Cash In With These Football League Tips

| June 1, 2011 | 9 Replies

You should all know by now that I like little more than cashing in on upward momentum…

The premise couldn’t be simpler – spot a horse, player or team in form and back them!

That’s exactly what we did with Novak Djokovic and, having reached the semi finals of the French Open at a relative stroll, our 9/5 shot is now odds on to get the job done.

Today, I want to back two teams to continue their upward momentum in the Football League…

Leeds United and AFC Wimbledon.

The former are now just one step away from a return to Premier League football and should be backed for promotion from the Championship at 11/2 with or Sky Bet

And the latter have soared into League Two and should be supported in their bid for back to back promotions at 5/1 with Coral.

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You can’t keep a bad dog down

I’m loathe to call Leeds a ‘good’ dog but in this case the old adage has held firm – Leeds are on the up.

Let’s face it, we’ve all seen it coming (even if we choose to look the other way at times) and, seven years after their relegation from the top flight, the Elland Road outfit are poised for a comeback.

The fact is, Leeds are simply too big a club to remain in the lower leagues for long and ever since their lowest point (administration and relegation to League One in 2007), it’s been a case of when rather than if.

Well, I think that ‘when’ may just be 2012.

They have one of the league’s best managers in Simon Grayson, they have a strong squad and they just missed out on the play offs in their first season back in the Championship.

And with attendances averaging over 27,000 and a proven, if slightly mental owner in ‘cuddly’ Ken Bates, they have everything in place to build on last season’s success.

11/2 for promotion is a crazy price when you consider that West Ham (a club on the verge of total meltdown) are as short as 7/4 and it should be snapped up today.

The best price is currently available with and Sky Bet, while Coral are next best at 5/1.

A phoenix from the flames

While Leeds’ revival always looked inevitable, the story of Wimbledon is a true phoenix from the flames tale.

When their club was effectively stolen from them to become the MK Dons in 2002, the Wimbledon fans didn’t take it lying down, instead forming a new team by the name of AFC Wimbledon.

Just like the original Dons, AFC have climbed the league pyramid at a remarkable pace, taking just nine years to get back into the football league proper and they’re not finished yet.

It may seem surprising, given the sharp distinction between League Two and the Conference but newly promoted sides actually have an excellent record in English football’s fourth tier.

Just this season, Stevenage (the previous year’s Conference champions), won promotion from League Two, while Exeter City also won back to back promotions between 2007 and 2009.

Like Leeds, AFC Wimbledon have a strong support and with a couple of very handy players on their books, including last year’s top scorer Danny Kedwell, they’ll fancy their chances of more success this term.

Coral’s offer of 5/1 is more than fair and if you’re feeling fruity you could even combine the bet in a double with our Leeds selection for a potential mega money payout.

My advice…

Back Leeds to be promoted from the Championship at 11/2 with or Sky Bet

Back AFC Wimbledon to be promoted from League Two at 5/1 with Coral

And have a cheeky half point double on both with Coral at combined odds of 35/1.

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Comments (9)

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  1. Pete says:

    Matt,

    Interesting thoughts as always. I’ll start with a declaration – I’m a lifelong Leeds fan. This makes it heartwarming to hear something positive about them for a change, so thanks!

    Not entirely convinced about their chances of going up next year though. You’re right that they have one of the best young managers around – one of a crop of new managers who are a breath of fresh air after all the self-seeking claptrap you hear from “high profile” premiership managers these days. However…

    Last season was a pleasant surprise. I was hoping for a top half finish, so the end result was excellent, although I never really believed they would make it to the play offs. The reason is the “elephant in the room” – defence. A lot was made of them being one of the top scorers in the league, which was true & great to see – we all love seeing goals & good attacking play. But when you consider they ended with a goal difference of just 11, that tells its own tale. There were games where there was a collective lack of the necessary concentration & they melted like butter. It’s all very well doing the double over QPR, but there are more teams in the league like Preston than QPR … & we all know what happened there! Letting slip a 4-1 lead at home to lose 6-4 to a team that was subsequently relegated is poor by anyone’s standards. There were plenty of other (less spectacular) examples of that sort of defending.

    If you add to this the fact that 3 senior players have either left already or are pretty certain to leave – including the very influential Kilkenny, plus Johnson who contributes valuable goals from midfield, & I don’t think it’s clear cut. I might still have a punt, but perhaps wait until I see if any influential players come in.

    Ta,

  2. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Pete,

    Cheers for the feedback. I guess my feeling here is that a club of Leeds stature will always be able to attract decent new players (relative to the level they’re playing at of course). I mean it wasn’t so long ago that Beckford left and yet you were still the top scorers in the league.

    The defence is undoubtedly an issue but one that I think Grayson will put right and while there are obviously no guarantees I think 11/2 represents really good value in comparison to most of the other realistic contenders.

    Also, going back to the defence, if Blackpool can go up with their defence anybody can!!

    Oh and by the way RE Djoko, I’m going to stick with him but if you do want to hedge I’d back Nadal now as I fully expect him to breeze past Murray.

    Matt

  3. Wayne says:

    Hi Pete/Matt

    As a Bradford City fan I hope Pete is correct and you dont get promoted. However as a Bradford fan we havent had anything to shout about since 2001 so im probably not the best to comment but Leeds is one bet I wont be on. My picks would be either Forest at 4s or Leicester for promotion at 2/1

  4. Pete says:

    Good points Matt, & I hope you’re right.

    Off at a tangent, I was never really a great admirer of Beckford, & always thought he owed a lot to the work of Becchio & was in some ways holding him back. To be fair though, I never thought Beckford would cut it in the Premiership, but he’s scored a few goals, so good luck to him.

    The 11/2 on Leeds (although that’s gone now), is a good price, I suppose, but the Championship is always a very hard league to predict. Almost got it this year with taking Reading for promotion, but no joy there. No joy in League 1 with Southampton to win it either, so maybe I should give up on that type of bet!

  5. Pete says:

    Well, whaddya know? Bet365 just put the prices on Leeds & AFC Wimbledon out to 7.00. So If anyone was umming & ahhing, perhpas that will make up your mind.

  6. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Good shout Pete.

    I did notice when I was researching the tips that not many bookies had their prices up (and that’s still the case), so it may pay to be a wee bit patient with these two.

  7. petewins57 says:

    Matt,

    Re the comments above on defence, I see we now don’t even have a goalie to our name! Surely that’s taking optimism too far?

    Must admit I’m starting to get a feeling about Leicester at 7/1. A longer season last year & they might have squeezed into the playoffs – definitely on the up. I always thought the FA were far too quick & lily-livered (no change there then) when they got rid of Sven. Didn’t make sense at all to me.

    You can get 20s on Leeds now I see. Mind you, the best price you can get on West Ham is 11/2! To WIN it! Madness!

    Pete

  8. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    I think Leeds were always around 20/1 to win it – this bet is to go up remember – but they’ll certainly need someone to fill the gap if Schmeichel goes.

    On the subject of Leciester, I’ve always rated Sven and I’m sure they’ll be there or thereabouts. I think there was an argument for him leaving England on the basis that he’d had three major tournaments without making the semis but his treatement by Man City was ridiculous as he was doing a good job there.

  9. petewins57 says:

    Yeah, sure – I think the odds on promotion have gone out slightly. Schmeichel went today I think? And Shane Higgs has already gone. Perhaps we’ll adopt a revolutionary ice hockey style “no goalie” formation!

    On Sven, yes no semis – but did we have good enough players to make the semis? Never was convinced myself, though he did also have a bit of bad luck with injuries at key times. At least there never seemed to be any doubts we’d actually get to the tournament finals! I think I’m right in saying he left just after qualifying with 2 matches to go – the first time anyone had done that in … er … a very long time.

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