The Best 40/1 Bet I’ve Ever Seen

| June 16, 2017 | Reply

Back in February I wrote this:

Today I’ve come across two cracking pieces of betting value…

The first is the incredible 70/1 (Betfair Sportsbook) on Floyd Mayweather knocking out Conor McGregor in the first round of the boxing match that has supposedly been agreed today.

As good a MMA fighter as McGregor is he is not a boxer and, as a boxing expert I know put it:

“Oh yeah, the whole notion is ridiculous, the reality is McGregor wouldn’t even be able to beat the current British Champ let alone the best boxer in the whole world!

“It’s all about ££££££ but it will be fun while it lasts.”

Of course it might not end quite as early as the first round which is why I’ll likely also have some on the 45/1 round two, 35/1 round three and 25/1 round four…

As far as I’m concerned that’s a fantastic value ‘Dutch’.

The only issue with the bet back then was that, although speculation was rife, the fight could have been mere pie in the sky so there was a bit more risk in those prices…

However, yesterday it was made official and the contest is now all set to take place on August 27th.

“He is a hopeless boxer”

Not my words but the words of respected boxing journalist Steve Bunce, who said this of McGregor:

“This will be an absolute mismatch. McGregor is a terrific mixed martial artist, a sensational grappler, sensational at all of these things in five-minute rounds – but what he’s absolutely hopeless at – and every now and again we see glimpses of it – is boxing.

“That’s when you have two feet on the ground, one of your hands is up somewhere near your chin and you are using your other hand as a jab. When he boxes, when he tries to box, whether that’s in a gymnasium or a little break in a mixed martial arts fight, he is hopeless.”

Then there’s this from former two weight world champion Carl Frampton:

“McGregor will do well to lay a glove on Mayweather”

And this from boxing legend Oscar De La Hoya:

“If you thought Mayweather/Pacquiao was a black eye for our sport – a match-up between two of the best pound-for-pound fighters that simply didn’t deliver – just wait until the best boxer of a generation dismantles someone who has never boxed competitively at any level – amateur or professional.”

The donkey that’s 5/1 to beat a thoroughbred

In the past when I’ve been explaining betting value I’ve often pointed out that odds on can be great value if the contest is a genuine mismatch.

I’ve used the example of a donkey lining up against a thoroughbred racehorse – even if the donkey was 100/1 and the racehorse 1/100, you should still back the racehorse as barring the racehorse’s legs falling off it WILL beat the donkey.

This fight is by all accounts not too dissimilar to that imaginary contest and yet the donkey in this case is just 5/1 to win… 5/1!!!

If you take that price you want locking up.

Happily for the sane bettor, McGregor’s bizarrely short odds (no doubt as a consequence of over enthusiastic UFC fans) mean that there is some fantastic value to be had backing Floyd.

He’s an excellent 17/20 (188Bet) to win by KO, TKO or disqualification for example but my preference is something a bit tastier…

I will be backing Mayweather to win in round one at 40/1 (SkyBet), round two at 33/1 (Winner) and round three at 25/1 (SkyBet)…

As far as I’m concerned the only way it goes past the third round is if Mayweather deliberately prolongs the fight to make it more entertaining – not beyond the realms of possibility but given he’ll have already been paid it’s hard to see why he would bother.

That small worry aside I genuinely don’t think you’ll see a better value long shot than this, perhaps ever, but certainly not for a heck of a long time…

40/1 for a racehorse to batter a donkey… shut up and take my money!!





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Category: Betting Advice, Betting Tips

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