Ante-Post Progress And A Top Tennis Tip

| May 17, 2011 | 8 Replies

A massive part of profitable betting is finding value and at the Betting Rant we’ve managed to achieve that time and time again.

The latest spot of ‘value hunting’ involved a bet on Liverpool to win next year’s Premier League title at 16/1 and guess what?

We can already trade out of the bet to lock in a profit!

The Reds are now available to lay at just 12 on Betfair which means that we can either lock in a 35% profit or a no lose bet at effective odds of 5/1.

However, I don’t want to trade out just yet.

With some big money signings likely to pitch up at Anfield in the coming months I want to wait a little while before we show our hand…

Single figure odds are in my crosshairs and I’ll be gunning for them later this summer!

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Two weeks in Paris

While recovering from a hangover on Sunday afternoon, I flicked on the tele and stumbled across an old episode of Michael Barrymore’s Strike It Lucky…

On the show were a pair of doddery 70-somethings (I’m not being ageist, they were the very definition of doddery) and, unsurprisingly, they didn’t do too well.

In fact, all they managed to win were a microwave and a mountain bike…

I know, I know, I laughed too.

But, Michael being Michael, he took pity on them and awarded them two weeks in Paris to go with their other ‘prizes’.

It got me thinking…

Firstly, the quality of game shows has really plummeted of late – where are the mountain biking OAPs on Deal or no Deal?!

Secondly, can we bring Michael Barrymore back please?

I know there was that whole ‘incident’ but who hasn’t hosted a party that got a little out of hand…

And thirdly (and it has to be said, more importantly), it’s the French Open next week isn’t it?

Well, to my mind there’s only one player we should be backing and I’m amazed that he’s still available at odds against…

Take advantage and get on Novak Djokovic to win the French Open at 9/5 with Betfair or 13/8 with Stan James in their enhanced ‘win only’ market.

A two horse race

This tournament looks to be all about two players – Djokovic and Rafa Nadal.

Roger Federer is fading fast…

Andy Murray is stronger on other surfaces and has a mental block when it comes to Grand Slam finals…

And nobody else is good enough.

Now, up until this season I wouldn’t have dreamt of opposing Nadal on clay, with the Spaniard nigh on unbeatable on this surface.

However, momentum is a funny thing and having finally lost a match on the red stuff to Djokovic last month, Rafa only went and lost to him again in the final of the Rome Masters.

What’s more, it was a relatively comfortable 6-4, 6-4 affair.

Add to that the fact that Djokovic is on a ludicrously good run, winning every single one of his 37 matches this season…

Yes, you read that right… Every. Single. One.

And Novak really should be at least a joint favourite for this tournament.

The fact that he isn’t is great news for us and while it may seem skinny compared to our usual bets, I’m all for backing the silky Serb at anything bigger than 6/4.

The best prices are currently at Betfair (9/5) and Stan James in their enhanced ‘win only’ market at 13/8.

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Category: Betting Tips

Comments (8)

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  1. bo quah says:

    hello Matt got your system on Monday 16 May, try it for first time on Tuesday using WBX got in early the back/lay box was empty until the very last minute when all numbers start to scrambling in i stumble in before i know it the race was over, £1.90 landed in my account second round again right to the last minute every one scramble in i went in fast try to punch the number in then the screen flash suspended and close £30 down, try to get in early but no bet was match, after a few more try din’t manage to win back the cash. we are all betters if we win its a bonus if we lose there go’s our hard earn cash so we should have all the time in the world to think it over not going in so fast as if we not losing our cash fast enough. This system is for the know how and fast, its to fast for me so i like to cancel my order please sorry Matt.

    p.s i prefer horses and other sport as it give more time

  2. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Bo,

    Can you email the following address please and I’ll sort out a refund:

    bettingrant@agorapub.co.uk

    On another note, it should be said that WBX isn’t really the best place to go for that particular system. I would use Betfair as there is more liquidity and therefore more time to place your bets.

    Thanks,
    Matt

  3. Pete says:

    Hi Matt,

    Are you looking at laying the Novak bet at all? Looks like even his opponents don’t want to face him these days!

    Pete
    p.s. The TopBat system rolls on – I made a hash up on the England v Sri Lanka 1st test and accidentally bet on top scorers for the MATCH, rather than the series. Happily I spotted the error and got my series bets on … but the match bet came through with Trott anyway!

  4. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Pete,

    I’m keeping an eye on it but I’m going to wait for Nadal to play Soderling first as I can see Rafa losing that one. If that does prove to be the case then Novak’s odds will fall further, so I’ll let you know this evening/tomorrow morning what the plan is.

    Matt

  5. Jim says:

    Hi Matt and Sports Alert,
    Ante-post betting is a system that I prefer because there are more options available and since the bets can be over a duration of a season, much of the luck element in single matches are eliminated. Betting is about finding value and it is easier to find value in long range bets. Downsides include the lost interest on large sums placed which will inevitably accrue over the season and the opportunity cost of all the capital placed. £10,000 is £400 if a bet is over 6 months.
    The Liverpool bet at 14/1 is excellent in my opinion. Consider at start of the Tennis year, Na Li to reach the final of Australia was 35/1 and since she is severely under-estimated, and again 16/1 could be had for her to reach the final of Roland Garros. Even Jensen Button was 85’s to win this year’s F1.
    One of the greatest advantages of Ante-posts is that it significantly reduces the number of bets placed over the season. In my first 3 years of betting I spend considerable amount of time placing and tracking bets. I have records of all the systems that I run and follow and the profits are significantly better the less one trades. 20 hours per week spent analysing and operating betting systems means a profit of over £6,000 is required otherwise, it would be materially better to work in Tesco’s
    It seems over trading or over betting can lower profits. It may not sound exciting if there is no non-stop betting action but making profits is often mechanical and regular. Its about probalility. (JMW 01/06/2011)

  6. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Jim,

    Wise words indeed!

    The hardest part of betting is undoubtedly discipline and while I fully believe that you can have fun AND make money, you do have to be selective.

    The only real downside with ante-post is the fact that you have to wait such a long time to claim any winnings but providing you bear that in mind before placing the bets they can offer extraordinary value.

    The Liverpool bet is a case in point. The chances are they won’t win the league but with a few decent signings and/or a strong start to the season I fully expect the 16/1 that we took to halve – if that proves to be the case then we’ll be in a great position to profit and the risk will have been minimal.

    Regards,
    Matt

  7. Ghantoo says:

    Hi Matt,
    Did you tradeout your Liverpool ante-post bet ?
    Liverpool is currently offered @ 750/1 to win premier league title!

    Regards,
    Ghantoo

  8. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Ghantoo,

    Unfortunately not. One that got away there I’m afraid!

    They were around 10-12/1 at some point so I could have locked in a no lose bet but choose not to. Never mind.

    Matt

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