Karlos: Progressive Football Plan
What’s it all about?
“Okay then I’m really interested in this. I would like to offer my own personal football betting service. Bets can be from any country in the world and are always on the short side pricewise – between 1.5 and 2.0 on Betfair (normal bookmakers can also be used). BUT, here is the key. The selections hit an extremely high strike rate and I have had runs of 15 and 16 winners in a row on many occasions. Because of the low risk I use this in conjunction with my own staking plan, which increases the stake after a losing bet and decreases after a winning one. It’s what I would call a huge improvement on the Fibonacci staking plan.
“There is no set limit as to the number of selections on any day. There may be none or there may be three, it depends on the opportunities available.
“This is really profitable and I have never released it, not even to one person so I believe it is ideal for the betting market.
“The selections are based on my own knowledge and I apply certain factors to the matches which must be met before a bet can be considered but I’ll do all the work and provide you with the selections, the prices available and the stake required to be placed.”
Sport: Football
Bet type: Single win bets
Number of bets: 1-2 per day
Starting bank: 150 points
Stake:
Sequence
1, 3, 5, 8, 11, 15, 20
Winners
BSP 1.01 – 1.74 = Down the sequence 1 step
BSP 1.75 – 2.49 = Down the sequence 2 steps
BSP 2.50 and above = Reset
In other words the first bet is 1 pt win. It continues like this until we have a loser. After a loser the next bet is 3 pts. Should that also lose the next bet is 5 pts. If the next bet wins then we move back down the staking sequence as follows:
If the price is 1.01 – 1.74 we move down 1 step so the next bet would be 3 pts. If the price is greater than 1.74 we move down 2 steps so the next bet is back to 1 pt. We continue like this with all bets until such time as the stake reverts to 1 pt.
Each bet placed on the site will be clearly marked with the stake required.
Results
Phase One Stats (points not pounds)
Staked: 207
Return: 240.22
Profit: 33.22
ROI: 16.05%
Win Percentage: 62/93 66.66%
Phase Two Stats (points not pounds)
Staked: 272
Return: 228.65
Profit: -43.35
ROI: -15.94%
Phase Three Stats (points not pounds)
Staked: 125
Return: 135.96
Profit: +10.96
ROI: +8.77%
Final Overall Stats (points not pounds)
Staked: 604
Return: 604.83
Profit: +0.83
ROI: +0.14%
Strike Rate: 98/184 = 59.76%
Category: Betting Systems, Proofing, The T Factor
Here we go with our first match then. Its in Finland. Viekkausliga.
FC Inter Turku v IFK Mariehamn
1 pt win on FC Inter Turku at 1.73 on Betfair.
Running Total +0.00 pts
No joy with our first bet so we move on today with the following.
Finland. Ykkonen. AC OULO v HAMEENLINNA
3 pts win AC OULO at 1.59 Betfair
Running Total -1.00 pts
A bit disappointing with the Oulo match which finished 0-0.
Next bet is at 11.30 tonight.
Brazil Division 2
Criciuma v Guarani
5 pts win Criciuma at 1.58
Running Total -4.00 pts
Right, we’re in business now. Criciuma won last night for a profit of 2.76 pts after deducting commission at 5%
We have one game tonight at 8.00 pm as follows:
Iceland 1st Division
Fjolnir v IR Reykjavik
3 pts win Fjolnir at 7/10 Sporting Bet
Running Total -1.24 pts
Fjolnir had no problem winning last night and we made a profit of 2.1 pts on the bet.
There is nothing suitable today so I’ll be back tomorrow.
Running Total +0.86 pts
Hi Karlos.
I could be interested in reviewing your method for my website and newsletter – possibly promoting you.
We need to open some dialogue first.
Be in touch, please.
email: footballbettingprofit@hotmail.com
Thanks,
Phil
We’re off to Lithuania today. No great price but it’s profit we’re after.
Lithuania A Lyga
Banga v Atlantis
1 pt win Banga at 9/20 Sportingbet
Running Total +0.86
A good result for us yesterday and we move on by going to Sweden today.
Sweden Division 2
Torns v Kvarnby
1 pt win Torns at 4-6 B365 VC K.O. 1.00pm
Running Total +1.31
Torns were successful for us earlier today and there is an opportunity to add to the profits tonight.
Norwegian Tippeligaen
Molde v Sogndal
1 pt win Molde at 1.48 Betfair
Running Total +1.98
Another successful bet yesterday which left us with a profit of 0.46 pts after Betfair commission of 5%.
Today we go to Norway.
Division 2. Follo v Senja
1 pt win Follo at 7/10 Sporting Odds
Running Total +2.44 pts
Hey Karl
Just thought i’d pop in and say well done
Things have started to pick up a little for you now so keep up the good work
A successful end to our first week. After a disappointing start we bounced back with six consecutive winning bets.
Profit on week 3.14 pts
Staked 16 pts
Return on Investment 19.6%
As it’s the first week those figures are the same as the running total.
Thanks Dirk for the comment. Keep reading and watch the profits grow. Glad I’ve got one reader at least. Karl
A possibility of two bets today so please do check again at 15.30
In the meantime we go to Russia.
Division 1. Tom Tomsk v Baltika
1 pt win Tom Tomsk at 8/13 Stan James
Running Total +3.14 pts
Baltika equalised in the 94th minute to bring our recent run of winning bets to a close. Disappointing but these things happen.
There is nothing further today and I’ll be back in the morning.
Running Total +2.14 pts
Bad luck today Karl
Keep up the good work
A strong possibility of two bets today so please check again at 15:30
Meanwhile we’ll try and recover yesterdays loss by returning to Russia.
Division 1 Sibir v Khimki
3 pts win Sibir at 1.76 Betfair
Hi Karl,
Well what a game that was. Two red cards and two late goals almost spoiled it like yesterday.
Keep up the good work.
Thanks for that robbiek23. Keeps the nerves on edge
Success then for Sibir and we have another match coming shortly.
Norway Division 2
Lorenskog v Stabaek
1 pt win Lorenskog at 8/13 BWin
Running Total +4.31 (5% commission taken off on Betfair selections)
A good day yesterday with both selections winning. On Monday we got stung by a 94th minute goal but these things tend to even themselves out and sure enough, Sibir scored in that exact same minute to leave us happy. lorenskog won very comfortably.
Today we have a game kicking off at 11.00 am
South Korea
Jeonbuk Motors v Pohang Steelers
1 pt win Jeonbuk at 1.87 Betfair
Running Total +4.92 pts
Success with Jeonbuk and we move on to Brazil late tonight.
Kick off is 11.30 pm.
Brazil Serie A
Internacional v Nautico
1 pt win Internacional at 4/9 WHill Pinnacle
Running Total +5.75 pts
A disappointing result last night when the match ended 0-0.
Just the one game today.
Sweden Division 2
Lindome v Fassbergs
3 pts win Lindome at 8/11 B365 VC
Running Total +4.75 pts
What can I say, you certainly know how to pick the eventful games. I guess it’s not about what happens in the game but the result that counts and you came up trumps again.
I am enjoying following these football tips, rather than the more risky horses.
Rob
Thanks Rob. Glad you are enjoying it. The last few games have cetainly been eventful, as you say.
Lindome won yesterday in an eventful match. It’s the result that counts though and we made a decent profit.
Today there is just the one game for us.
Austria Division 1
Austria Lustenau v SV Grodig
1 pt win Austria Lustenau at 11/14 Pinnacle
Running Total +6.93
With five minutes to go last night we looked home and dry with a 2-0 lead but then Grodig scored twice in two minutes to spoil the party.
Today we have one match this afternoon and a possibility of one later so there will be another message at 3.00 pm
Sweden Division 2
Torns v Rosengard
3 pts win Torn at 4/5 Bet365
Running Total +5.93
No complaints with the Torn result. They were well beaten. Another match for later.
Finland Veikkausliga
IFK Mariehamn v FF Jarro
5 pts win Mariehamn at 13/15 Pinnacle
Running Total +2.93
Mariehamn did the business for us yesterday afternoon and we now revert back to 1 pt win on the next bet.
Today we go to Sweden Allsvenkan
AIK v Orebro
1 pt win AIK at 1.53 Betfair
Running Total +7.26 pts
AIK brought a good week to a decent end, winning 3-0. Figures for the week are:
Profit on week 4.62 pts
Staked 20 pts
Return on Investment 23.1%
Overall:
Staked 36 pts
Return on Investment 21.5%
Running Total 7.76 pts
keep up the good work
The start of a new week and we go to Sweden. This is the only bet today.
Sweden Division 1 North
Sirius v Vasteras SK K.O. 18.00
1 pt win Sirius 8/13 Sportingbet
Running Total +7.76 pts
Sirius took their time but eventually won comfortably yesterday. Not at all easy today with many sides playing their first game of the season but I have found a match that appeals in Iceland.
Iceland Division 2
HK Kopavogur v Fjardabyggd
1 pt win HK Kopavogur at 1.41 Betfair
Running Total +8.37 pts
Success in Iceland for us last night. Today we have a game in Germany that kicks off at 1.00 pm and also there will be a 3.30 pm update today.
Germany Regionalliga Bayern
Viktoria Aschaffenburg v 1860 Munnich 2
1 pt win Viktoria at 1/1 PP SpBet
Running Total +8.76 pts
Viktoria were very disappointing this afternoon but we get a quick chance to recover with a match in Poland tonight.
Poland Liga 1
Zawisza Bydgoszcz v Tychy 71
3 pts win Zawisza at 8/13 B365 St James
Running Total +7.76
Just one of those days yesterday. Tychy had two men sent off last night but still the home team couldn’t score.
Today there is absolutely nothing doing and I’ll be back in the morning.
Running Total +4.76
Back in action today with one match.
Austria 1 Liga
SV Grodig v Hartberg
5 pts win Grodig at 8/11 Stan James
Running Total +4.76
We suffered a boring 0-0 draw yesterday and for the first time we reach the 8 pt stage on the system. Hopefully we’ll move down from there after today. First match at 1.00 pm then another message at 3.00 pm.
Norway Division 2
Fyllingsdalen v Skeid
8 pts win Fyllingsdalen at 13/20 Sportingbet
Running Total -0.24 pts
Wow! No goals until 20 mins from time then it all happens. We eventually won 3-2 though.
We now move down the staking scale 1 pt and it’s 5 pts on the next bet.
That is tonight at 6.00 pm
Danish Superliga
Copenhagen v Brondby
5 pts win Copenhagen at 1.65 Betfair
Running Total +4.96
Despite all their pressure, Copenhagen failed to add to their opening goal and Brondby scored an equaliser five minutes from time.
Today could be a busy day for us. Here is the first match and there will be an update after it has finished.
Japan League 2
Kyoto v Yokohama K.O. 11.00am
8 pts win Kyoto at 19/20 Bet365 WHill
Running Total -0.04
Too little notice for me Karl a need 2 -3 hours especially as it’s Sunday!
Shame ‘cos it looks like you are on a winner!
Sure, I appreciate that but if this service ever goes live I’m sure we could look at texting as well as online messaging. Also I’m not suggesting the next match is imminent just advising of an update.
Okay, Kyoto have done the job for us, if somewhat nervously and we’ve made a decent profit on the bet.
For our next match today we go to Hungary. Again, there will be an update after the game.
Hungary NB1
Honved v Paksi SE K.O. 3.30 pm
3 pts win Honved at 9/10 Stan James
Running Total +7.56
On the pace now. Texting would be good if you can do it
What a match the last one was. Honved were asleep in the first half and went 3-1 down. They pulled it back to 3-3 in the second half but that was it.
Final match today:
Brazil Serie A
Atletico MG v Botafogo RJ
5 pts win Atletico at 1.81 Betfair
Running Total +4.56
Atletico won 3-2 with a last gasp goal. The matches have certainly kept us on edge recently.
Anyway, that produced a profit of 3.85 pts and the overall profit is +8.41 pts.
A bit of a tough week which ended in a very small profit. Current figures are 17 winning selections from 28 bets for a strike rate of 60.71% and a ROI of 11.06%.
Running Total +8.41 pts
Just one match for us today after a hectic Sunday.
Romania Liga 1
Pandurii Targu Jiu v Otelul Galati K.O. 17.00
1 pt win Pandurii at 13/14 188Bet
Running Total +8.41
We certainly are being pushed to the limit of our emotions at the moment. Otelul equalised in injury time yesterday but then Pandurii went straight to the other end and got the winner with seconds remaining, for another profitable bet.
Today we have one match this afternoon and an update at 7.00pm.
Slovakia Corgon Liga
Zilina v Spartak Trnava K.O. 4.30pm
1 pt win Zilina at 8/13 Bet Victor
Running Total +9.34
An 84th minute equaliser from Spartak scuppered the early evening bet but hopefully we can pull the loss back quickly with the following:
Iceland Division 1
Fjolnir v Leiknir Reykjavik
3 pts win Fjolnir at 8/13 Sportingbet
Running Total +8.34 pts
Fjolnir won 2-1 last night to quickly get us back on track. It also took the profit figure into double figures for the first time.
Today we have a late afternoon match with a 7.00pm update to follow.
Finland Veikkausliga
TPS v Haka K.O. 4.30pm
1 pt win TPS at 6/11 Pinnacle
Running Total +10.19 pts
Well, we had absolutely no problem with TPS who were 5-0 up at half time and eventually won by a massive 9-2. If only they were all that easy!!
Unfortunately, that’s it for today. The game I was interested in no longer matches the necessary criteria so I’ll be back by 11.00am Thursday morning.
Running Total +10.74 pts
One bet now and a 3.00pm update.
Korean Republic K League
Suwon Bluewings v Daejeon Citizen
1 pt win Suwon 6/10 Will Hill
Running Total +10.74 pts
Suwon Bluewings could manage no more than a draw this lunchtime and we now move on to the final bet today.
Sweden Division 2
Lindome v Gunnilse K.O. 6.00pm
3 pts win Lindome at 3/5 BWin
Running Total +9.74 pts
Lindome could only manage a 2-2 draw yesterday so we move on up the staking sequence.
Denmark Division 2 East K.O. 5.30
Hvidovre v HIK
5 pts win Hvidovre at 4/7 BWin
Nothing else for today but a busy weekend in prospect. First message online by 11.00am tomorrow.
Running Total +6.74 pts
Straight into action on what will probably be a busy day for us. Update at 1.30pm.
Japan J League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima v FC Tokyo
3 pts win Hiroshima at 22/23 Pinnacle
Yesterday was a comfortable success for us.
Running Total +9.6 pts
Hiroshima were very disappointing and we lost 3 pts on the game.
There will be an update at 4.15pm
Next match is:
Sweden Division 1 North Ostersunds FK v IK Frej
5 pts win Ostersunds at 13/19 188Bet
Running Total +6.6 pts
Ostersunds won 3/1 for us and we now move on to Poland for our next bet.
Poland Division 1
Flota Swinoujscie v TKS Tychy K.O. 4.30pm
3 pts win Flota at 8/11 B365
Next update at 6.30pm
Running Total +10.02
Flota were successful for us, winning 1-0 and that now gives us a new high in the profits and also takes us back to our initial 1 pt stake.
It’s been a busy day but Saturdays and Sundays are usually going to be like that. We’ll finish the day with the following:
Brazil Division 2
Sao Caetano v Guarani K.O. 8.00pm
1 pt win Sao Caetano at 4/5 Stan James BWin Will Hill
Running Total +12.2
No joy last night as Caetano lost 2-1 despite being ahead at the interval.
We start with the following match today and an update at 1.15pm.
Japan League 2
Montedio Yamagata v Machida Zelvia
3 pts win Montedio at 1.63 Betfair
Running Total +11.2 pts
A comfortable 3-1 win for Montedio this morning.
Our next bet is as follows:
Sweden Division 1 North
Vasalunds IF v Vasby United K.O. 4.00pm
1 pt win Vasalunds at 7/10 188Bet
Update at 6.15pm
Running Total +13.09
Vasalunds won 3-2 for us this afternoon.
I have re-adjusted the profit figure because I failed to take into account the Betfair commission on the Montedio bet. That’s now done.
That is also it for today. Quite a lot of matches tonight but none that quite meet the required criteria.
We’ve had a decent week and I’ll do all the figures and post them in the morning.
Running Total +13.7
Hello Karl
I have recently started to follow you, so a latecomer, but impressed. I note that in your preamble you say you use Betfair, but some of your recent bets have been with other bookmakers. Is this because the matches are unavailable on Betfair or because the bookmakers are offering better odds?
Interested because i like to use Betfair as much as possible.
Tahnks
Roger
Hi Roger
Thanks for the comments. I would normally use Betfair because the odds are usually better but just recently it seems the bookmakers have been having the edge. I am also aware that there is often little liquidity in the Betfair markets, especially early on and as I know that followers would struggle to get a price I recommend I do take that into account as well. At the end of the day you can bet with who you wish but I would recommend sticking to those firms I suggest so that you maximise your profits.
I trust that answers your question.
Last week was a good one for us. 31 pts staked returned 36.38 pts for a profit of 5.38 pts and ROI of 17.35% The strike rate is being maintained at 61%
Today we start this afternoon. Update at 5.30pm
Blue Square Premier
Macclesfield v Barrow K.O. 3.00pm
1 pt win Macclesfield at 1/2 Betfred Tote Lads BSq SJ
Running Total +13.7
Hello Karl
yes I can understand that, I have a number of accounts so that should not cause an undue problem.
Keep up the good work and let’s have a good day.
Roger
A good start to the week for us with Macclesfield winning 2-0 this afternoon.
We now move on to our next match which is:
Sweden Division 1 Sodra
IK Oddevold v Utsiktens BK K.O. 6.00pm
1 pt win Oddevold at 9/20 B365
That’s it for today. Back before 11.00am tomorrow.
Running Total +14.2 pts
Two successful selections yesterday and hopefully I can add to that today.
We have a match kicking off at 1.00pm and then a 3.15 update.
Russia Division 1
Tom Tomsk v Shinnik Jaroslavi K.O. 1.00pm
1 pt win Tomsk at 1.43 Betfair
Running Total +14.65
No problems for Tomsk who won 3-1. We now move on to our next bet with an update to follow at 6.30pm.
Lithuania League 1
Lietava Jonava v Polonija Vilnius
1 pt win Lietava at 5/6 B365
Running Total +15.06
The last game was an excellent result for us with Lietava winning 4-1.
For our final match today we go to:
Iceland Division 1
Thor v Tindastoll K.O. 7.30pm
1 pt win Thor at 11/21 188Bet
Back online by 11.00am in the morning.
Running Total +15.89
Hello Karl
another good day. Interesting you avoided the Capital Cup, some real stinkers there!
Keep up the good work
Roger
Cheers Roger. We’re on a bit of a run at the moment and long may it continue.
Another good day yesterday with three out of three. Today is a bit quieter but we start this afternoon in Finland with an update to follow at 6.30pm
Finland Ykkonen
RoPS (Rovaniemi) v KooTeePee K.O. 4.30pm
1 pt win RoPS at 9/20 BetVictor
Running Total +16.41 pts
Sorry for the late posing. Had Internet connection problems and had to travel.
Good result this afternoon for us but as a result of the problems that will have to be it for today. I should be back online by 11.00am in the morning.
RoPS won comfortably yesterday to continue our good run.
Just one game for us today, as follows:
Iceland Premier League
Hafnarfjordur v IBV Vestmannaeyjar K.O. 7.00pm
1 pt win Hafnarfjordur at 5/6 Pinnacle
Running Total +16.86
A good result again yesterday and it’s been a good week so far. There is a match for later today but at the moment there is very little liquidity on Betfair and only two bookmakers have so far priced up so there will be an update message at 3.00pm.
Running Total +17.69
On to todays match then, which is as follows and it’s the only game today. Next message by 11.00am in the morning.
Finland Kakkonen South
AIFK v Klubi 04 K.O. 4.30pm
1 pt win AIFK at 3/5 BWin
Running Total +17.69 pts
We were stung by a last gasp equaliser yesterday which ended our sequence of wins having gone nine in a row.
Today will be busy, as always on a Saturday with an update to follow at 2.45pm
Singapore S League
Hougang United v Woodlands Wellington K. O. 12.45
3 pts win Hougang at 1.61 Betfair
Running Total +16.69
Hougang managed to blow aq 2-0 lead to draw.
We move quickly now with an update at 5.00pm
English League 1
Crawley Town v Leyton Orient K.O. 3.00pm
5 pts win Crawley at 7/10 Bl Sq 888
Running Total +13.69
Crawley made hard work of it but did the job.
For our next and last match today we go to
Argentina Primera B
Independiente Rivadavia v Ferro Carril Oeste K.O. 7.00pm
3 pts win Independiente at 9/8 188Bet
I can’t believe the price for the home team who should be about 1.7
Running Total +17.19
Our last match was a draw so it’s back up the staking sequence for us.
Our first match today is in Germany and this will be followed by a 3.15pm update.
Germany Regionalliga West
Viktoria Koln v Rot-Weiss Oberhausen K.O. 1.00pm
5 pts win Viktoria at 4/7 Stan James
Running Total +14.19
Success for Victoria Koln, winning 2-0.
We move on now but lease note there will be a further update at 6.15pm.
Denmark Superliga
Nordsjaelland v Brondby K.O. 4.00pm
3 pts win Nordsjaelland at 7/12 188Bet
Running Total +17.05
Nordsj just couldn’t score against Brondby so we’re on the way up again with our stake.
For our last match today we go to Chile.
Chile Primera B
Barnechea v Puerto Montt K.O. 8.00pm
5 pts win Barnechea at 6/11 BWin
Running Total +14.05 pts
Barnechea scored a late goal last night to ensure success for us.
Figures at the end of the week are:
Week 5 32 points staked return 35.08 9.62 ROI
Running Total 139 points staked return 155.87 11.99 ROI
Win Percentage 33/55 60%
Today we start this afternoon with an update at 6.45pm
Finland Veikkausliga
Inter Turku v VPS K.O. 4.30pm
3 pts win Inter Turku at 14/19 Pinnacle
Running Total +16.78
A good result to start the week with a comfortable 2-0 success for Inter Turku.
The next match is the last tonight with the first update online by 11.00am in the morning.
Iceland Premier League
Hafnarfjordur v Keflavik
1 pt win Hafnarfjordur at 2/5 B365 VC WHill
Running Total +18.99
Hafnarfjordur Won 3-0 last night and we hit a new profit high.
Today is pretty quiet and we have just the one bet. I’ll be back online by 11.00am Wednesday morning.
Germany Regionalliga Sudwest
Elversberg v Bayern Alzenau
1 pt win Elversberg at 7/10 B365 VC
Running Total +19.39
A very easy 6-1 win for Elversberg last night adds nicely to the profit.
Very quiet this morning and I will update at 2.30pm.
Running Total +20.09
Internationals this week are seriously impacting on the opportunities available and again we only have the one match today. Next update by 11.00am in the morning.
Sweden Division 2
Motala AIF v Vimmerby IF K.O.6.30pm
1 pt win Motala at 1/2 Bet Victor BWin
Running Total +20.09
Motala were disappointing last night and we’ll look to recover the loss quickly.
One game now and an update at 5.00pm.
Russia Division 1
Neftekhimik v Khimki K.O. 2.00pm
3 pts win Neftekhimik at 1/2 B365 Tote BFred VC Lads
Running Total +19.09
Not the ideal moment for Khimki to get their first success of the season but these things happen.
However, we move on and we have a chance to recover some of todays loss with a match this evening.
Iceland Division 1
Thor v Fjolnir K.O. 7.00pm
5 pts win Thor at 5/11 188Bet
One goal was all it needed for Thor to win last night and to put us back on the right path. There is absolutely nothing today with the fixture list both decimated and dominated by the World Cup qualifying games.
Tomorrow looks much more promising. I’ll be back online by 11.00am in the morning.
Running Total +18.36
Not at all easy today and nothing till the English matches at 3.00pm. There will be an update at 5.15pm.
England League 1
Swindon v Leyton Orient
3 pts win Swindon at 4/7 Pinnacle
Running Total +18.36
Swindon did us no favours this afternoon so we move on.
Poland Division 1
Cracovia Krakow v Lodzki K.O. 6.00pm
5 pts win Cracovia at 4/7 B365 SJames WHill
Running Total +15.36
Cracovia made hard work of it, throwing away a 2-0 lead but eventually triumphed 4-2 for a successful result.
First match today is as follows and then there is an update at 4.30pm.
Denmark Division 2 East
FC Helsingor v Lolland-FA K.O. 12.00pm
3 pts win Helsingor at 4/6 B365
Running Total +18.22
Hello Karl.My husband and I have been reading the tips being given by all of you and i think you all are very clever. My husband reads the Betting Rant and he says that he wished he could be given a chance to give out tips. I gave him a tip. Don’t bother!! He is not as good as all of you.
As we like to have a little flutter now and again, we have been following you all and i don’t wish to complain, well actually i do,i’m a woman, but there is too little time to get on your tips from when you give them to when the game starts.We just missed out on the tip a couple of days ago, then noticed you gave only 15 minutes notice. Yesterday, only 1 hour notice. I don’t understand the point of writing a tip before anyone has the time to do it.
We prefer mousecliff and ellandrd because they give their tips normally the day before.This gives my husband time to look at the tips and decide whether to do them or not rather than do them for the sake of it.
I hope i have not upset you as this is only meant to be a constructive comment and not a criticism.
Take care, love snowflake.
Helsingor were easy winners this afternoon and helped us reach a new profit high.
We have one more match today which is late tonight.
Brazil Campeonato
Atletico MG v Palmeiras K.O. 10.30pm
1 pt win Atletico at 11/17 BWin
Running Total +20.22
Hi Snowflake.
I take this as a serious business and it is important to factor in all possibilities before giving out a selection. With that in mind I ALWAYS state the time of any update and give the people reading this plenty of time to get the bet on if they so wish.
In truth I think you sum it up yourself when you say your husband needs time to decide whether to do a tip or not. What is the point in following a tipster then deciding to make your own mind up as to whether to bet or not?
You would not believe the number of people I know who have done this and then moaned when deciding to avoid a selection and it comes in at a big price.
Anyway, that’s my view and no offence meant at all. Keep following the selections and watch me add to the profits. (Now there’s a brave statement.)
Atletico MG won 3-0 last night and that ended a decent week. I’ll do the figures and post them later.
Meanwhile, we have one early match and an update at 3.15pm.
Russia Division 1
Tom Tomsk v Yenisey K.O. 1.00pm
1 pt win Tom Tomsk at 4/7 BFred WHill
Running Total +20.87
Great reply to a totally useless post from Snowflake. I have found you to be excellent with letting people know in advance of any possible bets and then saying when you will be next online with an update.
Keep up the good work and ignore these less than useful ‘constructive comments’
Hi Karl.(And robbiek23!!) No offence taken.I’m sure you do take this business seriously. I expect all the other tipsters do too. I,m afraid you have totally mis-understood the point i was making about my husband deciding on what bets to place or not. We look at ALL the tips being given by ALL the tipsters and then decide on the 4 or 5 tips we consider that have the best chance of winning and also the odds being offered for those particular bets.I’m afraid we cannot afford nor would want to bet on every single tip given.As for following a particular tipster,we would rather look at all the tips being offered by all the tipsters,not just yours.My previous message to you was not a criticism but an observation from an outsider looking in.Please don’t take it personally.I do hope you can add to your profits as you appear to be a genuine and sincere person.However we will continue to look at all the tipsters and their bets.But sweetheart, please consider Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.Best of luck for the future with your tips. Take care. Snowflake.X
Snowflake
I have been in this game for about 12 years now and if I have learned one thing it is to decide on just a few tipsters and follow all their bets. By looking at advice from many tipsters and choosing just a few of your own, you are more than likely to “pick” the wrong ones and then become disheartened if you lose out.
Personally, I simply do not look at those tipsters whom I have chosen not to follow. If they make money, all well and good but it matters not to me. As long as the tipsters I follow are in profit then that is all that matters.
You must do your own thing but I can almost guarantee that your current method will only lead to worry and stress neither of which anyone wants. It is also likely to lead to a feeling of “whatever I do is wrong”. Believe me. I have been there.
Happy hunting and good luck in whatever you choose.
Rob
Hello Snowflake
I don’t think you would last long in hell if you are a “true” Snowflake
However if you are too late for a bet, you have to accept that. I have missed one or two due to lateness, but then you can always “bet in play”, although from what you have said this probably would not suit your husband’s style.
I do agree with Rob though, that you find two or three , or even just one tipster and follow them religously. If they lose their “mojo” you have to weigh that against your past winnings.
In the interim Karl you keep doing what you are doing and don’t get sidetracked into petty banter.
Roger
Tom Tomsk did the business nicely for us winning 2-0.
Up to date statistics till the end of yesterday are:
Week 6 26 points staked returned 30.09 ROI 15.73
Total 165 points staked returned 185.96 ROI 12.7
Win Percentage 40 winners from 65 bets = 61.5%
On to our next match now with a final update at 7.30pm
Norway Division 2
Brann v Nest Sotra
1 pt win Brann at 9/20 B365 VC
Running Total +21.44
I doubt if we’ll ever again get involved in a match like the one this evening. Brann were 2-0 down after three minutes, levelled with two goals just before half time and then went 3-2 up early in the 2nd half. Nest Sotra then scored two more to lead 4-3 only for Brann to score twice in the last five minutes to win 5-4 and we collect our profits. Phew!!
We have one more game tonight as follows and then I’ll be back online by 11.00am.
Irish Premier Division
Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians K.O. 8.00pm
1 pt win Shamrock at 8/13 Pinnacle
Running Total +21.89
Karl have you thought of laying the draw in these matches as well? Just wondered if the odds @2.0 might be a better proposition in some cases with all your winners (accepting the increased liability)?
Funnily enough I happened to have laid the draw in this exact match @3 before reading this (serendipity?) but then of course Bohemians score first and so draw odds don’t move but now Shamrock are at odds of 4.1 – are they an even better bet now? Think I’m going to have a small saver on Shamrock at these odds+hope they score 2 goals to win so my Lay the draw bet comes in too!! Yes I can dream…anyway I like the look of your system (simple always best I think) so I look forward to your future selections.
Good luck.
Hi great tips and staking plan .Could you tell me your longest loosing run and to the guy suggesting laying the draw,another way would be laying the HT draw and cover on the 1-1 2-2 in the half time correct score market a goal in the first half and you are in a great position and still have the original win bet,just food for thought;
Good luck
Sorry mikest just noticed it was you on the subject of laying the draw,try it its a great strategies on its own but with the original tips i am sure the strike rate would be quite high
Good luck
Evening Guys, Hi Karl,
I discovered you Bank Holiday week-end and have been following since then;
I have enjoyed it.
I also admire your confidence in assertion to ‘Snowflake’.
I like the way you have thought through the staking plan to effectively recover the losses rapidly when they occur.
I have never been very confident or successful with win bets on match results, prefer to stick to bets with only two possible outcomes but you are slowly convincing me that with sound selections and effective loss recovery this can work.
I am able to get on most of your selections but miss the occasional one, don’t mind the losers, like Shamrock.
Are there many Norwegian games as exciting as Bran 2 v Nest Sotra tonight?
I was following the score line from 40 to 65 minutes, what a roller coaster! Glad that I kept faith with your judgement and did not lay off, not easy when Bran have been drawing at home and winning away…
You are doing great, please keep it up.
Best regards
M.
Hi Karl,
Just an aside, reflecting on Mikest comment about laying the draw in your selected matches; I am finding it both tedious and difficult to find even the final scores for some of your earlier selections, let alone the HT scores.
I am probably not looking in the best places, given that you are selecting some teams and leagues I had never heard of until now. I wondered whether you might keep at least the FT scores for your records?
If you do, a back-test might be informative, maybe this is something you have looked at already? I may be able to contribute some time if that helps.
Best regards
M.
Addick- I get all the info I need to trade Football(and a whole lot I don’t!) using the sites below:
http://www.nowgoal.com/ (all countries etc.)
http://uk.soccerway.com (UK only)
http://www.betshoot.com (Odds+stats, worldwide)
http://www.betexplorer.com/ 9football stats+other sports too, worldwide)
http://www.rsssf.com/histdom.html (UK stats etc. -looks very comprehensive)
http://www.scibet.com/ (lots of leagues but I especially like the interface, easy on the eyes).
Have a look and see if they have what you need, if not there’s loads more out there I’ve found through various forums etc., happy to post more if required/anyone’s interested(and Matt doesn’t mind of course).
First link has details of live,upcoming and completed matches with OU odds etc.(although no idea if they are correct but have worked fine for my purposes and look comprehensive too) which has been great for overs/unders, correct scores and Lay the Draw bets (3 out of 3 successful this evening using them, about to get into one more whilst watching the Tennis come on Murray!).
Good luck to all and I’ll try to be as active as possible here, I’m trading full-time across most sports and have done lots of research (which I know is never-ending!) so happy to share all and any information with everyone here if I have anything deemed helpful.
Cheers,
Mike.
P.S. Matt – is there a way to subscribe to these pages so we now when they’ve been updated? Just I’m lazy…I mean very busy!
Hi just to let u no flashscores is a good service to find results from most football leagues world wide
Hi Mikest,
No problem with links as long as they’re useful and not spammy. All posts with links in do get sent for moderation however, so there may be a delay in them going up on the site every now and again.
As for subscribing to posts, it’s a good idea. I’m not sure if we have that feature available to us but I’ll find out. And if not, we are looking at upgrading the website in the near future as it’s far too basic at present, so hopefully we’ll be able to implement the subscription option then, if not before.
Matt
Wow guys. Weeks of little comment and then I get hit with all this. I hope the following will cover all the points raised.
I hadn’t thought of laying the draw but it’s something worth looking into. I’ll trawl back through my results although I won’t have any prices to look at but it will give me an idea of strike rate which is a start. I do though want to keep this simple and I am very happy with the way I operate. However, if there’s more to be made…….
The longest losing run I have ever had (now here’s tempting fate) is four and the longest winning run is sixteen.
All results can be found on the flashscores web site. I’ll post that seperately so this message doesn’t get delayed.
Thanks for all the input. Daily message to follow.
Karl
Results can be obtained via http://www.flashscores.co.uk
Karl
Shamrock Rovers turned in a miserable performance last night and we lost 1 point.
Today is very quiet for us and we have just the one game that kicks off extremely late. Next message by 11.00am tomorrow.
Brazil Serie B
Vitoria BA v Boa
3 pts win Vitoria at 5/11 Pinnacle
Running Total +20.89
Morning Guys!
@Karl,
Sorry you have been feeling neglected over recent weeks, clearly we were all following quietly in the background!
I do feel that if you can check back on FT scores for your past selections it may give an adequate sample to show frequency of results occurring amongst your selections; provided you have more than 100 results that should be reliable and you have had 65 since you started this blog.
@Mikest,
Wow!
Many thanks for those links, the only one of those that I knew was Flashscores. All I need now is a quiet afternoon with all the horse racing abandoned to get familiar with the sites..
Good luck to all today.
M.
Vitoria Won 3-2 last night and that was our only bet yesterday.
Today, we start this afternoon and as there is little in the market at the moment I will update at 1.00pm for a 2.00pm kick off.
Running Total +22.25 pts
There is just no money available for the match I was looking at so we’ll go to later in the afternoon with an update at 6.15pm
Ukraine Persha Liga
Oleksandria v FK Sumy K.O. 4.00pm
1 pt win Oleksandria at 7/10 B365
Running Total +22.25 pts
Oleksandria Won 2-0 this evening and as it happens that is the only bet of the day. I’ll be back online by 11.00am in the morning.
Running Total +22.95
It’s a very quiet day today with few fixtures and we have just the one match. as follows:
Israel Premier Division
Ashdod SC v Beitar Jerusalem K.O. 6.00pm
1 pt win Ashdod at 8/9 Pinnacle
Running Total +22.95
Hi Karl,
I have read all the posts from the start and it looks good, so I want to begin following your tips. I bet on yesterday’s match (and won – thanks!) and have placed a bet on todays. However, I am wondering how much longer you will be posting your tips for free on this site? I really want to get into this as a long term investment strategy, so feel a bit reluctant to start betting with highish stakes if the tips are going to stop very soon. Do you know how long this will be continuing for? And also, at what point your system will become a subscription only service?
Many thanks,
Rowena
Rowena – Karl’s ‘Progressive Football Plan’ is competing in the ‘T Factor” competition being run within this site. You’ll find the original details here:
http://www.bettingrant.co.uk/the-t-factor-is-go-4728#comments
Thanks Dceast. Yep, Rowena, Karl will stay on this site for as long as he stays in the competition, so if his service is your favourite, make sure you vote for him when I send out the email next week!
The competition runs untill Christmas at which point the winner will get his own subscription service, as may some of the runners up (depending on results and reader demand).
Matt
Ashdod was a good result for us as they won 2-1 last night.
Today should be a bit busier and we start with an 11.00am kick off and an update at 1.15pm
Japan J2 League
Ventforet Kofu v Fagiano Okayama K.O. 11.00am
1 pt win Ventforet Kofu at 13/19 Pinnacle
Running Total +23.84 pts
Only 1-0 but that will do and let’s hope we can add to that with our next bet.
Update at 7.30pm
Finland Kakkonen East
Gnistan v FC Kiffen K.O. 4.30
1 pt win Gnistan at 4/7 B365
Running Total +24.52 pts
Gnistan duly did the business for us winning 3-1
That is it for today. I’ll be online by 10.30am in the morning for the start of what I am sure will be the usual busy weekend.
Running Total +25.09 pts
I have just joined and have now won 4 times in a row… Is this too good to be true?! Am amazed! Thank you so much!
Hi Karl, I have been following your selections since the 11th and would just like to say thank you for the excellent tips you’ve provided. I like the use of the recovery staking coupled with sound selections that you apply, good luck with the competition and thanks again, STM
@Rowena,
As I am sure you know, if something seems too good to be true then sadly it usually is…
However, Karl might be the one to break the mould; based upon my observation and involvement he has developed a brilliant system. There will be losers but he has addressed this with a well conceived and tailored staking plan that works well with his high strike rate.
This is delivering what we all want – consistency. Just don’t get carried away with your staking, 5% of your bank per point should work fine, we have not gone above 8 points yet on loss recovery.
If you like consistent have a look at Dean JH on here, he is currently on a ‘winning’ run of 25!
@Karl,
Hope I haven’t jinxed your next selection by ‘bigging you up’- but you are doing brilliantly. Unless you have a meltdown (unlikely) I would expect to join your subscription service, should you offer one. My only concerns at present are the u/k cost and membership levels. The liquidity on some selections, on BF would not need many backers to move the price..
Many thanks for your continuing professionalism.
M.
Hi folks. Thanks for the comments. So far we’ve had a good week and I hope that will continue today. Regarding the liquidity on Betfair this is something that I am well aware of and this is why I frequently use bookmakers instead. If you check you will see also that the bets have been well spread around different bookmakers which is also useful as it reduces the risk of being closed down. Having said that (and it’s early days) should this actually become a subscription service then there is no doubt there will have to be a cap on membership to protect the prices.
Good luck to everyone today.
Karl
Right then, here we go. First match for today with an update at 2.15pm
Germany Bundesliga 2
Eintracht Braunschweig v Jahn Regensburg K.O. 12.00pm
1 pt win Braunschweig at 1/2 W Hill
Running Total +25.09
Very interesting Karl.
I’m with you from today.
Good luck!
I’ve been with you for about a week now, I love it so far and it will definatley be getting my vote,
Great service, keep it up.
Braunschweig duly won if only by one goal but that will do.
The next update will be at 5.15pm
Meanwhile our next match is as follows:
England League 1
Sheffield United v Bury
1 pt win Sheffield at 8/15 Tote BFred VC BlSq SJ Lads
Running Total +25.59
- well done Karl…we’re on a nice run.
I’ve been with you from the start because your plan exactly fitted my betting ethos…i.e. footie only, short price, high strike rate, modest yet consistant returns.
I’m not a big fan of getting involved in early season games,so, fingers crossed for Sheffield Utd this afternoon.
Bury pinched a point at Sheffield United and that was our first setback for a while.
We move on now with an update at 7.30pm
Austria Bundesliga
Sturm Graz v Wacker Innsbruck K.O. 5.30pm
3 pts win Sturm Graz at 4/7 Blue Square 888Sport
Running Total +24.59
A comfortable 3-0 win for Sturm Graz and we move on with the last match today. I’ll be online by 11.00am tomorrow.
Brazil Serie A
Fluminense v Atletico GO K.O. 22.30
1 pt win Fluminesne at 17/35 32Red
Running Total +26.3 pts
Fluminense lost last night so we move up the stake and go to Germany. There will be an update at 2.45pm
Germany Bundesliga 2
Kaiserslautern v MSV Duisburg K.O. 12.30pm
3 pts win Kaiserslautern at 1/2 Coral Pinnacle
Running Total +25.3 pts
An 81st minute goal was enough to give Kaiserslautern a 2-1 win this lunchtime and get us back on track and another new profit high. Next match as follows and an update at 5.30pm
Hungary OTB Bank Liga
Gyori v Pecsi Mecsek K.O. 3.30pm
1 pt win Gyori at 8/13 Stan James
Running Total +26.8
Another 1-0 win for us and they all add up.
I think we’ll call it a day after that. I was interested in the match in Croatia between Slaven Belupo and Rijeka but the price is too high, suggesting the bookies might know something I don’t.
It’s been a good week with a profit of 6.55 pts. I’ll do the stats and post them later.
I’ll be back in the morning at 11.00am
Running Total +27.42 pts
Thank you Karl. I started this 5 days ago and am 90.00 in profit. It is so easy and fun to follow. Am extremely happy.
End of week 7 then and a decent one as well. Figures are:
Week 7 20 points staked return 26.55 32.75 ROI
Total 185 points staked return 212.51 14.87 ROI
Win Percentage 51/79 64.50%
Running Total +27.42 pts
Karl,
A big ‘Well Done!’
I have left the Horses alone this weekend and thoroughly enjoyed your selections. Made some extra by playing the >/2.5 but comfortably ahead.
Many thanks.
M.
Most of last post is missing
It’a a pleasure Addick. Let’s hope for another good week.
Karl
The first match today is as follows and there will be an update at 5.30pm
Russia Division 1
Ural v Khimki K.O. 3.00pm
1 pt win Ural at 2/5 Bet365 188Bet
Running Total +27.42
So then, a good start to the week as Ural won 1-0.
We have just one more match today and then I’ll update by 11.00am in the morning.
Sweden Superettan
Halmstads v Ljungskile K.O. 6.20 pm
1 pt win Halmstads at 8/15 Coral
Running Total +27.82
Impressive stuff. You’re at the stage now where it becomes easier to sustain.
Well done
Thanks BellaMowgli and I appreciate the comment. I hope that people realise that the progress here is steady and consistent – every week a winning one so far.
Hey Karl.. good work I must say. Been following u since last Thursday.. few losers the weekend but was recovered with your staking plan. I’m on £20 per point so a nice…steady profit. Let’s hope it continues.
Well done again Karl. I have been following you for some time and you are certainly a bit more predictable than the gee gees! I hope you continue to do well in the competition and you will get my vote as and when Matt send out the polling slips.
Roger
Good morning Karl,
I am continuing to look for ways of making your admirably consistent selections more profitable. Recent results suggest that ‘Top plays bottom’ matches and high scoring teams does not necessarily = goals, so what else is there?
I don’t know how far in advance of posting you complete your research.
If this is all done before the first post and you simply await result so you can advise stake with the next selection maybe there is a missed opportunity?
I don’t know how far in advance of posting you complete your research.
If this is all done before the first post and you simply await result so you can advise stake with the next selection maybe there is a
If you posted all selections for the day before the 1st KO it would enable doubles and trebles for those that wished to explore this route. For those wishing to stick to singles your could still post advised stakes following each result. Personally I think anyone on here can work out the next stake following a loss from your clear instructions.
Is this feasible for you?
Best Regards
M.
I have no idea why (most of) the 2nd paragraph is repeated, it wasn’t before I pressed submit….
Thanks for all the comments. Regarding advising all matches at once the problem is that not all bookmakers price up all the games early and there is very little liquidity on Betfair. However I will look at this and see if it is feasible.
Thanks for all the support.
Karl
Hi Karl, in addition to the previous post, I have become an avid follower but I am also a night worker and find my sleep pattern interupted waiting for next selection, for me it would be far more advantageous to get all of your selections at once, absolutely love the service and will keek on following regardless. Keep up the good work.
Glenn
First match today as follows with an update at 4.15pm. Another success yesterday evening with Halmstads winning 1-0
Ukrainian Persha Liga
Zirka Kirovohrad v Naftovik Okhtirka K.O. 2.00pm
1 pt win Zirka at 8/11 B365
Running Total +28.35 pts
@glenn7,
Thanks for making me laugh!
I think that I can recognise that.
It made me realise that I am doing more than looking forward to the next post with eager anticipation. Having missed the KO following one post and got on ‘in play’ I then resorted to setting a timer so as not to miss the next one. Don’t know how I would cope if I was working nights.
Thinking about it, as Karl is finding selections from around the world, provided he can find prices early enough (to allow him to sleep) he could offer a ‘daytime’ and ‘night time’ (UK time) service thus offering a service to day and night workers across the globe…..
Hi Karl and Hi to everyone on the forum.
I need a help.
I have a small betting bank from EUR 600.00 (EUR 300.00 on Betfair and EUR 300.00 on Bet365) but that are more than enough for the standard in my country and for my monthly salary.
I start to follow you on 16.09.2012 with match: Gyori v Pecsi Mecsek
I follow the recommendation from Matt Houghton from the start of the forum for starting bank of 150 points. That’s EUR 4.00 for 1 point for me.
I want to ask, can I increase my stake per point for example to 6, 7, or maybe 10 EUR with my betting bank of EUR 600.00? Or like Addick says: “Just don’t get carried away with your staking, 5% of your bank per point should work fine.”, but I think that is too risky.
Good luck and keep up the good work.
P.S. My vote goes for you normally.
A starting bank of 150 euros is more than adequate and I would suggest you start at 10 euros a point, so there is no problem at all in increasing your stake. Build your stakes up slowly from there.
Thank you Karl,
I’ll increase my stake from a start of the next sequence.
Thank you again and good luck!
How do I vote please.
Hi glenn7,
The vote hasn’t opened yet. It will do so on Thursday and I’ll send out full instructions/rules etc in a Betting Rant email then.
Matt
Zirka Won 1-0 this afternoon (our 4th successive win at that score)and we move on to our final match for today with an update as usual at 11.00am in the morning.
England Championship
Blackburn Rovers v Barnsley K.O. 7.45pm
1 pt win Blackburn at 1/2 Bodog
Running Total +29.08 pts
Yet another win…well done. I’ve been adding my own little twist to your staking plan. I bet to your recommendation…ie 1pt win… but if the score is 0-0 at halftime.. I lay the 0-0 draw. Usually the average odds are around 4.0-5.0… take last game for instance… I layed 0-0 draw at halftime to £100 liability.. when any team scored I would get £39 profit which covers my 1pt stake for the win (£20 per point)…but as the team I backed was the team who won…I got a nice earner. It also eliminates me having to go up the scale to 3pts if your recommendation lost… but if it was 0-0… I would b £120 down…which is 6 pts.. then I would go up the scale to 3pts…as you suggest.. I don’t think any of your bets have been 0-0 tho.
When are you going to stop giving your free bets out?. You get my vote… and my subscription…when you win the competition
Thanks jatthekat. We’ll just wait till this is all over before we take it any further. You can keep on enjoying the tips for free so long as I don’t get voted off this week.
Well you’ve got my vote for sure.
Win again
))
cheers Karlos, they left it late but another winner thankyou.
They left it late but Blackburn won 2-1 for us last night. So we move on and our first match is as follows with an update at 5.30pm
Poland Liga 1
Flota Swinoujscie v Katowice K.O.3.30pm
1 pt win Flota at 4/7 Bet Victor
Running Total +29.58
Flota came from a goal down to win 3-1 and keep our little current run going. That also takes us over the 30 point profit mark.
Just one more match today and the usual 11.00am update in the morning.
Coumbia Primera B
Alianza Petrolera v Valledupar K.O. 9.00pm
1 pt win Alianza at 7/10 Sportinghbet
Running Total +30.15
Sorry, seem to have typing trouble. It is of course in Columbia and the bet with Sportingbet.
Alianza Won 2-0 last night. Today there is just one match for us so the next update will be 11.00am in the morning.
Iceland Urvalsdield
Hafnarfjordur v IA Akranes K.O. 6.00pm
1 pt win Hafnarfjordur at 2/5 Sportingbet BetVictor WHill
Running Total +30.85 pts
Karl, your very very good
Hey Karl, love yr tips, been following you for just over a week, and I voted for you earlier today. Close one tonight, but keep up the good work.
Cheers,
Graeme
Yes,yes,yes!
My vote is number 24. The second contestant has only 7.
Good luck!
You got my vote, love the system, simple and easy to follow. Keep it up and regardless of the competition outcome I’m sure myself and many others would gladly subscribe.
Waiting with anticipation for your next tip.
Thanks Glenn.
Voted. Keep it up pal – you’re doing well
Well firstly, thanks for all the kind comments. Recent results have been good but that’s all in the past and you are only as good as your next result so let’s hope we can continue the run with the following and an update to follow at 7.00pm
Finland Kakkonen West
Ilves v P-Iirot K.O. 4.30pm
1 pt win Ilves at 11/17 188Bet
Running Total +31.25
You’ve got my vote. Loving this system please keep it up
Got my vote too Karl! Would be more than happy to subscribe to your service, regardless of vote result. Keep up the good work!
For once we weren’t sweating on a 1-0 lead as Ilves won comfortably, 5-2.
We have one more match tonight and then I’ll be back online at 11.00am in the morning.
England Championship
Blackburn Rovers v Middlesbrough K.O. 7.45pm
1 pt win Blackburn at 16/19 188Bet
Running Total +31.90
you got another vote1 mine. just found and read blog this
week, good stuff and a nice steady earner with a low
liability.
After ten consecutive successes it was left to Blackburn Rovers to spoil the run. They lost 2-1.
Onwards and upwards as they say with our first bet and another message at 3.15pm
Finland Kakkonen North
PS Kemi v TP-47 K.O. 1.00pm
3 pts win PS Kemi at 7/10 BetVictor
Running Total +30.9 pts
Morning Karl,
Another set-back with English clubs last night!
If my counting is correct that is 50% of English selections have lost (57% if you include Shammrock in ‘local’). Annecdotally this appears to compare poorly with your excellent record worldwide. Is it too early in the season, insufficient form info. or are they just unreliable?
Fortunately (with the exception of the Sheffield match where they just reused to score after 12 minutes) I have been able to ‘Get out of jail’ by laying the correct score market (twice last night, though it didn’t endear me to CLB) to recover my stake or where the original bet has also come in, make handsome profit. Sadly that is not an option today as Betfair are only offering ‘Match Odds’ and not ‘in play’.
Looking forward to more selections over the weekend.
M.
That should read ‘refused’.
Hi Addick. Yes I am aware of this but I don’t think there’s any reason for it. These results will happen sometimes. Will obviously keep my eye on it though.
I’m looking for the scores for PS Kemi v TP-47 K.O. 1.00pm, can’t find them anywhere, is there an issue with this game
try
http://www.flashscore.com/
that’s where i found it eventually. 1-1 as i write…
Thanks
lost 1-2 only joined this week and a bit of a mixed bag so far !!
PaulY
Funny isn’t it how you can get so many winning bets in a row and then the next two lose. Kemi lost 2-1. On to our next match then with an update at 8.00pm
Argentina Primera B Nacional
Gimnasia La Plata v Patronato K.O. 6.00pm
5 pts win Gimnasia at 9/11 Pinnacle
Running Total +27.9 pts
pyoung30 Says:
September 22nd, 2012 at 3:17 pm
lost 1-2 only joined this week and a bit of a mixed bag so far !!
Mate are you sure this is for you, if you joined the selections this week you would have had only 2 losers, Gimnasia have just pulled that back!
Thanks Karlos.
Winning every single time would be impossible. We have to be prepared for the odd loss. Have faith pyoung30 – this is by far the best money making system I have ever come across and believe me, I have tried many!
Thanks again Karl – looking forward to the next tip.
pyoung30 the same happened to me several weeks ago. Since then loadsa winners.
If you cvan’t stand the heat etc!
keep it going Karlos
Roger
Sorry guys didn’t mean my last reply to sound bad, I looked through your previous results and saw you was doing Karlos well you must of been to be 2nd in table! only joined the back end of the week hence why I said I had a mix bag well done on pulling back the 5 pointer today ! I know we wont win all the time and am prepared for the loss /losses just wish the away teams wouldnt keep scoring first
I know, it is so nerve wracking. Am constantly checking the live scores on my phone – wish I had the patience just to wait and look at the end result, but I can’t help myself! Is there going to be another update tonight Karl?
- missed the start of the Gimnasia game this evening, so modified my stake & backed them ‘in play’ just after half time…at 6′s.
Now there’s some faith for you
Gimnasia Won 3-1 and that takes us back to 1 point on the staking plan.
Nothing further today and I’ll be back online by 11.00am tomorrow.
Running Total +31.99
Seemed to of lost some of message from last post . Roger I can take the heat lol
Karlos your results are superb keep up the good work.
Regards
Paul Y
Just realised karl i call you karlos.
No offence meant, just my pet name for you:)
Roger
@Karl,
Well done.
@pyoung30
If you are on the home team the away team scoring first is the best development! The price for the home team goes up so you can top up your bet at a higher price. It also puts pressure on the home team so you can profit by laying the current score.
@Rowena
Does the anxiety level increase proportionate to the stake?
Bookies!
Don’t know how I am supposed to raise stakes to 3 or 5 points!
Resurrected my dormant account with ‘Sportingbet’ and backed 2 of Karl’s selections in last week, winning just £75.0. Tried again this morning and limited to £25.0 stake! Spread your bet between several bookies if you can; any suggestions welcome.
Looking forward to tomorrow’s selections.
M.
It’s been another good week, Karl.
Keep it up. Cheers!
Addick the price goes up for the home team if the away team scores,but then the home team has to score twice doesn’t always happen re Blackburn and PS Kemi or is that just me being negative ? Totally agree with laying the score when the home team are a goal down never even crossed my mind so thanks for that do you do both yourself if these scenarios happen re back the home team more when there a goal down ? And lay the score ? Roger I have started calling Karl Karlos cause you did,he could now be our quality Spanish tipster! Lol
Regards
Paul Y
Ps Addick I always use Betfair as I often got restricted by bookies you never get restricted on Betfair as its a market and 8/10 times you get a better price ! Hope this helps
Paul Y
Hi Paul Y.
I don’t always back the home team when they go a goal down, depends how confident I feel in them. However they are likely to try and maybe leave themselves exposed to a counterattack. If you lay the current score you don’t care who scores if you recover your stake. If original bet wins you make a tidy profit.
Kemi match was not ‘In play’ so no way to get out; I will swerve such selections in future. As I said to Karl earlier burnt fingers on Sheffield match but all other current score lays successful so far but I am still a novice trader.
The problem with Betfair is often the lack of liquidity; there are so many matches available worldwide and only so much money to go around. If you look at the volumes traded on some matches you will see the problem. It is particularly bad if you want to place a bet a couple of hours before K.O. and unlike the horses you cannot leave it @ SP or use a ‘Bot’.
I really don’t want to start trying to place by internet phone, getting a connection, interfering with business and social life….
Good luck.
M.
I will add some comment to the earlier messages in half an hour but first let’s get our day going. There will be an update at 2.15pm
Denmark Division 1
Lyngby v Fredericia K.O. 12.00pm
1 pt win Lyngby at 11/14 Pinnacle
Running Total +31.99 pts
Some interesting comments over the last few days and clearly people have their own ideas regarding how they bet. Good luck to them. I am just carrying on as I always have done. No matter what anyone does the bottom line is that just backing the selections as advised will consistently make profits on a steady basis. There will be losing bets, it’s inevitable but the staking should take care of those.
It’s difficult trying to avoid looking at the score when the match is in progress and I do it all the time. When the away team scores it always gets the adrenalin going (actually it does whatever the score)
Regarding bookmakers then it has to be said that many of them are a disgrace. In theory they are supposed to make a profit by balancing the odds in their favour across all bets. In fact they increase those profits by refusing to take bets from clients who win. I have often wondered about the legality of this and if I had a lot of money I would love to challenge them in the courts. From a personal point of view I don’t even bother with Bet365 and William Hill because I get offered derisory amounts.
Keep all the emails coming as they make most interesting reading.
Just because its Sunday!
Something for all you score watchers.
If you have your PC or equivalent running with Flashscores on, click on the match you want to follow. It opens another window. The match name and score will then show in the tab. This enables you to get on with other stuff whilst monitoring the score conveniently.
If you are really desperate you can monitor with audible alarm on Betfair Livescores if you just untick all the other matches…
Nearly half time, still 0:0 Lyngby are now up to 2.32 50% better value than at KO. Time ti top up if you are confident.
Good Luck.
M.
Hooray!
Lyngby take the lead after 66 minutes,
hope you topped up.
M.
After taking the lead Lyngby conceded two goals in three minutes, so that was the final score.
Next match as follows and a further update at 5.15pm
Switzerland Challenge league
Aarau v Biel-Bienne K.O. 3.00pm
3 pts win Aarau at 4/7 Coral
A very comfortable win for Aarau with a final 4-1 scoreline.
One last match today and then I’ll be back online by 11.00am in the morning.
Denmark Superliga
Copenhagen v Silkeborg K.O. 6.00pm
1 pt win Copenhagen at 3/7 188Bet
Running Total +32.7 pts
Another good week for us and the figures are now as follows:
Week 8 22 points staked return 27.71 25.95 ROI
Total 207 points staked return 240.22 16.05 ROI
Win Percentage 62/93 66.66%
Running Total +33.13 pts
Copenhagen Won 5-0 and the result was never in doubt.
Difficult to find any qualifying games today but we start this evening with an update at 8.00pm At the moment it looks like there will be a game late tonight.
Danish Superliga
AAB v Esbjerg K.O. 6.00pm
1 pt win AAB at 8/11 Stan James
Running Total +33.13 pts
Hi Karl,
Congratulation on a fantastic set of results just as described a steady week on week profit!!
Now i have a quick question what is the Maximum you would stake per point? i know you have a starting bank, but if you did have a considerable amount of money to put in your betting bank would there be a limit per point or is the sky the limit? (My major concern would be bookies not accepting the larger bets)
Regards
Paul Y
Hi Paul
The maximum bet would be 20 points. That is the staking plan I devised though I have to tell you I have never got remotely near that. If you decide the number of points you would like your maximum to be (and you definitely need 8) then I’ll advise you accordingly how to proceed.
Hi Karl,
Thanks for reply. Sorry i think you mis-understood what my questions was, my fault i try and explain in a better context.
Basically i know your staking plan and think its fab, you have worked it out to always be in profit providing the favourite wins in seven attempts.
My point is is there a maximum amount in £’s that you would stake per point? (i know you advise a 150 point bank) but if i had access to up my account by quite a few thousand (the bookies refusing to take the bet would be my main concern).
Hope ive explained my question better and all feed back is warmly welcome
Regards
Paul Y
Surely the answer to the question is simply down to the maths and, of course, the maximum size of bet a bookie will accept.
If you have a betting bank of £1000 split into a 100 point bank – you would bet @ £10 per point. If your betting bank was £10’000 you would bet @ £100 per point, and so on.
If you live on benefits £10 per point is probably a lot of money, but if you’re a Premier League footballer, £100 per point is a drop in the ocean!
It’s all relative to your personal circumstances.
Cheers
Mark.
Absolutley just thought id ask the question as i wouldnt want to get caught out by not being able to place a bet with bookies and wanted Karls opinion on this.
Regards
Paul Y
Hi Paul,
Different bookies vary when it comes to the levels that they won’t accept bets (Sporting Bet are notoriously bad) but you should always have Betfair as a fall back option so I wouldn’t be overly worried about stake size.
My personal thoughts (and Karl obviously knows his system better than I do) is that, for this staking plan, £100 a point would probably be close to the limit with a number of bookies when it comes to bets of five points or more. That’s the level where you’d need to start ‘shopping around’ after a little while anyway.
Matt
Hey Karl,
Can you advise if, and how many, 0-0 results have come up in your selections please?
I like what you are doing, and advising (despite being a competitor), so I have a little idea based on your advice.
Thanks and keep up the good work.
Maybe there could be a little football backing/horse laying package coming out of this comp
Dean
Thank Matt you’ve answered my question
Much appreciated
Paul Y
A couple of responses. Regarding your question about goalless draws Dean there have been 6.
I back to £100 per point. It is I believe the meximum you can sderiously get on and as Matt says when you are on a £500 or £800 bet you do need to spread it around.
AAB found it hard work this evening and lost 2-0.
The next match kicks off at midnight (some bookmakers have it as 23.59)
The next update will be online by 11.00am in the morning.
Paraguay Premier League
Guarani v Sol de America
3 pts win Guarani at 10/11 188Bet
Running Total +32.22pts
Our midnight bet was successful with Guarani winning 3-2 and at a reasonable price as well.
Today there is just one match and I’ll be back online by 11.00am tomorrow.
Germany Regionalliga West
Viktoria Koln v Bochum 11 K.O. 6.00pm
1 pt win Viktoria Koln at 5/11 BWin
Running Total +34.95pts
hi karl, i have just been reading through all the tipsters and yours does what it says on the tin! small amount of bets great strike rate and no fancy plans or lots of bets, thanks alot will be following, will use percentage of the bank stake should grow a bit better..karen
Cheers Karen. Easy does it and your bank will build slowly but surely.
Hi Karl,
I’ve just looked at your results for the first time and they look impressive.Do you intend to start a regular service as I’d be very interested?
Cheers
Hi Omruds
We’ll have to wait and see how the competition develops but that is certainly the aim.
Cheers
Karl
Viktoria Koln lost their 100% record and cost us a point when they surprisingly lost 3-2 last night.
Let’s hope we can bounce straight back with the following match and an update to follow at 3.00pm
Singapore S League
Tampines Rovers v Albirex Nigata K.O. 12.45pm
3 pts win Tampines at 7/10 B365
Running Total +33.95pts
Hi Karlos
Squeaky bum time for me. I missed the winning bet on Guarani so am at 5 points! Hey. I have confidence in you so no worries……………
Rob
Hi Karl
Been following you for a while now (great stuff).I seem to be favoring yourself and Dean on lay bets.I jump in and out of betfair allday and no harm to betfair and mousecliff i always seem to back there losers.I know i could put the bets on and leave them but i like to be on top of my bets.
Keep it up.
Rob,
Seem to miss the updates with winning bets.
Does that mean I have more confidence? I’m on 8pts
Only just started following the tips recently, & only had one winner so far, so if it all goes pear shaped, feel free to blame me Karl!
damn, just got home and the match already started…1 up already…next time!
You and me both Karl! Of course, I sometimes like Pearshaped!!!
Rob
Nooooooooooooooooooooo! 1-1
Karlos
I presume you know that this latest match is between 1st and 3rd in the League and that the away team have only lost 3 times away from home (out of 10 games played). Let’s hope that the home team’s form (8 wins from 10 played with 1 draw) proves the better stat!
Rob
WTF. Our guys take a lead but only for 2 minutes. Now 2-2. I tihnk I may ahve to stop watching!
Especially as my typing skills have gone to pot. Too many smelling pistakes for my liking!!! Ha, ha
Hi Guys,
Nearly half time and still 2:2.
You can get on @ 1.90, much better value than @ K.O.
Have faith!
M.
Who’s pressed the panick button ?
3-2 now
Oops! Another loser. We must expect them I suppose.
I was fortunate in that I laid the bet off when Tampines were 1-0 ahead. Glad I did as I recouped all my losses.
Back to 1 point for me.
We finished on the wrong end of a 4-3 thriller this lunchtime and that after leading three times.
Still, we move on with our next bet and a final update at 6.30pm.
Germany Bundesliga 2
Eintracht Braunschweig v MSV Duisburg K.O. 4.30pm
5 pts win Braunschweig at 8/15 Pinnacle 32Red
Running Total +30.95pts
I’m using your method with both your game choices and my game choices (started mine yesterday), just to see who gets better results.
It seems the match you chose lost (there goes 3 points down the drain). I actually discarded that match earlier when choosing my own game and ended up with a team that won by 3 goals, but since I’m betting on both choices I also lost 3 points. Let’s go for 5 then!
Down the drain? You dont seem to get the basics of a betting system…
As for your selection winning by 3 goals, well thanks for that, glad we now know.
Look out!Handbags are out!
Hi Rob,
Yeah, I’m getting a crash-course in trading too!
So far I have managed to trade out and recover my stakes in all but 2 losing games; recovered the other 2 when original bets won after I had recovered stakes so no harm done.
The midnight K.O. was a challenge though, I backed it and left PC running, got up @ 2.00 to check score…
I am content to avoid losses and forgo the profit missed on a losing game.
I have been steadily increasing my stakes and would rather break even that place (or try to place) larger and larger bets and then find I cannot get a decent bet on with that bookie next time.
M.
I remember those days when I saw 02:00!
These days it is only if the kids keep me awake or I need a wee!!!
Come on Braunschweig.
Rob
Come on Braunschweig indeed! That result elevates me to 11pts on the staking plan. I think there are only 2 stops left after that!
To be fair, it’s summing up my day at the minute – it’s one of *those* days which have to be endured every now & then.
Hehe no I just got wound up seeing the ‘down the drain’ bit
This is investing, ups and downs etc Your bank should take care of all, and so nothing is ‘down the drain’
@howeyt I know there’s ups and downs, hence the next bet being 5 points to help recover from the loss.
I didn’t mention any personal bet I’m doing because I’m no football pro and I don’t want to be blamed when bad results happen… so far I’m lucky with 2.3 points in 5 games, 80% win since yesterday, but that may/will change for better or worse at any moment
For anyone who likes to get better odds:
1st half outcome: E Braunschweig have drawn the first half in 4/6 home matches against bottom-six teams as have Duisburg in 7/11 away matches. E Braunschweig have drawn 4/6 home matches against bottom-six teams.
Taken from Lab Form Black software
Now, Now. Now.
I try not to get involved in little tit for tat’s, between people but i am going to break my rule for this one time!!!!!!!
Firstly, i think Karl is doing a fantastic job…
It is hurtful enough to lose a bet and knowing that other people are following his advice. BUT to have as many successful bets as Karl has had, i see no reason how anyone can question his ability. AND i mean you (johnye_pt)!!!!
Secondly, i fully endorse what howeyt said…If you can’t take the heat, then bugger off out the kitchen..Of course there are ups and downs, the true champions are those who have more ups than they have downs. Anyone who expects to win all the time is seriously deluded. To people who expect tipsters to get it right every time, please give your G.P a call. You need help!!!!!!
Thirdly, if johnye_pt is so b$*!:^y good, then i suggest he start putting his tips on the site and we can all see for ourselves………
Karl, carry on mate..i do admit i have had a little flutter on a couple of your tips!!
There, that is my rant on the Rant…..
Kev..
Is it cheating if we use Matt’s betting suggestions for tonight? I’m pretty sure Carlisle and QPR will help us bank some more
johnye_pt this is Karls thread, please keep it that way.
I’m a bit miffed perhaps someone can shed some light on the matter. I have been doing £20 per point so first game we lost fair enough I understand we’re not going to win every time. Onto next bet which is now 3pts to staking plan £60 at £20 per point and we lost. Onto 3rd selection which has just started as write this now this should be 5pts to staking plan £100 ,but this is my point the third bet is odds of 8/15 so surely I would have to place £150.00 to even break even and get my £80.00 back so the staking plan hasn’t worked on this occasion or is this me not understanding ? Sorry for the long post
Paul Y
Paul Y,
As I read it the staking plan is simplified and designed to approximately restore, without the maths involved. The details of points and when they change to which level are set out at the end of Karl’s introduction, a LONG way back up the page now.
Best regards
M.
Howeyt,
Impressed with stats, just wish I had seen them before I placed such a large stake on selection!
Where is the software available please?
M.
pyoung30, your next bet should this one win will be 3 pts providing the odds are not greater than 1.74, refer to the top of the page
Thanks guys was me having a blonde moment .
Regards
Paul Y
@Addick Id best not put link up but Google will help
Dont know about every one else i was a bag of nervous until Braunschweig just scored twice in last ten minutes, dont know what id be like if we get to 11, 15 and 20 points lets hope it never happens, cause boy i get hot in the kitchen and im the first to admitt it!!!
Paul Y
Why do they do it?
80 minutes with no goals and then 3 goals in 7 minutes!!
Don’t worry, all for our selection.
Thanks Howeyt
I will have a look, guess I was just being lazy.
M
Are we all having a better day now?
pyoung; Stake relative to your bank and there will be no hot kitchens! lol
My sugestion: 1pt = 1% of your betting bank;
Very comfortable and no panic.
Yes having a better day thanks Addick, as you keep saying we must keep the faith in Karlos cause hes results in this competition speak volumes.
Regards
Paul Y
howety @ langelov wish i had a stake relative to my bank, but seeing as i just bought a house im pretty skint at moment! 1pt to 1% would be sensible and thats how i would run this. Wont be long though before i can run this how you guys are!
Thanks for all you advice guys
Paul Y
Well, a better day as far as Karlos is concerned at any rate. Otherwise, the day is littered with NRs & losers. Only Kempton & a couple of COCUP bets to come now.
…but at least I’m not flooded. Feel very sorry for those guys.
Was we due an update at 6.30pm or is Karlos too busy counting all his money ! lol
Wasn’t Karlos coming back around 6.30?
Bet he is finding a gem for later tonight.
M.
Yes update 6:30ish!
pyoung, I just started with bank of EUR 600.00 (and my monthly sallary is about EUR 140.00).
Hope its not a Carling Cup game, they are nightmares with youth teams running out
pyoung, you can try this:
Start for example with EUR 1000.00
1pt = 10 EUR
After 25-26 days your bank is 1100.00 EUR
Now your 1pt = 11 EUR
After 22-23 days your bank is 1200.00 EUR
Now your 1pt = 12 EUR
and so on.
For about a year, your bank of 1000 EUR will grow ap to let say 4000 – 5000 EUR. But your must be patiend and disciplined.
Now let’s go with the next tip from Karlos.
Update must be soon or we’ll miss most of the kick-offs…
I doubt it will be a UK match
Yes Karlos can we have the update please you are doing a great job keep it up.
Maybe he is not available, maybe he is not sure of a confident choice. Anyway, it will come when it comes. Be patience
I there is update, I think one of these:
CUCUTA – DEPORTIVO CALI
IND. MEDELLIN – REAL CARTAGENA
JUNIOR – SANTA FE
MILLONARIOS – CHICO
- let’s all have a guess … what fun
Deportivo’s last 5 games were 4 losses and 1 tie, and is 15th in the table, going against the 5th;
Real Cartagena has lost the last 5 games and is last in the table, Medellin is 6th;
Junior is 2nd and Santa Fe is 12th, both have 2 ties in the last 5 games;
Millonarios is 1st playing against the 9th, both last 3 games were a tie and 2 victories, so it’s knid of shady.
Oh wait, I have a better bet… wait for Karlos!
@ellandrd, sorry didn’t see your reply earlier.
I never questioned Karlos ability, I’m also following is bets, so if he wins I win, if he loses I lose. So far everything is going great, with the usual hiccups here and there as expected.
I’m not b$*!:^y good at sports, actually I don’t even like football that much, I don’t post my tips because I’m as good at choosing bets as anyone else, so if I don’t trust my own bets (I just lost 2 bets today), why would anyone else? Let’s leave that to the pros, like Karlos
Well ive waited and waited since 6:30 and no update i have to log off now and go to bed hope i dont miss the next advice.
Good morning to all of you. I have just finished reading all the posts and find them very interesting.
Just before 6.30 we had an enormous storm which knocked out all phone lines and obviously the Internet for miles around. Service was not restored until an hour ago. I can only aplogise for the lack of an update last night but matters were totally out of my hands.
I am now working on todays possibilities and will be back as always by 11.00am.
Regards
Karl
We missing you Karlos !
Well Braunschweig left it till the last ten minutes to score but then finished in style, winning 3-0.
Today there is nothing early for us so we start at 5.00pm with an update at 7.15pm.
Sweden Allsvenskan
Hacken v Helsingborgs K.O. 5.00pm
3 pts win Hacken at 8/11 Ladbrokes
Running Total +33.62pts
Last selection won so why should we stake 3 points now?
Sigovi, just read the explanation from the start of this page, everything is clear.
Sequence 1, 3, 5, 8, 11, 15, 20
Winners:
BSP 1.01 – 1.74 = Down the sequence 1 step
BSP 1.75 – 2.49 = Down the sequence 2 steps
BSP 2.50 and above = Reset
Sigowi( & others
)
Karl’s ‘progressive football plan’ is deliciously simple & it’s not fair that Karl should have to keep spending time responding to questions from people who haven’t taken just the little bit of time & care to undersatnd it.
Everything everybody needs to know is included in Karl’s briefing at the top of this page.
Good luck today everyone.
Our last winning was bellow odds 1.74 and with stake of 5 pts. So we move one step down like on the table and our next bet is with 3 pts stake. Clear ?
Sorry,I forgot about those rules and I did definitely not ask Karl
to answer my question,just hoped for an explanation from somebody else.
@dceast… if Karl is intending to run a service he will have to deal with questions and certainly questions more stupid than the one asked politely by sigowi. Luckily there are other followers in this forum that will help in a positive way. So here’s another question for you to snap at… if someone is just starting to follow the selections here today… where would they start 1pt (as they have no previous results) or 3pts (starting on the current sequence)??
I think they should either start with the current points (higher starting profit) or just wait until it goes down to 1pt per bet so there is no confusion later on.
Another little issue: I missed the Braunschweig bet so my last selection was a 3pt loser- should I put on 3 or 5pts today?
Keep up the good work Karl…. excellent tips and system.
jgg321
You lost, so go up a level – 5pts
thanks to langelov and johnye_pt I looked at his predicted games and decided to go 3pts on IND. MEDELLIN v REAL CARTAGENA (Home Win), luckily it came off and I’m back to 1pt
Hmm… 2nd place v. 6th place… would have expected better odds for such a close match-up.
Quite fancy Grasshoppers v. Luzern (2nd v 2nd from bottom) – currently evens with Betfair.
But otherwise like what I have seen so far Karl.
addick:
i need some advice;… should i get my handbag out of the cupboard ?
pyoung30 Says:
September 26th, 2012 at 4:48 pm
I’m a bit miffed perhaps someone can shed some light on the matter. I have been doing £20 per point so first game we lost fair enough I understand we’re not going to win every time. Onto next bet which is now 3pts to staking plan £60 at £20 per point and we lost. Onto 3rd selection which has just started as write this now this should be 5pts to staking plan £100 ,but this is my point the third bet is odds of 8/15 so surely I would have to place £150.00 to even break even and get my £80.00 back so the staking plan hasn’t worked on this occasion or is this me not understanding ? Sorry for the long post
Paul Y
Paul
I think the answer lies in the staking plan. Assuming your 5 point bet won (at odds of 8/15), you do not then revert to a 1 point bet. Instead, because the odds are less than 1.74 (8/15 = 1.53) you revert to a 3 point bet in the next match. Presumably the odds on that next match would be sufficient for the system to recoup the accumulated losses.
Hope this helps.
Rob
Thanks, Sherlock, I came to the same conclusion.
Yes PaganPriest,my question was polite but your answer was absolutely not
polite,impudent only.I´ve been a serios bettor for more than 50 years so
I´m not a youngster any longer.Would it be presumptuous to expect some good
behaviour from a pagan as well from a Christian?
Play nice!!
Just my 2p’s worth, Id like to see people following Karls picks and NOT to start adding their own suggestions and telling people what else they are betting on.
Its going to get confusing seeing other picks posted. No one cares if you bet on X v Y and it won etc etc
Just follow Karl, simples!
oh dear – i better fess up…paganpriest has just taken the rap for my response to sigowi
dceast,you are very welcome to take the rap for your response,too.
To finish this idiotic tommyrot I´d like to say as follows:
Old man having problems understanding childish talk.
Please keep on topic, questions or comments about the system ONLY. I already have to search “karl zanft says” just to find Karl’s posts…
30 minutes to the end of the game and still 1-1, let’s hope they score!
It finished 2-2
Ouch. Stung with an 88th minute equaliser. Bit tough getting a run going at the moment but patience is the key word.
There is absolutely nothing further today so as usual, I’ll be back by 11.00am tomorrow.
Cheers!!
Running Total +30.62pts
Having knowledge of Swedish soccer I was pretty sure
this would be a tight game.Let´s go on.
All very interesting I’m sure but as Jonye said earlier, can we just leave Karl to get on with it and hopefully win this competition!
Good evening (morning?) Guys,
Very disappointing today, I wasn’t here to trade. CLB was bitten by the cat so off to the Docs, pharmacy etc.
Now aside from missing a huge amount of banter (dceast hope you have put handbag away now) the really significant thing is that I have lost money on one of Karl’s selections, the first time for ages. There are opportunities for all of you. I had backed >2.5 and profit if that came in on >3.5 but still lost £65.0. With 4 goals I am sure I could have covered that if I had been here.
This was the first drawn game for ages, probably since Shef. Utd. v Bury on 15.09. that was the last of Karl’s Selections where I suffered a loss.
So he is going through a poor spell at present, it happens, the long term results say it will turn around.
If you are new to this game bet a percentage of your bank, this will reduce your stakes in a losing spell and steadily increase them when the winners return. If you can follow the game and trade to avoid losses then be pro-active.
Good luck to all tomorrow.
M.
I have a confession to make. The bad run over the last two or three days is entirely down to me. Over the last six months I have concentrated on a tweaked version of Lazy Dogs, a Matt Houghton product and whilst it’s been a bit up and down I was still persevering with it. However, over the last two weeks my luck has completely gone down the toilet and I could have laid a three legged, blind chihuahua and it would have won the Greyhound Derby. So I decided to try three of the systems here, this being one of them. The results have continued to be apalling and I take full responsibility for them. I am withdrawing so that I don’t contaminate this site any further and I would now go out and shoot myself if I could afford a gun. Hope the luck changes now.
Bonder4 – Where should we send the money!
I managed to lay Karl’s last bet when they were 1-0 up. I didn’t bet on his recommendation until it wad 1-1…I managed to lock in a profit of 58p hacken didn’t win.. and would if had £15 if they won… onto next bet … just 1pt for me
. Keep up the good work karlos… really good system.. losses are inevitable… staking plan sorts those out 
@Bonder4 thank you for your help, I guess it’s all wins for now on!
All kidding aside, there’s no thing as good luck or bad luck: if you flip a coin 10 times, it’s just as probable to get 5 heads and 5 tails, as to get 10 heads or 10 tails, as every toss gets a 50/50 chance and whoever thinks otherwise is just a fool.
In gambling we just try to find an edge that takes us to the winning side, but ups and downs are bound to happen, that’s why we should never gamble with money we can’t afford to lose. Never think of your gambling money as as investment, but as money you can afford to pile up and burn
In that line of thought… find us a winning team, Karl!
Quite a late start for us today and there will be an update at 7.45pm
Austria Erste Liga
St Polten v FC Lustenau K.O. 5.30pm
5 pts win St Polten at 8/13 Stan James
Running Total +30.62pts
Polten is 2nd and Lustenau is 6th. Lustenau’s last 3 games were at home against 3rd, 1st and 5th, lost against 5th and the other 2 games ended up in a tie. Polten won the last game (away) and it seems its games tend to have many goals (10 goals in the last 3 games). It may be an improper game for persons with a heart condition
How do you get that winking eye emoticon johnye?
Johnye_pt… it may be 2nd v 6th, but to put into context, there are only 10 teams in that league. 6th place is actually in the bottom half of the table.
Do agree that it is a high-scoring league though, and it currently averages over 3 goals a game.
@Rob its a smile with ; )
instead of : ) 
Excellent. Many thanks
or perhaps many thanks 
Rob
By the way, this page seems good for comparing teams and previous encounters between teams:
http://fussball.wettpoint.com/en/h2h/83407-77154.html
Just use Soccer Statistics/Head to Head for other teams.
Look at what I also found:
http://www.soccervista.com/Austria-ADEG_Erste_Liga-2012_2013-827686.html
“5 on SKN St. Polten”. Coincidence? LOL
Oh dear. I remember the days when Karl used to put up selections and the stake, AND THAT WAS THAT.
Now we get trading tips , people betting after a goal has gone in, analysis of the game ( yes Im guilty too)
Its getting more and more complicated when it shouldnt be!
Well it’s not surprising that it’s worked out like that on a free-for-all comments section. It’s not hard to find Karl’s posts, just Ctrl + F “Zanft”.
It never got complicated (except finding Karl’s posts lol), we just follow his tips and that’s it.
It’s normal for those more experienced betters (not me) to use other methods when they see a possibility of losing the bet.
And I think it’s also normal that the longer the system runs, more and more comments are going to appear per bet, specially after a losing bet. It’s just human nature.
It would be easier if Karl could put up his selections in the initial post, but I don’t think that’s possible.
It also might make it easier if the most recent post was at the top. You would only have to do one search for Zanft then, if it wasn’t already the first one showing.
)
I’m pretty sure Matt has changed a thread in the past to order the comments that way, so it can be done.
…even by Matt! (Hi Matt
I’m afraid I did look into it but it can’t be done (not at present anyway). We’re going to be upgrading the site soon to a much newer and better model but for the time being we’ll have to struggle through.
You can do a search and then choose ‘previous’, which will take you to the last result.
I have locked in a profit when the first goal was scored, I can relax now , think it is wise to do so
But Paul, this is not the system!
Recent picks seems unable to hang onto a lead…
*seem
jjg321,that´s a correct grammatical correction
but does it really matter here?
Well if I could edit my comment I wouldn’t have needed to make another one. I presume your issue is with the number of comments on this page, in which case why are you adding to them by complaining? In any case, I’ve already pointed out how it is easy to find Karl’s posts.
Oh, and another correction- you got my initials wrong
jgg321,I couldn´t help uttering this comment,only a joke.
Sorry if I insulted you.I used to be a language teacher so
it´s probably an industral injury.
No hard feelings I hope.
Don’t worry Sigowi, I’m not offended in the slightest. I’m also a linguist (without wanting to sound pretentious) and quite keen on correct grammar.
The most important thing is St Polten won anyway, that’s me back down to a 5pt bet thankfully, not quite back in the black yet though.
Yes,hope we wiil have a good run again.It´s a fantastic system.
Gentlemen,
I am delighted that you have settled things amicably and maybe found some common ground.
I think that we may have shared objectives here and that’s always a good place to start.
M.
has karl forgotten about us
I like karls system BUT he needs to post at the time that he says he will be here.
Maybe he had another power outtage, let’s wait and see. At least we are back to the 3 point bet, one more to “reset”
Hi everyone
Never go on holiday to Spain in the stormy season. What a nightmare with the internet, electricity etc. Anyway, the good news is our selection won and there’s nothing further tonight. I will be back online at 11.00am in the morning.
I know not everyone agrees with the way this thread is being used – but i’m loving it.
Karl & his system is the driving force behind everybody’s stimulation.
( tho i aint sure abowt the english grammar lessons…innit)
(addick…my handbag has been locked away)
Hi karl
I’m near the mar menor and yes the weather is shite so i’ll retire to the pub as there no selections.
addios
(who’s going to be first to correct mal123′s Spanish spelling?)
dceast,
I am very pleased to hear it, let’s hope that you don’t need it again, so long as you know where to find it, just in case!
Personally I see no reason not to maintain or improve our spelling and punctuation as we go along, look upon it as learning something for free.
All we need now is a couple of suitably qualified people to act as moderators or maybe mentors….
M.
Wow, I only joined this 4 days ago and at that point most of the comments were genuine about the system in hand which has been performing very well! Since then it has become more about what everyone else is doing rather than Karl (not Karlos). Why do some of you expect him to post at exactly the time he suggests? if the system is 30 points in profit within 2 months, well what else is there to bitch about??
Just let Karl concentrate on his selections and let the system do the rest by following the system as set out at the start, sit back and relax.
point taken bluiboy.off to the pub to brush up on my espanol
First sensible post on here for a while bluiboy!
A 2-1 success for St Polten yesterday evening takes us back to a 3 point bet which is as follows, with an update at 3.00pm.
France Ligue 2
Caen v Tours K.O. 1.00pm
3 pts win Caen at 4/6 Coral
Running Total +33.7pts
LOST
3.00pm update ?
Stringing two good results together has proven difficult this week and after Caen lost 1-0 we now go back up to 5 pts. The next (and final) update will be at 8.00pm.
Israel Premier League
FC Ashdod v Maccabi Netanya K.O. 5.00pm
5 pts win Ashdod at 13/12 Pinnacle
Running Total +30.7
Soon.
I am sure that Karl will be along shortly, unless he has internet problems again.
Shame Caen couldn’t score. I layed 0:0 for my stake @ HT and then layed 0:1 once Tours scored. Oh well…
Come on Ashdod- decent odds too.
Right, back in business as Ashdod won 3-0 and we’re back to 1 point and a new profit high.
That unfortunately is it for today. Thought there might be a game in Brazilo but the price has gone.
Back in the morning at 11.00am
Running Total +36.12pts
The staking system is certainly clever- only 3 out of the selections I’ve bet on so far have won, all at pretty short odds, yet I’m still pretty much even.
Karl hi,
Maybe I’m missing something, but asa Asdod was 5 points isn’t the next bet 3 points?
TJSI
I can answer your question as Karl probably won’t be back till tomorrow.If you read the staking plan at the top of this thread it explains the staking plan and it states if 1.75 or above drop down 2 in the sequence hence why the next bet will be 1pt. Hope this explain it for you
Kindest Regards
Paul Y
We start today in Finland and there will be an update at 3.15pm.
Finland Kakkonen South
AIFK v EIF K.O. 1.00pm
1 pt win AIFK at 11/20 Sportingbet Youwin
Running Total +36.12
TJIS,I asked a similar question on this forum a few days ago
and got the answer from a couple of persons that it was
completely idiotic.Be careful!
@Sigowi … ah right now I know why you bit my head off. I wasn’t meaning that your question was stupid at all… I was meaning that in running a service there will be many stupid questions asked that’s all… sorry for the way it seems to have come across. I was actually trying to defend your right to ask whatever question seemed relevant to you
…& I was pointing out that Karl has explained ‘Progressive Football Plan’ fully & clearly to one & all in his brief at the top of this page.
Proof of his clarity & thoroughness is that no-one has yet asked a question where the answer isn’t contained in his apercu ( – nice word for Addick)
Thank you dceast,
Probably a little too French and pretentious for me but welcome all the same.
I am glad someone has taken up my idea of promoting good English/grammar/spelling, learning as we post!
M.
It´s ok by me now, PaganPriest.
Let´s forget about it and try
to make some money with this system.
( Addick – pretentious? … moi? )
dceast,
Thanks for the chuckle, needed cheering up as couldn’t get matched at an acceptable price on BF. I think this is one of the most obscure matches we have had, only £1,743 matched on event, no liquidity.
Only 4 bookies offered prices,only one that I have an account with and I lost that on an earlier match. I am not too concerned at missing it as no-one offered ‘in play’ so no trading options.
Good luck to those of you that are ‘on’.
M.
Yeah, I also had trouble finding a bookie that had this game, got it on at SkyBet in the end though at odds very similar to Karl’s.
Does anyone know a website which is updating the live score? It’s still just showing the kick-off time on Soccerway…
http://www.flashscores.co.uk/match/dbxu9088/?of=uk#match-summary
Thanks, just found it myself at the same place- bugger.
Think we were on the wrong team guys same league but Lopa 0 – Espoo 12 !!!
5 Minutes still to go!
Finished 0-0.
That other match was 0-13 in the end, between the bottom 2 teams in the league too who had both lost their 5 previous matches. The bottom side’s goal difference is now minus 126 after 24 games.
Just seems to be one of those periods that happen every now and then as we struggle to string a series of results together. AIFK could only manage a 0-0 draw. So, onwards we go as follows and with the next update at 11.00am in the morning.
France Ligue 2
Monaco v GFC Ajjacio K.O. 5.00pm
3 pts win Monaco at 3/7 188Bet
Running Total +35.12
Do other houses other than Betfair allow betting below 2€/£? And as I’m typing this, 0-1 for Aijacio…
If its exchanges you want then betdaq has a minimum of £1, all regular bookies have very small minimum bets, i think the lowest is 10p.
Sorry, don’t know what you mean with exchanges (I’m a noob in betting vocabulary). What I want is to also bet on the other team (it’s a method I’m testing), according to my “formula” I should bet 0,78€ but I could only bet 2€ or higher on Betfair.
Johnye-pt,
There is a well known way around that on Betfair…
Say the bet you want to take has odds of 1.80 for example…
1. Bet £2 on it, but change the odds to much higher than available – in this example say 10.0 or something. This is so that nobody jumps in & matches your bet while you do the rest of the steps.
2. Betfair will now show you have the bet, but it is unmatched
3. Now change the stake on your unmatched bet by adding the amount you wabnt to bet e.g. if you want to stake 78p, change the stake of the unmatched bet to £2.78 & “Update” it
4. Betfair will now show that you have 2 unmatched bets at 10.0, one with a stake of £2 & one with a stake of the difference, which is 78p in this example.
5. Now change the odds of the 78p bet to 1.80, & also click the “X” by the unwanted £2 bet. Then “Update” the bet.
6. Voila! You are left with a single bet of 78p at odds of 1.80
This is a well known technique which has been around for ages & I’m surprised Betfair haven’t closed the loophole yet.
Just remember in step 1 to change the odds to well ABOVE what they are currently, so you don’t get accidentally matched. Clearly, if it’s a lay bet, you would need to change the odds to well BELOW the current price.
Monaco 0:2
Monaco 1:2
Petewins57 a very detailed response to johny_pt but he’s just said he doesn’t know what a betting exchange is and you’ve explained how to do what he wants to do on a betting exchange! He doesn’t know what it is!!! I’m sure you was only trying to help but seeing as johny_pt is backing and laying a team hes not following Karlos system which this thread is meant for I’m sure if johny_pt googled betting exchanges he would find better sites and threads on how to improve his knowledge on betting exchange or even the basics on a you tube clip would help him more.
Regards
Paul Y
Fixed match, 2:2
I don’t know what is more gripping, trying to follow this match and wondering when/if Monaco are going to score or the singles in the Ryder Cup!
Not helped by Flashscores continuing to ignore the third and fourth goals…
Wasn’t on the first match today and got out of this one by laying the 0:1 and backing >2.5. Shame the horses weren’t so accommodating.
M.
Ryder cup I’m glued !!
Thanks for the tip. I have noticed the unmatched bet before, just never thought of using it that way.
It’s for a back bet and not a lay bet. Since the weaker team normally has high odds, I’m betting in both teams but using a formula on the weaker team that gives me a 1 point profit when they win, covering all previous losses.
I “ran a test” in an Excel sheet with all games results but I only have odds for the stronger team, so if all weaker teams had odds of 4.0, that would give me an extra profit of over 60 points up to FC Ashdod v Maccabi Netanya. That’s 1 point for every defeat and 3 points for every consecutive defeat. Both bets are lost in case of a tie.
Positive side: more points, after every defeat the bet on the weaker team resets to 1pt
Negative side: it may require twice the initial bank, because after many consecutive wins you find yourself betting high on the weaker team.
Sorry for the off-topic, but if I confirm that both methods combined actually work, that will be good news for everyone
@pyoung30 I’m following Karl’s method to the letter, I’m just side-betting with one of my own and see if both combined bring higher profit. After all, isn’t that what we all want?
Shocking result for Monaco that, we really don’t seem able to get a run together at the moment, I’m back to being down a few points.
johnye_pt, how does backing both teams cover the draw though?
@Johnye_pt Absolutely all after a profit ! Did I misunderstand what you mean you understand betting exchanges just misunderstood what a exchange meant ?
Regards
Paul Y
@pyoung30 yes, my English is good, but not when using betting terms
@jgg321 It doesn’t. Let’s suppose, for ease of calculations, that the odds for the second team are always 4. Actually the higher the odds, the less you need to back the second team.
Basically you start by betting 1pt on the second team. If it loses or ties, you add all previous losses +1 (profit), then divide by odds -1. When the second team wins, you get 1pt profit and restart backing at 1pt.
game 1: bet 1pt@4 on the second team, first team wins, down 1pt
game 2: bet 0.67pt@4 on the second team, there’s a tie, down 1.67pt
game 3: bet 0.89pt@4 on the second team, second team wins, up 1pt
game 4: bet 1pt@4 on the second team, second team wins, up 4pt
It’s totally independent of Karl’s method, I’m just using both to see if it’s worth the gain. Ties just postpone a profit, that’s all.
But as I said before, this has nothing to do with Karl’s method, is method seems to be rock solid!
Sorry, what I meant was…
Basically you start by betting 1pt on the second team. If it loses or ties, your next bet on the second team is calculated by adding all previous losses plus +1pt, then divide by (odds -1). When the second team wins, you get 1pt profit and restart backing at 1pt.
jgg321 I know results are a bit hit and miss at the moment but I think you have to look at the results Karlos has had over the past 2 months 30+ points if that rate continued for the next year that’s 360 points £3600 to £10 stakes and £36000 to £100 stakes (per point )which would be a fantastic return .
Regards
Paul Y
Good morning
So, tough going at the moment and back to 5 points. Just one match today and then the next update at 11.00am in the morning.
Holland Division 2 (Jupiler League or Eerste Divisie) K. O. 7.00pm
Helmond Sport v Dordrecht
5 pts win Helmond at 13/15 Pinnacle
Running Total +32.12pts
Thanks Karl
Now lets see if we can get to tonight without:
1) Other peoples systems
2) Trading on the score
3) Any other discussions on peoples own picks
Keep this thread for Karls system! ie the first post rules only!!
That price didn’t last long…
Good morning howeyt,
I guess we are all entitled to our opinions and you state yours clearly, you want a very sharp focus, maybe just Karl’s posts?
That could be posted on a web page, this is a forum, it’s designed to permit the readers to contribute. If the discussion threads digressed widely ‘off topic’ I would find progressively more agreement with you.
For me I think that a healthy exchange of ideas focused around Karl’s selections and how to extract the best value from them is a legitimate use of the forum and maybe helpful to other readers.
As for ‘trading on the score’ I don’t need to share what I am doing but it may be useful to others. Having progressively increased my stakes I am not comfortable having 5 (or maybe 8) points staked on an event with 3 possible outcomes. If the match is not going well there are other strategies such as laying the current score or backing >2.5 etc (where you have BOTH teams playing for you) this can turn a losing match, like the Monaco game into a profitable one. If you just recover your stake you live to bet another day.
I guess it’s up to Matt to decide, if he feels the need to intervene.
Good luck with your betting.
M.
Can I just say that whilst I don’t act on any of the advice from the other people posting on this forum, I do enjoy reading the banter. I don’t mind skimming through other people’s posts to get to Karl’s – it passes the time when I am commuting!
Also, we went through a really long run of wins and now there are quite a few losses… Is this typical of how things go Karl? How long have you been practising your system? And have you noticed this kind of pattern before? Thanks, Rowena
This seems to be quite normal.During my more than 50 years as a bettor
I have seen this pattern repeated over and over again.A couple of years
ago i had 16 wins on the trot,then a tough run like this.
Don´t lose your faith in the system and have patience.
Those are two betting rules we should keep to.
I guess what I was trying to say, this is Karls system, which is aiming to win the competition, and then go to subscription.
So I just think its more respectful to just follow the system exactly (as surely thats the point)
Anyone giving out extra info on how to profit from the selections is just distracting from what Karls doing.
But hey carry on as Karl hasnt said anything and everyone seems to like it, so I’ll just stay quiet and use the system as it was supposed to be used.
No offence was meant. All the best.
I’m not offended, I’m with you howeyt.
All I want to do is check Karl’s comments and results, I’m not interested in other variations to the system, other matches, how long people have been betting for, or what time they get up in the night to check the score, surely that’s why the world has Facebook!!!!
No offence taken howeyt.
Let’s hope we are all on a winner tonight.
Best regards
M
In reply to Rowena, stringing winning runs together is the norm, it’s just the recent results which have proved difficult. Do realise this though, that despite all the disappointments of last week we didn’t ever have more than 2 losers in a row (and that’s probably cursed tonights match) and we lost just 1 pt on the week.
Sigowi is absolutely correct with his comments – don’t lose faith and have patience.
I just grit my teeth and get on with it knowing that all will be well in the end. If the next bet is 8 points then so be it. I have total faith in what I’m doing here. Fingers crossed for Helmond.
Hi Guys just a quick one anyone that wants to watch the Helmond game can do for free on betfair live video. Ps other team have just scored 0-1 against run of play just our luck at moment hey !
Regards
Paul Y
Cant believe Helmond sport have just missed an open goal!
Ouch 0.2
For whoever is interested, this is what I could gather up to 31 September. In 104 games/bets there were:
- 17 losses
- 19 draws
- 68 wins
- 7 games with no goals
- 15 games with 1 goal
- 16 games with 2 goals
- 27 games with 3 goals
- 16 games with 4 goals
- 17 games with 5 goals
- 2 games with 6 goals
- 3 games with 7 goals
- 1 game with 9 goals
The following line has nothing to do with Karl’s method.
@Addick I think you’re on to something when laying on draw… 19/104 is about 1/5 of the games, so to make a profit we would need to lay with odds below 5.0, right?
@johnye_pt,
Interesting stats. There were a couple of angles I was looking at but had insufficient time and data, if we shared it would help on both counts.
I need HT and FT scores on many matches.
If you or any of the silent majority can help please advise malcolm.dow@hotmail.co.uk
Many thanks
M.
Good morning. Once again things didn’t go our way last night and today is pretty quiet with just the one match and an update at 11.00aam in the morning.
England Championship
Brighton v Ipswich K.O. 7.45pm
8 pts win Brighton at 10/13 32Red
Running Total +27.12pts
Lucky me, I bet 8 pts at 1.78 with BetFair, that’s 0.01 higher than yours
You’re really keeping us on the edge of the seat with 1 match a day LOL
Hello Johnye,
Won’t that be 1.73 after commission on your winnings??
Cheers
Mark
Yeah, forgot that part…
Come on Brighton.After going full tilt with betfair,mousecliff and Deans lays at the w/e (luck of the Irish my ass)i think we all need a change of luck.
Surely not??!! Come on Brighton.. Ipswich not won all season . To be honest I thought a great bet beforehand
The luck’s not with us at the moment it seems, probably my fault- strike rate was above 60% before I started, down to 27% since I’ve been following the selections…
Come on Brighton 1.1
Finished 1-1. Hope our luck turns soon, I’m currently 28pts down.
OH dear next bet 11 paints!!!!
A very bad month start, with 1 loss at 5pts and 1 draw at 8pts, lets hope the next match turns our luck around…
argh points
Goog luck guys decided to cash out on betfair when Brighton were 0-1 down so re-couped some cash and called it a day, but this system is not for me. Hope Karl gets you all a winner on the next match.
Regards
Paul Y
Guys, you have to be prepared to take the rough with the smooth. Progressive betting can be dangerous but providing long term that the hit rate remains over 60% and providing you have the correct bank size in place things should be ok. Just over a week ago this was the best thing since sliced bread but since a few losers some are jumping ship!
There is no such thing as a banker, look at the other results tonight, Barnsley Swindon etc all went against the stats.
@stantheman Totally agree ive only been following a couple of weeks so have not really had a taste of the smooth ! This system is just not for me and ive gone back through Karls results before i started and they are fantastic so im not in anyway faulting the system or Karls ability. I will still follow the selections (paper trading), but have just decided to cut my losses and avoid placing my hard earned cash on them for the time being. As i said good luck and i truley hope Karl turns it around for you all within the next three matches cause the system only goes up to 20 points not sure what happens after that. Good luck
Kindest Regards
Paul Y
11 points is as high as I’ll go, because the starting bank I used was profit from a previous lucky bet. If it goes bad, no harm no foul.
At September 18th, Karl replied to langelo’s question with:
“A starting bank of 150 euros is more than adequate and I would suggest you start at 10 euros a point, so there is no problem at all in increasing your stake. Build your stakes up slowly from there.”
150 euros at 10 euros a point is 15 points, I guess Karl wasn’t expecting a losing streak so soon, maybe if it happened later, or if langelo started sooner, or if he started with 5 or less euros a point, he would have enough points for the next bet. I guess that’s why the starting bank should always be bigger than the sequence points combined.
Let’s see what the future (aka Karl) reserves for us!
Hi johnye_pt and everyone on the forum and I’m sorry for my bad English.
I remember that part when Karl explains me about bank and stakes. But I know from the previous experiences that I must take care myself for my betting bank. I start with a bank of 600 EUR and 1% from the bank for 1 pt stake. (1pt=6eur; 3pts=18eur; 5pts=30eur; etc.) So, my next stake is 11pts=66eur and I’m still in the game and I’ll continue with Karl until the end of my bank.
I suggest to everyone here that betting bank is most important part of every betting strategy and like stantheman says,you must be very careful especially with progressive systems like this.
Good luck and I hope that we all together with Karl can change many things starting from today.
Just to weigh in with my thoughts, I think it’s important to note that despite yesterday’s loss and a pretty grim run, this is still 16.12 points in profit. While people have obviously started at different times, you really need to look at the full picture – after all, it’s been publicly proofed so is fully verified.
I’d say this needs a fairly sizeable bank (50-100 points) in case you come in on a bad run but long-term it’s done well so far and I would imagine a good run is just around the corner.
Agreed. The mistake folks make is not starting with a big enough bank. And in this case we can see the previous results as it has been fully proofed. Two wins on the spin and we will all be laughing
Well trust Ipswich to turn in a performance like that and pinch a point. But look, there is no need to panic. It’s inevitable that runs like this will happen occasionally and there is no need to panic. Again it’s a difficult day and there’s only one match, but if that’s the way it has to be then so be it. Slowly but surely we’ll get there.
Next message at 11.00am in the morning.
European Champions League
Arsenal v Olympiakos K.O.7.45 pm
13pts win Arsenal at 3/7 32Red
Running Total +19.12pts
I guess we all agree that Karl’s method, despite its occasionally ups and downs works fairly well. And disregard those 16.12 points, because as soon as he picks a winning team we’ll be quickly back to 1pt bets and 30+ points profit
Karl, shouldn’t that be a 11pt bet?
Many apologies for the error in the stake which should of course been 11pts. Hopefully if you have already staked at 13 then you can lay 2 pts back on the exchanges. Really sorry for the error.
Hi all! I’ve been following Karl and a couple of others in the comp. for a week or so. Yes, all of them are in deep doo-doo but agree that the long term must be looked at.
I think 11 points is a big stake (can’t remember seeing a recommended stake that big anywhere) but Arsenal SHOULD win (not of course, will) so I’ll go for it.
Interesting stats from last night in England: In Championship/Div 1/Div2/FA Trophy there were 45 matches. Of which there were 5 Home wins, 14 Draws and 26 aways. Now that is extreme.
Arnold
“follow the Elland Road roar”
Please excuse my stupidity but the next number in a fibonacci sequence is 13. Then It`s 21!!!. Is there a reason specific reason, and I`m sure there must be, that Karl only suggests 11points then 15points in his modified system? Of which I am quite relieved actually.
Arsenal SHOULD win on paper so fingers crossed.
I agree with Arnold about last nights English lgue results, Just crazy.
It`s 10 games into the season now and teams are still scrapping for positions. It will settle towards winter, rather like flat horse racing does after May. Good luck tonight all.
Regards, Steve
Yesterday was a really weird day for football. Even Carles Puyol broke his arm when playing against Benfica. What a nasty fall…
@pepston I’m sure Karl’s sequence is different from the Fibonacci’s sequence on purpose. My guess is that the first 3 or 4 numbers in the sequence usually brings us profit, the others are lower so we don’t have to bet so high, taking a little loss until we recover.
Imagine we’re playing at 1/2 odds or 1.50 odds:
- lose 1pt bet, win 3pts bet (1.5pts earned, 0.5pts profit, back to 1pt bet)
- lose 1+3pts bets, win 5pts bet (2.5pts earned, 1.5pts loss, next bet 3pts)
- lose 1+3+5pts bets, win 8pts bet (4pts earned, 5pts loss, next bet 5pts)
- lose 1+3+5+8pts bets, win 11pts bet (5.5pts earned, 11.5pts loss, next bet 8pts)
As obvious all depends on the odds we’re playing with, that’s why we skip 2 steps in the sequence when the bet odds are high enough.
I have put all the results into The Staking Machine software, if anyone is interested in the alternative staking plan profits. But obviously this system has its own plan so its just reference only.
johnye_pt. Thanks for the info mate. It makes a lot of sense having a buffer and as you say when the odds are high enough any losses are absorbed. Breaking even is a bonus in the current climate.
I`ve been through past results of my own selections and I certainly would have cut my losses having used this staking plan. I just didn`t take into account the odds for previous and further bets. Ie the odds rules. Thanks for clearing that up.
I watched Puyol come down like a bloody lathe going over a cliff after the header attempt. Shit that hurt. Nasty injury, Barca are gonna need him.
Regards and good luck, Steve.
Arsenal not at the races so far…
That sparked them into life successfully!
Oh dear…
Well I’m happy with that. I was on 20pts tonight because I missed the Ashad win which reset everyone to 1pt. What do other people do if they miss a selection?
I think you should stick with the original method until we hit a win streak. That means we will be betting 1pt and you’ll be going down the sequence until you also reach 1pt.
Thanks for the response. That’s what I did going up the sequence. Means I drop down to 15 tomorrow. Really need to pull a winning sequence together to break even as I started this method at the start of the bad run.
hi johnny -pt
i think our next bet should be 8pts
johnny25 I meant that after we finally get to 1pt/bet after a winning streak, woodywood78 will still be at 3pts/bet.
Well we pulled back just under 5 points last night as Arsenal Won 3-1. Our next bet will be 8 pts but not today as there is absolutely nothing that matches the criteria. Back at 11.00am tomorrow.
Running Total +23.83 pts
First match today at lunchtime followed by an update at 3.15pm
Ukraine Persha League
Zirka v Mykolaiv K.O. 1.00pm
8 pts win Zirka at 2/5 B365
Running Total +23.83
You seem to have successfully influenced the odds on Bet365 anyway- Zirka went from 2/5 to 1/5 when I was in the process of placing the bet! I’ve not used Bet365 now, clearly.
Nothing till later so the next update will be at 5.30pm.
NEXT UPDATE 5.30pm
Thanks
Karl
Good luck Karl, i have been following with interest and although it can get nervy the higher up you go in the staking plan, it must be there for a reason, no gain without pain as they say! It hinges and your longest winning and losing runs of course in the past.
One famous sentence: “Betting is marathon, it’s not sprint”.
If we have luck and when we go down to 1pt sequence, I’ll be changing my staking plan. I’ll go to 1pt=0.5% of my betting bank (depends also from service subscription price) instead of now my 1pt=1% of my betting bank.
Good luck!
0:1
Back up to 11pts then…
It really is tough at the moment but I know it’s only a matter of time. So we move on with one more game tonight and then an update at 10.30pm in the morning for what I expect to be a very busy day.
Holland Eerste Divisie (Jupiler League)
Volendam v Veendam K.O. 7.00pm
11 pts win Volendam at 4/9 Blue Square 888bet
Running Total =15.83 pts
Well, I just decided to reduce my points value in half. I was waiting until we reached 1pt/bet, but at this rate I wouldn’t be here when it happened. I never took into account that if we got “stuck” between high points bets, I would need a bigger bank. I know, it’s not Karl’s fault, it’s all mine for setting the wrong initial point value. At least I haven’t quit yet, I still trust Karl will bring us to good port
Really need Volendam to win this . 0.0 with 30 min left . Veendam not got an away point all season!
As I missed the Ashad game and the re set to 1pt. This Volendam game is 20pts for me. If it loses what is the next one in the sequence?
COME ON VOLEMDAN!!!!!! Anyone else just a wee bit scared?!
seems like we all joined just as a downturn hit. The only way out is to stick with it , but it is hard to take when this had done so well for 2 months before we took the plunge.. Cannot believe these results . All bottom teams beating top teams away
Veendam have got a second, another loser. 4 winners from the last 15 now at average odds of 1.59, even by the implied probability you’d expect 9 winners and to make a profit you’d have to beat that figure of course. I’m now 47 points down- we really need a good day tomorrow!
Noooooooo!!! Hope this weekend is luckier for all of us.
Being scared is OK.
It is how you manage it that is important.
I blame Matt. As soon as he talked these T Factor entries up. They all hit the skids. This being the worse. Come on Karl… Lets have a good weekend..
jgg321
The irony is that if you had just discovered a service (15 selections ago)
providing that strike rate and prices as a LAYING service you would be very pleased…
This has got to turn around soon and tomorrow is set to be busy.
M.
I guess this is what happens when we have a bad streak with a progressive betting plan. I don’t doubt it is possible to recover, but 11pts was as high as I ever intended to go, and we’ve been there twice in 3 bets. I’m cutting my losses and moving on. Good luck to the rest of you.
If its any consolation Karlos and all us pilgrims, every team i`ve picked today has ducked. Including this one. Honestly, it`s like they just don`t want to play. Managers need a kick up the arse to get the ball rolling or it won`t be long before their heads will. Can`t wait for tomorrow to see how much more damage the overpaid monkeys can do to my bank account.
Just not going to plan at the moment. We start with an early bet today and an update at 1.15pm
Russian Premier
Lokomotiv Moskva v Krasnodar
15 pts win Lokomotiv at 13/18 Pinnacle
Running Total +7.83 pts
Karl,
I am skipping this one.
Did you mean the 11.00 K.O. between Lok.Moskova and KUBAN ? (not Krasnodar)
This is probably just a typo. but the uncertainty leaves me concerned which teams form you have checked.
Will be back for update @ 13.15.
Good luck.
M
Karl,
Shouldnt the running totals now be +4.83 whereas you have +7.83?
15.83 minus 11 = 4.83 unless i am missing something with your staking plan??
hi addick the team is kuban krasnodor time is 11.00 ko still 0-0 so time to get on if you want at good odds
Have been using this formula since +33 points…since then its been a disaster…have looked at lates tip and wonder why pick that…what are the reasonings behind this pick ??? Yes jayjay it should be +4.83
1.0 down!! I think I am going to have to pull out of this . Too sharp a drop regardless of betting bank . Dropped like a stone since I started
@ theohenry ,
Many thanks, I hadn’t gone as far as Betfair or Oddschecker, which show the full team name. I think it is still confusing though, if you look at the Russian Prem. Lge listings and/or recent matches on Flashscores they list 2 teams in that Lge. both Kuban and Krasnodar…
I won’t mention who scored first, in the 71st minute..
M.
For the first time i´m going to give my opinion.
I only followed this system on paper, never put any money on it.
One thing it´s true , all Martingale, Fibonaci, etc system will take you to misery. It´s proven so many times.
All the systems are great when you choose the right picks , if you don´t find the right picks then all are disaster.
Another thing, picking always one strong time agains a weeker time when the stonger is playing at home doesn´t assure that you´re gonna be right, if you look closer often the weeaker time makes a surprise, nobody wins all the time, and nobody losses all the time.
Look what´s hapenning today for exemple,
Urawa 0 – 2 Sapporo
Cottbus 0 – 1 Duisburg
And i can give lots off exemples.
It doens´t matter what you say, do or try, there´s no miraculous system.
Have good luck picking the right winners, all the rest doens´t matter.
Good luck you all.
Carvoeiro, your comments are a bit too simplistic while i do agree in parts with what you say. Its obvious that stronger teams will not always beat weaker teams, but its all about getting the odds in your favour, there is no fool proof system thats obvious as you say. Karl might well go onto to have 10 winners in row! Also, I disagree with your comments about the fibonacci staking, i have been using it for 3 years with another system and have never had one losing sequence. Its all about using it with the right product or method that has sound stats to back to it. Even if i had 6 losing sequences i would still be in profit using the fibonaaci sequence with the product i bought years ago!! But its doubtful if thats going to happen if i’ve never had one in 3 years and 2 months. So its all about what you use it with and also if you dont mind the stakes you have to place the higher up the ladder you go. Your right about the martingale staking though – now that is a complete disaster!
The misery goes on as we lost 1-0. Surely we must hit a winning sequence soon? I can only do my best, continuing in the way I always have and trust we can soon recover current losses.
Next match as follows and an update at 4.15pm
Denmark Division 2 West
Aarhus Fremad v Brabrand
20 pts win Aarhus at 4/9 B365
Running Total -10.17
Im out.Losses to great to continue, all the best hope your luck changes soon and all the best in the comp.
What happens after 20 ???
I’m also out. Good luck to everyone here.
Karl, as jasper65 says, we need to know what happens after 20? Given the recent run, & looking ahead with all outcomes in mind, plus knowing that some of us have missed a bet or two here & there, you should know that some people are actually on, or are rapidly approaching, the 20pt mark.
That being the case, you really SHOULD have posted by now saying what happens if the 20pt bet goes down. We all know (or should do) that it’s about the long term, & to stick with it through the bad times, which are bound to happen with any system. So I have no criticism on that front.
However, the current situation has been on the horizon for a while & I would say you really should have posted on the plan should the worst happen.
So … what’s the next step?
Betfair have suspended betting on this ! Probably a lot of money for an obscure match!
The game is not an “in-play” game so thats why its suspended
If we don’t win this match, I think I might throw up. I know I shouldn’t have spent so much money but once you are trying to win back all the money you have lost, what else are you supposed to do?
0-1 ffs
Good luck all
Looks like we will find out what happens after 20 then !!!
I think the running total should be closer to 20pts at the minute not the 10pts Karlos has put – meaning when this finishes as a loss it will be nearly -40pts.
I went to 25pts this morning as mentioned before I missed the reset win with Ashad. Ive cut my losses and out now and good luck to everyone who continues.
Sorry, my error, Karl has the right points total. Good luck.
Looks like the magic touch has deserted me completely. We stick on 20 pts now for the next bet. Next update at 12.30pm in the morning.
Switzerland Challenge League
Aarau v Wils K.O. 4.45pm
20 pts win Aarau at 9/10 Stan James
Running Total -30.17
Guys I wouldn’t go above 20 points cut your losses and move on
Regards
Paul y
Just to clear up on the staking, we stick at 20 pts now 20A, 20B, 20C etc and move up or down from there.
Hope that hepls.
Karl
Not good. I bailed at 11 points. Not got the bottle for this. I googled “expected losing runs” on a system with an strike rate of 60% like this one and there is a 75% likelihood of a losing run of 6. This means that you are almost inevitably going to go to 20 points like this has done.
A 25 % chance of losing run of 12. Big B**** and a Big Bank needed!
Good luck if you continue to play.
I agree with Systematic.. I haven’t played this since the start but have monitored and evaluated all the contestants… there is only one that is consistent and will be long term. Do the figures and you will see before you place any money… no point in complaining afterwards.
Glad I missed that last selection, pity I didn’t miss the earlier game, 10 minutes before kick-off is not enough notice but I eventually bet in-play (at higher odds therefore smaller stake but still another loser). I think I may be another one cutting my losses on this if this is another loser, that would leave me over 80 points down- I’m glad I’m betting with ‘tester’ stakes…
For those that wish to check losing sequences for the future… use this in your spreadsheet
The bench mark for all staking plans is level stakes. By this we mean a fixed unit per bet. A selection system that produces a profit to level stakes has a positive edge. You cannot make money from betting without an edge.
E.L.S. – Expected Losing Sequence
=ROUND(LN(n)/-LN((1-(sr/100)))
where n = number of bets and sr = strike rate as a percentage.
Karl, you have rigid way of system selections, but have to ask , are you purely looking at recent form or ELO ratings etc?
As all those sort of criteria will be useless if you dont check head to head history, injuries, and trends etc
Some selections have teams that hadnt won the same fixture for many years!
But you dont need me mentioning this as youre probably confused enough as to why its going downhill right now.
For example why not pick West Brom today, it ticked the right boxes and at good odds.
…and 10 minutes in, 1-0 down already.
Karl,
Thanks for the update on what to do now as regards the next stake. When you talk about “20A, 20B..” etc, do you mean that the staking sequence is now 1-3-5-8-11-15-20-20A-20B-20C-20D-…. etc? So if we get to (heaven forbid!) 20C & it wins, we go back to 20B or 20A, depending on the winning odds?
Thank God this match went our way. This has been terrifying. I know I got cocky and bet with too high stakes after the winning run… But what to do now is the question. Do I drop down the three points like I am meant to (I was on 11 with £100.00 stakes) and risk loads of money again, do I bet a smaller amount and try to recoup my money more slowly or do I give up? I wish I had a crystal ball… Anyone else still feeling confident or is everyone now as insecure as me?! Advice please… Am currently down around £500.00…
It’s my humble opinion that stopping the betting points progression is a mistake, because it will bring much loss to whoever is using the system. Winning the 20A pts bet will not help recover the 20pts loss from the previous bet unless you’re using odds of 2.0 (2/1) or above. On the other hand, using the actual Fibonacci sequence, each bet can practically recover the previous bet if the odds average is 1.6 (6/10) or above.
1×0.6 = 0.6 pts
(2×0.6 = 1.2 pts, this step is missing)
3×0.6 = 1.8 pts
5×0.6 = 3.0 pts
8×0.6 = 4.8 pts
11×0.6 = 6.6 pts (should be 13×0.6 = 7.8 pts)
15×0.6 = 9.0 pts (should be 21×0.6 = 12.6 pts)
20×0.6 = 12.0 pts (should be 34×0.6 = 20.4 pts)
20Ax0.6 = 12.0 pts (should be 55×0.6 = 33.0 pts)
Each bet profit should equal the previous bet loss, otherwise after losing the 8pts bet we’ll just be praying for winning bets. As obvious, for this to work we need more winning bets than losing bets…
@johnye … I agree with your point but don’t agree with any progressive betting strategy at all. The strategy deployed here by Karl cannot be changed as that would be against the rules of the competition surely.
I’m not suggesting any change to the strategy, I’m just saying the betting sequence should have been the Fibonacci to cut losses to the minimum, but that would mean we would be betting 55 points by now instead of 20A…
Every betting systems have ups and downs, but without enough points to back it up after an unexpected loss streak, progressive systems that use Fibonacci and Martingale sequences eventually deplete the bank.
I’m now (kind of) glad I’ve stopped at 11pts, I just hope Karl can help everyone else recover to 1pt bets, so they can re-evaluate if their bank can handle another losing streak.
@PaganPriest I feel that Karl has already broken the rules that he set out above as No where in his staking plan does it say that when you get to 20 points you go onto 20 a b c d etc It would be interesting to see Matts view on this matter after all he’s running the competition . I do think its been a poor run but how can you change your staking plan when basically it’s gone BUST.
Regards
Paul Y
I would just like to clear up one or two queries that have been raised. It has been said here before but I would like to reiterate. The starting bank recommendation at the top of this thread is for 150 points. The major reason why people give up following any system or strategy is that they totally fail to have an adequate bank. Since the beginning of this competition the worst loss at any one time has been 30 points and that is after the current run this week. It is almost inevitable that any service at some point will have the sort of run we are going through. Anyone with the advised bank will go on to recover losses and continue building up profits.
Regarding the selections there is a lot of criteria that I apply when checking the potential selections and that includes overall form, recent form, head to heads plus much more and then the final thing – my own personal opinion. Before the cynics comment on that I accept that it has not been very good recently but the results prior to this week are there for all to see. The system will recover, will move back in to profit and will move forward once more.
In truth this is the worst run I have ever had and the most points I have had to stake but I have complete confidence in what I am doing.
I am always very happy to answer any questions people may have so do keep them coming.
I hope that helps.
Karl I agree with all you said. Most problems begin with the starting bank and/or the value chosen for each point, although September 18th you told someone that “a starting bank of 150 euros is more than adequate” and you even suggested to “start at 10 euros a point”, I believe you were being honest as you didn’t expect a losing streak this long.
But you surely also noticed that the higher your stake plan goes, the higher the odds need to be to recover losses, since your plan differs from the Fibonacci sequence.
But in your defense, football games’ results have been completely crazy this last days, regardless what kind of system anyone’s using.
I’ll follow your plan on paper, I’m sure sooner rather than later you’ll find those elusive winning streaks
Based on what I said earlier about “Expected losing runs” and that Karl himself has acknowledged going to 20 point bets is a new phenomenon for his system, If I were betting on this knowing what we now know can happen, I would have a 300 point bank to allow a losing run of 12 to take place and still have a comfort zone built in.
It has been clear from myself and others on here that we ” Bottled” either because our stakes per point were too high or we saw the betting bank eroded too far for our liking.
This is exactly the point Johnye_pt most people may of had a starting bank of 150 point but because they were told 10 euro per point a loss of 15 points would of been sufficient to empty the bank . My point was that the staking plan has gone bust as we have gone right up to 20 points and there’s no where to go from there (if there is it was never mentioned ) so doing 20 a b c d etc is an after thought cause Karl freely admits he’s never been and these dizzy heights before. Good luck to those of you still in I do hope Karl turns this around for everyone
Regards
Paul Y
To be fair with regards the 150 euro bank thing, it actually states at the top 150 points (as it has done all along) which is of course very different. I don’t know whether the 150 euro/10 euro point thing was a mistake or what but as Karl has rightly pointed out, at no stage has this been more than 30 points in arrears. Additionally, even those starting at the worst possible time won’t have come close to breaking a 150 point bank.
Nobody following the rules then i.e. with a 150 point bank will have been busted out and nor ‘should’ they have stopped betting – of course I completely understand if anybody has stopped but it’s important to note that it is through their own choice and not down to a fault with the system.
As regards what happens after 20 points, yes that wasn’t stated but there’s a difference between not stating something and changing the rules. There can only be an issue here if the rules are changed and I do not believe that they have been.
Finally I’d just like to remind everyone that the winner(s) of this competition are determined by you, so if you’re not a fan of any of the systems for any reason then you can vote for another one. That’s exactly why I started the T Factor – to get something started that has already proven itself and that there is a demand for.
In essence this is a no lose process in that the only way anybody can lose is by throwing more money than they can afford at a system and if that does happen then while it’s not pleasant, it is at least a valuable lesson.
Many thanks for your response Matt your quite correct in the fact that the starting bank of 150 points has never been reached, my point was the staking sequence and although the rules stated above have not been broken, I disagree with you that it’s is very unfair on all the other competitors in the competition that Karl has simple made some new rules up hence 20 a b c d etc ill shut up now as no one else seems to agree with me Rant over lol
Personally I can’t see how it’s unfair – unfair would be saying a system has busted out when it’s not anywhere near the stated bank limit.
It was an oversight sure but it’s logical that if you reach the end of a sequence you then stick on the final number – it’s not like he’s said out of the blue ‘let’s jump to a 100 point bet’ and then got a lucky win that put him back into profit.
Anyway we’ll agree to disagree and it’s ultimately down to a vote isn’t it, so if others agree with you then that’ll be reflected. I’ve no favourites in this competition, I just want the contestant with the most votes and the best results to win, whoever that may be. If Karl bounces back then he’ll deserve credit and if he doesn’t, he won’t win.
Matt as you know I never ever said he had busted out on his betting bank but had come to the end of the road of his betting sequence(therefore busting on the sequence) bit like catching a train and getting to the end of the the track! Your competition you run it how you wish
Regards
Paul Y
So what would you suggest he do? Stop betting because he came to the end of the sequence even though the loss was well within the bank. That doesn’t make any sense to me.
I mean, what if this had been running for three years and it was 500 points up and then it hit a sequence of losers that went past the 20 point mark in taking the total profit down to plus 440 points – you wouldn’t suddenly stop would you? You’d determine the best way forward and move on, as it has still (in the long term) worked great.
As I said it’s a public vote so it’s not for me to punish or remove contestants (unless they’ve intentionally cheated e.g. posted fake results), it’s for members to weigh up the pros and cons and vote accordingly.
I’m not sure Matt if truth be known, but all I was saying is that Karl seems to of added his own rules in adding more bets to his sequence which is why I said it seems unfair on the other competitors, but you’ve had a look at the situation and made the call and I respect your decision . Let hope Karl claws the points back cause I no everyone would much prefer to be betting at lower points. Just felt I needed to highlight my point of view and a few others who were very unaware of what was going to happen next in the sequence.
Regards
Paul Y
No your right I wouldn’t suddenly stop if that was the scenario, I wasn’t after you punishing or removing anyone from the competition I just wanted your opinion on the matter which you have given, so thanks for all your responses I have taken them all on board.
Fair enough and I’m certainly not saying that you don’t have a point. Anyway isn’t all this what the competition is for – given every potential service a thorough examination? Definitely seems to be working!!
Absolutely think we need to find out all the pros and cons for every competitor, as we all know to become a successful tipster is very difficult so respect to all those having a go in the competition they certainly need thick skin when there on a losing streak, but when there winning there everyones best mate ha Don’t think I could do it
Aarau won 4-2 yesterday evening and a winner at last.
We move on now with the following and an update at 4.15pm
Czech Liga 1
FK Jablonec v Ceske Budejovic K.O. 2.00pm
15 pts win Jablonec at 5/11 Pinnacle
Running Total 012.17 pts
Running Total is -12.17 pts
Here we go again, why are a very few still intent on trying to show Karl what should be done as opposed to doing what Karl does? This is his system, not yours and if you wanted to push your ideas you should have entered the comp, then maybe see how many votes you would achieve. If you are not happy with Karl’s system fine, don’t use it and don’t vote for it, otherwise just let him continue. Follow his instructions, when end comes we will all be in a position to decide for ourselves!
However, it is a system that Karl has put on a public forum and wants to attract votes for. That implies that he wants people to develop opinions be they good or bad.
Peoples opinions will involve points such as what can be done better, whats to like and whats not too like. Matt has given his opinions. Are you saying we should all stop commenting on this competition?
I can have a view on the “X” Factor without being a competitor, why not the “T” Factor?
@bluiboy I don’t see your point no one that I can see from the posts have been pushing for Karl to change his system they are openly suggesting how the system is working for them or not as may be the case. I was a bit confused with the system which Matt has cleared up now, but we are all entitled to our opinions as systematic12 says. We are also entitled to constructive criticism or praise of any betting system, and not sure if you had noticed when Karl was doing very well he was getting very good feedback. I have another opinion I think Tottenham who are playing at home against Aston Villa will win today this is in no way me trying to tell Karl to change his selection to mine just my opinion and as Karl & Matt have openly said this is what the competition is all about I do believe you are missing the point .
@pyoung/Systematic12, fair comments from you both above about having opinions and feedback, which is good for all in this, but there seems to be a lot revolving around the system and the amount of points etc. to be placed, which is quite clear every time Karl gives his instructions. It is far simpler just to follow them than keep questioning them. Also the comparison to other systems seems irrelevant to me, but as you say we are all entitled to our opinions, this is mine and you have yours, which in hindsight (always a good thing) is not for me to say you shouldn’t post them here. I do agree that this forms a part of the competition and probably have missed the point, so will now just go a get an afternoon nap and come back later in a better frame of mind. Maybe I’m just hungry and need a Snickers!!
Fairplay to you Bluiboy for those comments. Though i think a Mars is better than a Snickers!!
As for members expressing their own views…
This is not a web page, where Karl’s daily bet(s) can be posted for ‘read only’ access, it is a forum, designed to permit and maybe encourage comment.
Surely good ideas develop better and more quickly by an exchange of views?
@Karl,
Well done, two in a row now, next target – back to 1 point.
M.
It took an 87th minute goal but FK Jablonec won 2/1 and that helps a bit further on the long road back.
The next match is as follows and there will be an update at 7.15pm
Belgium Jupiler League
Club Bruggge v Genk K.O. 5.00pm
11 pts win Club Brugge at 4/5 William Hill
Running Total -5.35pts
That was really unlucky. Brugge scores in the first half and Genk gets a red card, then in the second half Genk scores and the game ends with a tie. Football games have been really unpredictable lately…
A bit disappointing really with the last result, especially as Genk played most of the match with ten men, but we’ll keep battling with the following match and the next update at 10.30am in the morning.
Portugal Super Liga
Porto v Sporting Lisbon K.O. 8.00pm
15 pts win Porto at 3/5 Pinnacle
Running Total -16.35 pts
Apologies, the kick off is 8.45pm.
Karl
Porto won 2-0 last night to help improve things a little and move us one point down the staking plan.
There is nothing early for us and I’ll update at 4.30pm. In the meantime I’ll finalise the weekly figures and post them in due course.
Running Total -7.35 pts
Karl,
Sadly, I remain on 20pts, as I was unable to take art yesterday, but my bank is still OK & I am sticking with the system.
One thing – you didn’t answer my previous question. Is the staking plan extended as I asked i.e. …15-20-20A-20B-20C… etc? Clearly, I am now most definitely asking on a need-to-know basis.
Thanks
oops *part*
Hi Pete
Yes, the staking goes 20A, 20B, 20C etc. It’s designed to minimise losses when we hit a bad run. Thanks for your continued support, it is much appreciated. I’m absolutely certain this will turn round, I just hope I get the time.
Karl
Yeah, that’s something I was wondering about too- if you get to 20C on the staking plan for instance, surely the next step down should be to 20B? It will be very difficult to recover your losses otherwise.
My last match was Lokomotiv Moskow with 15pts stake and I skip the next 4 bets. After that I have a new start from yesterday evening with a Porto.
First I accept all loses from before and I start clean with 1pt (1pt=0.5% from my small betting bank).
Good luck!
Well a pretty desperate week and a fair bit of work needed to move back into a decent profit.
Figures for the week and overall are as follows:
Figures for the week were 139 points staked for a return of 99.53 and an ROI of -28%
Overall the figures are 379 points staked for a return of 371.65 and an ROI of -1.94
Strike rate is now 61%
Okay then, here we go.
Next Update at 10.30am tomorrow.
Argentina Primera B
Gimnasia La Plata v Almirante Brown K.O. 7.00pm
11 pts win Gimnasia at 7/9 Pinnacle
Running Total -7.35 pts
Last game we bet on Gimnasta La Plata, it was losing 0-1 at HT and won 3-1. Let’s hope it’s as exciting as the last one
Looks like they’ll have to do that again… Slightly strange selection this one, both teams have 4 draws in their last 5 so you’d say the stats point to that more than a home win. We shall see anyway.
0-2, then a red card followed by 0-3. That’s one crazy game for a team in 2nd place…
Back up to 15 then …….
Karl, maybe take a break? Rethink your selection strategy etc
wow… a curious choice there. Gotta wonder what the thought processes were behind choosing that as a game to bet on. Alarm bells were ringing before the game started judging by the messages following Karlo’s one.
How can you rely on a team’s form stats only 8 games into the season, with 20 teams in that league ? I would agree with howeyt that the strategy could do with a little refining…
Sorry – came across a bit scathing there. What I meant was that this is clearly a plan with a lot of potential. It seems well thought out, and the betting method works very effectively within the plan, but the selection process just needs a little tweaking is all.
You can never eliminate freak results, home teams with odds of 1.6 or less should win more often than not but as we have seen recently that hasnt been the case.
What do you base the selections on? Do you use current form and league position? Thats always my first starting point, but if a team has won 4 or 5 in succession when are they due a slip up?
What about team selection and formation? How do we know if a top striker is missing in one of these obscure matches.
Kettering on saturday started their match with just 10 players, alot of bookmakers missed that one and i managed to get 4/6 on the opposition.
What im trying to say is football has and always will be one of the hardest sports to ever bet on, there is no magic formula unfortunately, Karl isnt doing anything wrong selection wise its just an unfortunate run of poor results.
There’s not much to say about the match yesterday. A 3-0 defeat and a player sent off.
Today there is just one game as follows, with an 11.00am update tomorrow.
England Blue Square Premier
Dartford v Telford United K.O. 7.45
15 pts win Dartford at 9/11 Pinnacle
Running Total -18.35 pts
Stan… agree with you to a point, but the difference between a good plan and a great plan is the research. Looking at the last game – only 8 games into their season, and with both teams having 4 draws each in their last 5 games… not a game I would bet on. You clearly researched well with your Kettering game, but I feel that Karlos selection process isn’t as effective. The system has been going for over 2 months now, and is currently showing a loss !
In an ideal world, I would probably add your researching with his betting plan, and I reckon that results would be vastly improved.
I don’t want to shoot anyone down in flames, but just want to offer constructive criticism for the sake of all of our pockets – I want this plan to be profitable for all of us – only want to highlight areas that would improve the system.
Hmm, Dartford have won every home game apart from one but Telford have only lost one away game…
unfortunately the guide to how good a tipster is , is level staking and if they cant make profit to level staking they are in trouble. This staking plan is far more suited to 2.00 and above and. Really hope it turns round for Karl but this isnt a service to be paying for in the future.
@ztips… my thoughts exactly. I have never seen a progressive staking system that can turn a non LS successful betting strategy into a winning one yet… not criticism just fact
I dont agree Paganpriest & ztips, when you said only systems that make profits at level stake can make profits with progressive stakes. I have been using the full fibonacci for 3 years with a couple of other methods and have never had one losing sequence! Its all about using it with the right product or method that has sound stats to back to it. Even if i had 6 losing sequences i would still be in profit with the method i purchased! But its doubtful if thats going to happen if i’ve never had one in 3 years and 2 months. So its all about what you use it with and also if you dont mind the stakes you have to place the higher up the ladder you go. Correct money management is crucial and level stakes is wasted with some methods. Patience is the key and a willingness to accept short term losses for the long term gain.
@jayjay You seem to miss the point. A non LS staking method can indeed improve returns, but that depends on the success of the core system, which if proven at LS can then be improved upon staking wise. And as for your success so far, be assured … one day that losing sequence will happen and no matter the size of your bank, if it continues you will wipe out a hell of a lot quicker. Money management is certainly a key factor but so is common sense when staking.
No as stated, i’ve had no losing sequence in 38 months, my betting bank could now take 6 losing sequences and still be in profitnso i have the odds staked heavily in my favour and i dont mind if i get a losing sequence. In fact i wont lose now as i have already taken out 3 x my starting bank over that time. It all depends as you say on what you use it with. An extreme example to clarify my point; If you have a system that has not produced a losing run greater than 7 in 10 years, why waste it on level stakes? Yes of course you may get a losing sequence but its all about making enough over them years to absorb the loss. Its all about risk v reward. To say that progressive staking is the road to disaster is just lazy thinking in my opinion.
@jayjay.. if your method has produced no losing sequence in 38 months then why are you using a Fibonacci progression as surely you would be on 1 all the time which equates to LS. I am not saying that progressive staking is not a valued tool but stated that it’s success is dependent on the core strategy which should always be proven to LS. Just my opinion and no laziness involved with that thought at all
I think your a bit confused here Paganpriest?? I am not on stake ’1′ all the time as i do have losers at most up to 6 in a row so that would be bring me up to stake 8 in the fibonacci sequence using the double ’1′ as a start. So how is that level stakes? So i am not sure what you mean by been on stake 1 all the time. When i say i havent had a losing sequence i mean i havent gone all the way up to the top with the fibaoncca sequence. I always revert back to 1 after a winner.
Just to point out, the blurb at the top of this page states that selections “are always on the short side pricewise – between 1.5 and 2.0″ but 4 out of the last 10 selections have been shorter than 1.5, i.e. the system is differing from what was advertised.
To be fair Jgg321 i think that is probably the average price as Karl does give options on what stake is next if the last winner was priced between 1.01 – 1.74 @ bfsp.
jayjay- that is true to be fair. I think Karl might still be advised to steer clear of these extremely short-priced selections though as only 1 out of the last 5 has won, and obviously you’ll need a very good strike rate to make a profit on odds as short as that.
Wonderful, straight back up to 20pts it is then…
Come on Dartford…….glad im only paper trading……
Last two teams that we have bet against have score 7 goals, doesn’t bode well
Again, take a break , youre picking games everyday when theres no real bets there.
“Hi Mum. System broke. Send more money”
-33.35 points ….ouch…thats 66 points in 2 weeks … blimey !!
Pretty sure all followers have bust and/or no longer following, Id like to see more sensible selection/staking buts its not going to happen as Karl wont change anything.
All the best though.
@ howeyt. I agree with you, and of course Karl won`t change anything, it`s in the rules isn`t it? In his initial statement he says he hasn`t released his method of selection to anyone. Wouldn`t all of us keep our cards close to our chest if there`s a chance of making money from it? After all,that`s how most tipsters make money,except those that are salaried. I refer to post no.6 from the top of the page to Karl from Philbry at footballbettingprofits@hotmail.com on 2nd Aug. asking Karl to open dialogue with him to review and possibly promote Karls method for his newsletter and website. It`s called business. Now maybe the guy feels he`s under great pressure to produce fantastic results every time. In my line of work if I buy crap material to work with as there is no quality stuff available I produce crap at my cost. There`s no law to say you have to make a selection every day Karl if the quality aint there. Chin up.
I have followed closely for last 3week but your selections have lost all cred. You can never pull this back staking at these short odds.its a quick way to the poorhouse as they say
howeyt,
Nobody should have busted out because the bank size is 150 points but not following is fair enough. Just thought I’d point that out.
Another disappointing result last night as Telford won very comfortably.
Today is a very quiet day and there is nothing doing for us. I will be back online at 11.00am tomorrow.
Running Total -33.35 pts
@Twink1, course it could be turned around. You must remember it was these short prices that brought the bank up to +33 in profit, so why cant it happen again? Ok it may take time, but it can be done.
Matt, I agree with you, I just meant a majority wouldnt of used a 150 point bank (greed/bad money management) and so thats no fault of Karls.
Jayjay, yes we could reach +33 points again, that took 2 or 3 months and so to get back to that now would take 6 months. Whos to say another bad run in between.
Karls ignoring me and so I’ll say no more.
howeyt,
A winning sequence of 7 bets at around 1.5 could see us back to around break even fairly easily and in as little as 1 week, so 6 months to get back to + 30 is a little extreme, that’s what I think!
I do respect karl for posting his selections greatly that takes alot of guts and despite what has been said keeps his head which again i respect. Being a tipster is really hard and you cant please people all the time no matter how good or bad you maybe doing , I have found.I suspect if he used same theories he uses on the major leagues his results would pick up but plenty of games he picks are leagues best avoided long term. Obviously staking plans work but i am not a fan of the chasing mentality the way some of these plans look and this one described here getting scary for many. I havent done any and wouldnt but have watched with interest and do believe Karl has a great level headed attitude. Fingers crossed it improves i always want Tipsters to succeed being one as well.
With all the ideas being brought forward it would be nice if Matt would consider a forum area where we can perhaps bandy a few ideas around with like minded people rather than cluttering Karlos’s blog. What does anyone else think?
Thanks for all the comments which I find interesting and I’m not ignoring you howeyt
It’s hard at the moment. I’ve done this betting for a long while now and never experienced anything like this. But I do need to keep level headed and not panic and also keep going. I still have time before the next vote to pull a rabbit out of the hat and you never know.
A decent run of results is needed though, that’s for sure and this being an international week doesn’t help me at all. There are very few matches available and once again today there are no selections today. I’ll be back again at 11.00am tomorrow.
Many thanks to all for the continued discussion.
Running Total -33.35 pts
Bluiboy i think what Howeyt is trying to say is it took 2 months to get to +30 and all that was undone in 1 crazy week, so if Karl started picking up results it would take another 2 months to get even and then another 2 month to build up to +30 again 6 months in total agree with Howeyt as this would be without having a bad run inbetween.
Kindest Regards
Paul Y
Karl,
Keep the faith mate. There are some crazy results going on at the moment – I can see that from what is happening with other systems that I use as well.
In the face of all this “discussion”, plus this string of results, it would be easy to chase after some selections that you wouldn’t normally touch, so fair play to you for the way you’re keeping calm & not going with those “panic picks”.
…just as long as the next one wins – I AM on 20B, you know!
Actually bluiboy is right. Taking into account that next bet is 20pts, if there is a win streak of 6 games with an average of 1.5 odds per game, that would total 62pts in bets and 31pts profit, bringing the plan back to 1pt bets with running total of -2.35pts. Basically it would be back where it started in less than a week.
Thanks Johnye_pt, I thought for a moment I had forgot basic maths, I can’t work out why it should take 2 months to get back to even with a win run of 6/7 bets, so I will keep the faith, be positive and await Karl’s next selection.
The reason it took 2 months to get to 30 points is it started on 1 point. We are currently on 20 points, so a run of 6 at higher points equates to a much higher return thus taking it back down to even in a much shorter time, which basically is the fundamentals of this staking plan.
Yes you are right if you were to carry on at the dizzy heights of 20 points (A,B,C,D and all that rubbish) you could get back to nearly level stakes I was going off starting again, but i suppose you would carry on with where the system is at, at this moment in time. So if you had a good run and got back to level 1-2 weeks time, then you would be back to 1pt bets which even when Karl was doing well took 2 months to build to 30+. It now taken 2 months to get to the point we are at 1-2 week to get back level and then another 2 month to get back on track, 4.5 months then providing theres no blips. Sorry to sound pessimistic, but the system has lost -66pts in two weeks, might of been because of some freak results, but i just dont see how this system will recover in time. And for those still betting on this system Good luck is all i can say, because i feel they will need it to every make any money. I hope im proven wrong.
Kindest Regards
Paul Y
You are both right.
- A BIG losing streak will eventually deplete the bank;
- A winning streak when betting with high points quickly recovers the loss because each bet usually recovers the previous bet;
- A winning streak at 1pt bets gives a profit of about 0.5pts, it increases steadily but slowly.
But…
The REAL problem I see now is with the 20A, 20B, etc. Losing the 20 pts bet means 2.0 odds will be needed when betting 20A pts to cover the previous bet. If Karl used 35pts as the next step, 1.57 odds would cover the previous bet. Wasn’t that the logic for this plan in the first place?
Bottom line: whoever follows the plan above 20pts (20A, 20B, etc) will need a few months of profit to cover the losses…
stantheman,
I have spoken to Agora about a forum but at the moment it’s on the backburner as they take an awful lot of work to maintain (and we’re upgrading the site soon anyway).
I am open to setting up new pages and a seperate section of the site for discussion however. It would have to be in comment format like this but at least there would be some dedicated pages.
If people are interested, let me know of some page names e.g. system trials, and I’ll set up a few for you.
Matt
Thanks Matt for replying, a new page would be great but only if people like the idea
If this is not a forum then Matt then I apologise. I think that it`s not a bad idea having a dedicated forum but surely youd`e need one for every contestant and that would be costly….Karl seems to have the most feedback of all the contestants at the moment, and I follow them all. So really it`s down to a vote at the end of the day and how big your wallet is!!
If we had a separate forum page for Karl at least it would not clog his blog but it would have to be easily accessible. And I`m sure the other contestants would appreciate feedback too. I do enjoy the info in one place but if it were a separate forum then as stantheman said we can chuck ideas around.
It’s not a forum in terms of format pepston but comment away – the more the merrier as long as they’re constructive!
Sorry it’s all a bit cluttered but we are working on a big improvement to the site that will come in soon.
Thanks Matt. I don`t find Karls blog cluttered. In fact I quite enjoy the banter. Really informative. if it aint broke don`t fix it. Ta for the acca tomorrow by the way. oops.
Back in action today with just the one match and an update at 10.30am tomorrow.
Denmark Division 1
Viborg v AB K.O. 6.00pm
20 pts win Viborg at 4/7 B365 Pinnacle
Running Total -33.35 pts
AB Copenhagen only won 3 games in the last 20, one of them was against Viborg but they had the home advantage. Viborg’s won the last 4 home games against teams around the same position as AB Copenhagen, let’s see if they win 5 in a row
Just raising an issue about the staking plan after my query wasn’t answered last time. When we get to 20B, 20C etc and then have a winner, why is the next step on the staking plan 15? It doesn’t make sense to me; I can understand why you want to limit the highest possible stake to 20pts, but surely the next step from 20B should be 20A, 20C to 20B etc? Otherwise it defeats the point of progressive staking really- for example if you have 2 losses at 20A and 20B but then 20C wins at 3/4, you’ll still be down 25 points from those bets (plus 43pts down from the losing bets which let the system get to 20pts in the first place), and 15pt bets and lower aren’t going to make that up…
I agree with jgg321… but pure conjecture… who the hell wants to be staking 20pts a pop on a recovery mission.. not me for one!
Hi jgg321
You are quite correct in what you say. If it got so bad that we were on 20D then the next bet is either 20C or 20B depending on the price of the successful bet as outlined at the beginning.
I’m sorry if you had a query that wasn’t answered.I must have missed it for which I apologise. In fairness to me, there have been one heck of a lot of messages.
Thanks, I appreciate you’ll have had a lot on your plate with the amount of activity on this page recently. Hope we don’t get into that situation anyway!
Hmmmmm.
No posts since 5.13.
Is anyone still on here?
Im stiil here Addick just so you dont feel so lonley Ha!
20A it is then, Karlos doing really well in voting considering recent results obviously they have kept the faith in him with quite a few people backing him.
Not lonely, just curious at lack of comment during/after another losing selection. Maybe not so many followers now.
There had been 48 goals in Viborg’s 12 games b4 tonight but only 24 in AB’s, they had also only conceded 5 in 6 away games so appear difficult to score against.
I backed home @ evens @ HT and layed draw for same stake so if away won no loss, draw was only losing outcome, didn’t workout this time..
Was only messing about being Lonley I’m sure more comments will come. You can’t win them all Addick at least you didn’t have 20 points on it like some who are still following the system. All the best
Surprised there was a selection at all being international week.
well thats me done, strike rate has become embarassing, its really not that difficult to pick a home win at football, obviously stringing a sequence together more so but loss after loss cant all be put down to bad luck
Agreed
pyoung30,
I’m not that sensitive!
Been out all day, placed 2 bets @ Bath early, both won, 12.00 and 13.30, both singles..
Pl. dble I was looking at won and first 6 in pl. acc. all successful, have to run it live.
Having missed Maverick’s first 3 (successful) lays lost internet and with it 17.30 3pt lay, got on next 2 which both won then placed the 2 fball bets.
Could have been a cracking day and turned into a loser.
Roll on tomorrow!
-53.35..what has happened ??
The thing that puzzles me about football win systems, particularly ones that take in so many countries is how can the criteria (whatever that maybe) be applicable to each and everyone? And even if it is applicable, how can anyone check all these games (I know there are websites with data but nevertheless…) everyday? And having done that, how can anyone hope to have enough knowledge of, and to assess, local news of player form, injuries, suspensions, manager changes, pitches etc?
In the short term, it is possible to string together a series of good results and when someone is hot they are worth following but in the long term I am afraid it will be unsustainable.
Or am I missing something?
No, i think you pretty much nailed it DD. As i said in a earlier comment how can you ever get team news etc for some of these obscure league matches surely its nigh on impossible. Its best to look at stuff closer to home thats more readily checkable, take the England match last night it was totally unbackable right? wrong, they were paying evens that the 2 nd half would have more goals, quick check on betdevil revealed that SM conceded 2/3rds of total goals against in the 2nd half and they were always likely to get as many bodies as poss behind the ball to start with, easy money and there were loads like that last night.
I sincerely wish Karlos all the best though and hope he turns it around.
Why, I was wondering last night, would anyone ever vote for a service that has performed so miserably over the last two weeks. And then I thought of Eddie the Eagle, the worst and most embarrassing downhill skier that Britain has ever produced. So bad, that people fell in love with him and he became a celebrity.
Anyway, one thing is very clear and that is that I am going to have to produce the greatest downhill run of my tipping career if I am to stay in this.
We start at 12.00 and there will be an update at 2.15pm.
Norway Division 2
Birkebieneren v FK Tonsberg K.O. 12.00pm
20 pts win Birkebieneren at 21/20 Victor Chandler
Running Total -53.35 pts
Karl..Eddie the Eagle was a ski jumper…not a downhill skier..that was Graham Bell !! LOL
At last, a success, though we had to sweat for it. A 3-2 win but 12 minutes of stoppage time to suffer.
The next bet is as follows and there will be an update at 5.15pm
England League 1
Tranmere Rovers v Yeovil K.O. 3.00pm
15 pts win Tranmere at 8/11 Bl Sq 888Bet
Running Total -32.35 pts
Shouldnt the next bet be 20pts Karl?
Not at all. The last winner moved us down two steps. 20B to 20A to 15.
Hope that explains.
Karl
Ah i see but you were only on 20A so last win moved you to 20 then 15 (two steps, my apologises
Interesting game, Tranmere have conceded as many goals at home in first 30 minutes as in prev.450, Yeovil have scored their average 2 goals away against a team that have prev. given little away, entertaining!
A lay on the 1:2 score is still too high for me @ 6.8.
Have fun.
Addick, you on the Lab Form then?
howeyt,
no, interpreting Flashcsores data.
All to play for now, 2:2.
Is anyone running a book on whether there are more yellow cards or goals?
Currently 4:4
M.
Slight change of plan. Next update at 6.00pm.
Sorry.
Karl
Great stuff Karl, looks like Tranmere should get another win for you.
Only you know your system and if you have somehow found a genuine edge, I truly wish you great success.
Well done Karl,
Two on the bounce, remember when that was the norm?
Obviously not enough angst in the first match today, most considerate to find one with more entertainment value, angst on speed!
Home team come from behind to win 3:2
Cards won the match up with goals by a country mile, 7 yellow, incl. 1 in the 93rd minute and 1 red but only 5 goals.
I can’t wait to see what you find for us this evening but doubt if I would be watching TV if at home…
Well it was certainly interesting, but Tranmere came from 2-0 down to win 3-2.
One more match today and then back online by 11.00am tomorrow.
Belgium Division 2
Westerlo v Brussels K.O. 7.00pm
11 pts win Westerlo at 1/2 WHill
Running Total -21.40 pts
Hi Addick
It was the norm once and it will be again. It’s three in a row now so who knows. We’ll see what tomorrow brings. It’s a long haul back but you never know.
Congratulations Karl,
You must feel a whole lot better, three in a row.
Just hope the next batch of selections can win with a little less drama,
otherwise you may suffer a high mortality rate amongst your followers, not good for voting numbers.
Roll on tomorrow.
Hmmm… I am unable to look at the website & place any bets for a day or so, & Karl goes & gets 3 winners in a row. The evidence is mounting!
Anyone fancy paying me a retainer NOT to follow this system?
Westerlo left it late but they won 2-1 last night.
Today we have just one match and the next update (assuming I’m still here) will be at 1.00pm tomorrow.
Poland Liga 2
Flota Swinoujscie v Warta Poznan
8 pts win Flota at 8/11 Stan James WHill
Running Total -15.90 pts
Kick off at Flota is 11.00am
Says 11.30 on Betfair ?
Not again!!
Away team score first!
Flota’s odds right before HT were 4.0 and draw was 3.0. Betting 4pt each at that time would profit either 8pts or 4pts, as long as Warta doesn’t win the game. Paper trading is fun!
Well done Karl, 4 on the trot, given yourself the best chance.
Despite what I said yesterday about the anxiety level, when the away team score first it does offer much better value if you have the confidence to back the original selection.
I took 1.80 just after K.O. and topped up @ 2.80 at HT. I couldn’t follow match but expect you could have got around 3.80 @ 70 minutes.
Good luck with the vote.
M.
Yeah well done Karl. It really is amazing how tight your matches have been all the way through. You’d think there’d be a lot more easy 3 or 4 nil wins!
Flota Won 2-1 and once again the opposition scored first.
One match for later this afternoon and then an update at 18.30pm
Ukraine Persha League
Stal Alchevsk v FK Sumy
5 pts win Stal Alchevsk at 1/2 Sportingbet
Running total -10.08
Weekly figures shortly.
I just hope we’ve turned the corner now and we can get back to business as normal. Figures for the week and overall are as follows:
Week 11 100 points staked return 97.22 -2.86 ROI
Total 479 points staked return 468.87 -2.16 ROI
This match K.O is 16.00.
My view on Oddschecker shows no Bookies offering this match, only Betfair; there is no liqidity, only £1,418.00 matched on event and best price 1.43 available.
Can anybody do better?
There were 2 listings for the match on Oddschecker for some reason, one which only showed the exchanges and the other which only showed bookies. 4/9 was widely available with 1/2 at SportingBet. The game is still 0-0 after about 70 minutes anyway so if you missed it you might not be too disappointed.
2 – 0 now!
As I wrote that comment Stal scored in the 68th minute and made it 2-0 two minutes later, got them moving.
jgg321,
Thanks for that, I thought there was a problem with their site, found the two pages in the ‘drop down’ just before they cleared it.
I took the 1.42 on Bfair just before K.O.
I was toying with laying the draw to cover my stake when the first goal went in, 3:1 now, so all is well.
2-1 up to the last minutes just to keep it interesting, then a 3rd goal to close it up
Stal Won 3-1 this afternoon with late goals just to keep us sweating.
Thanks to those who voted for me and somehow kept me in this competition.
We have a match tonight and then an update in the morning at 11.00am
England League 2
Port Vale v Oxford K.O. 7.45pm
3 pts win Port Vale at 13/15 Pinnacle 188Bet
Running Totalb -7.58pts
Karl at the end of the competition you should review your sequence plan and eliminate those 20A 20B, etc. If you used the original Fibonacci sequence you would be back in profit right now. You could start with 1,2,3,5,8 instead of 1,1,2,3,5,8 but the rest of the numbers should be from the Fibonacci sequence.
That means a starting bank of 150 points would survive a bad streak of 9 matches, the 9th match stake being 55 points.
And maybe try other markets with 2 outcomes to decrease the risk, like over/under 2.5 goals or some other kind of bets.
What do you think?
At last!
A game to enjoy (on Sky Sports One) without the anxiety levels!
Currently 3:0
M.
Thanks johnye
I am aware that the current staking plan has proved disappointing and I take your comments on board along with some others over the last couple of weeks. Obviously I can’t change now but at the end of the competition I will make some changes that should benefit everyone.
At least we’re winning again.
Addick, you must be disappointed that you didn’t get stressed out tonight. Sorry, I’ll try and make the next game more exciting!!
Karl, well done for getting back on track.
I have to ask though, as someone already asked before, when using obscure leagues with teams no-one has heard of or can pronounce, how do you check for injuries, suspensions, manager changes, derby matches and so on.
All those things have an impact, and thats before we even talk about corruption at the lower leagues in these small countries.
Hi howeyt
Good questions and let me assure you that all of what you mention is checked and the information is available online. It’s a matter of knowing where to look. I’m not sure I agree with you about corruption though. Football is monitored extremely well for things like this. Over the last few years the major corruptiion has occured in countries such as Italy. At the end of the day there really is no way of knowing though and you just have to take it on trust.
A good result for Port Vale last night and that takes us back to 1 point, though we have (well, I have) managed to wipe out the hard earned profit.
We move on now and let’s hope we can reach previous profit levels.
Just one match today and back at 11.00am tomorrow.
England Blue Square North
Halifax Town v Vauxhall Motors K.O. 7.45pm
1 pt win Halifax at 3/5 Victor Chandler
Running Total -4.98pts
Good recovery Karl, as you say still a long way to go to build upto +33 points like last time, maybe this time if you reach that again take half out and carry on with the rest!
Today’s match now postponed, I presume we won’t be having another selection..?
Yes, well done on getting back to 1pt, Karl. The staking plan hasn’t really done the job though, I started about at the beginning of the poor run and despite the recent upturn in fortunes I’m still around 45pts down, which will take a long time to recover with 1pt bets. I can understand why you don’t want to use the Fibonacci sequence as when you get to 55pts that can be a bit scary but something needs to be changed, perhaps to do with the really short priced selections- these could either be avoided completely (from the limited data I have the strike rate for selections shorter than 1.5 is actually worse than for longer-priced selections) or perhaps winning selections at less than 1.5 should not result in a move down the sequence. Just my thoughts anyway.
Last nights match was postponed but we stay in the same league for todays game. It’s the only one today so the next update will be tomorrow at 11.00am
England
Blue Square North
Chester City v Bradford Park Avenue K.O. 7.45pm
1 pt win Chester at 7/10 Victor Chandler 188Bet
Running Total -4.98 pts
Just been checking my results and the running total is actualy -5.03. An error of 0.05. Aplogies.
Karl
Chester could only manage a draw last night so the next bet is 3 pts. Not today though. There is very little football anywhere and nothing of any interest for us.
I’ll be back at 11.00am on Friday.
Running Total -5.98pts
We start in Poland late this afternoon with an update to follow at 7.15pm
Poland Ekstraklasa
Gornik Zabrze v Korona K.O.5.00pm
3 pts win Gornik at 17/20 WHill
Running Total -5.98 pts
Gornik Zabrze won comfortably, going 2-0 up at half time and keeping it like that.
There is nothing further today but I will be online at 10.30am tomorrow with a view to playing in an 11.00am kick off.
Running total -3.43 pts
We start today as follows, with an update at 2.15pm
Norway Division 2
Follo v Kvik Halden
1 pt win Follo at 11/20 B365
Running Total -3.43pts
Follo went a goal down but eventually Won 2-1.
We move on now with the following match and an update at 5.00pm
England League 2
Gillingham v Burton Albion
1 pt win Gillingham at 4/6 BFred BlSq 888 Lads
Running Total -2.88pts
Gillingham Won 4-1 for us and that is it for today.
I’ll be back online at 10.30am tomorrow.
Running Total -2.21 pts
Its seems awfully quiet on here lately, 8 posts from Karl all in a row and no others. Just want to say, well done Karl, you have gone from -33.5 points on 12/10 to -2.21 points today, that’s over 30 points back in 9 days (less than 2 weeks)and looking strong. I know you are back to 1 point bets and so going forward may be slow, but at least we are moving in the right direction.
It seems that the number of comments is inversely proportional to the number of winners, so I’m keeping quiet! Keep this run up, Karl.
Nice one. Good bet that.
Thanks Bluiboy. Let’s hope it continues.
Good idea jgg. Let’s just keep quiet and see what happens.Pepston, it was a good bet. Gillingham are a very good side and I’ll take a few more prices like that for them.
Here we go then for the start of what could be a busy Sunday. Update at 2.00pm
Denmark Division 2 East
Nordvest v Svebolle K.O. 12.00pm
1 pt win Nordvest at 8/15 Paddy Power
Running Total -2.21pts
I agree most of the comments appeared during the losing streak. In my case I practically stopped commenting when I left the system (around my first and only 11pts bet) but I’ve been following the comments anyway, and even betting once in a while. The method would be in profit right now if Karl hadn’t stagnated the sequence at 20 (20A/B/etc), but I guess that will be something he will have to review after the competition is over.
All it matters now is to get back into the competition with a good winning streak!
Nordvest Won 1-0 and we now move on to our next match which is the last today and the next update at 1.00pm tomorrow.
Turkey League 1
Rizespor v Denizlispor
1 pt win Rizespor at 20/21 Stan James
Running Total -1.73 pts
Kick Off in the above match is 5.00pm
Okay then, we ended up with a goalless draw for the week.
Figures updated are as follows:
Rather better this week, though still a long way to go.
16 points staked returned 23.4 for an ROI of 46.25%
Overall:
495 points staked return 492.27 for an ROI of -0.55%
Overall there have been 130 bets with 80 winners and the strike rate is 61.5%
Nothing doing today. I’ll be back online at 10.30am tomorrow when there looks to be quite a lot of action.
It’s not going to be as busy today as I initially thought and we have just the one match. The next update will be 11.00am tomorrow.
England Championship
Leeds United v Charlton Athletic
3 pts win Leeds at 10/11 BFred Lads WHill Pinnacle (plus others)
Running Total -2.73 pts
Blimey Karl!
I’ve been a Leeds fan(*) since Norman Hunter was scaring dinosaurs. I know their form’s picked up recently, but I take it you’re aware of their long running “midweek games are a nightmare” scenario?!
They should win though (that’s the fan talking)
Pete
(*) or is that “vile animal”, as Dave Jones would have it?
Karl,
Well, I did say… pity I didn’t follow my own instincts & allowed the “fan” side to take control!
In case you’re interested, Leeds have now failed to win their last 12 league matches midweek – a well known & extremely irritating stat that Colin(*) is well aware of. Their last victory was on 2nd Jan this year, & even that was a bank holiday Monday, so doesn’t count really!
…maybe next time.
Pete
(*)Neil Warnock, for the uninitiated
Surprisingly there is nothing doing today as no games match the criteria. A pity about Leeds last night. They scored first but could only draw.
Back in the morning at 10.309am.
Running Total -5.73 pts
As an Addick (Charlton fan for those that don’t know)
I skipped this one. Their away form is not bad this year but nowhere near last season when they were outstanding away from The Valley.
M.
The one time I want Dirty Leeds to win…
is anyone else having a problem with these pages
very slow loading over the last couple of days?
Karl,I did have data on the outcome if backing your games at half time if its a draw and the favourite has gone out in price. From memory if was going well and it looks pretty good although i have now lost it due to my laptop going bonkers on me! Of course if the outsider was winning i would leave the game alone as them games usually went onto to be a draw or the outsider winning so it saved me many big stakes. Food for thought?
Definitely food for thoight jayjay. I’ll monitor it.
A typical Thursday really with not too much happening. Just one game and then an update at 10.30am tomorrow.
Europa League
Sparta Prague v Hapoel Kiryat Shmona K.O. 6.00pm
5 pts win Sparta Prague at 7/15 32red
Running total -5.73 pts
Addick, surely you were aware though, that your boys haven’t lost at Elland Road in the last (I think) 5 visits? I should have followed your example though, I’m usually reluctant to bet on my own team – I’m grumpy enough if they lose even without betting on it!
jgg321, you need to keep up with the times! “Dirty Leeds” was in vented by the London based press in the 70s, largely out of jealousy. We are now “vile animals” apparently – name invented by a bloke I used to have some respect for, but now deals in soundbites that he ought to know better before uttering, given his background. Looks like he also ought to be concentrating on his own team a bit more.
You’re still Dirty Leeds, and some of your fans certainly fit the description Dave Jones gave I’m afraid, as emotional as he was at the time.
Well done Karl, stopped the stakes rising up again nicely.
Sparta Prague Won 3-1 last night and the result was really never in doubt.
Just one match today as follows and then I’ll be back at 10.30am tomorrow for what will probably be our usual busy Saturday.
Sweden Allsvenskan
Malmo v Djurgaarden
3 pts win Malmo at 1.41 Betfair
Running Total -3.4
jgg321, couldn’t agree more, & I certainly wouldn’t make any excuses for them whatsoever. But the key word is “some” not “all”, as Mr Jones would have it. Then again, show me any club above a certain size (i.e. big enough crowds to hide in) that says it doesn’t have SOME fans like this, & I’ll show you a club in denial.
Anyway, I sense I may be in danger of getting us off topic here, so I’ll stop. Let’s hope Sven’s old mates can put a smaile on our faces tonight.
I know, it wasn’t the most reasoned (or reasonable) comment from Jones by any means.
oops *smile*
Norman Hunter, eh? I go as far back as the one and only John Charles and Albert Johannsen, does that make me the grandad of Betting Rant I wonder.
Malmo Won 3-1 last night and it’s back to 1 point for the next bet.
I’m not able to update today so below are todays matches. The staking method is well known by now and let’s hope for a good day.
Singapore S League
Albirex Niigata v Young Lions K.O. 12.45pm
1 pt win Albirex at 10/21 BWin
Enland Premier League
Arsenal v QPR K.O. 3.00pm
?pts win Arsenal at 4/9 VC
Poland Liga 1
Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia K.O. 5.00pm
?pts win Lech Poznan at 4/7 B365 SpBet BlSq PP SJ
France Le Championnat
Toulouse v Stade Brest K.O. 7.00pm
?pts win Toulouse at 1/2 VC PP SJ Lads WHill
That’s it then for a busy day. Good luck to everyone.
Running Total -2.23 pts
For those not paying attention:
Singapore S League
Albirex Niigata v Young Lions K.O. 12.45pm
1 pt win Albirex at 10/21 BWin
The match ended in a draw (2-2), next bet 3pts
England Premier League
Arsenal v QPR K.O. 3.00pm
3 pts win Arsenal at 4/9 VC
Arsenal won (1-0), next bet back to 1pt
Poland Liga 1
Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia K.O. 5.00pm
1 pt win Lech Poznan at 4/7 B365 SpBet BlSq PP SJ
Lech lost (0-2), next bet 3pts once again
France Le Championnat
Toulouse v Stade Brest K.O. 7.00pm
3 pts win Toulouse at 1/2 VC PP SJ Lads WHill
I think this is it for me. We recovered partially from the awful run with 9 winners out of 10 but the inconsistency seems to be back now with 4 losers out of the last 6, and the prices are getting shorter and shorter too- only 2 out of the last 8 have been over 1.6. You’d need a very high strike rate to be at profitable at that level (it’s been 43% in the last month), and a very long winning run for me to recover my losses- I’m not convinced it’s going to happen. Good luck anyway.
jgg321
The last six bets have produced four winning ones not losing ones. Sure, the prices have been on the short side but that was fully explained at the start of this competition. Today saw a profit of 0.83 pts. I accept there was a bad run – it does happen, but those losses were pulled back, if not the profit. I fully realise the staking plan needs looking at. Taking a long term view I know that this service works. I am bewildered why you say ‘I think this is it for me’ when we have made a profit on the day.
My comment was posted before the Toulouse game, if you’d looked at the timestamp you’d have known that. I’d actually missed the Malmo game from my records so apologies for that but still only 3 of the previous 6 selections had been winners. You said at the start of the competition that selections “are always on the short side pricewise – between 1.5 and 2.0″ which is fair enough, but the average odds for the selections in the last week is 1.54, which is much shorter than that suggests and much shorter than previously in the competition. As I said before, you’ll need a very high strike rate (nearly 67%) to acheive profitability at that level- even when you were 30pts up your strike rate was only in the early 60s. The losses weren’t pulled back btw, I’ve followed all your tips for just over a month and I’m 54pts down. I think my comments were fair and constructive, I explained quite clearly why I’m no longer going to follow the service. As I said before, I wish you good luck nonetheless, I’ll be very pleased to be proven wrong but I’ll be focusing my attentions elsewhere for now.
Hello Karlos
Re: jgg321
I think this falls into the category of
you can please some of the people some of the time
You can please mostof the people all of the time
BUT you cannot please all of the people all of the time!
jgg321 fits the last category probably. It’s the top two categories you have to concern yourself with and they are basically happy
Like me! Keep up the good work.
Roger
Thanks for that meaningless comment. If you’re happy with a service that’s losing you money atm that’s fine…
Good morning and welcome to what should be another busy day. We ended up 0.83 pts up yesterday with two wins from the four matches. The first match today ia as follows and I’ll update at 1.15pm
Spain Segunda B
Hospitalet v Atletico Baleares K.O. 11.00am
1 pt win Hospitalet at 11/17 188Bet
Running Total -1.4pts
Hospitalet disappointed, losing 1-0. Straight into action now as below and the next update at 3.30pm.
Poland Liga 1
Slask Wroclaw v Zaglebie Lubin K.O. 1.30pm
3 pts win Slask Wroclaw at 11/14 Pinnacle
Running Total -2.4pts
A bit disappointing with that last result but we move quickly on with the followuing and an update at 6.15pm
Spain La Liga Segunda B
Cartagena v Arroyo K.O. 4.00pm
5 pts win Cartagena at 9/20 VC
Running total -5.4pts
Actually take the 8/15 which is readily available with BlSq SpBet 888
Not exactly going to plan today but we’ll do one mopre match and I’ll be back at 10.30am tomorrow.
Italy Serie A
Napoli v Chievo K.O. 7.45pm
8 pts win Napoli at 11/21 Pinnacle
Running Total – 10.4 pts
Napoli Won 1-0 last night and we move back to 5 pts for tonight for the only match of the day.
Back online at 10.30am tomorrow. Weeks figures will be posted later.
Sweden Superettan
Hammarby v Trelleborg FF K.O. 6.00pm
5 pts win Hammarby at 6/7 32Red
Running Total -6.21
Last week was not one of my better ones and the figures are as follows:
Week – 36 points return 32.52 -9.66 ROI
Competition – 531 points staked return 524.79 -1.17 ROI
Win Percentage 85/142 59.86%
A disappointing 0-0 draw last night. Sorry for the late message today.
Just the one match as follows and an update at 10.30am tomorrow.
England Blue Square South
Salisbury v Hayes and Yeading
8 pts win Salisbury at 30/29 188Bet
Running Total -11.21 pts
The table has been updated (sorry about the delay). Quite a battle between the top two!
http://www.bettingrant.co.uk/the-t-factor-table-talk-4595
Salisbury Won 2-0 last night and it was a good, profitable result for us.
That takes us back to 3 pts for the next bet. There is nothing early but I’m going through tonights mastches now and will be back within the hour.
Running Total -2.94 pts
We move on to Belgium for our only game today. Next update at 10.30am tomorrow.
Belgium Jupiler League
Lokeren v Waasland-Beveren K.O. 8.30pm
3 pts win Lokeren at 8/15 at B365 BWin WHill
Running Total -2.94 pts
Karl is at it again! winding up the anxiety levels!
No goals for 87 minutes, then the home team deliver what is needed,
two goals in two minutes, phew!
M.
Lokeren Won 2-0 last night though it took two late goals (87th and 91st minutes) Still that takes us back to 1 pt on the betting scale and now I need to perform if I’m to stay in this competition.
Nothing doing today though and I’ll be back at 10.30am tomorrow.
Running Total -1.34 pts
The first match today is as follows and the next update will be at 2.30pm
Singapore S League
Tampines Rovers v FC Harimau Muda K.O. 12.15pm
1 pt win Tampines at 1/2 BSports BWin SJames
Running Total -1.34 pts
Tampines Won 1-0 this lunchtime and we move on now with the next bet and a final update at 7.15pm
Poland Ekstraklasa
Gornik Zabrze v GKS Belchatow K.O. 5.00pm
1 pt win Gornik at 2/5 BlSq Cor
Running Total -0.84pts
Gornik Zabrze Won 2-0 this evening. One more match and then the next update at 10.30am tomorrow.
Germany Budesliga
Eintracht Frankfurt v Greuther Furth
i pt win Eintracht at 8/13 Tote BFred BWin Coral
Running Total -0.44 pts
Sorry, that is of course 1 pt win
A 1-1 draw last night was disappointing. We start today this afdternoon with an update at 5.00pm.
England Premiership
Tottenham Hotspur v Wigan Athletic
3 pts win Tottenham at 8/15 VC WH Pinnacle
Running Total -1.44 pts
Wigan Won 1-0 so onwards we go. Next update at 10.30am tomorrow.
Austria Bundesliga
Salzburg v Admira Wacker K.O. 5.30pm
5 pts win Salzburg at 4/9 B365 VC Coral
Running Total -4.44 pts
Salzburg Won 5-0 for us last night. We have our first match this morning with the next update at 2.00pm
Russia Premier Division
Anzhi Makhachkala v Terek Grozny K.O. 11.45 am
3 pts win Anzhi at 5/8 188Bet
Running Total -2.22 pts
Anzhi Won 3-1 this lunchtime and that takes us back to 1 point on the staking plan.
Next match as follows with the next update at 5.15pm
Austria Bundesliga
FK Austria Vienna v Ried K.O. 3.00pm
1 pt win Austria Vienna at 4/7 B365 BlSq PP 888 WHill
Running Total -0.34 pts
Vienna Won 6-1 and (I’ll say this very quietly) that moved us back into profit and now we can move forward again after that dreadful two week spell.
There’s nothing further tonight so I’ll be back online at 10.30am tomorrow.
Running total +0.23 pts
Right then, a look at the week just gone. It’s pleasing to report that we are back in profit (tiny though it might be) for the first time since October 4th. And when you consider that on October 12th we were showing a loss of 53.35 pts on the bets that in fact does show a considerable turn around in our fortunes. On September 29th we were on a profit high of 34.48 pts and it was from there that things went badly wrong as we lost over 80 pts. Not the ideal time for my service to encounter that problem.
Anyway the past week saw 10 bets and seven winners. We staked 31 pts for a return of 37.43 pts and an ROI of 20.74%
The overall figures show 562 points staked for a return of 562.22 pts and an overall ROI of +0.04% Ninety two winners from one hundred and fifty two bets produce a strike rate of 60.52%
Let’s now build on this. Bsck in the morning.
Just one game for us tonight with the next update at 10.30am tomorrow.
Germany Bundesliga 2
Kaiserslautern v Erzgebirge K.O. 7.15pm
1 pt win Kaiserslautern at 11/21 Pinnacle
Running Total +0.23pts
Kaiserslautern Won 4-1 last night and we aim to keep the recent run going with the following match and the next update at 10.30am tomorrow.
England League 2
Gillingham v Cheltenham K.O. 7.45 pm
1 pt win Gillingham at 5/6 Tote SpOdds PP BFred Cor WHill
Running Total +0.75pts
Gillingham could only manage a goalless draw last night and we dropped one point.
Just one game today and back online at 10.30am tomorrow.
Enland League One
MK Dons v Leyton Orient
3 pts win MK Dons at 1/2 VC BlSq 888 Lads Cor
Running Total -0.25 pts
MK Dons Won 1-0 last night and it’s back to 1 point for the next bet.
Unfortunately there is nothing to match our criteria today and therefore no bet. Back tomorrow at 10.30am
Running Total +1.25 pts
Back in action this evening with the following two matches. The staking you know well enough by now.
France Ligue 2
Nantes v Chateauroux K.O. 5.45pm
1 pt win Nantes at 7/9 Pinnacle
Spain La Liga Primera
Real Betis v Granada K.O. 8.30pm
? win Real Betis at 5/6 Coral WHill
Running Total +1.25 pts
Just thought I’d say well done on getting back into profit Karl. A lot of people would have crumbled under the pressure.
Quarter-final voting is now open:
http://www.bettingrant.co.uk/the-t-factor-vote-now-quarter-final-7293
Thanks Matt. Really appreciate the comment and hopefully I can move forward again now.
Both results were disappointing yesterday and we move on today looking to pull the points back. As requestyed on a number of occasions, all the matches for today are here with the next update at 10.30am tomorrow.
England Blue Square Premier
Wrexham v Hereford K.O. 1.00pm
5 pts win Wrexham at 8/11 Coral
England League 1
Yeovil v Hartlepool K.O. 3.00pm
? pts win Yeovil at 17/20 Bl Sq 888
Spain La Liga
Malaga v Real Sociedad K.O. 9.00pm
? pts win Malaga at 8/13 Lads
Running Total -2.75 pts
Wrexham lost (1-2) but we recovered well with Yeovil (1-0) only for Malaga to turn in a wretched performance against Real Sociedad.
So onwards we go with the following match and an update at 1.30pm
Slovakia Corgon Liga
Zilina v Trencin K.O. 11.30am
5 pts win Zilina at 8/13 Pinnacle
Running Total -3.95
No joy with Zilina and we move quickly on with the next update at 4.00pm
Belgium League 2
Oostende v Tubize K.O. 2.00pm
8 pts win Oostende at 4/5 BFred Vc SJ Spbet
Running Total – 8.95 pts
oostende Won 2-1 this afternoon, coming from a goal behind, which often seems the case with the selections. Still, those who play in running will be quids in yet again.
Our next match takes us to Belgium again with a final update on the day at 7.15pm
Belgium League 2
White Star Woluwe v FC Brussels
3 pts win White Star at 7/12 Pinnacle
Running Total -2.55 pts
Kick Off is 5.00pm by the way.
Woluve Won 4-1 for us and we finish the day in Ecuador with the next update at 10.30am tomorrow. Mind you, that depends whether I’m still here or not and at the moment it’s not looking too good.
If you’re a fan and want to build up your bank again after that dreadful run we endured then get your vote in.
Anyway, here goes:
Ecuador Primera A
Barcelona (Ecu) v LDU de Quito
1 pt win Barcelona at 5/6 BlSq PP 888
Running Total -0.8 pts
Kick off is 10.00pm
Well, if this is your final bet I’m going out with a bang! 1pt over 0.5 goals HT at 2.62, 1pt over 2.5 goals FT at 3.00, 1pt to win at 1.90.
Already won first bet and Barcelona is winning, let’s hope for at least two more goals!
I got 2 out of 3 with a profit of 1.52pt. Karl I wish you the best of luck in your future endeavors
Thanks johnye_pt
Barcelona (ECU) Won 1-0 last night and as I’m still here at the moment I might as well put up the latest figures and todays bet.
Week 15 42 points staked return 41.8 -0.48ROI
Total 604 pts staked return 604.02 +0.003 ROI
Win Percentage 98/164 59.76%
Today, the first bet is as follows. Update at 3.45pm
Russia Division 1 Ural v Nalchik K.O. 1.30pm
1 pt win Ural at 1/2 W Hill
Running Total +0.83 pts
Hi Karl,
I need to update the table but given the vote result and how far off 3rd you were at the last table update, it looks like this may be the end.
I’d just like to say thank you for your fantastic efforts throughout the competition and very well done for keeping your head during that awful run – to get back into profit deserves plenty of respect.
You’re more than welcome to apply again next year (assuming there is a next year) and drop me an email if/when you want resume system reviewing duty.
Cheers,
Matt
Hello Karl,
All I can say is fair play for persevering and keeping the faith.
But when it come down to the hard facts, when you stake 604 pts and only make 0.83 pts profit, you really need to take a break and look at your selection process, I’m still not convinced you look any deeper than league table and current form, but I may be wrong. Id love to know where you get your team news on some of the obscure leagues and teams.
Also the un-doing of the profits has been the low odds and mad staking system, you should check your P&L with level stakes over the last 3 months.
All the best, dont give up.
I’d like to wish Karl good luck too, though I stand by my earlier comments when I stopped following and I’m glad I did then. Perhaps with a bit of analysis about which bit have been working well and which less so, and with a few modifications to the staking plan this could be profitable in the future.
Okay then, so that’s me finished. Thanks to everyone who supported me and for over 700 comments made during the course of this journey. I’ve loved every minute of it and I’ll be working to improve the system and hopefully I’ll be back in the future.
Good luck to those remaining in the competition and also to those of you following the selections.
Well what can i say, its been a rollercoaster Karl! I’ve been following you from the start but unfortunately got my fingers burnt during the bad run (perhaps the spat with Snowflake came back to haunt me).
I always thought you were on to something with your staking plan but as others have said not so much with the selection criterior.
I am now using the staking plan but on the 2.5 goals market with a rigid selection policy – not as many games during the week but success so far.
I hope you manage to perfect your system and return to the competition in the future.
Rob
Hi Rob
Thanks for the comments and good luck with your 2.5 goals bets. I’ll be back, that’s for sure.
Thank’s for all your efforts Karl, I thought you had something but could not keep up with the losses and had to bail out early October.
Stick with it and a few tweaks you never know.
Best of Luck.