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You mention placing bets at the best available price on oddschecker. Have you done any comparisons as to whether returns would be higher taking BSP?
Looking at every runner on the flat since the beginning of last year, if you’d backed each one within odds ranges here are the losses on your stakes if backing at SP and BSP:
4/1 or shorter: SP -10%, BSP -5%
between 4/1 and 9/1: SP -15%, BSP -5%
10/1 to 14/1: SP -18%, BSP 0
15/1 to 25/1: SP -28.5%, BSP -3%
above 25/1: SP -57.5%, BSP -18%
It’s clear that the bigger the price, the bigger the difference between the bookies SP and Betfair’s. The majority of our bets will be towards the lower end (Sunday’s odds are higher than we’ll average over the season)so will be in the ranges where there isn’t as much difference between the two SPs.
The relevance of this is that backing BOG on drifters isn’t going to have a huge difference between the prices. But, when a horse goes off at a shorter price than it was the night before then we’ll be on the better price. (2nd point coming up, out of space in message)
The 2nd point is the obvious one that shorter priced horses win more often than bigger priced horses. Ten of thousands of results show that horses with a BSP of evens do win close to half the time, 3/1 around 25% of the time and so on.
Because of this, if you back a horse at an early price of 9/1 and it goes off at 4/1 then it’s likely to win 20% of the time whereas if it goes off at double the price then the market is saying it only has a 5% chance.
Clearly horses that go off at 4/1 win a lot more often than those at 20/1 and although the BSP is going to beat the BOG price on those drifters, they are going to win less often than the steamers who have given us a better early price.
Hope that helps explain my logic in saying that. I’d certainly rather be on the early prices with the shorter odds selections, but if you do want to use BSP sometimes then it’s probably going to be best used with higher odds selections when the difference between bookie and exchange prices are bigger.
Hi Mike, I would like to know if you have stats for the places of your selections. I am a regular user of the place markets on Betfair and I am quite happy to use high stakes for a small return. Would like to know your views on this please
Yes, I do have place stats but they’ll need a bit of playing with to make them digestible. I’ll have a tinker and should be able to get something up for you possibly a bit later today or if not then definitely tomorrow.
John, here are the 2015 stats for place only in 2015, system by system using BSP.
System, Place %, Profit
1, 56, 15
2, 54, 8
3, 46, 7
4, 55, 12
5, 54, 3
6, 45, 19
7, 62, 11
8, 81, 4
9, 47, 10
10, 80, 6
11a, 53, 1
11b, 65, 12
12, 77, 14
Hi Mike, I too use the place markets on betfair. On the above comment, could you please confirm if the 3rd column is the points profit i.e. the first entry is 56% of selections are placed with a 15 point profit, or is the 15 the percentage profit of turnover.Looking at the figure a place percentage of over 50% looks very interesting.
Yes, it is the points profit, but the same caveats discussed in the Intro need to be applied and for those reasons I wouldn’t expect an exact replication. That said, I do expect an edge on the win market to apply to some extent on the place market but I’d expect the most profitable route to be backing to win, if able to handle a lower strike-rate.
The only other thought is that the odds on the tiny number of bets so far will prove to be higher than the average we’ll have through the season and the place figures will be bolstered by many at relatively low odds.
It’s up to you about how you use the selections and info and the way you’re most comfortable, but I’d be interested to hear how you get on with any other approach to the one advised.
what has been the longest losing run
George, I’ll have to get back to you on this hopefully early in the week because I have all the systems filed separately rather than in one whole list.
FAO George Cowan,
Longest losing/winning runs
5) unsure due to different strands
11) unsure due to different strands
I joined at end April but stopped betting as the results weren’t promising. Have the systems stabilised and do you have tabulated results for 2016?
All the results are on the Selections and Results page, individually next to each selection, weekly summaries each week between Sun and Mon selections and monthly figures for each system between the end and beginning of months, although I’ll try and make that fortnightly from here on in. The last 8 weeks have been +6, -6, +6, +3, +20, -4, +2 and this one is currently up 3 or 4 so, yep, stable.
I am new to Betfair and for your tips do I use Exchange or Sportsbook?
Then Do I use the price or the SP for better price?
The Sportsbook is Betfair’s traditional bookmaker side whereas the exchange is you or I matching another punters back or lay. For our purposes, the two big differences are that with the Sportsbook and many other bookies, you’ll get Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) so if the Starting Price is higher you’ll get the better price whereas on the exchange you’ll be stuck with that price. The other is that the night before the exchanges may not have had much activity so you may not be able to get as good a price.
Overall, if you can I’d recommend having accouts with as many bookies as possible to spread your bets and be able to get the best price most often. There’ll be more on this in an email next week.
Thank you Miles. At the moment I cannot afford multi accounts. Ken
I put E/W on my bet and did not get much return for my effort considering they came second. All bets were greater than 5/1
Is it worth doing E/W for what it costs?
There seems to be plenty of debate comparing BOG to Betfair SP
Would you say that there is a (rough) point at which it would be worth taking a chance on BFSP as opposed to taking BOG as i often seem to miss the prices you quote on your pages – i suppose it depends very much on whether the selection drifts or not
It’d be interesting to hear how anybody else is getting on with the prices.
I must say that the email being sent first before the prices are added, normally gives 30 to 45 minutes which is probably unique for a service and they’re sent when they are so that all bookies, or almost all, have prices available.
I find some prices get slightly trimmed in the evening but most movement occurs roughly 8.30 to 10.30 in the morning and then again shortly before the off. My guess is that if you’re taking the best price within 14 hours of the email there won’t be much change most of the time, with the only occasional major exception. Slemy today was a good example- available at odds of 11 last night and still available 14 hours later in some places before shortening in the day (there’s a 1.5point deduction to knock off but it still went off shorter).
What time are you normally placing your bets Martin? And again if anyone agrees or disagrees with what I’ve said here it’d be useful to know.
If prices are shortening (blue on oddschecker) then I’ll jump on as quick as possible and even if that’s with a non-BOG who has the best price then I’ll take that risk. If they’re not shortening or are drifting (pink on oddschecker) then I’ll often wait, especially if it’s a big price because that’s where the difference between BSP and a drifting SP is normally greatest.
Hi Miles. Why is there no longer a comments section in the Selections and Results area?
A brief technological glitch- it seems something went wrong when I updated last night. They were back this morning.
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