, BV)
Late posting again tomorrow, but back to normal Sunday.
3 for Sunday (will use morning prices for results due to late-night posting, current prices in brackets)-
Goodwood 3.45 Prodigality (4.5 WH, BV)
and My Kingdom e/w 0.5 win, 0.5 place (15 Boy, BF, BV, 4 places paid)
Goodwood 4.55 Samba King (7 Bet365, BF)
3 for Monday-
Salisbury 3.25 Les Verguettes morning prices
Windsor 3.35 Jocasta Dawn 7.5 Bet365
Musselborough 4.20 Phoenix Clubs 8.5 BetVictor
Results update to follow.
This forward a step, back a step spell continued this week, ending with a meagre profit of 0.14 points. A similar return 2 weeks ago (0.47) and a loss of 6.55 last week mean this second phase of the competion is down 5.94 points in its 3 week duration.
As previously, the win bets (as opposed to each-way) have been steady over the 3 weeks with 19 winning from 70 selections and show a profit but dragged down by a poor return from the longer odds each-way bets.
Overall
Staked 312.44
Returned 364.36
Profit 51.92
ROI +16.62%
Phase 2
Staked 86.20
Returned 80.26
Profit/Loss -5.94
ROI -6.89%
That was 3 steps forward today! Well done, lets hope for a really good week.
Up 13.5 points on the day with two winners and a second place from the three selections. Les Verguettes was 3.5 with BetVictor at 9am this morning and on and off during the day whilst Phoenix Clubs benefited by using Best Odds Guaranteed bookies by drifting out to 13. Today puts the overall figures up to +65.42 and back above 20% ROI for all bets and 27% for the single win bets from 248 selections @ 1 point apiece.
I’ll try and post some thoughts on staking sometime soon, possibly later tonight or within a few days and please feel free to offer thoughts.
5 for Tuesday-
Leicester 2.40 Percythepinto e/w morning prices (0.5 win, 0.5 place)*
Newcastle 4.30 Flameoftheforest 6.5 PaddyPower, Boyles, WillHill
Newcastle 5.00 Blue Dune 2.38 Bet365/Boyles
Leicester 5.10 Exning Halt 6 Bet365/PaddyPower/BetVictor
Leicester 5.40 The Lock Master 9.5 BetVictor
* I’m not expecting huge odds on Percy, but expect a decent run for the money. However, I also think the favourite, Tunnager Grove, will take some beating but be quite short odds, so e/w here is a more cautious option.
Yep, great day Mousecliff, well done. Sadly for you in terms of the competition, your main rival also benefitted from the BOG on Phoenix Clubs as well
…but since I follow both of you & was on with a BOG bookie, I’m not complaining!
Hi Pete,
Yes, my arch backing rival, daggers at dawn and all that, was also on Phoenix Clubs. (It’s now three in a row when we’ve been on the same one and it’s come in.) Plus Dean laying another in this race and a good result all round. Blimey, this is going to get tense in the coming weeks!
MC
great day MC. Keep it going
Up 6.5 points today with The Lock Master, 9.5 last night, winning after Percy had come 6th and Exning Halt 4th.
2 singles and a double for Wednesday-
singles-
Lingfield 3.00 Zomerlust morning prices
Kempton 9.10 Alraased 3.25 Boyles/PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor
1 point double-
Nottingham 3.15 First Mohican
Kempton 6.40 Marford Missile
Prices not up yet so for clarity I’ll use Bet365 prices at 9am, but better may well be available elsewhere.
(Newcastle was abandoned so the other 2 didn’t run.)
New to this. What is meant by “a double”? Thanks!
As I’m logged in…
adds14, what you’ll be doing is betting that BOTH horses will win. Just go to your selected bookie, click the 2 selections, which will then appear on your betslip, which should also show an option for the double. Put your stake against the double & place the bet.
Mousecliff – thanks for another good day. I had one of those dilemmas where one system selects Exning Halt to back, while another selects it to lay. Don’t you hate it when that happens?!
Thanks for answering that, Pete- I struggle to be able to post during daytime some days.
Yes conflict of suggestions must add some doubt on which to back/lay, I guess. One of the reasons I like to back the night before is to exploit any mistakes bookies have made before the market has responded and often before the exchange markets have fully formed. In some cases, and this was one, the price dropped quite a bit in the hours afterwards so would have enabled you to lay at lower odds and effectively leave you a free bet or a small profit either way if you have doubt. I can’t speak for the layer (and if IRC then it wasn’t Dean) but hypothetically if the price had drifted then I wonder if it wouldn’t have been selected as a lay, due to offering poor value. In a long-winded way, I’m saying that opposing suggestions could be a pain to pick between, but if backed early you are more likely to be put in a positive than a negative position when this happens.
Adds, anything you need to know please do ask and good luck.
Up 1.73 points on the day and 21.73 points on the week after a winning double- First Mohican drifted to go off at 2.75 and Marford Missile, who had to fight off a bold effort from Eternal Gift, was 1.72 with Bet365 this morning. Zomerlust was third and Alraased has just come 3rd or 4th after becoming flustered in-running but was essentially beaten by a better run.
5 singles for tomorrow and a first e/w Super Yankie.
Wolves 4.00 Waspy morning prices (4.5 Bet365 currently, only price available)
Wolves 4.30 Chookie Avon 4 Bet365/BetFred/WillHill
Wolves 5.00 Joshua The First 8 BetFred
Kempton 5.30 Pastoral Jet morning prices
Kempton 8.00 Arch Villian 8 WillHill
For each-way multiples, they are counted as 2 bets with the wins put together into one bet and being placed put into another bet. So, with a Super Yankie, also known as a Canadian, it’s 26 bets (all combinations in doubles, trebles, fourfolds and a fivefold) for winning combinations and another 26 bets for the same in placing combinations. 52 bets in total @ 0.03 points per bet (30 pence if £10 to a point is your norm). 52 x 0.03 = 1.56 points staked (or 15.60 if 1 point equals £10, for example).
For records clarity, I’ll use Bet365 current odds (6.5 Joshua, 7 Arch) and their starting price for Pastoral Jet.
Hope that makes sense. Just make the selections, in ‘Super Yankie/Canadian’ box input stake, click ‘each-way’, check your stake and enjoy your Thursday.
Any questions, fire away.
Another good day pal
Up 8.23 points on the day with Pastoral Jet (5.5) and Arch Villian (8) winning singles and 1.29 returned on the e/w Super Yankie. This brings the total to a profit high, for the fourth day running, of +81.88 points (ROI +24.96%) and this week 45.52 returned from 15.56 staked, up 29.96 points.
Redcar has already been abandoned, so tomorrow is going to be a quiet day with just the one selection-
Wolves 5.50 Juarla 8 Bet365
I mentioned a few days ago I wanted to share a few words on staking options, when time permitted and now it does, so here they are.
Please note that I’m specifically referring to the sort of selections I make, and the odds I use, so results elsewhere may differ.
About 80% of my bets are single 1 point wins and these are almost always priced between 2 and 10 in decimal odds. So far in this competition, from 257 selections and 1 point staked on each of these win singles, using early BOG prices has returned 338.24 points and an ROI of +31.61%. Using Betfair starting prices, after deducting 5% for commission on winnings, would have returned 312.90 points at an ROI of +21.75%.
This difference between BOG and BSP matches findings monitoring several thousand of bets over the last couple of years, using various betting systems, on bets in SINGLE FIGURE ODDS. (I very briefly said I expected this to be the case back in early August.)
However, with odds between 10 and 15 I’ve found very little difference between the two in the long-run. Above 15, then BSP in the long-term has been the better as when there are drifters above this price then there can be huge differences between Industry starting prices and BSP. (My record in this competition on longer odds each-way bets is down a touch using BOG and up a touch using BSP.)
In all cases there will be occasions when one turns out to be better and unless you have some idea of whether there is going to be a major market change in one direction or another, then this is how I choose to place my bets.
Those are my findings, for what they’re worth, and hope that’s of some help/interest and I can only say what I’ve found.
If I had to follow my win singles using Betfair, I would probably split the bet up into a few smaller stakes and request prices, say, 10%, 20%, 30% above the best BOG price, choosing ‘take SP’ if they’re not matched. As the odds move up and down, you’ll miss some but gain on others and I suspect this would provide a return better than SP and close if not better than BOG prices. On the day, when the market has formed this can be the case for placing the extra 10% and 20% bets anyway. (There’s a bit of guesswork here and not something I can back up, but suspect this would be the case.)
Regarding BOGs and restrictions, there are a few things you can do to make it less likely to be banned or restricted. (I follow a couple of subscription services, for sports and horse racing, and naively been either banned or restricted by 4 bookies for sports betting, but have managed to escape for the horses so far, despite this being more profitable.) From what I’ve learnt and read, I’d say to try to stay under the radar by looking like a casual punter rather than someone takes it seriously-
-I’d recommend using an ewallet so you can move money around quickly meaning you don’t need to keep money in accounts or keep depositing from bank accounts (it also keeps it off your bank statements). This makes it a lot easier to use different bookies quickly without having large amounts in betting accounts.
-If prices are the same, use the bookie you use the least. There are 8 BOGs, if your winnings are split between them then it helps go unnoticed.
-If placing a big stake, split it between bookies.
-take advantage, but don’t abuse or solely use offers.
-NEVER ‘click through’ from an odds-comparison site. Open the bookie site in a new window.
-If using a compounding system (where your stakes go up and down according to a percentage of your bank) use round numbers, not ten bets at £12.53, or a succession of strange figures.
-If you’ve had a winning run with one bookie, let this be the place you make any ‘silly’ bets that you might place elsewhere- let them think they’ll get their money back.
-Leave a few stakes in your account when withdrawing after a winning run for the same reason.
-Have a fallow period from a bookie if you can- pro’s mostly bet each day, so if you disappear for a while it helps make you look like a casual punter.
-Mix up your bets. If you’re making a great profit on an obscure market, like Norwegian Volleyball, and that’s all you bet on then you won’t last long.
Please feel free to add/disagree/discuss. As I say, I can only express what I’ve found from my experience and I’m sure there’s a hell of a lot more to learn and add, so if your story differs then please do share it.
Best Wishes,
Mousecliff
Hi Mousecliff
I assume keeping money in the account is pretty safe on Pinnacle or Betfair (and other matching sites) but what sort of limit would you keep on a regular account before they start getting twitchy? I’ve got accounts at about 15 sites but most I rarely use. Some,like B365 have niche bets I use a lot and you don’t get elsewhere. I rarely have more than a few hundred in a regular site but is something like a thousand a good limit or would you recommend less?
Thanks
Colin
All you guys talk in morse code. BOG, BSP etc….Could you please translate?
I`d then understand what you were talking about.
I do understand until you abbreviate.
Nice post by the way.
Could you possibly cater for the small punter? As I,and many of your readers probably are, suspect that these views are aimed at those placing massive wagers on your advice. There are far more smaller subscibers than large ones.
How could we get closed down by a bookie by betting say £10 on each of your selections?
What is the threshold or tolerance limit of any constantly winning account with a major bookmaker before they close you down?
Well done with your last two selections today.
Could have done with just one more winner for the Canadian though. I never seem to win at Wolverhampton either and I live there. Tough.
Carry on bud seems your`e doing ok lately.
Will follow with interest.
Kind regards,
Steve.
Good tipping Mouse and an interesting post on staking
Mouse, really appreciate all your work and expertise. You obviously know this game well. ROI excellent at the moment and winners to losers ratio perfectly acceptable.
For the betting novices,long term Return On Investment (ROI)above 20% is extremely rare so Mouse is doing great.
Hi Mousecliff
Thanks very much for shareing your thoughts above, i for one find it interesting reading. I had a bad experiance with bet 365 who put a limit on my betting after i had used up my £200 pounds and then went into there so-called matched £200, there reasons, i was a bad investment to THEM longterm. I have tryed in vain several times to get it liffted.
I came to the same conclusion as you spreading you bets around in small units,and if you have a good day go somewhere else tomorrow. Also use walk in bookmakers if you can, some shops do offer BOG.
The e-wallet is new to me I will investigate thankyou!!
Keep up the great tipping having you and BF on my side is very rewarding.
I will be voting tacticaly if needs be to keep you both in till the death!!!
Regards
Peter (Basil)
Good post Mousecliffe. Another option is to lose on purpose a few times and lay the bet on betfair. Odds permitting. Hopefully this will stop the bookies thinking you are winning too much
Mousecliff, another good day yesterday – thanks
Mind you, BFP did well too, so it seems to be a bit nip & tuck at the moment.
A great post on staking as well. Think I’m small enough to be “under the radra still at present, but here’s hoping. Although having said that…
pepston – don’t you believe it! I was closed down pretty quickly by Stan James. I have no idea why – I was betting very small amounts & certainly wasn’t winning overall to any great degree (good days, bad days all mixed up) so no consistency there. Only thing I can think of is that I wasn’t betting round numbers, whch I always do now. Strange though, as nowhere else has closed me down yet.
One of my tactics is to bet most with the bookie which has the lowest balance in (as long as the odds are acceptable). The hope (expectation?) is that this will increase that balance & I will then need to switch to a different bookie, thereby fulfilling the “fallow” periods Mousecliff mentions. Of course, sometimes a bad run means that I will completely empty my account at said bookie, so that makes me look like an amatuer (believe me, that’s not the only thing!), especially if I don’t top it up again for a few weeks.
Interesting point about not clicking through from odds comparison sites though. I do that all the time for Bet365 & PaddyP, as it’s more conveneient & I find their main pages a bit slow to load, but I might avoid that in future.
Good morning Guys,
Most valuable exchange of ideas going on here ahead of Fakenham .
Mousecliff, have never heard of the ‘don’t click thro. form Oddschecker etc’ b4; makes perfect sense, they can tag you as serious ‘cos u r comparing odds. I guess I will have to open the sites first (in another folder), hope it doesn’t make system run too slow, any IT wizards out there have an opinion on this?
As the 13.30 is the ‘dead 8′ I decided to go e/w on both, I took a better BOG price than BF on No.8 but backed No. 7 on BF; if there is a n/r bookie will only pay 2 places, another aspect of value to consider.
Win bet only on NAP as 6 run.
16.45. at current prices best I could get was 112% for dutching all 3 for equal return. now that is quite acceptable, the field is down to 12 now and at least 5 of the others remaining look out of contention but I am skipping this one, just can’t fancy any of the selections.
No.6 is going up the weights (7lb since last win) for going close, placed 5/8 starts since last win.
No.11 is 2lb below the last winning mark, 22 runs ago, June 2011.
No. 12 is ridden by a jockey who has won just 2 from 39 rides this month.
Right, that should ENSURE that those of you on get a winner in that race.
Addick, cheers for first part of reply, but the second half seems to be in the wrong thread?
Lots of interesting responses guys- thanks a lot! There’s quite a bit to get through, will respond as much as possible later this evening. Have a good one, MC.
Addick, I think you are a little mixed up with your tipsters this afternoon, but good info anyway.
Sorry guys!
That’s what you get for printing it all on one sheet!
Hope you are all reading both anyway.
M.
Any picks for today or did I miss that post?
http://www.thegamblingtimes.com/board/day-day-life/10018-iesnare-make-sure-youre-not-being-snooped.html
You REALLY need to go to this thread as it will help you “understand” how bookies know what pages you’ve been to!
My apologies I did miss it – Wolves 5.50 Juarla 8 Bet365
adds14
Thanks for the link to gambling times. Very informative. Luckily for me I don`t have iesnare on my registry but would request that other subscribers log in to the site.
Today’s only selection failed to finish. After a dreadful start, Zuarla was already out of the race when falling nastily on the bend.
5 singles and a yankie for Saturday-
Catterick 2.15 Columella 3 PaddyPower
Ascot 2.55 Great Heavens 3.75 PaddyPower/WillHill
Catterick 4.40 Llewellyn 8.5 BetVictor
Catterick 5.15 Flamesoftheforest 4 Bet365
Catterick 5.45 Blue Dune 2.25 Bet365
For the Yankie, the four without Lleyellyn. 11 bets (6 doubles, 4 trebles, 1 fourfold) X 0.09 points = 0.99 points. I’ll use Bet365 current prices (2.75, 3.5, 4, 2.25) but better may be available when others price in the morning. Please ask if unsure of anything.
Replies to messages on their way…
Cheers for all the messages. Quite a lot, so sorry if I miss anything.
pepston/Steve seems a good place to start. Sorry if too many abbreviations. BOG- Best Odds Guaranteed. Place a bet with Bet365, WillHill, PaddyPower, Boylesports, BetVictor, BetFred, BetInternet and if races starts at a higher price you get that. If price stays same or reduces you keep initial price. (Plus Ladbrokes after 10am.) SP is starting price, BSP- Betfair starting price.
Actually thought the BOG verses BSP stats would be more interesting than the restrictions thoughts, but added those while I was at it. Yes I suspect most following would be placing £10 or less a bet, but in a month that would be +1k. If split across different bookies not going to raise eyebrows but in one place might do over time, so think it relevant or at least of interest to some. (I’m not a high-roller by any means and have still had a ban and a few restrictions, but hopefully have learnt from that.)
There doesn’t seem to be any set rule or definitive rule that means make a certain amount of profit and wallop, you’re gone. It seems to be more the style of betting- in fact I’ve read of people being banned even after making a loss!
Petewins- ‘I was closed down pretty quickly by Stan James…. Only thing I can think of is that I wasn’t betting round numbers.’
Did their email mention arbitrage? (Situations where you can back one outcome with one bookie with the highest odds and the other outcomes elsewhere to guarantee a profit regardless of outcome.) This seems to be their biggest hate. Someone betting £10, £10, £5, £20, £10 looks pretty normal, but £5.73, £12.11, £9.84, £23.23 etc would look like balancing bets elsewhere, especially if clicked through from an odds-comparison site.
Basil/Peter- ‘The e-wallet is new to me I will investigate thankyou!!’
Of all the suggestions, I think this is the one I’d choose to put in bold and underline. I use Neteller, though I think the others work in much the same way. Once deposited, you can move money in and out of bookies in hours rather than days from a bank account. This means you can find the best odds with a lot less cash floating around in deposits and withdrawls.
I don’t think shops offer BOG but could be wrong- perhaps someone could confirm this?- but don’t use a reward card which they’ll be able to link to you and defeat the object.
adds, thanks for that link- pretty frightening stuff! glad to find I’m clean on that front.
unclelen/Colin- ‘I assume keeping money in the account is pretty safe on Pinnacle or Betfair’
I’ve heard of people being banned from Betfair, but have absolutely no idea why. However, Pinnacle do not ban people. They use big money makers in a different way- they treat them as unknown advisors and use their knowledge rather than ban them, so you don’t need to worry about spliting bets or the like if they’re the one you choose for a bet.
From interviews with ex-bookies and posts from those who have been banned, I get a strong impression that withdrawls/deposits are not hugely important and that they actually like money left in accounts. I wouldn’t like to suggest amounts as it’s one thing most people are most guarded about and I don’t want to mislead if unsure.
Interesting a few of us have been banned for relatively small stakes yet I bet, so to speak, we’ll hear on the tv tomorrow of one of the big bookies accepting a bet for £25k, or the like, backing one of those taking on Frankel. Lets all raise an eyebrow at that moment…
Good luck on Saturday,
Mousecliff
Hi MC
I also think the BOG/BSP comparison is interesting but unless anyone has stats to the contrary of yours then the discussion cant go very far.
It’s the fact nobody knows for sure the critera bookies have is why it is a good debate.
And thanks for the ewallet tip (as well as those for the nags!) that seems a good idea and can ease liquidity issues too.
I assume those big-hitters sticking £25k on Frankel have pre-approved credit accounts.
MC – Victor Chandler also do BOG, & I believe Coral do now as well, after re-launching their website. Never really sure about the situation woth Totepool, does anyone know for certain (too lazy to ring up their support desk!)
When I got closed by Stan James, they wouldn’t tell me why, but I’d guess it was what you were referring to re the odd amounts. Although I wasn’t doing arbitrage, I was just strictly following a percentage of bank – my own stupid naive fault, but I was a real newbie at that stage.
It shouldn’t be any surprise that they like people keeping money in their accounts. Big companies can put money on overnight short term deposit etc & earn a tidy sum doing that to top up their normal operational earnings. As a related aside, just look at insurance companies. Motor insurance on its own has (I believe I’m correct in saying) made a loss for insureres for about 13 years in a row. So why do they do it? They take all the premium money & invest it in a similar way (although not as short term necessarily). And also use it as a loss leader of course. Big companies (the successful ones at any rate) are very clever at using spare money to boost their bottom line – why do you think it’s generally cheaper to pay for things up front in one lump?
Good luck today everyone
Unreal today both MC and BF having no luck. Still it’s very much the exception rather than the norm. Let’s hopefully get back on track tomorrow.
Yeah a bit of an anti-climax of a day, betting wise. Flamesoftheforest lost narrowly and Llewellyn was also second but nothing elsewhere either. It’s been a busy week and I think an evening away from it would be a good thing rather than make bad choices in a tired state.
So, I’ll put Sunday’s up at midday and respond to any messages then. (It’s only Bath on the flat so not going to be a big day, but there should be two or three picks.)
Thanks very much adds14 for your iesnare link; I had 9 such files! Perhaps that’s why Victor & Stan have closed my accounts, Bodog closed me for suspected money-laundering on my first deposit/withdrawal(!), Boyle doesn’t seem to let me bet on anything online (I call them spoilsports!), while Paddy & Fred severely limit my bets!
Then again, one point for me normally is a relatively large amount so perhaps my win/loss ratio is monitored more closely, to protect their profits.
I have the last laugh though: when Bodog closed me, they refunded my initial deposit back to my bank without debiting for it first and that was last December so I think I’ve got away with that one!
By the way, MC, may I congratulate you on what looks to be a very promising service – so much in fact that it’s scaring me to contemplate how long Hill/B365 will tolerate my winnings from your tips when I start betting normal amounts!
Good Morning Everyone,
Pete, good spot with Coral, thanks- had a look and yes they’ve come back to BOG in the last week or so. Victor Chandler, now BetVictor already on the list. (Coral only on day of race.)
StanJames have also gone back to BOG from beginning of Oct, so will add Coral and StanJames to list of bookies used.
Should be good news if more are bringing it back or adding it.
DannyD, yep you’re right on the stats non-debate.
Goobledy, crickey, the Bodog bit sounds brutal!
Anyway, back to the main stuff- today’s picks will be up shortly…
4 for today-
Bath 2.00 Burnham 3.75 BetVictor/Betfred (3.5 others)
Bath 3.05 Authentication 5 WillHill/Boyles/StanJames/Coral (4.5 others)
Bath 4.10 Gladiatrix 2.25 WillHill/Boyles/Betfred/Coral (2.2 others)
Bath 4.40 Dream Catcher 5.5 Betfred/BetVictor/PaddyPower (5 others)
Burnham went down to 3.5 across the board whilst typing so will use that for records.
That transition period again folks between flat and NH is upon us.
What a mental day again. Well done Nick Schofield on Basoda in the 3.50 @ Kempton but Sam Jones on KIKOS in the 4.55 @ Kempton is on my christmas present list. New Velcro.
Just a case of sorting the wheat from the chaff now. Trainers are shrewd guys and place horses to win enough money for the owners to keep them in feed (corn money)at their stable for the winter ready for next season.
We have only seen Mouse`s system work since the start of the flat season proper and not into the winter months yet. I`m sure Mouse will have a ball at this testing time and has many ideas in place on the AW. I`m really looking forward to your AW selections mate.
Kind regards, Steve
Sorry, but running a bit behind- picks for Monday up at 10pm (tonight, Sunday). Week’s stats and other bits after that.
3 for Monday-
Pontefract 3.20 Solar Spirit e/w 10 Boyles (higher with Ladbrokes- non-BOG until 10am) 0.5 win, 0.5 place- 4 places paid
Pontefract 4.20 Jawaab morning prices
Windsor 5.00 Authoritarian 4.5 Bet365/PaddyPower
Week stats-
Staked 26.55 points
Returned 45.52 points
Profit 18.97 points
ROI + 71.45%
Overall-
Staked 338.99
Returned 409.88
Profit 70.89
ROI +20.91%
A week of two halves with a cracking first 4 days followed by a dreadful weekend. But, I hope anyone following all week (and over time) will have made a nice profit.
If anyone joined at the weekend, then sorry about the timing and the last couple of days. Overall things have been pretty steady- this is 6 profitable weeks in 7- but there will be ups and downs. (My post on 6th Oct might be of interest.) If that is the case, then please don’t chase any loses. This competition runs until Dec 16th and there’s plenty of time to make a nice return as long as a sensible bank is used (splitting amount prepared to bet across a number of bets).
Steve/pepston- nice post. I’ll get back to you on that topic this week, as yes, it is a time of change.
Up 2.5 points on the day with Authoritarian going off at 5.5 and winning nicely which was a bif of a relief after both Solar and Jawaab had been in a position to push on, but failed to do so.
Selections for Tuesday-
Lingfield 2.00 The Wonga Coup 7 BetFred (6.5 Bet365, other yet to price)
Yarmouth 3.50 Minsky Mine (0.6 points win only) 9 Bet365/Boyles
and De Rigeur (0.4 points win only)* 2.5 BetVictor/Boyles (2.38 elsewhere)
Yarmouth 4.20 Mucky Molly 8 Bet365 (7 PaddyPower, others yet to price)
Lingfield 4.30 Picansort 8.5 BetVictor (8 Bet365)
* a ‘saver’ bet on De Rigeur with the idea being that nothing is lost on the race if wins- hopes are for a Minsky win.
Ouch!
Joined at the weekend, unlucky timing I guess, need cheering up after today.
Hi John, certainly unlucky with the timing- a new high on Thursday followed by (I think) the worst 5 days I’ve had as a group. There will be downswings but as long as stakes are spread evenly enough so that you can withstand these sorts of days, a couple of winners will make you less blue. Good luck, MC.
Remember, last week was a stormer. There will be runs like this, especially when not just picking short odds faves. Keep up the good work son
Bring on the AW.
Cheers for comments Bruno. Sorry I’ve been a bit slow in replying lately but should be less so soon.
Chris/peps may as well answer earlier post here to avoid getting lost…
indeed bring on the AW, but for me that’s mainly because juggling 2 lots of stats, with turf still going, is a bit more time consuming. Shouldn’t really be much difference when it’s just AW in terms of betting, but maybe not quite so many bets and fewer multiples opportunities. Also quite a difference in the stables and jockeys popping up in the selections. A bit more info in the email blurb tomorrow or Friday so won’t repeat. The other obvious positive is not having to check the weather forecasts each night!
A blank on the day with Minsky 3rd, Wonga in a dead-heat for third, Molly 4th and Picansort 10th. Will hope for better tomorrow.
Four for Wednesday-
Newmarket 5.20 Sennockian Star 5 PaddyPower/Boyles/BetVictor
Kempton 7.50 Sesentum 4.5 PaddyPower (4.33 BetVictor)
Kempton 8.50 Chapter and Verse 8 BetFred (7.5 others)
Kempton 9.20 Methayel e/w 15 Bet365/BetFred/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Will post Thursday’s shortly after the 9.20 tomorrow.
Methayel so close there
Three 2nd places from four selections today. Methayel returned 1.99 place money after rule 4 deductions for non-runners, but the sickener was Chapter and Verse losing out in a prolonged photo-finish. A couple of inches the difference between profit and loss on the day. I try to take heart from these close calls as reason for positivity, but it is quite frustrating at the same time.
Four for Thursday-
Southwell 4.40 Danube River 4.5 Bet365 (4 PaddyPower)
Southwell 5.10 Maltease Ash morning prices
Wolves 6.10 Miss Dashwood 2.5 Bet365/PaddyPower
Wolves 7.10 Layali Dubai 6 PaddyPower (5.5 Bet365/BetVictor)
Mousey, those close calls like for Chapter and Verse can go either way as you well know – some you win, some you lose.
)etc etc. Nothing you can do about these things, just important that your selection gets in the position to have the opportunity to win and you are doing that.
Its the same in all sports – the shot that hits the inside of the post and comes out, the golf shot that hits the flag and drops in (or flies off the green), or a valid goal mistakenly disallowed for offside in injury time against Swansea by a blind linesman that lets someone down for a fivefold (but I am not bitter
3 out of four. Knocked it out the park Mousecliff
Up 11.62 points today with a hat-trick of winners from four selections, to go into an 8.11 points profit for the week and exactly 79 points profit overall. Details and tomorrow’s picks a little delayed, but will follow at about 9.30 tonight.
Wow, that was brilliant. I put them all in an E/W accie and also a Lucky 15. Almost doubled my account at Slaphead’s – a bookie I don’t use too often! He’ll not be pleased with you….
Thank you – great job!
I`d not be too sure about that. Slaphead is probably following Mouse and BFP as well!!!!:-)
I had a £10 treble on the last three races after the first had lost. Won £1092!! Get in. Thanks Mousecliffe
Great! (I’d love to know what was going through your mind when placing that
Well done and enjoy your winnings! (Hope you didn’t put too much back today!) Please send me a message the next time you have an inkling this is about to happen 
Hi mate. Will do!! Just plain lucky. Was going to to quad or a perm from 4 , but missed Danube so as just went for the treble. I don’t do these often but the three left were reasonably odds so I thought why not! I generally have a cheeky treble once a week. Won £1700 about 6 months ago, so well up on these now. I am sure that will be it for the next few years!.
Forget about today and keep up the good work
Apologies, but make that 10pm – it’s going to be a busy day and want to double check a few races. Will be more punctual again when it’s just AW in 2 and a bit weeks.
Today and replies after quite a bit, singles and a multiple, for tomorrow…
Singles-
Doncaster 3.15 Prodigality 4.5 Bet365/Paddypower/StanJames
Newbury 3.25 Dominate 4.5 Bet365 (4 other BOGs)
Newbury 4.00 Consider Yourself 10 PaddyPower (9 other BOGs)
Doncaster 4.25 The Lock Master 5 Bet365/BetVictor
Newbury 4.35 Capitol Gain 6 Bet365/BetVictor
Doncaster 5.30 Hayek e/w 13 BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Wolves 6.10 We Are City morning prices (for records, best BOG price @ 10am)
Wolves 6.40 Authentication (0.75 points, win only) 9 PaddyPower
and English Summer (0.25 saver bet) 4.3 PaddyPower
Wolves 7.40 Lord Franklin morning prices (for records, best BOG price @ 10am)
Super Yankie- Prodigality, Dominate, The Lock Master, Capitol Gain, We Are City. (For records will use Bet365 current odds 4.5, 4.5, 5, 6, SP.) 26 bets (all doubles, trebles, fourfolds and a fivefold) X 0.04 points = 1.04 points staked.
10.04 staked on the day.
Wot a great day! Well done Mr M! Felt for you yesterday, and a bit sad for me too
What a spanker today, put in a couple of multiples and really made up for yesterday.
Let’s see what happens tomorrow cannot wait.
RP
Thanks and sorry couldn’t deliver today. Been more very good days than very bad days this last fortnight, but more of both than normal- after a month of up a bit, down a bit, up a bit, down a bit and steady but pretty unexciting stuff. Your multiples may not agree, but I’m hoping for a sane ‘up a couple of points’ Saturday!
Housekeeping- Maltease Ah was 5.5 generally this morning but with all BOG bookies, as advised, went off at 6, Miss Dashwood was patiently ridden and had a bit extra, drifting slightly to 2.62. Layali Dubai (6 last night and off at the same) was beautifully ridden by Silvestre De Sousa to comfortably win a race which, under lesser hands, could easily have gone elsewhere (though that was part of the reason for the selection). Danube River, also under De Sousa, broke slowly, recovered to be travelling in mid-division, but something seemed to be amiss and put under the whip from 5f, when there was no response was taken home gently. 14.62 returned on the day from 4 staked, up 10.62 and not 11.62 as I’d excitedly miscalculated and incorrectly posted earlier- knock-on corrections 7.11 up on week, exactly 78 overall.
Tomorrow is one of the busiest days for a while, but purely because of the opportunities available and not because of a positive day today- I certainly don’t want to be handing today’s cash back lightly!
Well! I joined up yesterday and because there were only 4 bets I backed at £5 a point – no multiples, but an impressive and profitable start for me.
Thank goodness I dropped my point rate to £2 or I would have lost the lot and then some today!
Looking at the history, I’m not going to give up after two days, so I’ll be looking for more of the better form … and keeping my stakes low for now!!
Hi Slicksid,
)
Good to have you along and thank-you for saying where you’re ‘at’. Absolutely correct about keeping stakes at a level you’re comfortable with. Please have a look through the results- you’ll find quite a few ups and downs, but nothing too extreme and I’d advise avoiding reading too much into these highs and lows of the individual last few days as there are many many more normal and less rollercoaster days and weeks before them. (And yes, more Thursday’s results rather than Friday’s have been prayed for from the betting Gods
If I was you (and this is only my way, others will have their own suggestions, I’m sure), I’d go for the same small stake on each bet that you’re comfortable with and stick with that amount. In this case, say £2 or £3. If and when you are in profit by £50, move it up a pound and keep doing that. This way you’ll not be burnt too much by an early bad run and if money comes in and your stakes rise, you’ll largely just be reinvesting the profit and steadily building towards a pleasing return.
Do you mind if I ask what odds you had yesterday and with which bookie? I had the three winners at 6, 2.62 and 6 (and these were the starting prices and higher if with Betfair Starting Prices), so 14.62 returned from 4 staked, up 10.62, whereas todays woeful effort was down 10.04, so still a touch up.
Well, Mouse, that was a poor day. Too much quantity and not enough quality? Your records speak for themselves, but both you and Betfair got carried away today i think
Hi sjr,
Yes, a poor day, no two ways about it.
With the priority today being picking tomorrow’s selections, I haven’t gone back through today’s and watched all the races and had another look at the details, cards, stats and my reasonings, but I will do so.
I can categorically say though that it wasn’t a case of saying ‘great day today, let’s throw a few extra in tomorrow.’ I don’t do maidens or novices and these normally rule out 2, 3 or 4 races on each card. For the majority of the days lately I’ve only had 2 meetings a day to look at, with about 15 races in total. Take 5 or 6 away for maidens and novices and that means most days lately have left about 9 races for the areas I work with. Today had some decent quality at Doncaster, Newbury and Wolverhampton, fewer than normal maiden and novice contests and a total of 17 races I looked at.
Also, I’d made a start before the last race yesterday and had made a couple of the selections before that winner.
But, and I wonder if you have a point here, I don’t normally have 9 selections to take a second look at. Was I as rigorous as normal at this stage? Could I have been? I was late in posting by an hour for the extra work. Was it spread too thinly?
We live and learn- I’ll have another look on a quiet day and see if there were bad choices and points missed which should have been spotted and report back.
I think posting questions like this are beneficial to both sides, so appreciate you doing so.
Best Wishes,
Mousecliff
Appreciate your honesty there. You could easily (and with justification) have just pointed to your stats. We should all be in this for the long run and you are well on top. Here’s to tomorrow.
Stuart
Most of yesterday’s profits spent the day packing a suitcase and have now left for a night away. Hopefully it’ll be a short stay. Nobody likes days like today, least of all me and I’ll be trying to pick it apart later.
I want and need to reply to some of the messages from last few days. Again, sorry for being slow with this area, but whilst it’s a mix of turf and all-weather (and at this time of year those focusing on AW come out to play, whereas in the summer when it’s more of an extension to the turf), the analysis does take longer.
I haven’t finished Saturday’s all-weather meeting at Wolverhampton, but will do so later. There aren’t prices available with the bookies yet, so nothing lost here, and they’ll be up later tonight ready for the morning prices.
Meanwhile, here are 4 turf single selections for Saturday and 1 double-
Doncaster 1.25 Gifted Dancer 5 BetVictor (4.5 Bet365)
Newbury 2.15 Alhebayeb 5.5 betFred (5 most others)
Newbury 3.45 Lahaag 6 BetVictor/StanJames/WillHill/Boyles/BetFred
Newbury 4.20 Whimsical 6 PaddyPower (5.5 betFred/BetVictor)
1 point double
Newbury 3.15 Victrix Lubdrum
Doncaster 4.45 Skilful
4.01 BetVictor (2.1, 1.91), 4 Bet365 (2,2)
Hi Mousecliff,
At the moment, everything is going through Betfair and when I got the bets on I had 4.1, 2.83 and 6.6, so only a point less than the official odds.
Ah, okay, that makes sense. Sometimes you’ll win and sometimes lose, odds wise- 2 out of 3 were better for you but the other drifted later. Only thought to add, is that quite often Betfair markets haven’t fully formed the night before so if you can’t get the odds I’ve mentioned, either hold back until the morning or leave an unmatched bet at slightly higher than the bookie odds quoted and there shouldn’t be too much difference in the long-run.
5 points staked already for Saturday- see earlier post.
2 to add-
Wolves 7.15 Xpres Maite e/w morning prices (will take best BOG price at 10 a.m.) 0.5 win, 0.5 place
Wolves 7.45 Lea Valley Black morning prices (will take best BOG price at 10 a.m.)
Additionally, let’s have a low-staked Super Yankie in here as well. We’ve pretty much broken even with these over the months and occasionally gone close to a big one. For transparency I’ll use Bet365 odds at 10 am.
26 bets X 0.04 points = 1.04 points staked.
Newbury 2.15 Alhebayeb
Newbury 3.15 Victrix Lubdrum
Newbury 3.45 Lahaag
Newbury 4.20 Whimsical
Doncaster 4.45 Skilful
NO BETS FOR SUNDAY due to no flat or all-weather taking place. Next bets Sunday night at 9 pm for Monday as ususal.
Today Whimsical, off at 6.5, has won, Lahaag a non-runner and two still to run tonight.
A strange week in a few ways. After months of having a longest losing run of 12 selections, to hit two runs of exactly that length in one week was a bit of a shock. That the week ended only 3.21 points down and a photo-finish away from being in profit should queiten any alarm bells and only making a small dent into the previous week’s profit of 18.97 points.
Of course when there is a losing run that means the bets immediately before and afterwards are winners, so the damage is not what it could appear and after 350+ selections that this is as bad as it gets, is a more than respectable figure with odds averaging around 6. Still, a less rollercoaster week and a steadier return is hoped for in the coming week(s)!
Week Stats
Staked 32.08
Returned 28.87
Loss 3.21
ROI -10.01%
Phase 3 stats-
Staked 58.63 points
Returned 74.39 points
Profit 15.76 points
ROI + 26.88%
Overall-
Staked 371.07
Returned 438.75
Profit 67.68
ROI +18.24%
We all have bad weeks but a loss of only 3.21 is very respectable, keep up the good work
What bubbles said.
Great work! :O
Mouse, I have tried many tipping services that have cost me more than the “rewards”. To have a service as yours for free (so far
) is a real pleasure. Thanks.
Cheers for the comments above- always pleasing to hear, thanks
and let’s hope for a profitable week. By the way, I’m not sure if I’ll be able to post all or some of next weekend due to personal commitments, but will update that later in the week.
To round up Saturday just gone, Whimsical was the only winner, off at 6.5. Alhebayeb was closest of the rest in 2nd. The single on Lahaag was voided due to being a non-runner, but the Super Yankie stands with Lahaag just taken out of those bets he would have been involved in. So, the double with Lahaag and Whimsical became a single on Whimsical, returning 0.26 (0.04 X 6.5). 6.76 returned from 7.04 staked.
Onwards to Monday and 3 low priced singles and so, despite lowish returns on multiples lately, will persevere and also as another race which I can only see going one of two ways but having little value as singles or a forecast.
Singles
Leicester 2.20 Shamaal Nibras 3 Bet365/PaddyPower/WillHill
Leicester 3.20 Llewellyn morning prices (best BOG @ 9am)
Leicester 4.20 Glossy Posse morning prices (best BOG @ 9am)
2 Yankies with the 3 above, plus one Yankie with Red Tyke (2.40 Redcar) and the other Yankie with the 3 above plus Blue Dune in the same race. 11 bets in each Yankie X 0.09 points for each. 11 X 0.09 points = 0.99 points for each Yankie, so 1.98 in total.
Still a fairly low risk stake- 2 winners returns most of a point or more depending on prices, and I’ll be pretty surprised if we don’t get one in the Redcar 2.40, 3 winners and we’re into profit and of course all 4 would be a lovely start to the week. Any questions, please ask, as I think I’ve made that sound more complicated than it is.
Oh, forgot prices for Redcar 2.40…
Red Tyke 3 Bet365 (so will use their current prices – 3, 3, 3.5 and SP for Llewellyn for results)
Blue Dune 3 PaddyPower/WillHill (so will use 3, 3, and SP and SP for results.)
Personally I’ll be waiting until the morning and choosing the best prices then, but stating this for results clarity and I don’t imagine a huge difference either way.
We was robbed. 1win and 2 seconds. Only had the patent cos I couldn`t see the point in backing against myself for the yankee with 2 in the 2.40 at Redcar. Nevermind it was close and worth the risk. Carry on sgt. major.
Sgt. Major?
Lt. Col. surely? (Please promote or downgrade according to results. If I get down to Lance Corporal, then there could be danger to carrying on
There was a method behind what may have seemed like madness in that oppossing bet. I can’t imagine it’ll come up again for a while so I hope no rush, but I will explain the thought process. (Nothing ground-breaking or even particularly interesting but will make a bit more sense.)
Break evens on the singles for today with a winner and two second places from the three selections. Glossy Posse won, was widely 3 this morning and then having been tipped heavily and napped at At The Races went off at 11/8. Shamaal Nibraas had to shuffle around to try to find an opening and perhaps was not Richard Hughes’s finest ride, losing narrowly on the line. Llewellyn had every opportunity to press on and win a race there for the taking, finishing second despite stepping down a class and won’t be given another chance.
Blue Dune was an unexpected non-runner at Redcar which not only affected our bets, but significantly altered how the race was run. More in a bit.
Turf singles for Tuesday (AW to follow in an hour)-
Catterick 1.20 Rusty Rocket 8 (6 BOG bookies)
Catterick 2.50 Ctappers 7 Bet365
Yarmouth 3.40 Lord Buffhead morning prices
One to add for tomorrow to the three above-
Wolves 7.10 Layla’s Oasis morning prices (best BOG @ 9.30 am for records)
It’s the sort of day with the bets at decent odds where one winner means a profit, 2 winners makes a great day, but there’s also a fair possibilty of a blank due to the odds, so worth seeing in perspective as simply four bets within 100+ for the month.
Regarding Redcar 2:40 today, Blue Dune was a surprise non-runner as was used to the going and no apparent reason for withdrawl. Having run last few 14f+ races aggressively from the front, the same was expected which would have strecthed the field and made this 15f over heavy going a challenge too far for this small field, with only Red Tyke any sort of record over either the distance or going, left to compete. A very different sedantry race resulted which didn’t suit our choice.
hi there, do you email the tips or do we need to look at this thread every day? thnks
Hiya sssdd,
yep tips posted here each day around 9pm.
I went for the 3 singles in a cheeky each way treble yesterday.
0.5 pts profit from the singles and a whopping extra 0.53 pts from the treble.
Cheers Mousey
Cheers for your comments (reply to one earlier to follow) and pleased to hear you had better odds than the records and made a profit- when only a couple of bookie odds are available it’s a judgement call on whether to take now or pause until the morning. Gain a point here, lose a point there.
Moan number 836 against the bookies- I hate it that the e/w multiples are the win bets in one bet and the place part in another and not combined, otherwise we’d be having a lot of fun, but then I guess that’s why they do it that way.
It always seems that I join things like this just at the beginning of a bad run – just as well I actually started on Thursday and made a bit of profit to play with, although that’s run pretty low now!
Still, fortune has to change soon – fingers crossed for Layla’s Oasis to save the day!!
You and me too ssid, every tipster, everything i have ever backed bar none has been a poor start and i just joined mousecliff recently and i have the same experience, if it makes you feel any better!
I know it can feel like that at times but the key thing is to stick with them, even if you just paper trade for a while untill you’re sure, otherwise you can end up missing the good runs and hitting the bad runs. If you stick with something long term then after a while the occasional bad run won’t bother you (as long as it’s profitable long term of course).
That’s the good thing about this competition – you know the long term results are 100% accurate and haven’t been made up or exaggerated in any way, so you can be confident about future long term profitability even if you start on a bad run.
Oh well…
Yep, I fully agree Matt and think this a great way of experiencing systems and tipsters first hand and the ups and downs you’re likely to encounter and how to deal with them.
More generally, I also think it’s important to understand strike-rates in relation to odds and can take a bit of getting used to if switching from, say, odds-on sports bets to longer odds with horses.
Backing football teams in singles and level stakes at 1.8 would have a loss with a strike rate of 55% or under. Backing horses at odds of 5 needs 21% to make a profit- 79% can lose and still be in profit. The ups and downs will be higher, but shouldn’t be too extreme and that’s why a bank is needed and steady staking recommended, but in the long-term can be very profitable. As Matt says, long-term thinking is needed and seeing each bet as a small percentage of that, helping to keep somewhere bewteen jubilation and despair (though I confess I find that harder to do when tipping publicly, I’ve learned!).
The table has been updated (sorry about the delay). Quite a battle between the top two!
http://www.bettingrant.co.uk/the-t-factor-table-talk-4595
Four for Weds now, any for Kempton to follow at 10pm along with a recap and then replies.
Lingfield 1.00 Illustrious Lad morning prices (best BOG price at 9.30am for records)
Nottingham 2.30 Ajuba 4.33 BetFred/BetVictor (4 elsewhere)
Lingfield 3.10 Green Earth morning prices (best BOG price at 9.30am for records)
Lingfield 3.45 Enery 7 Bet365/Boyles/PaddyPower/WillHill
Kempton picks for Weds (the other bits still to follow shortly and (if) any multiples to win or e/w after a step away and ready for the dawn)-
4.35 Bert The Alert 3.5 Bet365
5.35 Rhagori 4.5 BetFred
6.05 Ouzinkie 5 Bet365
7.05 Cappadocia 5.5 PaddyPower
8.05 Good Luck Charm 6.5 Bet365/BetVictor
Limited choice of bookies available, mostly. Better prices may be available in the morning, but I don’t think these will be far off and with BOG would probably prefer to be backing tonight.
Nice one on Ouzinkie. Was starting to get worried
Got 6.6 as well
One winner today in Ouzinkie, off at 6 with the BOGs, so 2 pts down on the day. The downswing continues and though this is easily my worst run, the number getting in with a shout is still high and if a small percentage of those had gone come in, it could have been a profitable rather than a losing spell. Ifs, buts and maybes, perhaps, and disappointing, certainly, but I hope not too dispiriting. Onwards and, hopefully, (back to) upwards…
4 singles for Thursday and a Yankie.
Lingfield 3.20 Surprise Moment 3.25 PaddyPower/BetFred
Lingfield 3.50 Layali Dubai morning prices (best BOG at 9.30am for records)
Kempton 5.40 Norfolk Sky morning prices (best BOG at 9.30am for records)
Kempton 8.10 Circuitous morning prices (best BOG at 9.30am for records)
Yankie all four selections in 11 bets X 0.09 = 0.99 staked.
Bet365 have a few prices up so will use their odds for simplicity in records (3,3, SP, 3.25) but think holding back and finding the best odds around 9am will be an improvement.
3 out of 4 normal service resumed, got 3.05, 2.63 and 4.50
Cheers and pleased to hear you managed to beat the odds quoted!
Three winners from four selections, up 9.44 points on the day and into profit for the week.
Layali Dubai was 2.625 at the off, Norfolk Sky was 3.25 at 9.30am but reduced to 3.14 by a non-runner and Circuitous 4.5 this morning again brought down by a non-runner so ended with the 4 it went off at if backed at 9.30 (which is just a specific time for records rather than a necessity to place bet then). For records then 2.62, 3.14 and 4, so 9.76 returned on singles, up 5.76. Surprise Moment was 4th, just over a length away from the winner.
For the Yankie, I was taking last nights prices with Bet365- 3 for Layali, 4 for Circuitous as a BOG and SP for Norfolk 2.1, returning 4.67, a profit of 3.68. If backed this morning, as advised, an extra point and a bit could have been obtained.
Friday’s to follow at half nine.
5 singles for Friday and a Super Yankie-
Newmarket 2.10 Require 4.5 Bet365/PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor
Newmarket 2.45 Boonga Roogeta 3.25 PaddyPower (3 Bet365)
Newmarket 3.55 Lieutenant Miller 4 Bet365/PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor
Wolves 6.15 Archina 6 Bet365
Wolves 7.15 My Mate Jake 4 Bet365
For the Super Yankie, 26 bets x 0.04 points = 1.04 points staked. Will use the current Bet365 prices as the only one to have all prices up, but PaddyPower has all apart from Archina currently priced.
You are “the MAN”! So-o-o enjoying growing my tiny cash pot with you! Thank you so much.
Am not a serious gambler.. only bet £1 stakes but since I found you have seen my pot grow steadily. Keep up the good work.
Very nice profit from yesterdays yankee. If I could that every day I wouldn’t be sitting here at work !
Thanks Mousecliff, I really appreciate your clever tips.
Cheers
Lucky
Just the one winner today, Boonga, at a price brought down to 3.04, so exactly 3pts down on the day. Short on time this weekend and nothing to look at for Sunday, so update and next bets Sunday night for Monday. Nice to hear from a couple of new people above meanwhile and I’m sorry still slow on replying but will have more time from next weekend onwards.
3 for Saturday and I think I should give brief reasoning for the middle one…
Newmarket 3.05 Prince Siegfried 6 bet365 (5.5 others)
Newmarket 3.40 Mrs Greeley e/w 101 StanJames (67 Boyles, 51 Bet365/BetVictor) 0.5win, 0.5 place, 3 places paid
Newmarket 4.10 Comrade Bond e/w 11 Bet365/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place, 4 places paid)
Mrs Greeley- huge odds on an outsider, but in a race where question marks can be posed about each entry for different reasons. Mrs G didn’t disgrace in a Class 1 at Ascot earlier in the month on soft ground, finishing 4th of 15 with an SP of 50/1 and Ted Durcan rides her for a 4th time after coming 1st, 2nd and 4th in previous three rides. Backing trainer Eve Johnson Houghton’s horses over similar distances in October and November over the last five years would have returned an ROI of +96%. A rare long shot, but not entirely without hope.
A similar week to the last one, stats wise, and not much to add that haven’t said before. Always disappointing to have a week in the negative, but nothing that can’t be wiped out by a good day. After a great start to this phase, hopefully a good week to finish with to keep the figures up. It becomes just all-weather from next weekend and I’ll update the figures for win, each-way and multiples and for turf and AW so far at the end of the phase, next weekend.
Week Stats
Staked 31.01
Returned 26.47
Loss 4.54
ROI -14.64%
Phase 3 stats-
Staked 89.64 points
Returned 100.86 points
Profit 11.22 points
ROI + 12.52%
Overall-
Staked 402.08
Returned 465.22
Profit 63.14
ROI +15.70%
Six singles for Monday, all from Wolverhampton-
1.45 Dickie La Davoir e/w 11 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
2.15 Trending 7 Bet365
3.55 Aragorn Rouge morning prices (best BOG price at 9.30 for records)
4.55 Drawnfromthepast 6 Bet365/WillHill/BetVictor
and Decision By One 9 Bet365/PaddyPower
5.25 Holden Eagle e/w 13 Bet365 (0.5, 0.5 place)
Tomorrow’s post will be a late one, probably between midnight and 1am, so for all of those will use morning prices.
A pretty respectable collection of efforts for Monday with Aragorn Rouge winning (3.25 everywhere at 9.30am), Holden Eagle picking up place money (2), Drawnfromthepast a neck away in 2nd, Dickie La Davoir also a neck away from place money in 4th and Trending in the competitive cluster and not far away, but out of the reckoning in 5th. So, 5.25 returned from 6 staked, 0.75 down on the day.
5 singles, 1 double and a Super Yankie for Tuesday. (7.04 to be staked on the day.)
Due to the timing of this post, I don’t think it’s fair to use current prices as I’d be pretty darn surprised if anybody reads this before the dawn, so for all singles I’ll use best BOG price at 9.30am, but will put current prices in brackets.
For the double will also use best BOG price combination at 9.30am. Probably to my detrement, but for the sake of transparency and clarity, for the Super Yankie will use for records a random BOG… this time… BetFred at 9.30 (and if not all priced then, then 9.45, 10.00, for records). (Personally, I’ll be having a look and placing as soon as there are a few options and it normally turns out to be Bet365 or PaddyPower.)
I’ll explain reasonings behind certain betting strategies such as this after the weekend. If you ever feel the need to check prices quoted, go to oddschecker.com >>>horse racing >>> pick meeting >>> pick race
then click on horse’s name.
Tuesday singles-
1.40 Southwell Fayr Fall (8 Bet365)
3.10 Southwell Mason Hindmarch (3.5 Boyles/PaddyPower/BetVictor)
4.00 Redcar Windygoul Lad (7 Bet365)
5.30 Wolves Lord Franklin (3.75 Bet365)
6.30 Wolves Rythmic (3.75 Bet365/WillHill)
1 point Double-
2.10 Southwell La Estrella
7.30 Wolves Boonga Roogeta
Super Yankie- La Estrella, Boonga Roogeta, Mason Hindmarch, Lord Franklin and Rythmic.
26 bets X 0.04 points = 1.04 points staked.
First two selections in SuperYankie are from Nov 1st;-)
Apologies, didn’t check to see them making a quick return.
No worries- made me smile actually. I generally try to tip on events yet to happen- races already won are easier to get right, but harder to place bets
A pretty good day but running a little behind so update and tomorrow’s picks at 10pm.
If that was a “pretty good day”, I can’t wait for an excellent day!
)
Great job, thanks. Again!
Well, it was close to being one but a few just slipped through the net. Pleased with the high number in the reckoning at the moment so should be catching a few more sooner rather than later
Up 4.27 points with 3 winning and the other 4 all coming third. Fayr Fall (7.5 with Bet365 at 9.30 this morning) won and La Estrella (1.34 WillHill after a tiny reduction) with Boonga (2.75 WillHill) made a double for 3.68. The Super Yankie returned 0.13. So, 11.31 returned from 7.04 staked.
3 for Weds-
4.55 Kempton Inthar 4.33 BetVictor
6.55 Kempton Viking Storm 3.5 Bet365/PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor
7.25 Kempton Chapter and Verse 7.5 PaddyPower/BetVictor
I’ll echo the above sentiment if we hit an excellent day then it is going to be seriously good. Keep up the good work MC
Thanks. Yep certainly hope a couple are on the way. I haven’t updated my stats (will do at weekend), but pretty sure I’m right in thinking that the AW has been going better than the turf over last few weeks so hopefully can push on from here as the season ends at the weekend.
Today’s three selections came 2nd, 3rd and 4th in that order, so with 12 out of 16 finishing in the top 3 this week, but only 4 winning, the small profit gained should be boosted if that sort of quota getting close can be continued.
Four for Thursday-
2.10 Lingfield Sigurwana 5 Bet365/BetFred/PaddyPower/BetVictor
and Sheila’s Buddy e/w 15 Bet365/BetFred/PaddyPower/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
2.40 Lingfield Links Drive Lady 8 PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor
4.50 Wolves Marmot Bay 5 Bet365
Nice win on Sheila’s Buddy there!
Thanks, Matt.
Well done Mousecliff. If you could only pick a 12/1 winner every day then we wouldn’t have to work at all. Never mind the rest – they all had a chance – but a big price winner normally pays for the day !
Thank you
Cheers
Lucky
Cheers and yes, all had a shout. 14/1 last night until breakfast time
Up 5.75 points on the day with Sheila’s Buddy backed @ 15 each-way returning 9.75. Sigurwana and Links Drive Lady ran better than their 9th and 5th placed finishes suggests in close contests, whereas Marmot Bay came second but really found one better in Archie Stevens, under a very assured ride from Richard Kingscote. Up 6.52 points this week now and +17.66 points in the three and a half weeks of this phase to consolidate top place in both the overall table and the one for this phase which is obviously pleasing going into this next voting weekend.
Three for Friday-
6.20 Wolves Elegant Muse 5 Bet365
6.50 Wolves Whinging Willie morning prices (Best BOG at 9.30 for records)
7.50 Wolves Gran Canaria Queen e/w morning prices (0.5 win, 0.5 place, Best BOG at 9.30 for records)
Quarter-final voting is now open:
http://www.bettingrant.co.uk/the-t-factor-vote-now-quarter-final-7293
Firstly, a sincere thank-you to those who have voted- it really is appreciated that the hard-work that has gone in over the past few months, and I assure you there has been an enormous amount, is appreciated! Recent results have been perfectly respectable- a few ups and downs, which is to be expected at some point and all very much within any sensible bank size- but I acknowledge they haven’t hit the highs of earlier in the competition.
As a system/service, there’s plenty of scope to modify, extend and improve and from the performances both before and during this competion, I’ve every faith it’s moving in the right direction, so thanks for sticking with it and I hope you continue to do so.
After the selections for tomorrow, signaling the end of the season, there’s a break until Wednesday when the AW returns, so the next bets will be up on Tuesday night as per normal, though I will update stats and have an opportunity to belatedly respond to a few comments and post a thought or two on other things in the meantime.
Nothing returned from today, though I’m not quite sure how Whinging Willie didn’t win and with over 19k matched in-running at 1.01, it seems I wasn’t alone. The Moore/Baker combo have an amazing record at middle distances on the AW in November, having 10 wins in recent years (2nd best is Johnstone/Fanning with 5) and blindly backing each would have returned a profit of 55 points from 37 bets, but sadly wasn’t added to today. Elegant Muse ran poorly and Gran Canaria Queen was unsettled in the stalls, started poorly and couldn’t recover.
6 singles tomorrow and we’ll sign off with an e/w Super Yankie.
Singles (all Doncaster)-
12.20 Les Verguettes 9 e/w Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place, 4 places paid)
2.00 Sajjhaa 3 BetFred (2.88 BetVictor/PaddyPower, 2.75 Bet365 and others)
2.35 Kirthill 9 e/w Boyles/PaddyPower, 8.5 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place, 5 places paid)
and Party Line 15 e/w Bet365/PaddyPower (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
3.10 Ultrasonic 7.5 PaddyPower/StanJames
3.45 Shamaal Nibras 12 e/w WillHill/StanJames/BetVictor/Coral, 11 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place, 4 places paid)
Super Yankie not including Party Line. 26 bets x 0.04 points = 1.04 points. As it’s e/w this is doubled to 2.08, so 8.08 staked on the day and I’ll use Bet365 current odds for records and clarity though will personally wait for the morning when all have priced.
the most consistent performer in my book. keep up the good work.
Nice of you to say that, thanks. Saturday is full of big fields, pretty large odds and the sort of day when there could be a small margin between a good profit and a losing day. Hopefully will be a good way to end the season!
Don`t big fields bother you then cos they sure scare the hell out of me?
I have wondered about this, so looked back through the results for the first 11 weeks for races with 15 or more runners. The results are actually very good- 26 bets, 13 to win (5 winners for a profit of 11.95 points) 13 e/w bets (2 winners, 3 placed, profit of 10.5 points) so 22.45 up on 26 bets. (Copied below and will add the last 4 weeks when I’ve updated recent spreadsheet in next day or two.)
But there is a leak somewhere here so the next area to look at will be on quality of race as these days have happened at the bigger events and whether or not these methods don’t work so well with the better quality races.
Horse Odds BetType W/L/P Position From
Maria’s choice 12 W 6 16
Stepper Point 41 E/W 14 17
We Have A Dream 34 E/W 9 18
Perfect Mission 21 E/W 10 15
Grandiloquent 4.5 W 7 15
Mont Ras 5 W 3 18
Invisible Man 15 E/W 11 20
Tropical Beat 21 E/W P 3 19
Cambourne 9 W 7 19
Gathering 15 E/W P 3 16
Burke’s Road 13 E/W 15 16
Valiant 6.5 W 15 16
Escape To Glory 15 E/W W 1 16
Double Dealer 15 E/W 15 16
Jawhar 7 W W 1 18
Heerat 8 W W 1 20
Sentaril 5 W 5 18
Regal Realm 15 E/W 8 18
The Gold Cheongsam 3.75 W W 1 21
My Kingdom 21 E/W 5 16
Green Park 19 E/W 6 15
Saslong 13 E/W 16 17
Sholaan 17 E/W P 4 26
Henry Allington 9 E/W W 1 28
Cape Classic 7 W 9 21
The Gold Chegonasm 5 W 3 19
Blue Dune 2.75 W W 1 15
Natural Bloom 8.5 W 11 16
Prodigality 3.45 W W 1 16
My Kingdom 17 E/W 8 16
missed out four in my totals- I needed to schroll up when toting up the totals- so stats should be 30 bets, 14 win (up 9.95) and 16 e/w (up 7.5) so 17.45 up from 30 overall.
Note to self- More haste, less speed, more haste, less speed…
Good figures . Big fields today made it s lottery and should have won the second race
Overall
Staked 433.20
Returned 491.72
Profit 58.52
ROI +13.51%
All figures include deductions for non-runners.
Single win bets
Staked 336 (77.56% of outlay)
Returned (using Best Odds Guaranteed bookies (BOG)) 397.80
Profit 61.80
ROI 18.39%
Returned using Betfair Starting Prices (BSP) 387.90
Profit 51.90
ROI 15.45%
Returned after commision deducted 372.56
Profit 36.56
ROI 10.88%
Finishing positions-
1st 81 (24.11%)
2nd 59 (17.56%)
3rd 49 (14.58%)
Top 3 finishers 189 (56.25%)
Each-way singles
Staked 67 (15.47% of outlay)
Returned using BOG bookies 64.58
Loss 2.42
ROI -3.61%
Returned using BSP 65.77
Loss 1.2
ROI -1.84%
Returned after commision deducted 62.93
Loss 4.07
ROI -6.07%
All other bets (multiples, etc.)
Staked 30.20 (6.97% of outlay)
Returned 29.34
Loss 0.86
ROI -2.85%
Phase 3 Stats
Staked 120.76
Returned 127.36
Profit 6.60
ROI 5.47%
Single win bets
Staked 91
BOG Returns 98.68
Profit 7.68
ROI 8.44%
Finishing Positions
1st 18 (19.78%)
2nd 17 (18.68%
3rd 15 (16.48%)
Top 3 Finishers 50 (54.95%)
Each-way bets
Staked 15
BOG Returns 14
Loss 1.00
ROI -6.67%
Other bets
Staked 14.76
Returned 14.68
Loss 0.08
ROI -0.54%
Looking at results on turf and All-Weather since 1st October, the AW has shown a decent profit, but this has been off-set by a loss on turf.
Looking closer, both sets of win singles have shown a profit and both had a +50% top 3 finishers and the turf has had 30 out of 70 finishing in the top 2 so that’s reassuring to know and not something to fear in future. But whilst the e/w bets on the AW have also shown a profit and the performances have been good, the big leak which needs plugging is the longer shots in the form of e/w on turf which has had a bad time and had a big impact on the stats and returns.
This may not be much consolation to the money lost on those bets recently and, I apologise for that, but knowing this should help improve the returns in future.
I suspect there has also been a weakness in the higher quality contests and will analyse that in due course. (Most of the AW has pretty poor lower class racing through the winter so this isn’t too pressing.) If that is the case then recognising this should help future results and if there are areas performing beneath the average, it also means there are others performing above average and identifying these can be equally useful.
Good stats work, interesting that BOG bookies have beaten BSP so far.
Yes, and whilst I’ve consistently found that to be the case with my bets both during this competion and prior to it- which is why I’ve advocated this method- it may not necessarily be the case with other services whether on this site or elsewhere.
Within Betfair markets, once formed they’ll be a touch over 100% early and also before the off so if some prices are contracting then others’ prices are expanding. This is a trader’s territory, but if there was a price or market position you knew would contract it’d be easy to back and lay so is clearly not that simple.
But, with BSP verses BOG it’s a little different, I think. Personally, I’d rather be with BOG for odds in single figures and Betfair SP for higher. As stated previously this is based on looking at thousands of results using different systems and because when a higher price drifts it normally ends up far higher on Betfair than with bookies.
I’d also rather be with Betfair for bets with higher odds to keep under the radar. Whichever method is chosen, though, there’ll be cases where you would’ve been better off using the other method and neither will be better in every instance.
Yes I had similar thoughts re: the differences between BOG and BSP for lower and higher odds, perhaps why BOG has worked best for you while BSP is generally better for Betfair Profits’ typically higher-priced selections. As you say though, some you win and some you lose some with either.
Your doing a great job bud and this break obviously is giving you a chance to get an indepth look at the stats and make some tweaks to add the finishing polish to an already fine service. Looking forward to tuesday night
Cheers Davy, thanks. Yes, a few days off gave a chance to take stock and have a look back and find areas of strength and weakness. Also a chance to switch off from it and refresh the batteries. With hindsight think I should have had a few days break earlier in the comp too. Oh well, can’t change that now, but is another tweak I’d make if able to continue beyond this competion. Let’s hope to steadily accumulate from here on in…
Back to business with 4 singles for Wednesday. Over the coming weeks there isn’t anything going on on the All-Weather on any Sunday, but all other days have one or two meetings so there should still be plenty of bets, if a touch fewer than previously, so there’s plenty of scope to get stuck in for another month.
Southwell 2.20 Rakticate morning prices (best BOG @ 9.30am for records)
Southwell 2.50 Dolphin Rock e/w 15 Boyles/BetFred/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Kempton 4.25 Purple N Gold morning prices (best BOG @ 10am for records)
Kempton 5.25 Ihtifal 3.25 Bet365/PaddyPower/BetFred/Boyles/WillHill
I’m using different times for records purely because the Kempton race is part of the evening meet and Class 6 Apprentice and history suggests there may not be many prices up before then. These times are just to make it clear what prices I’m recording but I recommend getting on with BOG as soon as a few have priced. To check prices go to oddschecker.com find the race and click on a horse’s name and the pop-up tracks the movements through that day. (On Betfair there’s a little graph symbol next to horse’s name which plots the prices prior to the off for that horse.)
Purple N Gold (3) won comfortably but a point down on the day. Ihtifal was a close second and Dolphin Rock one off some place money in fourth. Rakticate was always playing catch-up after a poor start and also finished fourth.
Thursday’s-
12.20 Southwell Drawnfromthepast 4.5 BetFred/PaddyPower/BetVictor
2.50 Southwell Goldmachen e/w 13 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
4.25 Kempton Norfolk Sky morning prices (best BOG price at 10am for records)
6.25 Kempton Diplomatic 7 PaddyPower/BetVictor
7.55 Good Luck Charm 8 Bet365
and Kinglami 6.5 Bet365
1 point double
12.50 Southwell Equitana
2.20 Southwell Havin’ A Good Time
Will use best BOG combination at 10am for records.
ha ha, ,must be my lucky day. Backed Goldmachen on the nose by mistake and to cap it off, i bet on it twice on different bookies for an 18 point profit!!!!!!
And i thought I was a bit lucky today! When I clicked the e/w button I did not realise that it had not worked. So I only had half a point win. So I bet again e/w. So ended up getting a full point on the win.
Well done to you!
Glad you both profited from messing up, so to speak. Bruno, I don’t think I’ve ever accidentally double bet a winner (but pleased you did!) but did throw the toys out of the cot a while back when double betting a loser and, going through account and account, slowly realising the second bet should have been on a winner. Grrr.
This might be of interest (a weekend swimming in stats, so a final splash for now)-
Up until the break, backing every bet 1 point win single a point each way (2pts staked) would have made an extra 15.55 points profit with BOG, 26.93 with BSP before commision and 17.68 after commision, but each would bring the ROI down. I’ll keep looking but generally prefer to go for win only.
On the other hand, backing the e/w bets to win only would have been more profitable. My thought process for those, though, is that ‘I think this can be close’ and if I needed to think ‘this can win’ then I probably wouldn’t back it or post it.
Use that as you will- 3 e/w bets for Friday for much the same reason.
Up 8.75 points on the day with wins from Goldmachen, backed each way @ 13 last night but brought down to 12.4 after a non-runner, returning 7.75 and Good Luck Charm 8, again last night, higher during the day before being backed in. Near misses elsewhere with Drawnfromthepast finding one better despite a good run in 2nd, Diplomatic finishing strongly also 2nd and Equitania cruising home to land the first part of the double but Havin’ A Good Time faded when well looking well set so unable to fulfil his side of the bargain and finishing 5th.
Six singles for Friday-
12.00 Lingfield Archie Stevens 2.62 PaddyPower/BetVictor
1.35 Lingfield Layali Dubai 2.75 PaddyPower
2.10 Lingfield Speak The Truth e/w 9 Bet365/PaddyPower (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
2.45 Lingfield Dorothy Dancing e/w 9.5 BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
4.45 Wolves Pavers Star 6 Bet365
7.45 Wolves Miss Ella Jade e/w morning prices (best Bog at 10am, 0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Mouse, you are for sure the star of this comp. I hope more people realise that as it gets closer to the end. I do not want to lose out on your great tips.
Thanks,
Stuart
Like I said before. Very consistent. Excellent work pal
Thanks for that and I hope so too! Really happy with the consistency of performances running above their odds and being close so frequently suggests there should be a significant upturn due sometime soon. A few tweaks needed for the coming year admittedly- see posts a few above- but I’d be very surprised if anyone who has followed these tips and bank advice would doubt future profits.
Still quite a while to go in this comp, so hopefully the results can do the talking…
Yep, cracking day again yesterday MC, keep up the good work.
Re your post just above on e/w, do you still take the e/w bet if the place part of the bet wouln’d cover a losing win part? Probably doesn’t happen too often given the prices you advise at, but I was just wondering what your thoughts on that are.
Hi Peter,
Generally not. Although the stats for the place parts above are positive, to bet lower odds e/w rather than win only would either mean staking more in total or having to lower the stake on the win part of the bet- neither of which is desirable. Overall, the extra 15 points profit betting 1 pt win and 1pt place is not a great reward for over 400 extra points staked and it’s hard to see it could be much more with an existing high hit-rate.
There might be individual exceptions when it’s a sensible safety-net, but normally if the odds are low I’d prefer to be just on the win. If odds have dropped and e/w no longer appeals then I might go half a point win if not confident/comfortable to go for a point win.
Down 3.75 day with 1 winner and a couple of close but not quites. Layali Dubai, paid out at 2.25 after a rule 4 deduction for a non-runner, edged a three way battle whereas Pavers Star and Archie Stevens finished 2nd and 3rd in similar battles. The other three proved to be also-rans rather than contenders, all further back in their fields.
3 singles for Saturday but I’m going to have another look and will post at midday, though I suspect that may be it or an extra one or two at the most.
12.30 Lingfield The Cornish Cowboy e/w morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records)
3.55 Lingfield Storm King 7 PaddyPower/StanJames
8.50 Wolves Aragorn Rouge 3.75 Bet365
After quite a bit of agonizing about a couple of extra selections at Lingfield, eventually concluded I’m not going to add any more to today’s current 3. Next bets tomorrow night at 9pm for Monday, but will update stats before then.
All 3 selections were very close 2nds today, resulting in a small loss of 0.75 for the day, but very different reports on three of the more experienced AW jockeys. Thecornishcowboy, 14/1 at 10am and for most of the day until shortening close to the off, battled admirably and was well pushed by Adam Kirby who got out of him all he could and returned 2.25 as backed e/w. Storm King flew home, but it’s so often Jamie Spencer’s way to try to take it dramatically on the line and it’s infuriating when it doesn’t quite come off and there’s clearly more fuel left in the tank. Finally, as per usual Joe Fanning rode the track and manipulated position expertly to look set to take Aragorn Rouge home but, not for the first time in the last week or two, couldn’t get that extra effort out in the closing strides.
Up 3.25 on the week with 20 staked. 13 single wins bets produced 3 winners (with 6 second places and 1 third) and a 0.25 profit. The 6 e/w bets had 1 winner and a second place, both at 14/1, for a 4 point profit. The one double was lost after the first half won but the second brought the bet down.
Overall
Staked 453.20
Returned 514.97
Profit 61.77
ROI +13.63%
Slight correction- the stats are correct but the e/w winner was 12/1 (knocked down to 12.4) not 14/1, which I’d confused with the previous week in the write-up.
Five selections for Monday, all at Wolverhampton-
2.00 Rakticate e/w 15 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
4.00 Fabled City 6 WillHill
and Jungle Bay e/w 15 Bet365/Boyles/WillHill/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
5.00 Looks Like Rain 8 Bet365/paddyPower/BetVictor
and Genea Mac e/w 21 Bet365/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
14/1 e/w shots Rakticate and Jungle Bay made it 5 consecutive 2nd places, all by less than a length, but at least returned some place money. Rakticate, backed at 14/1 last night, was 16/1 through much of the day before shortening, matched in running at 1.57 and returned 2.25. Jungle Bay stayed at 14/1 until breakfast then backed into 6.5, and was matched in-running at 1.37. A small non-runner deduction meant a 1.9 point return. Fable City was a neck behind in third. Genea Mac drifted hugely and faded badly. Looks Like Rain was left too far adrift and couldn’t challenge. 0.85 down on the day with 4.15 returned from 5 staked.
3 singles and a Yankie for Tuesday, all from Southwell-
12.50 Maltease Ah 4 Bet365/PaddyPower
1.20 Projectisle morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records)
2.50 Bold Marc morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records)
For the Yankie, the three above plus Seenomore in the 2.20. 11 bets x 0.09 points = 0.99 points staked. Will use BOG bookie with best odds combination at 10am for records.
Outstanding Mousey
Outstanding indeed. Top class.
Have said it before but… YOU ARE THE MAN!!!
Fantastic – you can’t do better than that.
Well done sir. Nice yankee and the singles. Had confidence in the selections so staked a little more than I should have on the yankee. 3 points as contrary to your recommended 0.99. Ta matey. Keep em coming my son.
Thanks for messages- I hope you all made a few bob today
Well done, Good Sir! I’d like to add more than a big loud “Thank you!”, but everything I thought of was a bit patronising.
Accordingly, I’ll stick with Well Done and Thank You (not necessarily in that order).
Outstanding picks again. You are THE MAN!
Up 18.71 points today with 2 of the 3 singles winning and 3 of the 4 in the Yankie.
The day actually started poorly with Maltease Ah fading away and being pretty much eased home which was strange considering recent performances for seemingly no particular reason and no fault of jockey De Sousa’s. Projectisle drifted to 6 at the off and won by a large margin (10 lengths +) for a 7f handicap. Bold Marc also went off at 6 and was made to work before pulling clear by a length and a half.
For the Yankie, Seemenomore won from the front by a length and was 1.73 at 10am this morning with WillHill who had the best overall odds at the time, but with 2 drifters most BOGs would have paid out the same.
12 returned from 3 staked on the singles, 10.70 returned from 0.99 staked for the Yankie.
Four selections for Wednesday-
2.30 Lingfield Thunderball 7.5 PaddyPower
4.30 Kempton Silver Bullitt e/w 11 Bet365/PaddyPower (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
and Fly Solo e/w 8.5 PaddyPower (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
7.00 Kempton Moderator 6 Bet365/BetFred/BetVictor/PaddyPower
Well done Mouse.. Top notch
Kept forgetting to mention this- probably well known, but don’t know- incase it’s of interest to anyone…
great archive footage of races on Bet365, but a bit hidden from an obvious search, and the races are added pretty quickly after finishing. (Just need a penny or more in your account.)
Home Page >>> Live Streaming >>> (hover) Results Archive >>> Horse Racing Archive >>> date/ meeting/ Go
Amusing race of the day- Fakenham 1.30 well worth a look (and stick with it right to the end).
Cheers Mousecliff, I never realised Bet365 had that. The archive goes back a long way too. Extremely useful.
Just watched it… I bet that young jockey wanted the ground to swallow him up! Happened to me last year on a 12/1 shot. As you can imagine, I was bloody fuming
You became a jockey after your DJ career Bruno ???
Ha ha Danny. Too fat for that!
Down 3 points today after 3 pretty mediocre runs- two 6th place finishes and Moderator 5th when everything looked set-up nicely for him but was disappointingly one-paced and unable to take the chance. Fly Solo was a non-runner.
Six singles for Thursday, all from Kempton-
4.10 Beat The Bell morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records)
5.40 Tropics 3.25 PaddyPower/WillHill (3 with others)
6.40 Estedaama 2.75 Bet365/BetVictor (2.62 PaddyPower)
7.10 Hurry Up George 6 WillHill (5.5 BetFred, 5 others)
7.40 Diplomatic 7.5 PaddyPower
and Eager To Bow e/w 13 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
Tomorrow’s selections for Friday will be up a bit earlier at about 8pm.
Up 2.37 points on the day after Eager To Bow won from the back along the inside. 12/1 last night which would have returned 8.5 as backed e/w, but brought down to 7.37 after a couple of non-runners, including the other choice Diplomatic, though more would almost certainly have been returned if backed during today up until the last hour and a half when the price shortened. Earlier, it’d been a bit disappointing- Beat The Bell was 2nd, in a depleted field, and Tropics 3rd, but the other two failed to land a blow despite being well backed.
Four for Friday, all at Wolverhampton-
6.10 Dandarrell 7 Bet365
6.40 Star Links 8.5 WillHill
and Snow Trooper 8 Bet365
7.40 Aquilonius morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records)
Down 4 points on the day with Aquioius, 3.25 at 10am, losing by a nose in 2nd, Snow Trooper a few lengths back in 3rd, Dandarell 7th and Star Links 12th.
A busy Saturday with 8 singles and a Yankie. Next bets 9pm Sunday night for Monday.
Lingfield
12.45 Fat Gary morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records)
1.55 Rugosa 4.5 BetVictor/PaddyPower
and Gifted Girl 9 BetVictor/PaddyPower
2.25 Drawnfromthepast 4 BetVictor/PaddyPower
Wolverhampton
5.50 Italian Riviera morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records)
6.20 Hello Stranger 5 BetVictor
6.50 Another Citizen 5 Bet365
7.20 Marmot Bay morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records)
For the Yankie 11 bets X 0.09 points = 0.99 points staked. Will use best BOG odds combination at 10am for records.
Horses to use- Fat Gary, Drawnfromthepast, Italian Riviera and Marmot Bay.
good call in the 1.55 mate! I wish I had done a RF. Unfortunately I saw BFP was “napping” Rugosa and another nag and got greedy, going for a tricast
Anyway, you are up again today. Great week this week!!! Thanks a lot
Marmot Bay has won the 7.20 after a lengthy Stewards’ inquiry overturned the original result. Obviously I think this was the correct decision
Up 5.77 points today with 3 winners (eventually), 2 second places and a third from the 8 selections. Wins for Gifted Girl, 9 last night and had only dropped to 8 by this morning before being backed down to 3.5, Italian Riviera 2.25 with StanJames at 10am this morning cut slightly to 2.19 after a non-runner and then Marmot Bay, 3 at 10am with Bet365, BetFred and BetVictor given the race after originally losing in a photo but was deemed to have been impeded after Windforpower had effectively forced him some distance to the right. Rugosa was second, behind Gifted Girl, Ancient Citizen lost in a photo, Drawnfromthepast was third and won’t be given another chance, Hello Stranger was fourth with Ted Durcan perhaps misjudging the pace, Fat Gary fifth. The Yankie selections were overall best priced with StanJames and returned 0.57.
Up exactly 19 points on the week with 48.98 returned from 29.98 staked. 23 single win bets produced 5 winners, 4 second places and 3 thirds, returning 26.19 for a profit of 3.19. 5 each-way bets had one winner and two second places, returning 11.52 and a 6.52 profit. The two Yankies returned 11.27 from 1.98 staked and a profit of 9.29.
Overall
Staked 483.18
Returned 563.95
Profit 80.77
ROI +16.72%
Monthly Summaries
Stats in points profit. (I started on 31st July with one bet which lost.)
Aug +16.58
Sept +42.85
Oct +1.27
Nov (so far) +21.07
Weekly Summaries
Week Seventeen +19.00
Week Sixteen +3.25
Week Fifteen -4.62
Week Fourteen -4.52
Week Thirteen -3.21
Week Twelve +18.97
Week Eleven +0.14
Week Ten -6.65
Week Nine +0.47
Week Eight +2.00
Week Seven +1.11
Week Six +41.15
Week Five -11.7
Week Four +36.95
Week Three -7.25
Week Two +3.68
Week One -8
I get bored of repeating myself, but you ate Mr Consistent. Superb fella. Keep it up
Ha ha. You didn’t eat him!! You ARE Mr Consistent!
LOL! I’m glad I didn’t eat him, the poor chap- that would’ve been a terrible episode of the Mr Men!
Thanks to sjrmacleod and jupitus for correcting others on another thread. Given the hundreds of hours of work put into this competition it’s deflating when keep reading comments about everyone having awful results or other contestants struggling or bizarre comparative statements, normally asserted with complete confidence clearly without bothering to check if it’s correct, but I don’t think it’d be right for me to big myself up on another’s thread so have just tried to ignore them, so thanks for that.
Let’s have a sportsmans bet on the number of these comments that’ll be made this week. I’ll go for 11
haha. Good one. I’m gonna say 8
Here’s hoping this bloody rain goes away, so that we can get back to relieving the bookies of their money.
Cheers,
Stuart
You’re welcome Mousecliff, although if I had known he would have retaliated in such an abusive manner perhaps I may not have corrected him!
Southwell has been abandoned for tomorrow already, so, weather permitting, the next bets will be up Monday night at 9pm for Tuesday. Tuesday is only Southwell as well, so guess that must be in doubt. Three meetings on Wednesday though, so hopefully there’ll be some action before too long.
And now Tuesday has been abandoned at Southwell too. Next bets (hopefully) Tues night at 9pm for Wednesday.
When will this bloody rain stop. They should just put the horses in boats and let them race that way. As for folk giving you abuse on other threads just sit back and let the figures do the talking. Heres to drier weather
I saw a pic from Wetherby yesterday. Has anyone ever thought of dolphin racing?
I reckon it’d be a close fin-ish. This sheep racing looks like an alternative… http://www.thebigsheep.co.uk/family-attractions/bigsheeprace.html
(sorry!)
Selections for Wednesday, some free money and a note about the All-Weather for tomorrow.
Firstly, three meetings look like going ahead tomorrow (Weds) but Southwell has been switched to Wolverhampton. One thing to note is that Wolves is a faster track then Southwell. Additionally, whereas rain softens and slows down turf, it has the opposite affect on the AW- think how much easier it is to run on a beach on the damp, firm sand near to the sea than on the dry fluffy stuff well away from the tide- as it fills the surface and solidifies it. In other words, a damp Wolves is vastly different to a dry Southwell, so beware of previews written in advance for the latter.
Singles for Wednesday-
1.10 Wolves Gran Canaria Queen morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records)
1.30 Lingfield Torres Del Paine 7 WillHill (6.5 PaddyPower, 6 others)
1.40 Wolves Catalinia’s Diamond morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records)
3.10 Lingfield The Cornish Cowboy 5.5 Bet365/PaddyPower
4.20 Wolves Chookie Royale 7.5 Bet365 (7 most other BOGs)
4.30 Kempton Bert The Alert 5 PaddyPower
5.00 Kempton Neige Dantan 4 Bet365/BetVictor
Now for a nice offer. Nothing to do with horses, sheep or dolphins, but should earn an easy £25 or so, with pretty much no risk.
Bet365. Go to Games (on the menu with Sports, Casino etc.) Click on View Promotions. Opt In to the £1m giveaway. There are a list of games and dates. Deposit/transfer £10 and play that through once on game for that date (for minimal risk, go for 10p stakes and Autoplay 100. £10 staked. Next day you get £10 free added! (You might lose a few pence or a pound or two but then get a tenner added so be well up.) When next game commences, play this £10 bonus through once in the same way and it’s cleared and able to be withdrawn. But, don’t withdraw. instead repeat process and you’ll get another tenner. Three stages left, so £30 bonus money to be claimed as simply as that. as long as you don’t withdraw before the end (9th Dec) it should be an easy way to make an average of £28 quid. (I don’t think Matt or BonusBagging has done this one so thought I’d add it. Missed a few stages so could have been even better. Spotted it so thought I’d pass it on.)
Good shout on the Bet 365 front. Wish I’d spotted it sooner!
Really don’t understand this slot business, losing losing losing then on the 99th spin I won £5 for some reason so made a small profit in the end. How people enjoy doing that I do not know…
Well, the odds are stacked hugely in your favour here, so a few moments of misery should add a bit to your bank or enable a mistimed barbecue purchase. Were you playing the qualifying game Bouncey Balls?
Oh absolutely, I don’t mind doing it when I know I’m going to win, can’t see the attraction otherwise though!
Just checked price movements- Bert The Alert moved down to 4.5 whilst typing earlier post so will use that for results.
Mousecliff
Your are a gem! Just tried the games at Bet365. Did not win jackpot but received bonus of £15 added – not the £10 expected. So winner for today. Thank you.
x
Just opted in – the £15 is a separate bonus for your initial deposit to Games. Don’t know if this will affect the £10 for the £1,000,000 giveaway though.
Hi Gail,
Yeah I think slicksid is right- sorry for the oversight there. I’ve just had a look at the terms and cons for the initial bonus and it’s not great- a large play-through and restrictions on the games qualifying. I’d recommend pinging them a brief email saying you’d like to forfeit this bonus to play the £1m giveaway, which would still be worthwhile. Their customer service is normally pretty good so I’d be surprised if they don’t let you do this. Let us know how it goes. Good luck, MC.
Hi Mousecliff. Good call. I played last night, lost 2.22 playing “bouncy balls” and now today I gained a tenner!
And I can withdraw already. Do I wait for the next game to start or will I get another tenner if I play bouncy balls again tonight?
Thanks!
Game over if you withdraw, but if you play that tenner through once (doing the same thing) then when next game starts (Friday I think) repeat process for another tenner and then again for another a few days later in the same way.
Ah, just reread that and somehow missed the playing again question- no, just one tenner per game. Hope that didn’t lose you anything. I think I got it wrong about having to play through the bonus tenner. Not entirely sure so will see how it goes tomorrow.
When does the £10 bonus get credited? Deposited £10, played through and am £2.90 up but no additional £10 credited yet!
‘Once a player qualifies for a £10 free bonus, it will be credited directly to the Games/Bingo balance the next day.’ Have another look?
Just finished playing through again. Not so good. Balance down to £14.58, so still up a bit. Good fun this
Up 1.5 points on the day due to Chookie Royale winning and drifting to 8.5 with BOG advised as always. Not the best collection of efforts from the rest though Neige Dantan was second and Thecornishcowbuy a close third. A couple of the others had chances but were generally disappointing. Pleasingly now up to a new points high with a profit of 82.27 points.
Four for Thursday, all at Kempton-
5.35 Focail Eile e/w morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records, 0.5 win, 0.5 place)
6.35 Fosters Road e/w 8 Bet365/BetVictor (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
and Celtic Charlie e/w 10 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
7.05 Time Medicean e/w 9 PaddyPower
Great start today, Mousefair! Just got home from work to find Focail Eile had done the business
Cheers,
Stuart
Yeah I’ve had a habit of losing the early bets and winning the later ones- for no reason at all other than the way it goes, as far as I can make out- so it was good for the stress levels to have it the other way round today. Shame it couldn’t be added to, but feel quite good about tomorrow’s selections… Fate, now please don’t be tempted…
I just noticed I called you Mousefair lol. Apologies.
No worries- I’m sure we’ve all been called worse things! If tomorrow draws a blank you can call me what you want
Hi Mousecliff
I sent an email as you suggested and received reply as below. I now have account showing bonus £15 and withdrawal amount increased by £10. All looking very good for me right now. I take it that I play another game tomorrow using the £10 again and do the same for the last game and this should see another £20 added to my withdrawal account? This sounds too good to be true!
love you Mousecliff xx
email from Bet265 -
The 1,000,000 Slots Giveaway bonus is credited to the account as cash, and this was credited to your account today, so it will not affect your opening bonus on games which is still active on the account.
On your games opening bonus, you need to spend the full deposited £10.00 on non-restricted games before the bonus is released to your account as playable. Number 12 of the terms and conditions on the following page will give you a list of the restricted games:
Yep that seems to be the case. For the intro bonus you’d have to play the 15 and your 10 deposit through 20 times (so staking 500!) which isn’t so good, so personally I’d ditch that, but up to you. I’ll be doing it too so will update if I’ve got anything wrong.
Just started bouncy balls tonight and am £1.27 down. ok…!!! I`ll still get a £10 bonus tomorrow now or am I too late. If so I`ve only lost £1.27. Bit of a newbie at slots as you`ve already guessed. What do I do next whilst waiting for mouse`s selections?
Ta much respect, Steve.
Yep as long as you opted in, should be fine. Next one- Clover Rollover- starts tomorrow. Not exactly a veteran at these myself, but spotted it so thought I’d share- I blame the weather!
Up 1.37 today with Focail Eile winning and best-priced at 8 at 10am with Bet365 and backed each-way returning 5.37. (Two non-runners had pulled out earlier.) The other three couldn’t add to this, all being a bit adrfit of the places in 6th, 7th and 8th.
6 singles and a Super Yankie for Friday, all at Wolverhampton-
3.55 Harrogate Fair e/w 11 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
4.55 Marmot Bay morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records)
5.55 Grey Mirage 4.5 PaddyPower (4 Bet365/WillHill)
6.25 My Single Malt 7 Bet365/BetVictor
6.55 Fayr Fall 6 PaddyPower (5.5 BetVictor)
7.25 Another Citizen 4.5 BetVictor (4.33 Bet365)
For the Super Yankie, all above without Harrogate Fair. 26 bets X 0.04 points = 1.04 staked. I’ll use BOG with best odds combination at 10am for records.
Other replies to follow shortly, but need a breather first…
Once again a price dropped around posting time- Grey Mirage going down to 4 four minutes after posting, so that’s the price I’ll use for records.
And now its become a non runner. So I just put on a normal e/w yankee with the other 4. I guess that is right?
Yeah me too, albeit win only rather than e/w. As was advising to bet in the morning as no prices were available for Marmot last night, I’d guess that’s what others would do and my inclination would be that’s how the results should be recorded? Open to thoughts- unlikely to be hugely important, but would rather be clear before the first one runs.
Sorry for late reply. Yeah, makes sense. I did the win only.
Need another winner tonight.
Cheers,
Stuart
Using johnye_pt’s spreadsheet there have been 161 x winners, 170 x 2nd, and 153 x 3rd spots, but not knowing how many runners set off in each of the races it’s impossible to know how many of the 3rd’s were actually in the frame. These figures are out of 1232 selections.
NAP’s fair better of course – out of 150 selections there were 31 winners, 19 x 2nd’s, and 22 x 3rd’s – roughly half in the frame with 20% of selections winning.
Good tipping by anyone’s standards !
Keep it up MC
Regards
Lucky
Or for me 90 winners (23.77%) , 70 2nds, 54 3rds from 379 selections for my single win bets (56.46 in top 3 at odd average odds over 6).
56.46%, that should be
Apologies MouseCliff. Please ignore the above information as I’ve posted it on the wrong site – it should have gone on one of your competitors.
That’s what happens when you have more than one Betting Rant page open at a time.
Sorry again.
Cheers
Lucky
To be honest, I’m amazed I haven’t done that myself, so no need to worry.
Just played through £10 on Clover Rollover. No autoplay here so spun 20 times on 5 lines at 10p a line. Lost £5.70 but will get another £10 tomorrow!
I did the same as you and returned £14.80 for my £10. Final game on Monday.
Not so keen on this Clover Rollover, lost about £7 on my £10 so only a £3 profit this time, hope the last game is more profitable!
I lost around £3 on Clover Rollover first time around. But when I played through my £10 bonus I managed to break even. So I am standing at £19.18 from my original tenner. Near 100% returns not to be sniffed at
Yeah, was a bit of a rubbish one but still a profit’s a profit, I suppose. Stuart, I’m now wondering if it has to be played through as mine has gone straight to withdrawable. It says, ‘The £10 free bonus will be removed seven days after it has been credited, if a player has not staked on Games during these seven days.’ I interpreted from that, that it has to be played first, but maybe not. One to go and will try and root out another later in the week.
Get in! Good win for Another Citizen and another winning day
Keep em coming Mousecliff!!
Up 2.05 points today with wins by Marmot Bay (2.1 at 10am) and Another Citizen (off at 5) under an outstanding ride by Ted Durcan, overcoming a wide draw and taking the chance to break away perfectly. Fayr Fall was third, My Single Malt 5th and Harrogate Fair 8th. Grey Mirage was a non-runner.
As Grey Mirage was withdrawn prior to when I’d suggested placing the Super Yankie, I’m considering it as a Yankie, placed in the normal way (11 x 0.09) which saw a small loss of 0.05. (Had it been placed earlier as the Super Yankie it would have made a small profit.)
Wolverhampton looks pretty poor tomorrow, so just two bets-
7.50 Chasin’ Rainbows e/w 13 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
8.50 Mack’s Sister 6 Bet365
Another Citizen was very impressive. one to watch
chasin dropped to 7′s already! you lumped on mouse?
haha! I’d still keep it e/w largely because of our old friend Percythepinto but should be in the mix. Be interesting to see how it’s priced elsewhere in the morning and now might be worth holding back until then to see if it can be beaten. I think it was overpriced at 13 as it ticks a lot of boxes and has been tipped by SportingLife too, though AtTheRaces have gone for Fushicho which is a bit of a strange one IMO.
As far as records go, as I have done the last two nights, I’ll use the lower price, especially with such a drop and no others available though it was there until half nine. (I normally leave it until later to save screenshots of price movements and notice these changes then.)
Up 25.99 points in November from 112.12 staked at an ROI of +23.18%.
superb performance.
Great performance, yeah, under very difficult conditions. Well done, Mousecliff
Great stuff Mousecliff, keep them coming!
Two bets already advised for Saturday in previous post, but no bets for Sunday- Kempton’s card is for NH runners only- so next bets 9pm Sunday night for Monday which looks like an interesting day so there should certainly be a few selections.
On Saturday, Wolverhampton was abandoned before the two selections’ races. All being well though, Monday should be a busy day.
8 singles and a Yankie for Monday-
1.55 Wolves Ivestar 7 Bet365
and Chester Deelyte e/w 21 Bet365 (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
2.20 Kempton The Wonga Coup 4.5 Bet365
2.30 Wolves Griffin Point 4 Bet365
3.00 Wolves Rakticate morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records)
3.30 Wolves Italian Riviera 2.1 Boyles (2 PaddyPower, 1.9 others)
5.00 Wolves Balti’s Sister 3.75 Boyles/PaddyPower/WillHill/BetVictor
5.50 Kempton Belinsky e/w 12 Bet365 (11 BetVictor)
For the Yankie 11 bets X 0.09 points = 0.99 points staked, win only, using The Wonga Coup, Rakticate, Italian Riviera and Balti’s Sister. (If one is a non-runner go for a Trixie (the remaining runners in 3 doubles and a treble… 4 bets X 0.25 points = 1 point.)
Forgot to add that for the Yankie will use best BOG combination of odds at 10am.
End of weeks stats, albeit a quiet one with the weather getting in the way- up 4.92 points with 16.99 staked and 21.91 returned. 11 single win bets had 3 winners, 1 in second and 2 in third, returning 15.60 for a 4.60 profit. 5 each-way bets had 1 winner, returning 5.37 for a profit of 0.37 and a Yankie staked 0.99, returned 0.94 for a 0.05 loss.
Overall
Staked 500.17
Returned 585.86
Profit 85.69
ROI +17.13%
Just played the final game “big top something or other”. Not so good. Only won £3.50 for my tenner. Still, running total is £12.68. So when they add another tenner tomorrow i will have “won” £12.68 for nothing. Thanks, Mousecliff, for the heads up on that.
Now back to finding us winners on the track.
Cheers,
Stuart
I also done “big top” managed to scrape 40p for my tenner, so you done better than me.
At least you didn`t do what I did and play “clover rollover” again and wipe out all my profits like a complete prat.
Down 0.16 points today with a couple of winners and a couple of not quites. Details to follow.
The Only-Good-Weather track at Southall is out of action for the rest of the year, which just leaves the Most-Weather-As-Long-As-It’s-Not-Too-Cold at Wolverhampton for 3 bets for Tuesday-
1.40 Fame Again 3 PaddyPower/WillHill
5.10 Precision Five morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records)
Also, 1 point on a straight forecast for the 2.10- Projectisle 1st, Sofis Spirit 2nd. Results to starting prices. For most bookies choose Projectisle in normal way, then add Sofis and find ‘forecast’ in betting box. With Bet365 scroll down to beneath card. For PaddyPower click Fore/Tricast and make choices. Any problems ask and I’ll pop back later. (Expect Projectisle to win this but should be odds-on and Sofis credentials are the best of the rest, so think this is the best value to be found in this race.)
Like today’s selections Mousecliff have also had a word for Storming Glaz in the 4.10pm should run well and win at worse be in the frame.
I see we both had the same fate today. Oh well, a mere drop in the ocean of bets we’ll place, another day tomorrow…
Thanks for that slots game tip. got on for the last 3 games have just played last game and have 27.65 in my wallet with I guess another 10 from the final bonus to come. Nice return for less time than it takes to brew a coffee
Lucky you, Astral. I ended up with a £12.68 profit which I just transferred back to my sports account. Looking forward to your next money for nothing tip, Mousecliff
Thanks
Thanks from me too, £24 profit in the end from virtually no effort at all.
Good to hear. Will see if anything else appeals, and if so pass on, later in the week.
(Part One) Nothing returned from today’s three. Here’re three for Weds for now, with more (probably another 2 or 3) to follow at 10pm.
2.30 Lingfield Livia’s Dream 5 Bet365/PaddyPower/BetVictor
3.00 Lingfield Epic Storm 4.33 PaddyPower (4 other BOGs)
3.50 Kempton Ancient Greece 5 PaddyPower/Boyles/BetFred/BetVictor
Three to add for Wednesday-
12.30 Lingfield Sonko morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records)
2.00 Lingfield Purley Queen e/w 9 Bet365, 8.5 PaddyPower (0.5 win, 0.5 place)
6.50 Kempton See The Storm morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records)
Housekeeping for Monday and Tuesday-
(Fame Again refused to run today, so was a non-runner, so down 2 for Tuesday rather than 3.)
Monday- wins for The Wonga Coup and Balti’s Sister, though both suffered small non-runner deductions from bets placed the night before, so returned 4.15 and 3.47. The best combination of odds for the Yankie was from StanJames, returning 1.21.
Rakticate and Griffin Point were close 2nds and Ivestar 3rd. Italian Riviera was given an indecisive ride by Luke Morris- a reluctant front-runner and neither pushed nor held- and finished fourth. Both of the each-way bets had a bit of misfortune in-running, though that was unlikely to have changed the outcome. With the virtue of hindsight, Chester Deelyte was a poor bet with Amy Ryan onboard when a more experienced jockey was needed and this is the sort of indication of intent (or lack of) I try to pick up on, so I apologize for that selection.
Tuesday- Sofi’s Spirit won the 2.10 at Wolves, so was the ‘best of the rest’ but Projectisle disappointed and failed to push on in the grand manner he had previously when well position and finished third. Precision Five had a three-way battle which he lost and was third.
Had a place bet on Precision Five and got 2.11 with betfair so had 20/80 stake split so got a profit on day
thanks again Mousecliff for Slots Game tip. Now have over £40 in withdrawable balance plus £15 in Bonus. Unsure what to do with the Bonus as yet. Bet365 have also sent me an email with a code for a £5 bonus bet on Sports for this weekend. Now if you give me a really good winner that would be fantastic!!!
xx
Gail, I’d take the profit and run, but add another £30 to it by looking at today’s email from Matt. The turnover for the other 15 games bonus means you’ll probably hand some back rather than make any more. As for picking a really good winner… I’m trying, grrr
A poor day with nothing returned from the 6 selections. There’s track maintenance at Wolverhamton, so it’s a run of Lingfield coming up, but there will be bets for Sunday this week for the first time in a while.
Three for Thursday-
11.55 Amelia Hull e/w morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records, 0.5 place, 0.5 win)
1.55 Marmot Bay morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records, 0.5 place, 0.5 win)
2.55 Alaskan Bullet 4.5 PaddyPower/WillHill/Boyles
Another blank today from the three picks. I’ll watch them back later to see if anything can be gleaned from them, whilst hoping to bounce back tomorrow with three selections all ridden by Adam Kirby.
Three for Friday, all at Lingfield-
1.20 Aviso e/w morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records, 0.5 win, 0.5 place)
3.05 Forest Edge 3 PaddyPower/BetVictor
3.40 Thecornishcowboy morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records)
I thought I’d give a few parts of the reasoning behind the first selection, which is a bit of a long-shot…
This is an interesting race in that an argument can be made against every runner. It may be that it goes to one of those at the head of the betting but, with reasons to oppose them, there may be value elsewhere.
Likely favourite Super Say hasn’t won for over 18 months and whilst most of those races have been in Ireland, so a little difficult to gauge a comparison here, many of those have been on the AW at Dundalk over 8-10f and going close a few times, but not pulling off a win. The one race in England at Wolves last month repeated this- a class 6, 8f as is this race- saw him a beaten favourite under Kirby. A recent change of trainer, to Jamie Osborne who has a respectable record at this time of year and at Lingfield, but no more than that. That said, the booking of Jamie Spencer may be significant.
Tornado Force’s last race was in July- taken home 62 lengths adrift- and the previous race to that was in Feb this year. Dropped in class and a change of trainer since, but a punt into uncertainty.
Noguchi hasn’t run for 13 months and another having first run for new trainer.
Anychanceofabirdie- 2 places in 4 runs. Jockey Martin Lane has a dreadful record at Lingfield.
Foxhaven’s last run was also back in July- 25 lengths adrift, 45 lengths the time before. Last win in 2010. As above.
Electrician is to be ridden by Georgean Buckell, an apprentice having only her 5th run on the AW. Adrift by some way in each race, admittedly against better company, since winning under William Buick last year.
Aviso- has been racing over hurdles in last few months with mixed results and last won 3 races ago in September. Won several class 5 and 6 races on the AW last winter. Kirby, who has been in great form and seems to have a plan for each race, rides for a Dave Evans stable with a solid record at Lingfield and generally on the AW at this time of year. Weight and distance will not be a problem. Still a single point bet, but with a lot of uncertainty over the more favoured, this is worth an e/w punt at odds likely to be 15+.
Back on form, matey. We will forgive you the long shot. Just voted for you to stay in.
Cheers,
Stuart
Cheers. Yeah, just missed out on place money in 4th with that one, but 5.75 pts up today so will settle for that!
Up 5.75 today with two wins from three selections. Aviso came in fourth, a length and 3/4 from the places but finished strongly. Had it not been for being boxed in for much of the race, he may have landed a blow here, but with Lingfield’s relatively gentle curves often keeping closed gaps which would open on the other tracks, Kirby had little choice than to sit back and switch to the outside by which time the leaders had flown. He followed that though with two great rides- a front-running comfortable victory on Forest Edge, off at 3.75, followed by a smoothly executed move through the field on Thecornishcowboy, 5 at 10am this morning, overcoming a wide draw and just holding on.
Four singles and a Trixie for Saturday, all at Lingfield (and a decent offer for Saturday only, to follow shortly afterwards)-
11.35 Paddy’s Satantes 6.5 BetVictor (6 Bet365)
12.40 Rossetti 5 Bet365/BetVictor
1.40 Beat The Bell morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records)
3.25 Silly Billy morning prices (best BOG at 10am for records)
For the Trixie, Rossetti, Beat The Bell and Silly Billy. It’s 4 bets- 3 doubles and a treble, each 0.25 points = 1 point staked. I’ll use BOG with best combination at 10am for records.
And, of course, thank-you to those who have voted!
Sadly Rosetti has been made a non runner
Yep, a shame that, so it becomes a 1 point double on Beat The Bell and Silly Billy. I try to use multiples as a way of boosting returns for low odds selections so at least it’s the two lowest odds, and most likely, remaining.
Well done Mouse. 5pts up. Bit perturbed over the BET 365 Gaming thingy. I`ve received a £10 bonus every day from the word go Nov 27th. Apparently I can no longer receive bonuses as I had my last bonus on the 4th December and I`ve been told that I`m not eligible for a further bonus during the qualifying period. Have they changed the rules?
It was meant to be one per round, rather than day, so sounds like they’ve been nice to you! I saw that you’d played the wrong game one day, but hope you came out of it infront?
My fault mouse I should have read the map and took my compass. Only six quid down but kicking and screaming. Keep up the good work chap.
Offer for Saturday only, which isn’t a guaranteed winner, but is without risk and doesn’t have any strange bouncing slot things.
You can’t do this until between 9am and 3.05pm on Saturday, also the info won’t be on their site until then, but SportingBet will be best-priced on Sprinter Sacre in the 3.05 at Sandown. Currently that is 1.44 and only a touch higher on Betfair. These have been close for the last few hours and bookies actually ahead of Betfair for much of it. With best-price, I’d expect this to be very close if not ahead of Betfair.
Their offer is that they’ll pay out at evens if Sprinter Sacre wins by 10 lengths or more (it’s a 2 mile chase with 7 runners). So, in the morning, back Sprinter on SportingBet for up to £50, lay on Betfair to return £50 or thereabouts if he loses. With these low odds if Sprinter wins, liability will be less than £25 on Betfair and that’ll be won on the bet with SportingBet. If he loses you win the lay and lose on SportingBet. If he wins by 10 lengths plus, you’ll be paid out at Evens, having laid at less than 1.5 and be £25+ up.
Sanctuaire must run for it to be valid. Please do read the terms and conditions so you’re reassured. 6 of the last 9 times the favourite has won this one, by the way, so it’s going to be in with a shout if pace-setter Sanctuaire falters.
Be aware if not a member that SportingBet have a ‘risk-free’ intro bet offer, details of which are on their site and you might want to get that out of the way first as normally offers cannot be combined. (It’s place a bet up to £50, above odds of 1.5 and if it loses you get a £50 bet to have another go. You can place the first bet on something, lay against it for a bit less so that if it wins you’re in profit and if it loses you get a free bet which you can also lay off so that you’re in profit either way.) For intro offer can use PayPal and other deposit methods but not some e-wallets.
Hope that all makes sense. If not, let me know and I’ll try to help!
If you get in on it just now the odds on betfair are 1.48 giving you a decent matched bet lets hope Sprinter Sacre puts in a good performance.
Great start. I had a little treble and a Trixie too.. Fingers crossed
Always good to be in profit by midday, but nothing to add, alas
If anyone took advantage of the SportingBet offer, it was a winner and the extra will be added to accounts on Monday. Bets for Sunday to follow tonight.
Mousecliff, you are the best! Not only giving consistently good racing tips but also providing this. Another good boost to the coffers
Up 2.5 points on the day with Paddy’s Satantes winning. Rossetti was a non-runner, Silly Billy finished well but had got a bit stuck on the rail and Beat The Bell wasn’t far away in fourth.
Three singles for Sunday and a Trixie, all at Lingfield and using best BOG prices at 10am-
12.20 Brandywell Boy
2.20 Harry Buckle
2.50 Tatting
The Trixie, all 3 in doubles and a treble- 4 bets X 0.25 points = 1 point staked. Best BOG combination at 10am for records.
Bet365 have their football offer tomorrow which is effectively a free £30. After tomorrow, though, we enter the final week and the focus will be firmly on the selections and the record over the last 4 and a bit months. A few targets are in sight, so hopefully the coming days can bring a strong finish to the competition.
I just bet 50 on Sprinter Sacre and left it. Of there was ever a dead cert.. That was it. And won by more than 10 lengths
Tonight’s bets will be up a little earlier than usual at 7.30pm.
Down 2.09 today with Harry Buckle winning, 1.91 at 10am, but Tatting 5th and Brandywell Boy 4th.
This week, down exactly 5 points with 30.99 staked and 25.99 returned. 22 single win bets had a profit of 2.78 points, returning 24.78 with 6 winners, 3 second places and 4 in third. Nothing to show for 5 e/w bets and 1.21 returned from 3.99 staked on other bets.
Overall
Staked 531.16
Returned 611.85
Profit 80.69
ROI +15.19%
Phase 4
Staked 97.96
Returned 120.13
Profit 22.17
ROI +22.63%
Five singles for Monday, all at Lingfield once again-
12.40 Sofis Spirit morning prices
1.40 Lockentanks morning prices
2.10 Robin Hood’s Bay 3.25 PaddyPower/WillHill
2.40 Fabled City 8 Bet365
3.10 Gung Ho Jack 4.5 Bet365
As these are posted earlier than normal I’d particularly recommend checking oddsschecker.com as more may add their prices later in the evening.
Down 2.25 on a bit of an annoying day. Sofis Spirit won fairly comfortably, going off at 2.75, started things off well, but a 2,3,4 and 5 from the others followed when better could’ve been expected.
Again 5 singles for Lingfield for Tuesday. Only Bet365 have priced any of these races, so will take the best BOG price at 10am for each for records-
12.00 Thecornishcowboy
12.30 Mack’s Sister
1.00 Rogue Reporter
1.30 Restless Bay
3.30 Barachiel
Hey MC,
Just want to say congratulations on making it to the final and best of luck with the run in to the final vote.
You and BFP have both been amazing competitors and I look forward to what comes out of this in the new year.
Cheers
Dean
Up 2.99 points today with 2 winners, a second, a third and a last from today’s 5 choices. Thecornishcowboy was 2.75 at 10am with 5 different BOG bookies, but reduced to 2.49 by a non-runner. This brought up 100 winners for the single win bets which was nicely appropriate as he’s probably been involved in more of the bets than any other, largely against in the summer and for on the AW more recently. He’s listed to run again on Wednesday, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s withdrawn and if he does run he is now carrying too much to be of interest especially after having to work hard today to come from the back of the field and then battle to hold on having hit the front before moving clear.
Mack’s Sister soon made this 101 in a tight victory, drifting in price to return 5.5 with the BOGs. Rogue Reporter (3rd) and Restless Bay (2nd by a neck) went close, both backed in-running at under 1.5, before Barachiel brought up the rear.
Unless there’s some hasty rescheduling, the last bets will be for Saturday as there’s no AW on Sunday, so with the overall profit currently standing at 81.43 points, it feels these remaining days have greater significance than normal, so hopefully they’ll build on this total.
Six singles for Wednesday-
1.30 Lingfield Landesherr morning prices (best BOG price at 10am for records)
2.30 Lingfield Schoolmaster 6 Bet365 (5.5 Boyles, 5 others)
3.00 Lingfield Stand Guard* 5.5 PaddyPower/BetVictor (5 WillHill/Boyles)
4.45 Kempton Thecornishcockney** 5.5 BetFred/PaddyPower/BetVictor (5 others)
5.15 Kempton Percythepinto*** morning prices (best BOG price at 10am for records)
5.45 Kempton Clapped morning prices (best BOG price at 10am for records)
* not to be confused with Standpoint in same race
** not to be confused with Thecornishcowboy, mentioned above
*** nothing else sounds like Percy
Schoolmaster price dropped whilst typing, 5.5 still available so will use that for records.
Up 2 points today with one winner, two in second, two down further away and a non-runner. Stand Guard drifted to 7 with BOG, Thecornishcockney was a neck away in 2nd, Clapped 2 lenghts down also second, Percy and Landesherr 7th and 8th with Schoolmaster a non-runner.
Three for Thursday at Kempton-
5.30 Storm King 5 Bet365/PaddyPower/BetVictor
6.00 Equitania 2.75 BetVictor (2.62 PaddyPower, 2.5 Bet365)
7.00 Kingscroft 6.5 Boyles (6 PaddyPower/WillHill)
Down half a point on the day. Equitania’s price dropped shortly after posting to 2.62 then to 2.5 by 9.30pm and that’s the price I’ll use. It continued to fall and went off heavily odds-on. Richard Hughes took no chances, pushing on from the front to win comfortably. Earlier he’d given Storm King every chance heading into the final furlong, but this wasn’t taken as he was outrun to finish fourth. Silvestre De Sousa gave the usually prominent Kingscroft too much to do and despite finishing strongly came in fifth.
Up 82.93 points overall then, with two days of betting left (for me, as there won’t be any AW on Sunday).
Five singles for Friday-
1.10 Lingfield Pippy e/w 12 Bet365 (10 PaddyPower/BetVictor, 0.5 win, 05. place)
1.45 Lingfield Red Mystique morning prices (Best BOG price at 10am for records)
6.20 Wolves Chasin’ Rainbows e/w morning prices (Best BOG price at 10am for records, 05.win, 0.5 place)
6.50 Wolves Green Mitas e/w morning prices (Best BOG price at 10am for records, 05.win, 0.5 place)
7.20 Wolves strong Man e/w morning prices (Best BOG price at 10am for records, 05.win, 0.5 place)
Bet365 have priced all of these, but I’d expect a touch better will be available in the morning, though I would get on Pippy as soon as possible. The Dascombe/Kingscote combination have an excellent record on the AW and Richard Kingscote has one of the best strike rates on this track where many, particularly the inexperienced, ride hoping for unforthcoming gaps. That 2 of the top 3 in the market are ridden by claimers (and the other is yet to place) bodes well. Pippy was a course and distance winner under Kingscote in a higher class in August and should be there or thereabouts again.
Pippy’s priced dropped whilst typing but 10 still available with PaddyP and BetVictor so that’s the price I’ll use. Correction to the above- the August win was at Wolves and not Lingfield.
Chasin just pipped there .
Yeah, didn’t have much luck in-running. A plucky effort
Time for the last selections from me for this competition. As it’s the last day, I’m going to try and add a bit of spice and have some low-stakes other bets too (all of which will be included in competition results, of course).
Up 0.25 points today with Strong Man winning and Chasin’ Rainbows second, both backed each-way. Chasin’ had to battle his way through and did admirably to just lose by a neck, returning 1.25 after drifting to a starting price of 7 in the last few minutes. Strong Man lived up to his name (well, the strong bit as he’s obviously a horse), winning from the front and holding on well. Pippy didn’t ever settle and didn’t look like being involved at any stage, Green Mitas looked well positioned but then also seemed to get a bit flustered and faded and Red Mystique, a bit like Storm King last night, was given a chance but didn’t take it and finished fourth.
Saturday is a long day at Wolverhampton as it’s inherited Southwell’s afternoon card to add to the existing evening meet. The afternoon is still incorrectly listed under Southwell in some places, but is definately at Wolves.
Six singles-
2.05 Lindoro 4.5 Bet365
3.15 Dozy Joe morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records)
4.50 De Rigeur 4.33 BetVictor (4 Bet365)
7.20 Rakticate morning prices (Best BOG at 10am for records)
8.50 Forest Edge 5 PaddyPower (4.5 Bet365, 4 BetVictor)
9.20 Angelo Polizia 4.5 Bet365
Plus an each-way Trixie using Lindoro, Dozy Joe and De Rigeur- 3 doubles and a treble. As it’s e/w this means 8 bets each at 1/8 of a point each so 1 point in total.
And a win Trixie using Rakticate, Forest Edge and Angelo Polizia. 4 bets each 1/4 of a point, so also 1 point in total. Will use BOG bookie with best combination at 10am for records for these.
Finally, 4 reverse forecasts. 1/4 point on each race (each is effectively 2 bets so stake should be 1/8 of a point) so another point in total. (If trouble with this, see post on 3rd Dec.) Results to SP.
2.05 Lindoro and Nant Saeson
3.15 Dozy Joe and Kimbali
4.50 De Rigeur and English Summer
8.50 Forest Edge and OGorman
9 points in total on the day.
I’ll post results at some point over the weekend and then all the stats by Monday at the latest, ready for the big vote! As always thanks to those who have followed and commented over the last twenty weeks and hopefully we can finish with a profitable day!
Strong Man was 6 at 10am this morning before being well backed later in the day.
Ogorman a non-runner so the RF becomes a win single at SP on Forest Edge. (A heft deduction likely on the Forest Edge single unless it drifts later as Ogorman was at low odds when withdrawn.)
Great afternoon Mousey! You have to be the winner of this comp based just on results. Looking forward to more winners tonight
Glad you added “for this competition” in your opening sentence. I need your great tips to help swell my bank. I hope we do not lose time sorting out the service. Maybe you can just carry on giving free tips on here? Please
Thanks for your consistently good tipping. Well done!
Stuart
Appreciate your comments and support over the last month or two, Stuart. Who knows how the vote will go, especially as the last one just a week or so ago was very close, but fingers crossed.
I do need a bit of a break as it’s been almost non-stop since the end of July and I think that’ll be beneficial and also want to look at a couple of areas to see if any little tweaks need making or monitoring, but hopefully it’ll be a short one
I second what sjrmac said. Wouldn’t want to wait too long for your service to start up as we would be missing out on potential/probable profits. Get it sorted now Matt, it’s obvious who the winner is.
Thanks BM, hopefully the voting will agree
Mousecliff, just like to say what a grand job you have done throughout the comp, unfortunatly i didnt get on it early doors but it has been great since i did.
As others have mentioned, i hope u can continue this service in some form ,whether free on this site or a paid service, i for one will definately continue to follow.
All the best
Thanks for that Leeroy, and better late than never, I hope. Yep, hopefully to continue soon too!
What a day it’s been today! Hats off to you, sir!
Well done Mousecliff.
You definitely deserve to be crowned the winner of this competition.
Compliments of the season and a prosperous new year.
Cheers.
Skylablu
Cheers and merry xmas too!
Wow, have to agree with Skylablu and the others. Fantastic work, Mousecliff!
Cheers and best wishes
Thanks for that. Best wishes to you too.
Well I am now hooked. Put my first e/w trixie on yesterday and what a result! Well done Mousecliff. Better still is that I am using the free money given to me by Bet365. ((o:
Missing the tips already. Come on guys get the service sorted.
Feliz Navidad/Happy Christmas
Gail x
haha, glad that free money is still going. Thanks for comments, Gail.
Not to worry! There will be info in the Betting Rant next week about arrangements for signing up to the winner’s service. Obviously a small break in the service can’t be helped but hopefully we’ll have it up and running (whoever wins) very quickly.
Well done Mousecliff, a tough run and hard fought race, just waiting on the steward posting the results.
Afternoon All,
and I’ll get back once I’ve finished the stats and taken a look at it all later on.
Just flying through with a results update for Saturday. Cheers for the messages once more- pleased we ended on a high
Quite a bit to get through, so I’ll try to be as brief as possible.
6 singles- 3 winners, 1 in second and 2 in third.
Dozy Joe was 3.75 at 10am with Bet365 and BetVictor, though a touch higher minutes earlier
De Rigeur was priced at 4.33 when advised which was a bit of a shame as he went out to 7 at 10am before shortening again
Forest Edge was 5 when advised but brought down to 3.8 after a couple of non-runners.
6 staked, 11.88 returned
The e/w Trixie, placed at 10am returned pretty similar amount across a few bookies, but using StanJames, the win part gave 2.84 and the place part 2.06. Total of 4.90 returned from 1 staked.
Nothing from the 1 staked on a win trixie with only 1 winning.
Reverse Forecasts (0.25 on each)
2.05 Lindoro and Nant Saeson- 3rd and 1st. Not quite.
3.15 Dozy Joe and Kimbali- 1st and nowhere (Kimbali didn’t want to leave stalls and was 20 lengths or so adfrift when deciding to run)
4.50 De Rigeur and English Summer- 1st and 2nd. Returned 1.31
8.50 Forest Edge and OGorman- became a single to SP on Forest Edge after OGorman withdrew, won returning 0.75.
Total 2.06 returned, 1 staked.
Total total 9 staked, 18.84 returned, up 9.84 points on the day.
So, the overall figures for the competition…
Staked 563.16 points
Returned 656.18 points
Profit 93.02 points
ROI +16.52%
Dear lord MC only 9.84 pts could you not manage ten lol. Been an awesome ride mate and I’m looking forward to continuing the journey. David B
Becks? Cheers Davy, yep let’s hope it continues very soon!
Various Stats and Thoughts
Overall
Staked 563.16 points
Returned 656.18 points
Profit 93.02 points
ROI +16.52%
Monthly Summaries
Figures are points profit/loss. (I started on 31st July with one bet which lost.)
Aug +16.58
Sept +42.85
Oct +1.27
Nov +25.99
Dec (to 16th) +7.33
Average of 20.21 points profit per month, or £202.10 to £10 stakes, which equates to £2425.16 per year at present rate.
Weekly Summaries
Week Twenty +12.33
Week Nineteen -5.00
Week Eighteen +4.92
Week Seventeen +19.00
Week Sixteen +3.25
Week Fifteen -4.62
Week Fourteen -4.52
Week Thirteen -3.21
Week Twelve +18.97
Week Eleven +0.14
Week Ten -6.65
Week Nine +0.47
Week Eight +2.00
Week Seven +1.11
Week Six +41.15
Week Five -11.7
Week Four +36.95
Week Three -7.25
Week Two +3.68
Week One -8
By Bet Type
Win Singles
Staked 430
Returned 509.74
Profit 79.74
ROI +18.54%
1st: 106 (24.65%)
2nd: 78 (18.14%)
3rd: 63 (14.65%)
Top 3: 247 (57.44%)
More finished first and second than outside of the top 3 (just).
‘Other’ bets (multiples, forecasts etc.)
Staked 41.16
Returned 49.72
Profit 8.56
ROI +20.80%
Happy with those figures, however the each-way bets were not so good- making 4.72 points profit from 92 bets. Interestingly, if these had been backed to win then this increases to a profit of 16.60 points, also at an ROI of 18%. The each-way element is something I’ve never been entirely comfortable with and requires a bit of thought.
Another area I’ll be looking at is introducing a slightly tiered staked system. By this I mean keeping 1 point win bets as the majority of bets, but having the flexibility of increasing a few outstanding selections to 1.5 or 2 points and reducing others to 0.5 or even 0.25 on occasions. I think this would make a slight improvement, especially lowering the stake with the some of the long shots which have been bet each-way and increasing the return on some strongly fancied lower-odds selections.
The figures above also mask a bit of a downturn during mid-October to early November. In this period, with the end of season looming, there was a mixture of very low-quality and highly competitive events. With my premise of trying to find trainers and jockeys with records that favour the selections by either targeting or happening to flourish at certain times and in certain conditions, it’s logical that this edge is reduced when the higher-profile and more lucrative races and events are taking place as the incentive is increased for all. Again, having the capacity to vary stakes will enable keeping an interest on certain race days but reducing the risk, thus reducing fluctuations.
MC my sincerest congratulations, I have been following and voting for BFP to be honest, but merit were it’s due.
I have taken the time to look back over the comp and your results have been fantastic.
Any future service you launch you can count me in as I will add you and hopefully BFP to a portfolio I am trying to build (I am a relative Newbie to this game but gotta start somewhere).
Anyway well done MC you are I am sure a deserved winner and I am certain BFP would wholeheartedly agree.
Wishing You And Your Family A Warm, Safe Merry Xmas, and a Prosperous New Year
woodyboyboy41
(aka Jowoody)
You too Jowoody, thanks for comments and think I read elsewhere that you’ve recently had an op (apologies if wrong person), so hope your recovery is going well.
Hi Mousecliff,
May I offer my congratulations on your superb results, very well done.
Having followed and voted for you from the start I had no doubt that you would see off the football guy and laying tipster, whom everyone seemed to be raving about earlier in the competition, and be locked in a battle with BFP.
Just so you know you can count on my vote this time also.
Hope you don’t mind but I would like to offer a couple of pieces of advice if I may regarding your thoughts above.
Nothing radical but it took a long time for me to appreciate the truth of these statements.
1) Bet to win only (including multiples) If you don’t think it can win why back it and if you think it can win then why dilute your stake with a place bet? I believe your own each way bets back this up.
2) Have a proper bet. If you believe a horse isn’t worth a one point bet then I don’t think it’s worth advising, just my opinion I know and of course you’re free to do as you wish but having small interest bets and just in case bets is a bad habit to get into and one of the things that seperates the serious punter from the fun punter is discipline and you have to be able to decide Yes that’s worth a bet or No it’s not, and not it’s worth half a bet or quarter of a bet as there’s no such thing.
Anyway looking forward to the new service (hopefully) and may I take this opportunity to wish everyone a very happy Christmas and sensational new year.
All The Best
Spireite
Hi Spireite,
Thanks for your comments and support- particularly pleased to hear you’ve continued to folow as it was you and Systematic who first commented when it was a very quiet thread so that was much appreciated.
I’ll give you a lengthy response on your points above once the Christmas chaos has passed. Meanwhile please be assured that I’m not going to be making great changes by any means or loosening what gets selected as a bet.
Best Wishes, MC
A great day again on Saturday Mousecliff, cheers for the tips! Some very impressive stats overall aswell and you have been very consistent throughout. I only started following at the start of October so I missed out on the brilliant month of September but I have still been delighted to make over 30pts profit in less than 3 months and I will definitely be interested in following your tips in the future if/when you have a service set up – as long as its reasonably priced of course!!
Will you be continuing to post selections here up until the service is active?
Thanks again and well done,
Paul
Cheers Paul and pleased you stuck with it after starting in Oct which was the most up and down month of the lot. The service starts in the first couple of days in Jan and with xmas, NY and getting it ready those will be the next tips. Best Wishes in the meantime, MC.
Hi Spireite,
“Hope you don’t mind but I would like to offer a couple of pieces of advice…” No, I don’t mind at all- on the contrary, I’d encourage thoughts and/or questions on anything which could do with more explanation or reflection.
Looking at your second point first:
“Have a proper bet. If you believe a horse isn’t worth a one point bet then I don’t think it’s worth advising, just my opinion I know and of course you’re free to do as you wish but having small interest bets and just in case bets is a bad habit to get into and one of the things that seperates the serious punter from the fun punter is discipline and you have to be able to decide Yes that’s worth a bet or No it’s not, and not it’s worth half a bet or quarter of a bet as there’s no such thing.”
Going back a step, another important factor is not simply having a bank to work within, but using this in the best way. One of the criteria in deciding the number of points needed in a bank is how likely fluctuations are and consequently more points will be needed for a service with high odds selections, which may be just as profitable but have a lower strike rate and more ups and downs, than one with lower odds and more consistency. This can be a difficulty if there’s a mixture within one service.
If each individual bet is seen as a small proportion of the needed bank then a run of bets at 12/1 or 20/1 can have a disproportionate affect on a bank set up for smaller odds and a bad run can take a while to claw back when the bets revert to 2/1 or 9/2 selections. This can happen in the weeks of and after major events. Being able to adjust stakes on these occasions and attempt to limit fluctuations is the major reason why I want to introduce this flexibility.
The secondary reason is that having made each day’s selections, all of which have been deemed to be worth backing, sometimes there’s a stand-out pick which merits a slightly larger investment and by having a bit of flexibility this should add a little bit to the returns and profit.
“Bet to win only (including multiples) If you don’t think it can win why back it and if you think it can win then why dilute your stake with a place bet? I believe your own each way bets back this up.”
I pretty much agree and part of the reason why many of those selections that have been each-way has been to try to reduce the risk of a run of longer-odds selections going a while without any return. With followers of the forum dipping in and out I wanted to keep it straight-forward to follow so kept 1 pt for all, but now going into an actual service, many of these are likely to be win only for smaller stakes.
But, there are some races where e/w makes some sense- a reliable horse who should be there or thereabouts with only a couple of other strong contenders (particularly if one is rightfully well favoured in the market) can create a near bet to nothing, for example.
This is an area to improve on and though largely agreeing, I don’t think it’d be wise to remove e/w backing entirely.
Hope all of that makes sense and whether you agree, disagree or somewhere in between, hope it helps explain the thinking behind this.
Festive good wishes, meanwhile!
First tips should be up tomorrow night (Thurs) at 9pm for Wolverhampton on Friday. In all probability not all races will have been priced then, so others may follow Friday morning at 9.30am. More info to follow.
Mousecliff just a few questions about the competition and service, I hope you can answer them:
- Do you have Final Overall Stats from the competition with BSP odds or a worksheet with BOGs and BSPs? I was thinking of doing a worksheet from all your tips to compare with your results but I simply don’t have enough free time…
- At what time do the races usually get priced in the morning? Is that the best time to place bets?
- What will be the min/max points per bet used? between 0.25pts and 2pts?
Thanks in advance
Hello johnye. I don’t know if you saw my reply to your comments on BFP’s thread, but as you’re using Betfair around midday, I’d suggest taking the price then rather than using BSP. I’m sure you appreciate my eyes are still firmly fixed on tomorrow, but the BSP returns were certainly profitable, but not as much as using earlier prices- pretty similar figures before commission compared with BOG. This difference is why I don’t recommend it and it’s not the best way to follow the service.
The better races tend to get priced first, some the night before others normally added between 8 and 10 in the morning. Yes, placing early is the best time but I wouldn’t anticipate a huge difference overall if you’re using Betfair at midday.
Up until now I’ve been using 1pt per selection, but yes that will now be between 0.25 and 2.
Hope that helps.
Probably not your responsibility Mousecliff – but as a subscriber, I trust I’ll receive my login details email sometime later today?
Yes, it’s in the process of being set up so should be along shortly. If nothing arrives in the next few hours please let me know.
Hi Mousecliff – didnt bet during T-factor but did pay attention to leader board.. well done
Have signed up and just wondered how much atention to the next days weather you factor in to selections
Hi Lothar. Not as much as in the summer, but it is worth noting. Wet weather has the opposite affect on the All-Weather as it speeds up rather than slowing down, but with less geographical diversity in the courses it’s also a lot easier to track.
First tips are now up in the members’ area!
Hi there where exactly are they in the members area please?? i can’t find them
Hi, try
http://www.bettingrant.co.uk/four-factor-racing-members-area-8628
then us the password emailed
Different Year, different name, but same great performance (so far:))
First two horses of the new service winners.
Welcome back Mousey!!
Hi Stuart. Yeah nice to start with a couple of wins and a bit of relief in there too, not that anything has changed. Hopefully a couple more over the weekend.
Confused, my first two lost, am I looking at the wrong bets? Today I had Wolves , Solar Deity and Dorback , both placed only? Not seen any other tips, can anyone help?
Hi BlueJohn,
Sounds like you missed the first two but no major damage as fairly low odds. Two for tomorrow are up and next ones will be tomorrow night for Sunday.
Well done on a decent start. Sorry if i am missing something but when you say “2 for tomorrow are up” do you mean there are 2 tips for Sat 5th somewhere, because i can’t see them?
SORRY! Ignore the last post, i am an idiot. Just found them in the Members Area. Thanks again.
No problem, Brian. Welcome aboard. Two are up for Sunday now and there may be more in the morning.
I meant chronologically, sorry. Yes, there were additional bets posted, as promised, around 9.30am today.
Wolves 2.30 Basle and 4.00 Drawnfromthepast both won
There were 2 others running just now in the 6.30, but neither won. So overall a small winning day. good steady start.
Cheers
Mate can’t tell you how good it is to have you back. Been waiting patiently for the service to resume and a good start. Here’s to a bumper 2013. Except for the bookies lol
Cheers Davy, yeah it’s good to be back too. We’re off the mark and yep should be a good year ahead!
Hello mousecliff,having followed the t factor im sure this will be a great and profitable service and really looking forward to following your tips.
I know you carnt price up all your selections the night before but was just wondering if you could put up the horses name if you think it will be a selection because i have no access to a computer on week days.
I would probably then back those horses on betfair the night before.
Best wishes for a great 2013!
Hi Welf.
Can you give me a couple of days to ponder on this one for the best solution and I’ll ask Matt for his thoughts too? I’d think we can do something otherwise you’d miss out on a fair chunk of the service.
If so, the problem would be that Betfair’s markets are frequently not fully formed the night before so you’d probably have to either take their starting price or leave an unmatched bet and either way may miss some of the value.
When I’ve listed horses before I’ve looked at expected prices but they’re not always that accurate. Will ponder and get back to you.
Thanks mousey,wish i didnt have such a crappy job then it wouldnt be a problem lol.
i can place bets sometimes by mobile but this is dependant on signal which is a problem some of the time.
i know the value aspect is the key but dont worry because ill still back the tips when i can.
Hi sorry it probably says somewhere but where can I see these tips?
Thanks
Hi bbowes,
It’s here for subscribers using password emailed:
http://www.bettingrant.co.uk/four-factor-racing-members-area-8628
Details on Matt’s BettingRant emails from over the festive time if not.
i have lost the password weepweep
In that case you’ll need to contact Agora customer services. It can’t be given out here for obvious reasons.
i understand thank you matt
Thank you mousecliff. I initially thought it was a free service.
After reading a recent email I now realise that’s not the case.
I am quite interested so I will be subscribing.
Look forward to receiving your tips.
Re. today’s AP the 8th of July is a Monday
I am very interested in this, as the past performance seems excellent. However, the promotions web page states FREE for 40 days, if paying by Direct Debit, but when I click to the order page, it says free for only 30 days. Which is it please?
Thanks.
It’s 30 days.
The reason it was 40 days is that the service took a break over Christmas so we wanted to make it fair for people who signed up over that period.
Thanks Matt
I just snapped! Snapped up one of the 250 limited places, that is
Are there really only 250 places? Considering the success of the T Factor, I thought they would all be taken by now…
How long should it take for me to receive the e-mail with the password to the VIP lounge?
Another question: is it safe to use “incremental” betting? Don’t know if that’s the right word, but what I mean is, starting with a bank of 1000pts to 10pts bets (1%), whenever the bank reaches a new high (for example 1100pts), then use 1% of 1100 (11pts) instead of 1000.
Hi johnye_pt,
We’re pretty much full actually – I imagine doors will be closing in the next few days hence the lack of promotions since Christmas.
The email update with members area details will go out tomorrow I think.
I’ll let Miles answer the last point!
Matt
bad day today. My 2nd day as a member. not so much the loosing BUT the way PUTIN & ISLAND LEGEND RAN. hope things can only improve.whatch this space??
Pleased to hear it johnye, welcome along. In response to the last question, ‘yes’. But, I’ll elaborate on this a bit for Monday’s email.
For info I was always advised to do the opposite to recoupe losses,,,, it has worked for me in the past so I am considering re-employing the technique here
just a thought
Compounding can be used as long as the advised bank remains. So, if a bank grows from 100 points to 120 points, how you choose to handle the extra 20 pts is up to the follower, whether to consider it a new total for the bank or to remove. bluejohn, please have another look at the introductory email. After this losing run of, um, 1 day, patience is advised but chasing losses is neither recommended, nor necessary.
Hi Mousecliff,
reprimand accepted, I’m still a tad uncomfortable after losing my bank following another competition member, head down neck wound in and in for the long haul.
Thanks bluejohn. Can appreciate that following a different service after losing money before would be more likely to cause a furrowed brow if it doesn’t get off to a flyer and I remember you posted that you didn’t spot the post with the first two winners on. Hopefully in the coming days we can start to build a platform, though.
Hi Dazzy,
Before you hit the panic button, of the six selections in the last two days, there was a winner (advised @ 8.5) and 3 second places (1 backed e/w). My thoughts on the other two are in tonight’s update. I’ll give you a more lengthy response over the weekend, but still working on tomorrow’s selections. Please feel free to read above where over 500 selections were more likely to finish 1st/2nd than outside of first three home.
Tuesday profitable, Wednesday a loser. As I say, I’ll respond over the weekend when I have more time.
I still haven’t received any e-mail or password. Will it come later tonight? I don’t want to miss all the action, as long as there is profit involved
Hi johnye. All of that sort of communication will come directly from Agora so would be in office hours, but I’ll see if I can get an update and let you know.
Hi Mousecliff,
These questions may already have been answered on here (apologies if they have) but what time do you generally post the tips and what time would you recommend that we place the bets? Are these communicated via email? I work during the day so am just trying to find out whether I’ll need to abuse the company internet! Or whether i can place them in the evenings.
Many thanks
Hi Wolves, 9pm and 9.30am on here via a different page. Ideally as soon as possible but most have held their prices pretty well. Only some races are priced up in evening so have to split them I’m afraid.
Hi all, is there a way of setting up a betting bank that has access to several betting sites. I’m a little confused on how I can use several sites to take advantage of best odds when my bank is sat in one site. Or do people just spread their bank over several sites
this in advance
You would need to spread your bank over several sites.
I find the best way is to use an ewallet like paypal or Neteller. You can deposit from there and have it back after a withdrawal from bookies in a few hours, rather than days, and move it elsewhere.
Hi I would like to ask if we should be helping each other out if we have multiple accounts with bookmakers.Most bookmakers have a referral scheme were you get paid to refer friends etc to open an account and I think it makes sense if we are considering opening another account then someone on the site should benefit as well as the new account holder who will get all the opening offers plus extra moneyby being referred and the person who refers them also benefits.I am a member of Bet365 andBetfair who have this scheme and Im sure there are many other members with differnt bookmakers.Any comments welcome?gerz1212
A neck away in the first today
A few of those so far! By the way, noticed you popped up in the Metro yesterday in a feature on former presenters of the Top 40 chart show thing. Apparently you have a tattoo of a pirate on your leg, for some reason.
It is all Anthea Turner’s fault!
Hi Mousecliff
Just started with you on 5th Jan. So far 19 bets with 3 wins and 1 EW. I am about 8.5 points down on investment of 19.5. Looks bad but is this a normal pattern that I have to accept? I know you cant give guarantees but, as a relative novice, it looks worrying at the moment.
Don’t worry. Fully proofed 93 points profit in 5 months speaks for itself . Two very flat months in amongst that so there will be ups and downs
Please see my post below. Also,the summaries posted above on the 16th December may be of use and give some sort of context to this week.
Hi MOUSECLIFF,
You were recommended by MATT. Has Matt ‘GOT IT RIGHT’?? As previous comment do we have to take this loosing run as the norm?
Or are we unlucky to join the service on a bad run??
As i previously stated ‘i’ll watch this space’. Please do not reply and relate to the previous 500 selections.
As the ‘man at the RBS said ‘past results are no guarentee of future performance’.
Please give some reply with a sence of a way forward to success.Are we just unlucky to join into your service when the ‘SADLES FELL OFF’
regards a ‘sceptical BUT serious punter’.looking for winners
dazzy106 that is a ridiculous post. This guy is a quality tipster. To quote Life of Brian “I should know, I’ve followed a few!”
You do not sound like a “serious punter” based on what you have written. Nobody forces you to bet. It is a personal choice.
Have to agree with sjrmacleod,mousecliff has proved himself and those sort of posts dont help anybody.
You have got to look at it more longer term,its not a get rich quick scheme,betting isnt like that.
Have patience and it will be rewarded.
Thanks for your input welf and sjr – but my post was a serious question to Mousecliff and your views while interesting are less than helpful.
I cant believe the above post from dazzy106, does he think tipsters have a crystal ball or something??? And yes mouscliffe can refer to his past selections as thats why he is where he is today – the winner after having made profits. The past is a guide to the future so quoting the RBS is just nonsense that statement is just written on their investment literature for legal reasons. When you look to follow a tipster you look for one that has a proven pedigree in the game as obviously their judgement is sound, then if they keep doing what they are doing a profit should follow over the long term & i stress long term. If you expect instant payouts then play the fruit machines.
Dazzy must be a complete betting novice or just a complete numbskull. A losing run of two days !! Mousecliffe produced 93 points profit in 5 months. Just stick with him and he will make you money. A neck away from a very profitable day. Next time it will go our way. It is actually embarrassing to read such twaddle
gfkw47, read the posts before you insult people. I was not even talking about your post. Nor was welf10.
Having said that, your post was not much better. How the hell do you expect Mousecliff to answer that? He makes his analysis and gives us the names of the horses he expects to win. His record over months shows he knows what he is doing. He will deliver over the long term.
Interesting stat for you all… Mousecliff’s first week of the T Factor competition ended with him bottom of the table on -8 points.
Chill.
Great comeback. 16.52% ROI. What other establishment pays that in 6 months?
Evening All,
Early days into the service, but having had a recap tonight, so far 4 of the 5 winners have won fairly comfortably however the close calls have largely gone against us. We’ve had 6 finishing in 2nd and 6 in third with 8 of these being matched in-running at evens or below. We’ve had over 22 points that could have potentially been returned from selections matched at 1.05, 1.14, 1.21, 1.25 and 1.42. Had a couple of these prevailed then we’d now be sitting on a profit.
If we keep getting this close then the returns will follow. We shouldn’t get too excited after a good couple of days nor overreact after a couple of losing days. It’s why we use a bank and it should be of a suitable size so you don’t panic after a disappointing day or two.
I’ve made it very clear that this is a long-term strategy and patience and a bank of points is needed. However, if you have specific questions about the service then please feel free to ask and I will do my best to help.
Have a pleasant Saturday and the next tips will be posted at 9pm.
Hi Mousecliff. Thanks for a very informative and reassuring response. I am a novice at this – and you have to start somewhere. Thanks again.
HI ALL.
Numbskull,betting novice i can assure that your comments are well away from the truth.
This is a open forum were people exchange thier view points.It is not a place to get personel.
Thanks Matt for your input as i and more were NOT part of the service then, this puts a better light on the position for those who have only joined after your recommendation.
It would seem some on this forum take the roll of ‘judge & jury’ and that us NUMBSKULLS,NOVICE punters must hide away.
Remember BRUNO ‘he who thinks he is standing beware’.?
If you dont understand, you’ll find it in the bible.
Regards Dazzy
Hi Dazzy. I didn’t mean to sound personal and they are hardly scathing words. BUT surely a couple of losing days does not constitute a losing run? If you are a serious punter, surely you know this! Anyway, lets hope for some winners next week.
Hi Mousecliff, very new to all this betting mularcky and trying to find
my way about. Are there tips for Saturday? I’m in the members area and can’t find anything except for Friday’s tips.
Hi Dermot. Next ones up at 9pm later today. Worth keeping an eye on the very top of the thread as the top will keep info on next bets and warn of any days without bets.
Hi and happy new year.
If its any consolation to those who didn`t follow the T factor from the start, my betting bank just about broke even in the previous twelve months prior to following Mouse and Co. I for one am very happy with the progress so far and so is my bank manager. Not that I trust his “gambling rather than investment” activities with my money. I might suggest to him that he subscribes to this service actually, in fact the whole of RBS to be honest.
As the old saying goes ” It`s not a sprint it`s a marathon”.
Keep it up Mouse your doing ok matey.
Looking forward to some great payouts If I combine your selections when the barometer is right.
Kind regards, Steve.
Your bank manager gambles with your money? Now there’s a scary thought…
I agree that a record sometimes is proof that a system works, yet sometimes it doesn’t prove anything. I’m not comparing systems, but if you look at BFP’s system, it started failing around November. Maybe he changed his system, maybe it was the weather, whatever it was, it (kind of) stopped working, yet it seems he has been using it for some years now. But as you can see he had a great record up to November (almost tripled the starting bank). Mousecliff’s system proved to be more stable in the long run and that’s what we really want, but that doesn’t mean it will/won’t continue to be in the future, since nothing is guaranteed when betting. We can only hope for the best
Well if the R.O.I. is anything to go by then I`d say “yes” they (RBS) gamble. I don`t think BFP would change anything drastically with his selection process (if it aint broke don`t fix it)so to speak. The changeover from flat to jumps started a tough time for all and you are probably correct with the awful weather conditions as we have not experienced anything like this for as long as I can remember. I don`t think I`d fancy even running to the shops let alone 1m4f in the mud? sod that!!!
I`d love yours and anyone else`s views on so called “AW” running as I`m basically a “turf” punter and have limited knowledge on these types of track.
It seems that even these course are throwing up some real weird statistics lately. What are your views?
It`s often been quoted that we should draw our information from a portfolio of various system methods.
There is no such thing as one perfect system that works all year round after all and what goes on turf doesn`t correlate with AW necessarily.
Thanks for your input johnye_pt.
Kind regards and good luck, Steve.
Happy New Year to you too Steve. Only 3 tracks running at the mo, with Southwell still out of action. Mainly Wolves and a bit of Lingfield this week and more Kempton next week. Have a look- you’ll soon get used to which is which.
Hi Mousecliff, joined last week and got the first email yesterday Friday, but cannot access Saturdays information. Have signed up to the Betting Rant. Whats the procedure? Otherwise this is going to be a non starter as I cannot abide bad customer service!!
Deejay.
Hi Deejay
I am a newcomer to Mousecliff. So far he has been great at communicating. Agora I find a bit more difficult although they used to be much better. I find it easiest to telephone them.
Hi Deejay,
The protected area is here:
http://www.bettingrant.co.uk/four-factor-racing-members-area-8628
Next tips 9pm tonight.
Hi Mousecliff,thanks for the prompt response. My mistake as I misread the time 9PM tonight for Sundays selections as 9am. No selections today therefore.
Regards
Deejay
Hi Mousecliff,
Another novice here. When you put up a selection to win I am assuming that it is only to win and not to put money on it to place as well? If so why would we not back the selection to place also if you think it is going to win?
Thanks
Hi bbbowes. Yes to the first question. A bit of a grey area, but to illustrate by way of an example-
To use a selection priced @ 4 with 1/5 of the price for a place, so odds of 4 for the win part and 1.6 for the place part. (To calculate place, take 1 away, divide by 5, add the 1 again. (4-1=3, 3/5=0.6, 0.6+1=1.6)
Backing 1pt win. 1 pt staked to return 4 pts if wins.
Backing 0.5 e/w. 1 pt staked to return 2.8 pts if wins.
Backing 1 pt e/w. 2 pts staked to return 5.6 pts if wins.
So you have the option of same stake for lower returns or doubling stake. Looking at the place part separately, 1.6 would be returned for 1 pt staked. That part of the bet needs it to place 62.5% of the time to break even or 75% of the time for a 20% profit.
Whilst it’ll be used selectively, in short, doing this across the board would have to either reduce the returns or increase the stake.
sorry one more question. I
was looking at the selection at 2.30 tomorrow and their seems to be a concern about his draw. I was just wondering what your take on it was? I am a novice and know nothing but just wanted your opinion.
Thanks again.
I’d expect him to be ridden proactively and can keep out of trouble from here. Under different hands it might be different, but the threats are drawn low and together and this tactical jockey should be able to adapt.
The selection it may have been a concern with is a non-runner, but that was probably factored into the price. Whilst various stats point towards certain biases, there’s also the school of thought that these are now over bet and that there is value in backing those with a perceived bad draw. Also, these have not always been constants on the AW and with recent remedial work on the track at Wolves it remains to be seen if that has an influence as it has in the past.
Hi Mousecliffe,,
sorry if this is a dull question, can you explain today’s bet of .75pt e/w (.75 win .75 e/w) I understand e/w but is this two bets of .75 win then a bet of .75 e/w making 1.5 pt total
thks
ah, typo, sorry. yes meant 0.75 win, 0.75 place. Total of 1.5 staked overall on that selection.
Thank you Mousecliff. That was very helpful.
Terrible run from Blazeofenchantment there. Really fancied as backed into 5/4.
Certainly was. Very frustrating especially when backed into that price.
Great ride by Jimmy Quinn on Kames Park. Timed to perfection
I joined this service a few days ago, few points down but certainly not worried at all,it is plain to see from the daily analysis that is someone who knows what he is talking about. I note that Kames Park had a run a couple of days ago quoted at 25/1 and got placed, today the horse delivered the goods again in quite a large field so half a point up on the day ! You can be the best tipster in the world but you still rely on the animal to perform and for the jockey to ride the ‘correct’ race on the horse.the best horses don’t always win because of so many different factors…this means that it is always going to be a long term project…regards to all, Dom
Hi Dom. Thanks for that. Yep, fully agree about the variables- if anything was certain you wouldn’t be able to find odds on it- and this being a long term project.
Hi Mousecliff,
I joined the service yesterday and was just wondering what the rule of thumb is for odds coming in? i.e. if by the time I’ve come to place the bets they’ve come in, how much should I allow before I decide not to place the bet? Or is there another option that you recommend?
Thanks again
Hi Wolves, Having a bit of time away today and keeping brain switched off, so will give you a decent answer Tues night.
Hi Wolves,
Good question. First thing I’d try to do is establish the drop. If one bookie is 5.5 and others 5 when advised, often that one will drop to 5 too, so I’d be starting off considering the drop from there.
I always go to oddschecker first which has the bonus of showing if any non-runners and their price when pulled out. The lower the odds the bigger the reduction.
http://www.bettingmad.com/rule4s.asp
(you need to scroll down and from that you can get an idea of the deduction)
Monday was a good example when prices became lower than advised when those things kicked in and recorded prices were 5.82 from the 2 winners after being advised at a total of 8.
If none of that applies…it’s another grey area…I’m trying to think through a few values and what I’d do…
conclusion- I’d probably follow the price down a quarter, but no more than a third. So 8 I might take at 6 but not 5, 4 at 3.25, but not 2.5.
(The big thing not to do is not to increase stakes to get the same return as if bet at the higher odds. If you do then you’re betting more at lesser value which is not a good thing.)
You’ll win some and lose some, odds wise. One drops, another drifts. But, you’re absolutely right that you shouldn’t just continue to back if the price has been severely chopped.
Hi Mousecliff,
Thanks for your reply, that seems to be a good rule of thumb.
Cheers
That the two singles both won today was the good news, but the bad news was that there were hefty price reductions to both. Details and figures in Tues night’s post.
Damn price reductions, damn them I say. Still nice return to form mate. For all the newbies expect more of this from Mousey he will deliver the goods. 90 pts don’t lie.
Wow – gone into profit for first time since 1st bets placed on 5th Jan. So bet 35.25 points and 0.85 points up. Lets hope it continues in same direction!
That’s pretty good really, bit of a hit today tho; following another system last year I was 60% down after 4 weeks and 100% down after 7 weeks, I think winter is always tough in the betting world. I am looking forward to the middle part of the year, I’m sure this thing will fly on past performance. Is the trial period up on the 5 Feb?
Rgds
Murcar another pipped on the line. I bet that was ridiculously short in running. Been very unlucky lately
1.04, Bussa 1.1. grrr- last 5 have been a winner and 4 in second.
unbelievable bad luck today,thought bussa was sure to win,and murcar should have won, the jockey went too early on him.
And another close one on Bussa. Had a cheeky treble today. V close to a bumper payout . About 70/1.bugger!
A lot of very close calls lately Mousecliff, sure to win a few by a nose soon.
A tactic I sometimes use to soften the blow on these very close calls is to place an unmatched lay bet (keep at in-running) at odds of 1.1 to cover my stake. For example for a £20 stake you only risk £2 of your potential win to cover your stake if it comes that close that people are matching at 1.1 in running. It worked today for both Murcar and Bussa and I got my stakes back. Looks like it would have worked a few times lately.
In the long run it will probably even itself out as you will lose a few quid here and there on the winners but it does soften the blow when you have some very unlucky losers and it feels better to lose a couple of pound on a win and get a ‘win’ of the stake back from a close-call.
Keep them coming and a few will go our way soon!
Yeah, as a leveller can see that that has its merits. There’ve been 4 this year that I can think of when it would’ve worked, and a couple not quite down that low , so you’d be up a bit this year. As you say, you only need it to work once for every 10 winners to break even, so not going to make or lose a huge amount and, yep, not a bad plan at all.
Hi,I just joined the service today and it seems now when I enter the password I cannot get logged in,it worked fine this morning any ideas?
Hi Liam, the password was updated today so that might be the problem. If it hasn’t been emailed, then give customer services a call on 0207 633 3630, but you might have to be quick as think they close at half five.
cheers,got the password now,hadnt received the email
Forum is quiet, need some rousing comments to end January!
I ‘m back needing an honest answer to an honest question or two and as there are 250 of us I’ m sure I’ll get one. Just rec’d interesting email from the Betting Rant, sure it’s not written by Matt but it starts with quote
After an up and down start (much like he experienced in the T Factor competition) Miles’ Four Factor Racing system is starting to shift into top gear and subscribers have made a tidy profit over the last few days.
Hmmmm? I must be doing something wrong or following another system. It goes on to say that we have not alerted the bookies yet so we can now take on another 100 members!!!!!! Now come on, please, we are all intelligent people, all 250 of us. though only about 6 or 7 post. Am I to believe that actually the truth is we are well short of members. It’s odd that the trial period is not over yet and we are already, apparently able to expand membership? If we are not on the Bookies radar we soon will be.
So. is the truth really that lots of people have left or not even joined, if I’m wrong I will accept a dressing down from all.
This has a taint of Agora meddling to me?
Rgds all
I have got the same e mail bluejohn, and must admit i was wondering the same.
I guess this could be down to agora but i tend not to take much notice of them.
Yep interesting, I have never liked that organisation, lack integrity!
Anyone know when the nezt update is due?
Thought it might have been yesterday?
I deleted the last one by accident and had a very quiet weekend just as things seemed to be coming together!
The update has just gone out. It should have been yesterday and will be going out on a Monday in the future.
Agree with you guys . I have had 3 different mails offering me one of the new 100 places. The invites also talk about the top gear results which is a complete lie. I am happy with the service but it is in danger of destroying its own credibility…..be careful Mousecliff.. If we turn the corner, 350 members may well attract the bookies eye !
I too have wondered why the marketing push which has appeared in my inbox from different but all Agora connected sources. My position at close of play yesterday was -7.46 points since the start on Jan 4th That would be less if I could get the prices. While a lot of the prices on Betfair are very close and being + & – in a small way, if all won would probably even out. Sadly the winners we had earlier in the month go against that trend by dropping a point on average Worst was Kames Park 5.5/3.14 Had these been at service prices a rough estimate would have me having around 2.5 points in profit. Given some poor weather conditions and abandons (upsets the horses routines, think on it you get all spruced up to go out and party. If it doesn’t happen you’d feel disappointed and deflated) = less quality opportunities so I am not going to throw my toys out of the pram yet, perhaps ought to be bath chair
. 250 bets going down over even a short period is unlikely to affect prices since we don’t all use the same platform, although I suspect Betfair is a popular choice. Odds Checker shows the movement of prices and one bookie taking a lot on a horse will bring that price down and the others notice, do their own number crunching and decide to follow suit or not. Mainly its accumulative and automated. If horse x takes £y and that is against the trend of that race price drops by z. It takes a huge single bet or several unusually large and unexpected bets to make dramatic price movements. Let’s face it, to be noticed as a group we need a better hit rate. Until that happens, and from following the T factor I’m sure Miles will get back in the groove again, no one can do a reasonable analysis and predict if extra numbers will have an effect. Agora can be over zealous and even disengenuous in their marketing, in politics it is called being economic with the truth, recent emails for Matt’s Golden Goals being a case in point.
Well, economy of truth is one thing, damn right lying another. My experience with Agora is very much the latter as they seek to extort as much cash from people as possible. My only reservation of entering into this service was the unfortunate use of this flawed organisation.
Not sure what you’re getting at with regards Goal-den Formula emails…
Just want to clear a couple of points up…
The email that’s being referred to was written last Thursday after a couple of good days. I’ve been away visiting friends since then and left instructions to change the opening of the email if results didn’t continue in that vein. For whatever reason that wasn’t done and so I can only apologise – at the time of writing, the statement was accurate.
As for the 100 places, I don’t agree with the points being made here. Both myself and Miles have been keeping a close eye on prices and the vast majority have remained available for a large period of time (there is usually no change untill the next morning, if at all). Indeed the majority of reduced prices have been down to non-runners which obviously has nothing to do with the number of members.
While the occasional price has been shortened, that’s just the nature of racing and there have also been a few prices that have drifted a fair bit.
As far as I can see, there has been no negative effect on the odds at present and so opening up a final 100 places shouldn’t pose any issues.
Again though, I apologise for the opening to the email – I was annoyed myself when I saw it.
That agora for you. So now there are another 100 places can I leave and rejoin and get another trial period, or would it not be an honourable gesture on Agora’s part to extend the trial period till March? No harm in asking.
On what basis?
Not really sure what the issue is here…
Astral42 & bluejohn, the service is only around 8 points down for heavens sake!!! If you have a 100 point bank then whats the problem? How can you expect to win all the time, services like that just DONT EXIST – FULL STOP! I have followed a service for 5 years and 2 of them years have been slight losing years, but the other 3 three have put in great profit overall and given me a nice pension pot that will never be in danger as i have taken out 8 times my starting stake. Luckily i started on a winning year thats why i carried on, but to slate a service after one month is not grasping the reality of horse racing and investment in general. Ok so you will say you are slating Agora and not mousecliffe but i feel its both because you have lost so far, typical knee jerk reaction of the instant rich brigade. Agora have pushed this because evidently it made of 90 points on T-Factor so why shouldnt they as the proof is there so i dont think they are been disengenuous as they just want to promote a service they feel ‘has’ and will deliver, whats the problem with that???
Jayjay re-read my post no critisism of Mousecliffe that I can see there , I have no problem with my signing up or service received so far, I registered and then confirmed at the earliest possible dates after the competition finished. I thought my simplified comments on price movement would calm any worry new comers to betting might have, my only reference to the extra places was you’ll note a comment on the difficulty of coming to a decision regarding numbers on too little data .
The Email I referred to and was using as example of over enthusiastic copywriting is for golden goals and includes customer comments, unfortunately they do not refer to the current football season nor for that matter to the part of last season I followed. The copywriting for for this service referring to the T factor is correct and is legitimate usable copy in context.
PS I disagree with the negative comments regarding Agora as a business. I think it’s been about 4 year,s maybe more, since they came into my view and although customer service has occasionally been a bit patchy, using email, I have been impressed by their telephone service, helpful and efficient. Email to the individual service operators has, when needed, also been no problem.
Not slating the service at all, read the original post on this issue, not and have not complained about loss / bank etc etc, take a chill pill
My first time joining in here,i did not follow the t-factor during it’s trial but got the e-mail from Matt with the results&you would have to say,i think this guy proved himself which is why i joined up.thought to myself that for the initial price it cannot be any worse than a lot of the crap out there and believe me i have bought enough of them.I have been backing horses for a fair number of years so i can confess to knowing a bit about them.I have also purchased and joined many a tipping service so have loads of experience here.I would have to totally agree with jayjay comments above.I would have to add in though i was a bit worried when i got the e-mail saying another 100 places were being made available,always hate that one,it says to me you have had a lot of cancellations and you probably have because this month as i write this the trial period shows a loss and unfortunately the amateur punter out there will be short minded and be unable to wait so they will cancel.You cannot make a profit every month,i always give my tipster at least 3 months and then go from there.I believe at the outset t-factor was promoted as a long term investment,low starting subscription then double the price in year 2 once proven you should be able to pay this through the profit.If it does not prove to be profitable then you can cancel.The thing i like about t-factor is you get an explanation of the selection and transparent results with the odds which i have found no problem obtaining,in fact on some where mousecliff has corrected the results at lower odds as he considered them not obtainable i have managed to get the higher odds.where do you get that from any other tipster.I will be staying for the duration even though we are slightly negative on the profit because i am sure this will turn around and besides it’s long term your supposed to have a betting bank to allow for those losers,give it a chance.Will the extra 100 places have an effect?have to fill them first if they exist,
but i doubt it will have any effect,we all use different bookmakers and at the moment we are not exactly robbing them blind,steady streams of winners and losers will not have any effect.
Thats right sparky dave, although i have given many tipping services longer than 3 months trial and glad i did with some of them. It all depends on how you feel about the service and has it delivered in the past which mousecliff has. Despite what people say the past is a guide to the future or why else study form?? And its the past that got the 93 points over the trial. You just have to believe in what you are doing and repeat the process and results should pick up.
I cannot believe we have been done at the post again. I know it happens a lot , but none have gone our way. The second part of a double for me too. Onwards and upwards
Yeah, I thought we’d got that one and did think ‘at last we’ve won a close one’ and then the odds started shifting as the photo was going on… Aaarghh!!!
bluejohn you are 100% correct in regards to Agora. Due to unexpected financial issues, I was forced to ask for a refund for this service within the one month refund period. After six unanswered emails,
other that one that said they had received my request and would look into it, no communication or refund was forthcoming. The strange thing was, Agora continued to bombard me with further “amazing offers” but would not return my emails. What do you do? In desperation I asked Matt Haughton to assist but he informed me that this was Agora’s issue, not his. While I understand this would be the case, I would have thought that someone who went to so much time and effort to promote this competition etc, after hearing that this, what can only be called at best “disreptuable” company he has alligned his name with, may have done the right thing and looked into why they failed to honour their guarantee and not even return emails. So now I am stuck with a system I cannot afford to bet on (which as it stands may be a good thing). And for all those who won’t hear a bad word about this tipster, consider this. Everyone agrees systems have bad months. So everyone jumps up and down if somebody has the ordacity to question the first month they join as a losing one. If that is the case, is not the one month gurantee a worthless one? Agora may be bordering on criminal, certainly in my case fraudulent (and I have all the emails to prove it) but their not stupid. They know 3 months would be about the average for someone to give a system a chance yet only offer a one month guarantee. Hmm.
Hi Scaldedcat. Have you tried customer services on 0207 633 3630. I won’t be around until later today, but please update how you get on.
Thanks.
1) When you contacted me you didn’t tell me that you had already contacted customer services (and I have the email to prove it) hence why I directed you towards customer services.
2) Having heard that you had already contacted them I then spoke to them myself. That is the last I heard from you so I assumed that it had been resolved – if you still haven’t received a response then you need to make me aware of this. I am aware that customer services have had a few issues of late and if you are still waiting on a reply then I aplogise as that obviously isn’t good enough but – as I have told you before – I’m not a mind reader.
3) You will receive your refund.
4) The competition ran and provided free selections for five months therefore you have had, in essence, a six month guarantee period. You may say that you didn’t follow the competition. Well, that’s irrelevant because the selections and results are up on this site (time and date stamped) for all to see.
Sad to hear, I think the services provided by Matt and others are too good to be marred by Agora. I joined Mousecliffe’s service on the merits of last year, I did hesitate when I saw it would be promoted through Agora, I’m sure many will disagree and I respect that, however, I think we would be better served without Agora
I recently joined the service to see how exactly it works but have decided it”s not for me as I”m not interested in backing multiple horses daily and am more into the jumps,I contacted Agora this morning and told them I will not be going ahead with my membership,they have told me my refund will be back in my account in 3-5 working days,will post when I receive my refund.
Matt
1) You have the email to prove it? I’m not trying to hide anything. I just wanted to get my refund and as you were the organiser of this whole thing I thought you may be able to help.
2) My fault that the organisation refused to even return my emails yet still was able to bombard me with more and more pathetic offers. I don’t believe I said you were a mind reader, though neither am I. “You spoke to them” and? Maybe an email to let me know that and what if anything had been sorted.
3) I would be eternally greatful (and that is not being sarcastic)
4) Matt, you don’t seem like a bad bloke, but please, “you’ve already had a six month guarantee period”. Because you run a competition, with God knows how many entrants, that means that we all have guarantees from these completely unknown tipsters, including this one, and you believe that is a guarantee period? I think if you read that back you might be a bit embarrassed. I thought the whole object was to find out at the END of the competition who you decided was the winner and best tipster, and then decide if you wished to buy in and try his tips out. Seems I was wrong about that too.
And MouseCliff I appreciate you replying to me, and I in no way blame you for all this, as I said, I unfortunately was not able to give your system the time it deserved. But I congratulate you on winning the competition, and hope that the system turns out to be a successful one for you and your members.
Once again I apologise if Agora have been slow to respond to you but as for all of your other complaints I don’t feel you have any justification for any of them.
You don’t seem to have quite grasped what I said but I’ll not bother repeating myself apart from this…
You emailed me to ask for a refund. This was all you said.
I referred you to customer services as refunds have zero to do with me and I am not able to process them.
You then responded and said that you had already emailed them.
I apologised, spoke to customer services and told you that I had spoken to customer services and that you should hear from them shortly (it seems you have no recollection of that email, so perhaps customer services have emailed you and that has also gone astray…)
I haven’t heard from you since so could only assume that the issue had been resolved.
If you’d like to point out exactly what I’ve done wrong here it’d be much appreciated because frankly, I’m stumped.
Right, I’ve spoken to them again and they assure me that your subscription has been cancelled, you will get a full refund to your card and you will be notified of this shortly.
I have absolutely no issue with your complaint towards customer services – all I’m saying is that if you don’t inform me of your situation (as far as I knew, it was resolved) there is nothing whatsoever I can do about it.
I also disagree completely about your opinion of the guarantee period but let’s not get into that.
Who would work in admin!!!!!!!!!!!
This service while down currently has full explanations and reasoning behind bets, a lot more than others offer.
Ship jumpers at this point dont understand the game I think
Matt
Obviously it has been poor communication on my part that has led to most of this, as you, as opposed to agora, were willing to set things right which after dealing with them, I wrongly imagined those who were associated with them would act as they do. As you said, you have spoken to them and they have finally replied to me and say they will refund the money. When it hits my account I will know for sure. I know sounds petty, but I do have reservations about what they say.
We will continue to disagree about the guarantee period, but as you say, not worth going into, and ultimately a small price to pay.
At this point I would like to unreseredly apologise to you Matt, I took my frustrations with agora out on you when you were obviously the only one trying to help. I had given the money up as dead, so to have you personally arrange for the refund, which was the only way it was going to happen, I do thank you.
No worries. At least its sorted now.
Well done mouse, great start to the month 3 winners and even won one in a photo finish, we deserved a change of luck!
Hi Mousecliff
Could you please clarify what you mean when you give an each way tip?
e.g. on Monday 4/Feb
Wolverhampton. 0.5 points each-way
Do you mean a total bet of 1 point (.5 win & .5 place) or
a total bet of 0.5 points (.25 win & .25 place) ??
Sorry but I’m totally new to this horse betting lark and want to follow your instructions exactly…. Thanks.
No problem xyz, it’s the first one- total bet of 1 point (.5 win & .5 place)
Well now over a month in and beyond the refund stage, alas I wonder if we will be inundated with more e mails hailing this service. Not one to complain at this early stage however down about 20 points which is not the best of starts. I will stick with the selections until the 3 month mark and thereafter make a decision on its merit. Can someone clarify the date for cut off for refund as I presume it was yesterday? Many thanks
As I read it, the refund period is the original 40, or 30 day period, during which you don’t pay anyway, if by Direct Debit. You should have had a letter from Agora stating on which date your Direct Debit for £97 would be activated. If you paid by card straight up, I presume you would have had 40 or 30 days from the date of the transaction. (I believe it was 40 days before the Xmas/New Year break and 30 days afterwards)
I asked that question a while back on this forum, didn’t get an answer however, was told by Agora 5 Feb. Can’t imagine anymore promotions unless Agora get greedy. Would be nice to know how many members we have but it’s a touchy subject so not going there. I’ve also given myself a more realistic trial period as the system deserves it, I’m keen to see what changes as the seasons change. Not an easy game but interesting to follow, I’ll stick with it till profit arrives or the bank has gone after all it’s only gambling.
Good luck!
orzabal, Jim, bluejohn,
I’m afraid I can’t help regarding the cut-off times. I think Jim is right, but would suggest calling customer services on 0207 633 3630 and they should be able to help.
I have to confess to being somewhat disappointed with the performance to date. In just under 4 weeks, my investment has shown a ROI of -20%, which is way bigger than any of the single phase losses in the trial period, as shown above. The strike rate is only 22% over the last 59 selections.
I appreciate that things can turn around rapidly with a few good wins, but we are getting an awful lot of 2nd places (2 more today), where the winner seems to be a long odds rank outsider. If we could bet on 2nd place only, (instead of winner or each way) I’m sure we would be in profit!
My payment is due early next week. I’m sorry to be negative, but unless things begin to look up in the next few days, I may seriously consider cancelling.
I can understand the concern with the performance so far,lets face it no one likes losing but i honestly feel that things will turn round over a longer period.
I think this winter period has been very difficult time to find a consistant reading of the form hence some strange results.
Having said that mousecliff has had more than his share of bad luck with his selections.
Hi Jim,
I very much understand any negativity- it’s made a loss so far and that’s a fact.
As discussed in this week’s email, the strike-rate needed to be higher, given the average odds being less then normal in Jan. The only point I’d debate is that ‘we are getting an awful lot of 2nd places’ as if that’s another negative. If a bet’s losing, isn’t it more reassuring that so many have gone close than not be in contention?
(I did half-smile when I read you line about ‘if we could bet on 2nd place…’ Yep have thought that too today!)
There were 4 or 5 dips of 10+ points through the trial last year (I remember one weekend when 8/10 finished 2nd or 3rd with none winning and felt like I do today) but if you keep getting in the frame it should all come good.
Agreed. In fact the initial sample/trial that Mousecliff won was relatively small. With the strike rate achieved we can expect losing sequences in the 20′s hence the need for a bank. Remember as well that you could have consecutive losing sequences to add to the pain. It’s a tough business but as long as the odds are high enough then a return can be achieved. Unfortunately the hype was all rather unnecessary.
Hi Robert,
Agree with needing a bank. However wouldn’t enitely agree with it being a small sample. There were over 500 selections in the sample/trial period which is more than many services provide in a couple of years and all were 1 point bets and a period without any hugely priced winners distorting the results.
If that’s too small a sample, then the 80ish so far this year is even smaller and given that a fair proportion have gone very close indeed it all needs to be seen in context.
Regarding previous comment, please be assured that this service is one of integrity. As has been commented, recorded prices are those after any quick changes, which will happen from time to time, include any deductions and is as honest as any service can be. Evening bets are only advised when numerous bookies’ prices are available and when one isn’t priced hugely above others. The tips are posted reliably at a specific time rather than a scattergun approach so that it’s easy to follow. This is with the aim to provide a service that makes a return for its current subscribers rather than provide great figures for future publicity. If I didn’t follow these principles then the 2012 results would’ve been very significantly higher.
Now all that’s needed is to pick winners rather than runners-up!
Not knocking it at all. Being a maths freak it is just a fact that the greater the sample the more accurate the longest losing sequence prediction will be. People have to be aware of the chances of a painful losing run. If your probability of a winner is greater than the bookies prediction we will win. Simple really, good luck and I will happily follow.
Wow, will the bank survive the second month, but fear not the marketing strategy continues which makes me all warm inside.
Yep, marketing strongly. I had 2 mails this morning telling me to be quick and secure my place. Come on guys, the service is struggling at the moment and we followers are nursing significant losses to our banks. Surely it’s only moral to wait until the service starts to live up to its billing ?
No blame on you Mousecliff, I guess you are as disappointed as the rest of us, in fact probably more so !
Well if nothing else at least we are consistent!!!
I’m going to continue betting till March then if no change in fortunes I ‘ll hold off bets till the summer and put this questionable run it down to the system not being tested in the harsher winter months. I’ m concerned that we will just spend the second half of the year trying to balance the books. No offence to Mousecliffe, it is just gambling at the end of the day.
Another losing day, now over 22 points down since recording. Highlights the need for a betting bank.
ATB
Rob
it is disappointing but i really think it will turn round. had some losing months before, although not this bad. from memory i think he did well on A/W before christmas?
Sorry, enough is enough. A loss of another 19.25 points over the last 26 bets, only 1 outright winner, in 6 betting days. I kept thinking that perhaps the next day would show a profit, but sadly not. Last profitable day was 23rd January. I am cancelling before payment is due this week. Another system confined to room 101? Thank heavens for Bonus Bagging!
I am afraid I have to agree, I keep waiting for the turn around but it is not happening. My first foray into horse race betting and I have been badly burnt.
Again, it shows the need for a bank and a portfolio. I admit that I have the weighting for this wrong in my portfolio and 22 points down for this and an equally poor run from the anything but ‘golf betting expert’ has certainly dented the bank. Fortunately my other streams are showing a profit and balance the several thousands lost to these. The competition showed a genuine return and I do not believe it was down to luck but it was a different time of year. Still early days but it will take quite a recovery to live up to the marketing. The one thing I don’t want to see is Mousecliff panicking, if his selection process is sound then the winners will return.
I guess jimladdo’s comments mean another email from marketing with an unexpected place now available!
I know Matt will disagree with me but the best thing Agora can do if they want to retain members is extend the money back guarantee period to end of March and give Mousecliffe a respectable fighting chance to recover. The sharks at Agora probably won’t buy it so standby for many more cancellations and promotional blah. Would be interested to know how many people are still onboard, my guess considerably less than 200. Roll on summer, I think this system will come good.
@jimladdo,
Cant understand your reasoning here, if you have a 100 point bank then whats the problem? Unless of course you havent really got a betting bank and just paying lip service to it. I am around 22 points down but a couple of decent priced winners and were back on track, how can anyone expect services just to keep on winning. What a world we live in hey, Di matteo getting sacked at Chelsea for dareing to lose and draw a few games, this shortermism mentality will only lead to the poorhouse as no one will stick with anything!
Guess what another 2 points into the abyss, I am sorry but enough is enough time to prepare the exit strategy!!!
Im about 32 points down since the start but im in for the long haul.
Mousecliff, i was wondering if you think the winter conditions was hampering your selection process, southwell was a right old slog today.
welf10, 32 points is a lot to make up and I doubt you ever will, but it is your money.
@jayjay,
Following on from your Di Matteo comment, if Mousecliff was a football manager he could praise his players to the hilt for their effort, and how unlucky they’ve been by hitting the bar so many times but with 1 win out of 26 he would have been sacked long ago! Yes, there have been a few near misses but there have also been some god-awful runs as well. To me it’s not so much the 20 odd points down, it’s the comment “I simply cannot be too hard on myself when so many are going close and their runs are largely justifying their selection.” It doesn’t matter if they get beat by a nose or 20 lengths, a loser is still a LOSER!
Dennyman & orzabel, i really dont think you have grasped how pro gambling works, if you lose you lose your unit stake, when you win you win many times your stake so 32 points is nothing to make up, a good run at average odds of around 6/1 and we are back in business. Ok so 32 points down, take that away from 93 he made in trial leaves us with a 61 point profit, now name me a bank that would give you that return – bet you cant! The di matteo comment is silly, why would you sack someone that has delivered 61 points or £610 to £10 stakes even if they are down 32 points in the short term?
Just looking at the task, with a market leading 20% ROI It will be 160 bets before the 32 points is recovered plus fees. Quite an uphill battle but it puts it in perspective.
robertpb, he hasnt got an uphill task as he is still 60 points up since starting? Also, a good run will make up 32 points no problems as remember when we win we win many time our stake, those that pose these questions are not really cut out for gambling and should go for the safe havens such as banks etc.
Charlie, I have been trading for 12 years and know the risks. I don’t like pushy marketing and I don’t like people entering this game if they don’t know the facts. I know the risks and a 20% ROI is an impressive return that most services would be proud of. It demonstrates the bank concept and the weighted portfolio, those that think it will all recover tomorrow are not suited to the game, it has to be seen long term. I am not criticising mouse, he is having a tough time and I am sure he will recover but be prepared that statistically it is likely to be weeks rather than days. I would love to be proved wrong. If we all took the appropriate long term view we wouldn’t be having these comments.
Charlie, are you for real, since the service went live ie paying customers it is quite a bit down hence your whining about it still being 60 points up is quite irrelevant.
Well none of this bodes well! I have just joined the whole Four Factor thing and don’t know I great deal about any sort of betting be it horses or Tesco burgers (same difference)just looking to make a few extra quid with not too much outlay to help with everyday life! Am I in the right place or should I get out now while I still can? Any advise would be greatly appreciated! Also may not be suitable question for here but I really want to get into Forex and am inundated with all these brilliant systems from the dear Agora and just wondered if anyone had any real experience on here or could point me in the right direction of something genuine without the Agora hype? Thanks guys!
Can I point you to cdsystems daily bargain /. Pro bets and the www. Bettingexpert.com daily naps. They are both good value or free and have a great record but please follow the good advice here and ensure you have a bank of points to commit. Don’t overthink, get over confident or emotional. Place the bet using odds checker or similar for best odds and walk away. If you are afraid to lose the money you commit then best avoid and keep it safe. The FOREX is a minefield that requires careful and timely monitoring, I have looked at it but cannot commit to the time requirements. Others may well help ?
You can make money but I suggest you run a portfolio of tipsters as it evens out the volatility if one goes through a rough patch as you are witnessing here.
Thank you very much Robertpb sounds like valuable advice which I will heed very much appreciated.
Charlie, I’ve reread the e-mails promoting this Service, and nowhere can I see where it says “only pro gamblers need apply”, so being a “pro gambler” has no bearing on the debate. Ask Mousecliff to conduct a poll of his Members to find out how many consider themselves “pro gamblers”.I certainly don’t, but of course I understand how it works. Yes, we could have 5 or 6 winners on the trot and at least be back in the black, but it is equally likely we could end up with another 25 losers out of the next 26! Whatever profits that have been made in the past are immaterial to anyone who signed up and started following from January.
I think what charlie means dennyman is to have a pro-gamblers mentality to see through the losing periods, not be a pro gambler! You say that we could have another 26 losers or whatever, but thats gambling and if you cant put up with the swings then why gamble? I think it does matter about the profits made in the past as it proves it delivers long term, and the second places proves he is not far off the mark. You can easily pick holes in tipsters here and there when they are in down periods but its the long term that matters so i dont hink its immaterial about past profits. After all you pick a horse in a race based on its ‘past’ form, so the past does matter as that gives the overall picture. So if mousecliffe had a 5/1 & 7/1 winner today then thats 12 points back so cant understand why some think it would take weeks?
jayjay has pretty much covered what I was going to say but I’ll just add a few bits…
The simple fact is that a 100 point betting bank is advised with this to cover the inevitable ups and downs that occur in gambling. Despite the very poor run, nobody following the instructions is anywhere near that 100 point mark – in fact, it would take another awful week to get even halfway towards it.
For those that say “a bank is all well and good in theory but I’ve lost a fortune already” your stakes are too high. If you are not prepared to lose the betting bank, then you shouldn’t have signed up and started using real money stakes (nothing wrong with paper trading) in the first place.
It is very much like giving somebody a deadline to complete an exam by Friday and then failing them because it’s Tuesday and they haven’t started yet.
As for the 20% point – yes, an ROI of 20% is a good one and at that level it would take a while to recoup losses BUT that isn’t how gambling works. In gambling you will very often get a week that loses 20 points with a highly negative ROI, followed by a week that wins 25 points with an ROI of 100%+. The ROI would then balance out to a more normal figure e.g. 20%.
Good runs invariably follow bad providing the system behind the selections is solid (hence the relevance of past performance) and at present there is no need to panic.
All agreed, as I made the point, commit a bank that you can afford to lose. Stake without emotion, decreasing or increasing to chase losses will never work. There will be losing runs and some will be significant. That’s why you have a bank. My stats are based on fact. Mouse returned under 20% but still a damned good return over 500 bets. 1100 bets a year is mentioned and that’s £11k turned over at £10 per bet to yield a profit of £2200. A long term yield of 20% is first class. Yes, you could recoup the 32 points this week or it could take 200 trades to recover, isn’t that the point?
If the fundamentals are right then there are no worries but enter with your eyes open and your expectations conservative.
All this talk is all good and well but the promotions don’t mention the almost 30 point loss in 4 weeks and Agora clearly don’t respond to emails although they are very quick at putting out their marketing. We live in hope but again not a good start today!!!!
First selection today was withdrawn so you should get your money back.
If the marketing was updated every couple of weeks nothing else would ever get done.
Hip hip, first winner in a long long time!!!!
Some very good points made matt,about 7 points profit today.Im not worried about the start we,ve had because im sure this will turn into profit in the long term.
Its not 6 weeks im looking at, but 52 weeks.
What’s happened to members area, can’t login and no email notifying any changes?
Same here. But put in password from e mail on the weekly update from Feb 4th. I think this was the last one. It works anyway
Tried that, no joy, must be off the Christmas card list
The password hasn’t changed and I’ve not had any problems so not sure what the issue is there.
Sorted thank you, just had to phone customer services no idea why it blocked.
Going to the pub,,,,,, had enough, then going skiing for a week. When I come back I’ll have renewed my enthusiasm, I hope,
Wishing you a return to profit
Cheer up bluejohn, it’s been a profitable week so far! About nine points in fact.
Have a good trip
Really, I missed out somewhere, I’ll have to go through my bets again,,,,,, 9 points? I’m doing something wrong.
Well it’s pretty straightforward…
Monday, two selections, one winner, one each-way place +8
Tuesday, one loser -1
Wednesday, one winner, three losers 0
Thursday, nothing
Friday, one loser, one winner, +0.75
Did you miss Monday’s bets maybe?
Sure did, never mind , live to fight another day
If it makes you feel a bit better bluejohn, Matt is a bit high with his numbers. It’s around 6 points up this week. But still a good week and more what we longer term guys expect from the great man
yep, I have Mon +6.5 (2 non-runners void, 7 back for the win, 1.5 for the placing pick), so +6.25 Mon-Fri. Will put the week’s spread at the bottom of the page over the weekend as normal.
hi – i can’t get into the site and agora are off for the weekend so can’t phone customer services. is it the same one as feb the 4th still because if it is then it’s not working for me. Don’t suppose somebody could do me a favour and email the selections to turnonasixpence@googlemail.com could they if there are any.
Phil
Morning Punterboy,
The password’s the same, you just need to type it in again. (IIRC had to delete the dots and re-enter same password.) Let us know that that’s worked. Bets up at half-nine.
Thanks for that Mousecliffe – previously I copied and pasted from the email so I don’t know what went on there but it’s sorted now.
Now that I’ve broken cover as it were, I’d just like to say how much I enjoy following your tips, and have done so from the beginning of December. I’m in it for the long haul so best of luck to everyone today and beyond.
And, in turn, thank you for that. Good to hear!
Good day today Miles, should keep the moaners quiet ( for a little while anyway! )
Keep doing what you’re doing.
Will
Cheers Will, yep will do.
Echo what BetMaster says. Back on track Miles. Already halved the deficit in just a few days. Never in doubt for those of us who have had the pleasure of making money from your great tips for months now. Thanks
I would hardly call myself a moaner, my gripe was merely with all the hype around the system and the relentless email messages. This was incredibly annoying given the losses that had taken place in the first few weeks. What was also annoying was the endorsement by Matt earlier which was also incorrect in respect of the profit for this week.
I am also in for the long haul based on previous results and given that I have paid my subscription I think I am entitled to vent on occasion.
I have no issue with Miles at all just Agora.
Havent been able to log in for a few days now !!! I assume Agora are having a few gremlins in the system ! Would it not be easier and more practical to e-mail the selections to members inbox ? I only ask this because all the other tipsters in my portfolio do this.Because I have to check morning selections on my mobile unless I have good reception it can be difficult to get them.E-mails tend to come through ok though.
Hopefully we can get back on track now.
Hi Kev, The password’s the same. Try deleting the dots and re-enter same password as from the 4th.
Well lets see if we can continue this form into the third month!!!
Lol, looking good!!!
You are a rather annoying man/woman. You write above that you are “in for the long haul” which would imply that you are betting with the rest of us. So I have no idea what is “lol” about losing money! Very strange.
Your comments are petty and pointless
Well it is nice to get a reply, I am indeed in for the long haul and given that I have paid my money I am fully entitled to comment. I only bet with money that I can afford to lose so if I want to laugh about that then again it is my choice. Whether I am male or female or indeed strange is neither here nor there, but if you deem my comments to be petty and pointless why bother replying!!!
Freedom of speech is allowed, surely. There is frustration out there. I am now 57 bets since my account last exceeded my starting balance and today I received a mail from More Money Review extolling the virtues of a service that has still failed to produce a profit since the subs were paid. It’s a long term view that’s needed but credibility and integrity is undermined when there is a constant desire to recruit new members and no mention is made of existing performance.
Robertpb, of course and what you write is constructive and well argued. I have not got any mail/email pushing the service since the start, but can understand your frustration if you do keep getting them. Every year I get really mad around August when we get multiple emails pushing the “simplex” method, which is possibly the worst system I have ever seen.
sjrmacleod, and laughing when my prediction come good is not constructive!!! It again is incredible that the emails keep on coming.
i think maybe the reason why they are pushing it’s is due to the fact it made 93 points profit in public view!! how many services can you say that about?
Agreed and we know there will be good runs and bad ones. Long term stats are where you live or die. Hopefully things will recover but when the advised bank is depleted significantly it doesn’t matter how many people tell you that’s what a bank is for its still your hard earned that took time to earn and it will hurt. Blind faith can be dangerous and it is only correct that people check and question.
My bank has lost 50% of its value this year due to 3 poorly performing services in my portfolio that are all enjoying a poor run. Sadly this is one of them.
I had another e-mail today, I now have to hurry as there are only limited places left with Four Factors. God knows how many members there are now or what the turnover has been. Still no mention of current performance which has reduced the overall return significantly. If you are pushing something be honest !
Hi Robert,
A number of good points over a few posts and I’ll try to get back to you in the next day or two.
Hey Guys
Is this system still going? How do you get the current selections?
Gary
Hi Gary,
It’s still going, but subscription only now- £97 for the year. It hasn’t been a good start to the year so far, but hopefully will be back on track soon enough. 30 day trial so you can see for yourself how it’s going and if it suits.
But Robert you shouldnt be gambling with your hard earned cash, it should be money you can afford to lose. I know its been said hundreds of times before but that’s what the bank is there for as you cant always hit the ground running. Gambling is risky and there will be swings. Of course it hurts when bank goes down but if it hurts too much then gambling may not be for those that found it tough when the bank dips.
Charlie, what happens when the 100 point bank is gone?
Firstly, the last month has been my worst spell since going public last July. That’s not to say there haven’t been previous downturns, because there have been, however they have been recovered from.
Don’t forget that the previous results include those downturns and the eventual recovery is shown in the stats and profit you are aware of.
Considering this worst spell has been less than a third of the bank and the previous months had almost doubled the bank, despite a few downturns in the process, suggests that for your question to happen there would have to be a sustained and remarkable transformation in results from last year to this.
Kempton has been the weakest venue so far and much of the weekend has been spent focusing on this- so it’s certainly not the case of burying head in sand and carrying on regardless, without any scrutiny- and digesting and tweaking where appropriate, but at the same time not making unmerited changes.
Charlie,
I have been trading for years and my bank is ‘working capital’. I have been here before and I will arrive here again in the future. I am not bleating about poor performance and my portfolio is balanced risk albeit a proportion is having a poor spell. Money is emotive and I doubt many genuinely have money they can afford to lose or want to. My concern is with the advice. I know the risks and accept them. New entrants don’t and the marketing is likely to lead people into something they are ill prepared for. Mouse is engaged in a battle I pay my fees for and I wish him and all of us a well.
Mouse,
Don’t worry about replying. I joined with my eyes open. If you manage to find more winners than the bookies odds assessors price the risk at then we will win. It’s just maths. Focus on what we pay you for but a chat with marketing would probably gain you credibility. The lady enquiring on the board the other day is probably a newbie, wishes to try and raise some extra cash and believes Foreign exchange trading and horseracing is the answer. Over 90% of gamblers never win……fact !
Is anyone else having trouble logging in?
Did you get the new password on the email?
No never got the email
Maybe you’ve been censored
Lol as long as they return my subscription.
Hmmm that’s odd. Give customer services a call on 0207 633 3630 from 9 in the morning. First selection of day not until 3.20, by the way, but should be quite busy thereafter. (I’ll warn the Censorship Squad and get them ready for your call
)
Thanks Mousecliff I will bell them in the morning.
Southwell sucks today, certainly starting to suck my bank
Another bad day at the office.
May be worth waiting til the end of the day…
hear hear
I waited but still not in profit!
Caledonia Prince dropped to 5.5 at time of posting. Thecornishcockney was advised at 3 but was available higher until late in the day. Using advised stakes returned a very small profit on the day.
Hi Mouse,
not working for me at the mo, I’m -29 points, add my subscription I’m – 39.5 points, when I get to -50 points my bank will be – 50% ie £500 down. This also happened following ‘bet fair’ last year however,I was confident of a recovery with this system. When/if I get to -50% I am going to stop and wait till summer as it will probably take sometime to regain those points and going on past performance there is a good chance of that happening in the mid part of the year. If I continue I cannot see getting to summer with any bank remaining. Sorry to be negative but I want this to work but I also want to give myself the best chance of having having more than 100% bank at year end.
Considering there is supposed to be 300 people following this service this is the quietest forum I have ever been on, more life in the House of Lords on a Saturday evening! zzzzzzzzzzzzz!
Maybe nobody can afford the broadband anymore ?
Another loss today, albeit a small one. I did say, many posts ago that it could statistically take 200 bets to recover the loss and I was told ‘that wasn’t how betting worked’. I am still keen to be proven wrong.
You could all do what i did at the end of January,stop betting on the selections,i have saved quite a bit on my bank doing this.I have found that beach racing is very hard to make money on,best just to follow trainers that specialise on the stuff,still thought i would give this a go and decided at end of January due to the poor run i would stop and just paper trade.I guessed right,mousecliff gives a good account of why his selections should win but most of them do not so my advise would be if your not comfortable with this at the moment stop.I am restarting when were back on turf where it’s a lot easier to pick winners as more true to form.I have a little dent in the bank but that is what it is there for.I am no doubt though that after the 2nd month of losses that the extra 100 places that were snapped up after the first month will all be available again due to them all cancelling for the refund and you could hardly blame them.So to us who are in for the duration here’s to a change of fortune when were back on turf and then we can say told you so and reap the benefits.Losing runs are part of gambling and if you cannot hack it do not do it.
Sound advice sparkeydave, can you post when you are back in the running, think I’ll take a rest and top up my bank
Maybe it was launched too early. Whilst there were 500 bets overall, what was the return on the all weather?
The main all weather racing season effectively starts after Christmas and we have no data as to how effective the selection process is in this period. Are we backing an untested period?
There was the big losing run at the beginning of Feb. We all know that. It’s been discussed. Since then, in the last three weeks there has been a loss of one point. Far, far from ideal, obviously, and not the beginning of the desired recovery, but neither a continuation that run. Still standing at down a third of the bank. (As made clear in the last email, I wasn’t happy with the performances during the week before last but not unhappy with the weeks either side.)
In the last four weeks alone, 102 points has slipped away in 2nd places (over 3 times the amount returned from winners from singles). Some may think a loss is a loss, but in evaluating performance I think that’s pretty darn important information.
The AW had a profit of 34 points in 2012 from the beginning of the season in November.
Thanks Mouse,
Never comfortable sticking your head above the parapet. Comments on the board suggest members are preserving their remaining banks for the forthcoming turf season. Looking back at your data, would you say that you are stronger on the turf flat. The 34 points on the all weather last year has been wiped out this year bringing limited returns. I know that all the hard work and study still relies on an element of luck and the string of seconds gives testament to the solidity of the selection process.
Here’s to a change of luck !
Hi, does anyone know how to recover a password? I deleted it by mistake, too many beers…
If you contact customer services they’ll send it to you…
https://contactus.agoralifestyles.co.uk/al/