Review: The Evening Value Service
They say…
“Now You Too can Exploit Bookies’ Blunders with the Profit-Pulling Value Bets that have Netted £17,440 in the last six months alone!”
We say…
The latest product that my team will be taking a look at in the coming weeks is The Evening Value Service by Kieran Ward.
So, what is The Evening Value Service? Kieran Ward is offering you the opportunity to take advantage of his extensive gambling experience in horse racing.
We’ve ordered our copy and our review will be along shortly – sign up to our twitter feed to be the first to hear about it.
The price of The Evening Value Service is £97+VAT for 3 months or £37+VAT for one month. It comes advertised with a 60 day money back guarantee.
If you have any questions you can contact their support team at: support@thevalueservice.com
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Full Review
Initial Thoughts
“Ne’er cast a clout until May is out”, goes the old saying. I’m not sure what a clout is (I think it may be a form of ladies undergarment?) so I can be sure I haven’t cast one and good job too because as I sit here writing this, the temperature has dropped and it looks like rain!
Anyway, it is the first day of June tomorrow and that means the first day of my review of the Evening Value Service (hereafter referred to as EVS). I’ve been busy today reading up on the service so I thought today I would set the scene.
The selections I receive by email will include not only the necessary information such as race time, selection etc but the advised price in decimal format and the details of the bookmaker(s) offering that price according to oddschecker.com and so the first thing to remember is that “5.00″ equals 4/1 etc.
Now getting the advised price (or as near to it as possible) is crucial to the success of the system as the cornerstone of EVS is the value to be found in overpriced selections. So the first mental note I’ve made is, “will those unable or unwilling to open up a large number of bookmaker accounts (Kieran, the author of EVS, lists sixteen) still be able to find value in the service, bearing in mind Kieran claims a strike rate of 15 to 20% and quotes a longest losing run of 32?” It should be borne in mind, however, that we are promised an average of ten selections daily.
I intend, therefore, to run two banks of 100 units each. (The official advice is 1 unit level stakes from a hundred point bank). I shall run one bank using the best obtainable prices from oddschecker.com at the time I get the email and the other I shall use with a bot on simulation mode which will be placing the bets on Betfair at 5 minutes and 30 seconds before the off. (I don’t know if it’s my imagination but whenever I place win bets on Betfair I usually find there is a slight uplift in prices around that time).
So for now that’s it. I’ll be back Saturday with the stats from tomorrow evening … and if I find out myself I may even tell you what a “clout” is!
Evening Value Service – The Final Verdict
Firstly the statistics:
Excluding non-runners there were 231 selections; this is an average of 7.7 per day. There were 29 winners which equates to a strike rate of 12.55%. The average price of winning selections was 5.99 and the longest losing run was 23 selections. The bank finished down by 26.87 points (26.87%).
So how does this compare to the claims made by the the service’s architect, Kieran Ward? Well, Kieran stated at the outset that long losing runs were to be expected and quoted 32 as his longest. So we should not have been surprised by the LLR of 23 that we experienced. He did, however, predict the average strike rate to be between 15 & 20% whereas we recorded 12.55%. And he did, of course, predict a profit and not a loss of nearly 27% of bank.
So do we simply consign this service to the drawer marked “Failed Systems/Services”? Well, as with all things in life it’s not that simple.
All punters who believe “value” is the key will tell you that long losing runs are inevitable with value-seeking systems but are more than compensated for in the long run. ALL pro-punters will tell you, quite rightly, that there is no such thing as the “holy grail” and all systems/services have losing weeks and/or months and that it is the long game that we’re playing. But there is another factor that needs to be considered here which could well explain the service’s poor performance in this trial. You’ve guessed it … the weather!
I doubt that it was a coincidence that today Kieran published on his blog a short piece by “John Mac – Professional Punter and Tipster”. In his piece John Mac said this, “The results come in and the head starts shaking in disbelief. Atrocious weather combined with desperate ground has created a minefield for punters some of whom may turn their backs on the game once and for all.” He also pointed out that “Probably one of the most feared and revered tipsters of recent years, ATRs much heralded Hugh Taylor, as recently as yesterday managed to hit his 46th consecutive losing tip.”
There’s no doubt in my mind that the 7.7 selections we received each day, rather than the 10 we were promised, was down to abandoned meetings and decimated fields. Were the losses and the low strike rate down to the weather as well? Well, if you’ve blamed the weather (as I have) for your own poor performances this month then, of course, we must extend the same courtesy to Kieran Ward and believe that it is a real possibility.
So, the final verdict? Well, the only one that makes sense really … an open one. EVS should be given another chance to prove itself at some time in the future. I have to be honest and say that EVS is not for me. But then I would have said that before the review as I do not have the temperament (mentality?) to take long losing runs in my stride. But for those who are subscribing or may do so in the future, let me leave you with another statistic that may give you more confidence, if indeed it is required. Among the 231 selections and aside from the winners, there were another 74 runners that were placed. At average odds of 5.99 it would only have taken 5 of those to have won and the loss would have been eradicated. 6 and above would have seen you in profit. Be lucky.
Saturday 30th June
As this is the last evening review of Evening Value Service it is probably fitting that it ended the same way as so many others. A handful of seconds and thirds but just the one winner from a final 12 selections that only marginally mitigated the losses for the night. I’ll be writing up my final thoughts and report over the next couple of days but here are the evening’s final numbers.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -8pts; Bank closing balance 73.13pts
Friday 29th June
Quite a strange evening really: Eight selections and only two uplaced! Unfortunately though, only one winner and a loss of 3.5 points on the night.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -3.5pts; Bank c/f 81.13pts
Thursday 28th June
For those of us who’ve enjoyed a scorching hot day it’s hard to believe the reports of the terrible weather experienced by large parts of the country. I was sweltering in my home office lining up a solid “bet in running” opportunity at Newcastle when suddenly betting was suspended. Subsequent investigation revealed the story of how racing (and apparently some parts of the infrastructure) at Newcastle had been decimated. The weather was also the cause of there being only one race meeting this evening, and consequentially therefore, only three selections from EVS. The bad news continues as they did not contain a winner and so our bank was depleted by a further 3 points.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -3pts; Bank c/f 84.63pts
Wednesday 27th June
There was always a chance that tonight would be a case of “After the Lord Mayor’s show …” after the brilliant result from yesterday evening. Well, actually it wasn’t that bad – more a case of “Nice try but no cigar”. With no less than 5 seconds from the 11 selections tonight, things could have been so much better than the +0.38 of a point overall profit that came from 2 winners.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: +0.38pts; Bank c/f 87.63pts
Tuesday 26th June
As soon as Beat Route crossed the line EVS subscribers were guaranteed a profit on the night. When Billy Blade crossed the line they were guaranteed a 20 point profit and that’s what they got even though amongst the remainder of the 10 selections were 2 seconds and a third.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: +20pts; Bank c/f 87.25pts
Monday 25th June
Once again a solitary winner from 10 selections was not sufficient to stop our starting bank dropping another 4.5 points to a new all-time low.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -4.5pts; Bank c/f 67.25pts
Saturday 23rd June
A 10/1 winner added 2 points to our ailing bank tonight. The remaining 8 selections comprised 2 seconds, 1 third and 5 unplaced.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: +2pts; Bank c/f 71.75pts
Friday 22nd June
When Harry Buckle traded as low as 1.1 on Betfair (having drawn 4 to 5 lengths clear) I really thought he was going to pull the fat from the fire. Especially as his best oddschecker price at the time the selections were released was 10/1. However, it wasn’t to be and with the only winner of the evening pulling in just 2 points it means the 100 point starting bank has now hit a new low. Tonight there were 12 selections: 1 winner, 2 seconds and the remainder all unplaced.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -9pts; Bank c/f 69.75pts
Thursday 21st June
Unfortunately the EVS couldn’t build on the success of last night as the one winner from the selections this evening could not avoid an overall loss of 6.25 points. There were 11 selections this evening although one became a non-runner, leaving the 1 winner, 2 seconds and a third with the remainder unplaced.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -6.25pts; Bank c/f 78.75pts
Wednesday 20th June
Only seven selections this evening but Kieran managed to find us 2 winners totalling 13.5 points, giving us a nice profit overall this evening of 8.5 points.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: +8.5pts; Bank c/f 85pts
Tuesday 19th June
Twelve selections this evening managed to find just 1 winner with three others placed, leaving us down 6 points on the night.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -6pts; Bank c/f 76.5pts
Monday 18th June
Now, before I forget, I’ll not be around tomorrow evening to put the report up so I’ll put both tomorrow’s and Wednesday’s up late Wednesday evening. Anyway, another barren evening this evening with no winners and just 3 seconds from 9 selections resulting in a loss of 9 points.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -9pts; Bank c/f 82.5pts
Saturday 16th June
A rather skinny night’s betting tonight with just the meeting at Lingfield, from which Kieran found us six selections. 1 second, 2 thirds and three unplaced was the final tally which left us down 6 points on the night.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -6pts; Bank c/f 91.5pts
Friday 15th June
A slightly disappointing evening after the events of last night with just the one winner resulting in a loss on the evening of 4.5 points. However, I suspect subscribers to EVS are feeling a touched relieved as the winner was the last runner of the evening which saw 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 5 unplaced and 1 faller preceding it. A bit like seeing your team score an equaliser in the last minute.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -4.5pts; Bank c/f 97.5pts
Thursday 14th June
A good solid evening for the service with 4 winners producing 21.3 points to give a 13.3 points profit for the night which takes the system back into profit for the month so far. The remainder of the twelve selections included 2 seconds and a third.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: +13.3pts; Bank c/f 102pts
Wednesday 13th June
A case of deja vue tonight I’m afraid, with events strongly following the pattern of last evening. We had twelve selections that settled as follows: 1 winner, 2 seconds, 1 non-runner and 8 unplaced, resulting in a small loss.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -5pts; Bank c/f 88.7pts
Tuesday 12th June
A largely uneventful evening this evening with just 1 winner and 1 second from ten selections, finishing up with -4.3pts.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -4.3pts; Bank c/f 93.7pts
Monday 11th June
We certainly weren’t short of excitement tonight – we started with a winner, finished with a winner and sandwiched in between were the rest of our seven selections, ALL of which were placed! We finished, therefore, 7.5 points up for the evening. That’s seven selections: 2 winners, 3 seconds and 2 thirds.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: +7.5pts; Bank c/f 98pts
Saturday 9th June
A small loss of 3.3 points this evening but how different it could have been with no less than five 2nds including one at 5/1 and one at 10/1, beaten by a neck and a head respectively! In total there were 12 selections this evening producing 2 winners, 5 seconds, 1 third and 4 unplaced.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -3.3pts; Bank c/f 90.5pts
Friday 8th June 2012
Another wet and windy night with plenty of withdrawals. I think I’m beginning to get seasonal adjustment disorder in the summer! Not much to cheer us up either tonight with 12 selections producing 0 winners, 1 second (beaten by a neck), 4 third places and 7 unplaced.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -12pts; Bank c/f 93.8pts
Thursday 7th June 2012
Well, only Kieran (the author of EVS) will know whether the decimated cards and quagmire conditions or clever forward thinking and planning were responsible for a very satisfying evening but, either way, congratulations are surely due.
From eleven selections we had 3 winners, 4 seconds, 3 unplaced and 1 non-runner producing 6.8 points on the night. I should make clear, however, I have taken no account of rule 4 deductions although, without doubt there must have been a few. I also have to confess that due to having to drop my car off at the garage I was not back in time to set the Betfair bot running. However, I think EVS has already proved that holding various bookmaker accounts is an integral part of this system for one very good reason … it boosts the profits! So i think I’ll skip the comparison with Betfair odds from now on.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: +6.8pts; Bank c/f 105.8pts
Wednesday 6th June 2012
Only a very skinny couple of meetings this evening so, not surprisingly, just 5 selections from EVS, all losing unfortunately.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -5pts; Bank c/f 99pts
At Betfair prices at bot placement 5mins 30secs before the off: -5pts; Bank c/f 92.64pts
Saturday 2nd June 2012
A much better night for the service tonight with two consecutive winners and so nearly a third. Hathamore and Rathnaroughy obliged at early odds of 14/1 and 10/1 respectively with Mike Towey (7/2) missing out by 3/4 of a length.
In all we had 12 selections tonight that finished as follows: 2 winners, 1 second, 8 unplaced and 1 non-runner.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: +15pts; Bank c/f 104pts
At Betfair prices at bot placement 5mins 30secs before the off: +8.64pts; Bank c/f 97.64pts
Friday 1st June 2012
An unlucky start to the review for EVS with no less than 3 very close seconds out of 6 placed horses but, unfortunately, no winners.
We had 11 selections that finished as follows: 0 winners; 6 placed; 5 unplaced.
Todays P/L:
At best oddschecker prices on receipt of selections: -11pts; Bank c/f 89pts
At Betfair prices at bot placement 5mins 30secs before the off: -11pts; Bank c/f 89pts
(PS: I still don’t know what a clout is although my wife often promises me one?)
Category: Betting System Reviews
Here we go Adrian
You may have heard the old saying ‘Ne’er cast a clout till May be out’. It’s been in use since at least the 18th century. A clout is an old word for a piece of clothing.
Some people think ‘May’ refers to the month but others take it to mean the May flower or hawthorn. The tree flowers in late April or early May.
In other words, the old saying means don’t take your warm clothes off until the May blossom is out because cold weather can return during the spring months which is what is happening at the moment.
I also started on June 1st as a subscriber and have several observations/queries on this service.
1) It seems rarely possible to obtain the quoted prices no matter how quickly after receiving the e-mail one acts. Even so, in general, there are a surprising number of attractive prices.
2)The service is producing a high rate of placed horses often at odds better than 6.0 which has tempted me to go for each way multiples with mixed results so far and a much increased total stake. I’m coming to the conclusion that purely straight win bets on prices under 6.0 and single e.w. bets on higher ones might be the answer as it seems an awful waste not to capitalise on the high rate of 2nds and 3rds.
4) Am totally confused as to the best course of action when there are two, or even sometimes three selections for the same race.
I would greatly value your advice and thank you for the high standard of info and entertainment in you Betting Rant.
Best regards,
David Nokes.
I have subscribed for a week and it seems a lot of the runners are getting close with quite a few good priced winners.Am only using a couple of bookies at the moment but will open more.Unfortunately my e-mail wasn’t working last night and there was a 25/1 winner in the Of Interest bit at the end !!!
Hi Dennis. Thanks for the information about the origin of the old saying and the definition of a “clout”. Seems that my belief that it was a lady’s undergarment was just my imagination then. I’m sure Freud would make something of that! Anyway, the next time my wife says she’s going to give me a clout it seems I may end up with a new Ben Sherman.
To more serious matters David. Because I am paper-trading I don’t have any experience of actually trying to place the bets at the quoted prices. All I can do is check with oddschecker to see whether or not there is any disparity between the prices advised and those apparently available. I have to say that my experience has been that almost without exception the advised prices are quoted by oddschecker in at least one instance. I do accept, however, that in the time it takes to place the bets it may well be that they have shortened. Regarding the rest of your comments and observations, I’m sure you appreciate that I am not in a position to advise on these matters but I’m equally sure Kieran would be pleased to assist you with your observations and thoughts.
Kevin, thank you for your post and I’m sorry you missed out on that big-priced winner. Just for the record I would point out, however, that I am only recording the actual system bets.
Thanks to you all for your interest.
Hi Adrian,
I just thought I’d chip in, because I have been using this service since the back end of last year, when Keiran first introduced it off the back of another service he runs & his blog.
On the subject of prices, I’ve noticed that prices often do change pretty quickly after the email arrives, but people seem to be “sequential” beasts at heart, so you can usually get the prices lower down the list OK (especially if you place the bets in reverse chronological order, it’s just the ones at the top you need to be quick on.
As to the winners v e/w debate, I’d also noticed that there were a lot of placed horses so, after a period of making an overall loss on just backing the selection to win, I did indeed change to David’s suggestion of mixing win bets with e/w bets where the price allows. This has led me to be in profit, although not spectacularly. If I have time (unlikely) I will go back & see what the difference would have been if I’d have carried on using the win only approach over this period. I did have a brief email exchange with Kieran earlier this year about this & he accepted that it might be sensible to adopt the e/w approach, but obviously it would reduce winnings on the winners which (as we know) are often at very good odds, & his recommendation was to stick with the win bets only. So I would underline the fact here that I am going against his advice.
There was also a comment about the “of interest” section as well. I have started to put a small e/w bet on these too, although they fall outside of the price range that Kieran recommends. I did this after missing out on a spectacular winner earlier in the year which resulted in much gnashing of teeth. Clearly, the strike rate for these is much lower, but the prices are much higher – they are few & far between, so too early to draw much in the way of conclusions about this at present.
Finally, I would like to comment on Kieran’s customer service, which I think is excellent. He is always ready to respond to queries, explain things clearly etc. In addition, he has done some stuff voluntarily for the “early adopter” group which have been well above & beyond the normal – totally unprompted. I won;t go into detail here, because I think that is for him to make public if he wishes, but in its own small way it was simply a very impressive & generous gesture, the like of which I have never come across before with any publisher of any product.
I’ll shut up now.
Having said I’d shut up, here I am again!
I decided to set aside the time to just go back & check whether or not the e/w backing was winning out over the win only backing.
A few things to remember…
- I’ve only switched to e/w backing since the end of April, so just over a month
- I won’t have got on every bet notified, for various reasons like not being in at the time the email came etc, the most notable being a week’s holiday
- I won’t always have got on at the notified bookie, principally the Stan James ones (they shut my account for no apparent reason – I certainly wasn’t making a fortune with them!)
- I won’t have always got on at the notified price either
- My figures do take into account Rule 4. Note that no bets were on commission charging exchanges
- Staking is using a percentage of bank, adjusted daily. A point is based on the initial stake
So, over this period, using the win only approach resulted in a loss of a tad under 7pts. Using the e/w method gives me a profit of just under 10 pts
Probably too short a time to make a complete recommendation, but I thought you might be interested to know. I’m going to carry on with the e/w plan at present & see how it pans out.
I promise I really will shut up now!
Hi Pete and thanks for a really useful couple of posts. I’m sure these will be of much interest to fellow EVS subscribers and in particular to David (above). Thanks again.
Have asked for a refund on my subscription ! Thought about it at weekend and the difference between profit/loss is too close.Advertised profit is £17000 but to £100 level stakes getting every winner at the stated price.Thats 170 points profit in 6 months,which is approx 6.5 points profit per week,or just over 1 point profit per day.That’s not bad,just over £100 a day.Only problem is if the price you get on a winner is less than the price in the e-mail you have no chance of making money.For example with only 1 point profit per day you only need a price to move from say 10/1 to 9/1 before you get a bet on and profit gone !!! With maybe 12 selections some days you may need to spread the bets between 5 or 6 bookies,which means you have to be extremely quick reading e-mail,log in to bookies,get to racing page,course,race,selection and place bet,and then to next bookie.
Not saying it won’t make a profit but profit/loss odds are too short for me !!!
Hi Kevin. Thanks for your comments. It would be good to hear from other subscribers. I will, of course, need to reserve my comments until the end of the review. I’m sure you will understand that.
I was a subscriber to EVS for most of June, I encountered a losing run of 40 and the posted prices difficult to acheive. One winner was 25/1, and early price was 40/1 though as posted by Kieran. The last week of subscribing was a very poor week in terms of results, and psychologically did me in. I can imagine better runs with that service, but it wasn’t for me. I’m glad I paper traded, a loss overall.
Impressed with Kieran though, he was very responsive by email, and the refund was almost instant. I would look at his other products given the chance.
Hi Matt,
Cast ne`er a clout, it is an old Lancashire expression meaning `do not cast aside any outer clothing before the end of the month of May`or you would likely catch a period of bad weather, ever so apt this year, clouts are clothes, keep them on lad
happy to help, tha knows, Lanky spokkun ere.
Regards
Bob Grimes
I found the evening value service very poor indeed, unobtainable prices, long losing runs, not for me, cant see how this gets any positive reviews – jay