A Play Off Trade And An Ante-Post Opportunity

| May 10, 2011 | 5 Replies

A couple of weeks back I advised a bet on Nottingham Forest to win promotion to the Premiership at 6/1.

As expected, Forest have qualified for the play offs and that price has now been halved to 3/1.

Well, as you’ll know, that gives us an opportunity to lock in a profit and you can do that right now by laying them at 4.2 with Betfair

However, I still think that there’s some mileage left in this bet and so I want to take a different and hopefully, more profitable, approach.

The way I see it, the main threat to our bet are Reading – a team that have ended the season strongly and have regularly excelled in cup competitions under manager Brian McDermott.

The Royals take on prize chokers Cardiff in the semi-final and I can see them doing the business there, with Forest beating Swansea in the other semi.

Therefore, I am going to advise a bet on Reading to be promoted at 4.2 with Betfair or 3/1 with Sky Bet.

If Nottingham Forest go up, we’ll still make a five point profit and if Reading go up we’ll make two points of profit.

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Early bird profits

The early bird catches the worm, the old saying goes and whichever way you look at it, it’s true.

Get to the sale early and you’ve more chance of picking up a bargain…

Get to work early and you’ve more chance of impressing the boss and getting that promotion…

Get in and out of the New Den early on a Saturday and you’ve less chance of getting your head kicked in.

The same principle applies to sports betting because while backing ante-post won’t guarantee a winner, it will almost certainly guarantee a spot of value.

Quite simply, it’s never too early to attack an ante-post market and that’s exactly why I’ve been keeping a keen eye on the Premier League title market for next season.

And guess what?

I’ve spotted a cracking bit of value already – a bit of value that really should result in a profit opportunity even before a ball has been kicked.

The bet…

Head over to Paddy Power or William HillWilliam Hill Sports and back Liverpool to win the 2011/12 Premier League title at 16/1.

Value, value everywhere

Let’s take a look at the current ante-post market for the 2011-12 Premier League title…

Man United: 2/1 (William HillWilliam Hill Sports)
Chelsea: 11/4 ()
Man City: 4/1 (take your pick)
Arsenal: 6/1 (Paddy Power)
Liverpool: 16/1 (Paddy Power)
Tottenham: 40/1 (Paddy Power)

Now, looking at those prices, you could probably make a case for backing each and every one…

Well, apart from Tottenham obviously…

And, aside from that exception, you would probably have an opportunity to lay off each and every one for a profit between now and January.

It’s an unfortunate fact of life that Man United will be there or thereabouts.

2/1 may look short now but once the pretenders start to fall away and the league starts to take shape it will doubtless fall further.

Chelsea started last season like a house on fire and after the first few weeks some bookies must have been tempted to take the PR and pay out early.

A repeat performance and 11/4 will look tastier than a Nanny Pat sausage plait.

Man City are a tricky one…

My heart says they don’t have the pedigree but my head says that money really can buy you love (or in this case the Premier League title).

4/1 looks a bit short to me but if they spend another £100million and the players gel, it’ll be a snip.

And poor, dear, Arsenal

Well, they may be flakier than a cheap sausage roll but Wenger has at least made them consistent.

An average start, followed by a strong winter, prior to a spring collapse is the order of the day here and if you time it right, 6/1 could see you entering 2012 on a high.

But for me, the best bet of them all are Liverpool at 16/1.

This is a side that are on the up both on and off the pitch and the latter could prove to be just as important for this bet as the former.

You see, the Reds new owners have already proved that they aren’t afraid to dip into their pockets, after shelling out the best part of £60million on two new players in January.

What’s more, all the noise coming from Anfield is that they’re due to embark on another spending spree in the summer.

Now, combine that with the inevitable instalment of Kop idol ‘King’ Kenny Dalglish as manager and what is actually a pretty decent spine to the first team…

Reina, Carragher, Agger, Meireles, Gerrard, Suarez, Carroll…

And Liverpool may just be all the rage in the pre-season title market.

I can easily see them starting the season an 8/1 chance and at that price (and having taken the 16/1) we’ll be able to lay to lock in a profit or a no lose bet.

So, back Liverpool to win the 2011/12 Premier League title at 16/1 with William HillWilliam Hill Sports or Paddy Power and you could net some early bird profits of your very own.

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Comments (5)

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  1. david says:

    Hi Matt,
    I have just placed your recommended bet Liverpool 16/1 2011/12 winners and it has already dropped to 14/1 so I had it e/w

  2. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi David,

    Yeah, it’s a best priced 14/1 now and as short as 8/1 at Sky Bet. What place terms did you get?

    Matt

  3. peter says:

    just had major problems trying to get my ten free bet with totesport, having backed notts forest like you advised. was told on 5 times was entitled to money before they finally relented. will definatetely not be betting with these guys again no matter how good their deals are. customer service was attrocious.

  4. Matt Houghton Matt Houghton says:

    Hi Peter,

    Thanks for letting us know. What reason did they give for not handing over the free bet at first?

    I very rarely use them but I seem to remember it being a pretty straightforward offer, so I’m not sure how they’ve managed to mess it up!

    Regards,
    Matt

  5. peter says:

    Hi, they said i didnt come through one of their affiliated sites. The lady i spoke to kept on telling me i was wrong before checking all options. really annoying me especially when it was only ten pounds, making me feel as if i was grovelling for the money.

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