How To Profit From Idiots

| August 16, 2017 | 1 Reply

One of my most regular rants is against the idiots who are incapable of perspective.

You know the type…

One weekend somebody wins a match and they’re the second coming of the Brazil 1970 side…

The very next weekend the same team loses a match and their manager is useless and should be sacked.

It’s infuriating and no doubt a symptom of the dumbed down, alarmist, culture we now live in.

Thankfully all is not lost because you know what one of the easiest ways to profit from betting is?

It’s opposing the idiots.

After all, markets are ultimately shaped by the volume of bets, not by the odds compilers and so as the opinion of idiots becomes more widely accepted, the more the odds will move in the direction of that opinion.

And if backing that opinion at those new odds represents awful value, it gives us a cracking opportunity to back the opposite outcome at what is almost certainly a good value price.

Kneejerk reactions one year on

This time last year I wrote a similar email about jumping to conclusions and it focused on a comment by Alan McInally on Soccer Saturday…

After Newcastle had lost the first two games of their (46 game) Championship season he advised everybody who backed the Geordies for promotion to “rip up their betting slips”.

I’d backed Newcastle and advised others to do the same, I also didn’t rip up my betting slip and was more than happy to collect my winnings at the end of the season as they took the Championship title and won promotion by a full nine points.

Here are some other things that happened at the start of last season:

  • Manchester United won their first three league games (final position 6th, 24 points behind the winners).
  • Manchester City won their first 10 games in all competitions (final position 3rd, 15 points behind the winners, no trophies).
  • Chelsea picked up 10 points from their first six games, good enough for 8th place (final position 1st, title winners by nine points).
  • Hull won their first two games (final position 18th, relegated by six points).

Where’s the value this season?

Now I’m certainly not saying that all of the following situations will turn around over the course of the season but here are a few knee jerkers from the first weekend, some of which have massively affected the odds:

  • Chelsea are now 8/1 to win the title after losing their opening game, that’s more than double their price pre-match (what was that about their start to the season last year?!)
  • Manchester City and Manchester United now apparently ‘have the title race between them’, despite only playing a newly promoted side and an awful West Ham so far (what was that about their respective starts to the season last year?!)
  • Huddersfield Town have gone from 4/7 for the drop to 6/5 after beating Crystal Palace (impressive sure, but what was that about Hull’s start to the season last year?!)

I’m sure you can find plenty more of your own knee jerkers to take advantage of as well – at this time of year they can be an absolute goldmine.

Alternatively, there’s still time to give the new Scottish Football Income Booster a try…

The results from the service so far have been excellent and you can guarantee that he’s one person who won’t be changing his opinion at the drop of the hat.





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Category: Betting Opinion

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  1. the truth seeker says:

    like mccains its all good

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