What’s it all about?
“Whilst many horse racing punters invest time and money into studying the same factors such as form, course, distance, going and so on, they are often missing other factors which would give them an edge if only they strayed from the herd. Inevitably, the seemingly most obvious indicators also drag down prices and remove value. By finding different angles you can find horses which offer genuine value, are real contenders and hold their prices.
“After a fair few years of thinking in such an ABC way, I began looking at ways which would escape most punters viewpoints. A few years and a more than a bit of tweaking later and I ended up on the FLAT FOUR FACTOR SELECTION PROCESS.
“What are these four factors? Ok, loosely speaking they are trainer, jockey, time of year and distance. There is, of course a fifth factor, which is more than a fair bit of research. At this point, it may just sound like words without substance, so let me flesh it out just a little bit:
“I’m looking for trainers with a good record over certain conditions;
I’m looking for jockeys with a good record over certain conditions;
(I’m looking for their combination to be successful too)
I’m looking for the above to be successful at this time of year and over the respective distances.
“Beyond that, I’m also basing selections upon high strike rates, consistency and, most importantly, a significantly positive historical ROI.
“I want high win strike rates so this gives a consistent return and not hit huge highs and lows which is probable with higher odds betting (average odds are around 6 or 7 and most selections in single figures, but with e/w often used in double-figures odds when they’re selected, but again dependent upon certain conditions – this certainly isn’t a 40/1, 50/1, 33/1 and hope to have a lucky run, get rich quick or go bust system/service.)”
“Whilst many punters are just focusing on the horse, they are neglecting the value of a jockey being given a specific ride; how a yard has been performing; the annual trends; the skills of a jockey over specific distances and a trainer’s tendancy to prosper or not over sprints or longer races.
“The profits have been impressive, but what is most striking is how consistently selections run above their value.
“This one is a steady and easy to follow service with an average or between 3 and 4 selections a day (though this normally means more on bigger race days and 1 or 2 days a week without selections or maybe with 1 or 2- it does vary, but 100 a month is typical).”
Sport: Horseracing (flat and all weather)
Bet type: Back bets with occasional win and each-way multiples
Number of bets: Average of three to four a day
Starting bank: £1000 to £10 stakes
Stake: Level stakes
Phase One Stats (points not pounds)
Single Win Only Bets
Returned (using Best Odds Guaranteed as advised): 227.69
Returned (using Betfair Starting Prices after 5% deduction) 211.74
Top Three Finishers: 102 (58.29%)
Returned (using Best Odds Guaranteed): 44.58
Returned (using Betfair Starting Prices after 5% deduction) :44.85
3 wins, 7 placed
‘Other’ Bets (doubles, Yankies, Super Yankies, Without Favourite, Forecast)
Returned to Industry SP: 11.93
Phase Two Stats (points not pounds)
Phase Three Stats (points not pounds)
Total Stats (after Phase Three)
Single Win Bets
Staked: 336 (77.56% of outlay)
Returned (using Best Odds Guaranteed bookies): 397.80
Returned (using Betfair Starting Prices: 387.90
Returned after commision deducted: 372.56
1st 81 (24.11%)
2nd 59 (17.56%)
3rd 49 (14.58%)
Top 3 finishers 189 (56.25%)
Staked: 67 (15.47% of outlay)
Returned (using BOG bookies): 64.58
Returned (using BSP): 65.77
Returned after commision deducted: 62.93
All Other Bets (Multiples, etc.)
Staked: 30.20 (6.97% of outlay)
Phase Four Stats (points not pounds)
Final Overall Stats (points not pounds)