Guarantee A Profit On Our Ashes Bet

| December 22, 2010 | 4 Replies

A few weeks ago I tipped the Ashes to finish as a draw…

I advised you to take the 5/1 that was an offer and I remarked that it could provide us with a useful trading opportunity at a later date.

Well, that ‘later date’ may just be today.

Ultimately, it’s up to you how you play this BUT as I’m likely to be spending most of the festive period as far away from a computer as possible, I thought it sensible to run through the options now.

After all, I’m all for the whole eat, drink and be merry thing but combining said frivolities with betting can be a dangerous mix.

It’s a bit like having a bout of the beer goggles…

Only instead of waking up next to a Phil Neville lookalike, you wake up with a sore head and a considerably lighter wallet.

So, in order to avoid this scenario from becoming a reality, pick a plan of action BEFORE opening the Christmas sherry!

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Should I stay or should I go?

Now, the course of action that you take here may very well depend upon your initial stake.

If you only bet £5 for example, you may as well see the bet through…

After all, the draw is now down to a best priced 9/4 and remains a distinct possibility.

However, if your stake was significantly larger than that, I would suggest trading out now for a guaranteed profit.

To do that, head over to Betfair now and lay the draw at 3.35 with 180% of your initial stake…

So, if your stake on the draw was £10, lay the draw for £18…

If your stake was £50, lay the draw for £90…

Etc etc.

This will guarantee you a profit of roughly 80% your initial stake, regardless of what happens throughout the remainder of the series.

So, if your initial stake was £100 and you trade now, you will tie in a guaranteed £80 profit!

Men at work

While we’re enjoying turkey sandwiches and boozy truffles, Cap’n Strauss and co will be working hard to retain the Ashes.

The fourth Test gets underway in the early hours of Boxing Day morning and you may decide that you would sooner lay ‘in play’ or wait until the fifth Test (after all, a draw will still be on the cards whatever happens in Melbourne).

As I said earlier, how you play this is entirely up to you but as for me…

I’m out.

This is partly due to the fact that a profit is a profit is a profit…

But mainly because I quite fancy sitting back and enjoying the remaining Ashes Tests without the pressure of a tradable bet looming over me.

That way, when we batter the Aussies in the fourth Test, I won’t be disappointed should we go on to wrap up a 3-1 series win!

So, just to recap, in order to tie in a guaranteed 80% profit now, lay the series draw with Betfair at 3.35 with 180% of your initial stake.

If you have any questions about how to do this, email me or leave a comment below BEFORE Christmas Eve…

Once the festivities really get going you’ll do well to get a sensible word out of me!

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Category: Betting Tips

Comments (4)

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  1. jp1972 says:

    Good call, backed draw at 5.4 when advised got out earlier this week at 3.35 to almost match my stake, No point taking risk as series is delicately poised.

    Thanks again,

    jp1972

  2. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Well that’s just it jp. While it could finish as a draw, it could just as easily finish as an Aussie win or an England win.

    The odds are unlikely to change a great deal between now and the final Test, so unless you only bet with a small stake, it makes sense to lock in a profit now.

    5/1 always looked too big for the series draw and it’s proved to be a nice little trading opportunity for us.

    Cheers,
    Matt

  3. Richard Knight says:

    Matt

    Am I being stupid here?

    Surely if you backed £10 at 5/1 and then laid £18 at 9/4 your overall return should it end up a draw is £60 less £28 = £42, but if the series wasn’t drawn then your return will be £26 (i.e. £18 @ 4/9 including stake) less £28 = -£2 (granted, you’d pretty much cover your original £10 stake with a healthy profit of £32 if the draw came off).

    To more or less equalise your return, I calculate that you should be laying around £41.5 to guarantee a return of about £8.50 to your original £10 stake

  4. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Richard,

    By lay £18 I meant a stake of £18 not a liability – my fault for not making this clearer. An £18 stake at the current price results in a liabilty of about £42.

    That equates to a profit of £8 regardless of what happens in the remaining Tests.

    If it’s a win either way, we make £18 profit from our lay bet minus the initial £10 stake.

    If it’s a draw, we make £50 profit from the original bet minus the £42 liability.

    Matt

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